expectations

According to Gate market data, the dollar is heading towards its best week in two months, following U.S. data showing rising inflation pressures that may force the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate hikes within the next year. The dollar index DXY has risen more than 1% this week, expected to achieve its best single-week performance since mid-March. Due to two consecutive inflation data releases this week exceeding expectations, the U.S. Treasury market has been impacted, prompting a Federal Reserve official to state that the U.S. "is facing an inflation problem."

According to BIT analysis, if Bitcoin could keep up with the Nasdaq's rise, the current price should be close to $140,000. The relative underperformance of Bitcoin may be related to the resurgence of inflation since the third quarter of 2025. Overall, Bitcoin had generally followed the fluctuations of the Nasdaq, but since October 2025, the divergence between the two has begun to widen significantly. At that time, the latest CPI reading had risen back to 3%, which is 100 basis points above the Federal Reserve's target, and the interest rate market also began to gradually retract some pricing for rate cuts in 2026. This is precisely the source of the pressure on Bitcoin; its upward logic relies on expectations of Federal Reserve easing, and once the market starts to retract pricing for rate cuts, performance often comes under pressure. Subsequently, this logic continued to influence Bitcoin's trend.Stocks, on the other hand, are completely different. As long as the market still views inflation as mild and temporary, a rise in inflation can actually be beneficial for stocks: even if sales do not increase significantly, it can boost nominal corporate income, reduce real debt burdens, and enhance the attractiveness of stocks as a hedge against purchasing power. The latest U.S. inflation data seems to have caught some market participants off guard, although the agency's model had previously indicated that price pressures might rise again. The current key question is whether this round of inflation expectation repricing will weaken the ongoing positive fundamentals for Bitcoin; and how investors should adjust their positions in this context.

According to Jinshi reports, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 9 was 211,000, exceeding the market expectation of 205,000. The previous value was revised from 200,000 to 199,000.

According to Jinshi reports, Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Michael Wan stated that after the U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, the yen became the most pressured currency in the process of the dollar strengthening again. The USD/JPY exchange rate fell to around 157.88, approaching the high set on May 6.The market expects the Federal Reserve to further tighten policies, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to its highest level since July of last year, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5%.

According to QCP Capital analysis, BTC is currently consolidating around $82,000, close to the 200-day moving average, with $80,000 support holding steady, but the $84,000 resistance above has not yet been broken. The core CPI for April year-on-year is 2.8%, slightly above expectations, mainly driven by housing costs (owner's equivalent rent), while core goods inflation remains sluggish, and the transmission of tariffs has not yet fully spread.Core services (excluding housing) inflation has accelerated for three consecutive months, combined with China's PPI turning positive for the first time in 41 months, the global commodity deflation dividend may be fading, and the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has been raised further. The market is currently focused on three major catalysts: the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing (involving trade, rare earths, and Middle East issues), the release of PPI data, and the Senate Banking Committee's review process of the CLARITY cryptocurrency regulatory bill. Before these catalysts materialize, spot prices may continue to fluctuate within a range, with volatility remaining low.

According to Gate market data, at the opening of the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.03%, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.32%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.71%. Star tech stocks generally declined, with Intel (INTC.O) down more than 4%, Qualcomm (QCOM.O) down nearly 4%, and ASML (ASML.O) and Micron Technology (MU.O) both down by 2.5%.

According to Jinshi, the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States for April was 0.6%, in line with market expectations, and the previous value was 0.9%.

According to Jinshi reports, the U.S. April seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year recorded 3.8%, the highest since May 2023, exceeding market expectations of 3.7%.

According to Jinshi News, Sarah Hammoud, a foreign exchange strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, stated that the risk is that U.S. core inflation may be higher than the market consensus due to the spillover effects of energy prices on other prices such as airfare and food. If U.S. core inflation is higher than expected, it will push up U.S. yields and the dollar exchange rate. The market generally expects that the CPI data will reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in the short term, and traders have ruled out the possibility of rate cuts this year.

As the first CEX platform to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that the overall market expectation for the "WTI Crude Oil May Price" related prediction event remains strong. Among them, the probability of WTI crude oil prices exceeding $110 is 51%, the probability of exceeding $105 is 67%, and the probability of exceeding $100 is as high as 94%. Overall, the market maintains an optimistic outlook on the short-term trend of oil prices, with funding expectations continuously leaning towards an upward direction.Gate's performance in the Polymarket partnership channel continues to lead, currently securing a spot in the top three, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and engagement depth of platform users in the prediction market. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participate in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the crypto trading ecosystem with the prediction market, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.In addition, Gate will launch the "Polymarket 100 USDT Battle God Challenge" social media event from May 11, 15:00 to May 20, 15:00 (UTC+8), where users can participate in prediction market trading with a maximum of 100 USDT and compete for the earnings leaderboard and quality content creator rewards by sharing profit reports, trading strategies, and review content. The total prize pool of the event includes 66 content reward slots and a 1,000 USDT Battle God earnings prize pool.

According to BBX data, the earnings season for cryptocurrency concept stocks concluded yesterday with two significant announcements. The core data for the stablecoin sector and mining sector has been revealed, with the following key updates:Circle Internet Group, Inc. (NYSE: $CRCL) announced its Q1 2026 earnings report via BusinessWire on May 11: total revenue and reserve income amounted to $694 million (up 20% year-over-year), below the analyst consensus expectation of approximately $715 million, a difference of about $20.75 million; GAAP EPS was $0.21, exceeding expectations by $0.03 (consensus $0.18); adjusted EBITDA was $151 million (up 24% year-over-year), with a profit margin of 53%; net profit (from continuing operations) was $55 million (down 15% year-over-year). The USDC circulation at the end of the quarter was $77 billion (up 28% year-over-year), with on-chain transaction volume reaching $21.5 trillion (up 263% year-over-year); reserve interest income was $653 million (up 17% year-over-year), with a reserve yield of 3.5% (down 66 basis points year-over-year, reflecting a decline in SOFR); the full-year 2026 guidance remains unchanged. Additionally, Circle disclosed that ARC Token completed a $222 million private pre-sale, with a fully diluted network valuation of $3 billion, and investors include institutions such as a16z crypto, Apollo, ARK Invest, BlackRock, General Catalyst, Haun Ventures, Intercontinental Exchange, IDG Capital, Janus Henderson, and Standard Chartered Ventures.MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: $MARA) announced its Q1 2026 earnings report via GlobeNewswire on May 11: revenue was $174.6 million (down 18% year-over-year, below the consensus of approximately $182.7 million); net loss was $1.3 billion (per share -$3.31, below the consensus range of -$2.20 to -$2.34), with about $1 billion stemming from non-cash accounting losses due to the decline in fair value of digital assets; during Q1, the company mined 2,247 BTC and sold 20,880 BTC during the same period; as of March 31, BTC holdings decreased to 35,303 BTC (approximately $2.4 billion); hash rate increased by 33% year-over-year to 72.2 EH/s; approximately 30% of the outstanding convertible debt (with a face value of over $1 billion) has been repaid; cash and BTC combined balance is $2.9 billion.

According to BBX data, this week the outflow channels of cryptocurrency infrastructure and the forward-looking financial reports of mining companies are advancing on two fronts, with the core dynamics as follows:Kraken (parent company Payward, Inc.) and the global payment network MoneyGram announced the establishment of a global strategic partnership through PR Newswire on May 5. Kraken users can withdraw cash exchanged for cryptocurrency in hundreds of fiat currencies at nearly 500,000 MoneyGram physical locations covering over 100 countries; initially focusing on cryptocurrency outflows, with plans to expand to local bank deposits and cross-border remittance flows; Kraken is responsible for customer identity verification, while MoneyGram provides licensed remittance services and compliance frameworks. Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi confirmed in an interview with Fortune that the company's IPO progress is "close to 80%," having previously submitted its confidential S-1 filing to the SEC. Bloomberg estimates the current valuation at approximately $13.3 billion based on a $200 million equity investment from Deutsche Börse.MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: $MARA) officially announced on ir.mara.com on May 4 that its Q1 2026 financial report will be released after the market closes on May 11, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 PM (ET); analyst consensus expects an EPS of approximately -$2.34 and revenue of about $184.2 million. As of the end of 2025, the company holds 53,822 BTC, with full-year revenue for 2025 at $907 million (up 38% year-on-year) and a hash rate of 66.4 EH/s; during Q1 2026, the price of BTC fell from about $87,000 to around $68,000, putting pressure on the mining company's total costs. The market will focus on the progress of its AI/HPC data center transformation and the rollout pace of the Starwood JV, which exceeds 1 gigawatt capacity.The U.S. Department of Labor released the April non-farm employment data on May 8, showing an increase of 115,000 jobs, nearly double the market expectation; Bitcoin maintained a range of $79,000---$80,000 after the data was released, with the market interpreting this "soft landing" signal as favorable for risk assets—an unheated job market means an increased probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates, keeping the mid-term liquidity environment for cryptocurrency stable. The monthly net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in April was approximately $2.44 billion, the strongest single month data of the year; April's monthly close rose by 16%, and if May's closing price remains above $76,000, it will confirm three consecutive months of positive monthly closes for Bitcoin, which Fundstrat founder Tom Lee defines as a "bear market ending signal."

After the U.S. Senate reached a compromise on the issue of stablecoin yields, expectations for the advancement of the cryptocurrency market structure bill have significantly improved. Industry insiders say this progress has "significantly boosted market sentiment," and the Senate Banking Committee may advance the review and vote next week.Previously, the probability of the bill passing was only about 20%–30%, but expectations have now risen to about 60%. However, ethical issues surrounding Donald Trump and his connections to cryptocurrency businesses are still seen as a key obstacle. The bill aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework at the federal level for the first time and delineate the regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC.

According to Jinshi reports, interest rate strategist Ira Jersey recently commented that the stronger-than-expected non-farm data highlights that the U.S. is still far from recession, making it difficult to see the Federal Reserve choosing to cut interest rates in this situation. Considering that the interest rate market has basically ruled out the expectation of rate cuts, it is expected that U.S. Treasury yields will not experience significant fluctuations.

According to Jinshi, the unemployment rate in the United States for April was 4.3%, consistent with market expectations and the previous value, both at 4.3%.

According to Jinshi reports, the number of private non-farm jobs in the U.S. for April was 123,000, significantly higher than the market expectation of 75,000. The previous value was revised from 186,000 to 190,000.

According to Jinshi reports, the U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000 in April, a significant decline as expected, but higher than the market expectation of an increase of 62,000.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that both the labor market and inflation expectations do not point to higher inflation.