forecast

In April, the CPI in the United States increased by 3.8% year-on-year, reaching a new high since May 2023, exceeding the market expectation of 3.7%. Previously, on May 8, Bank of America economists stated in a report to clients that due to inflationary pressures remaining above expectations and robust job growth, they have abandoned their earlier predictions of rate cuts in September and October this year, postponing the first rate cut to the second half of 2027.The previous view was based on the expectation that Trump would nominate Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, leading to a more accommodative policy. However, with changes in the economic situation, this view has shifted. The report mentioned, "We no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year." They also pointed out that multiple shock factors affecting the economy, including the war in Iran, tariffs, and the rise of artificial intelligence, have made predicting interest rate changes more difficult.

UBS stated that it has lowered its gold price forecast for the end of June to $5,200 per ounce, citing a cooling in investor demand amid increased market volatility.

According to CryptoRank data, the predicted market trading volume for the first quarter of 2026 is set to reach a record of $75 billion, with a trading volume of $44 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a month-on-month growth of approximately 70%. The market is rapidly expanding in scale within just two years and is becoming an important component of the cryptocurrency sector.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that due to the impact of oil, the overall inflation rate forecast for this year has been raised to 2.7%.

According to Jinshi Data, Goldman Sachs stated that the recent decline in gold prices is generally consistent with past trends, noting that the increase in interest rate expectations and market volatility are the main factors leading to the price drop.The co-head of the global commodities research department, Damien Courvalin, said on Wednesday, "Given our current pricing framework, this decline is not surprising." He pointed out that the rise in interest rate expectations has impacted investor demand, particularly through ETFs. Extreme market pressure can also affect gold prices, as investors facing margin calls often sell gold along with other assets.He also noted that the recent rise in gold prices has exceeded fundamental expectations, with some of the pullback reflecting "a certain degree of normalization." However, Goldman Sachs maintains its overall optimistic outlook, expecting gold prices to reach $5,400 by the end of the year. The reasoning is supported by the ongoing central bank purchases of gold as countries seek to diversify their assets (i.e., shifting towards assets with "lower political and financial risks").

JPMorgan has lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 7500 points to 7200 points, citing that the conflict in Iran has caused a surge in oil prices, which has intensified the risk of economic recession. The bank warned that the market may be underestimating the impact of rising energy costs on the economy.While investors are focused on inflation, JPMorgan believes that the greater threat is to consumer demand, which could weaken economic growth. Historically, oil prices rising by more than 30% often lead to a contraction in demand and are frequently a precursor to economic recessions. In the short term, the S&P 500 index may decline further, especially after breaking below the 200-day moving average—this is a bearish signal. If the sell-off continues, the index may find support around 6000-6200 points.Although JPMorgan still expects an economic recovery later this year supported by investments and stimulus measures, the extent of the recovery may be more limited due to ongoing geopolitical risks.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the higher GDP forecast reflects confidence in productivity.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that part of the reason for the upward revision of inflation forecasts is due to oil shocks, but it also reflects that inflation progress has not met expectations.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the median forecast for the interest rate path has not changed, but there has been a significant increase in the number of people leaning towards fewer rate cuts.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve has raised its GDP growth forecast, increased the PCE and core PCE inflation expectations for this year and next, raised the unemployment rate forecast for next year, and raised the long-term federal funds rate expectation.

According to Jin Shi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC released economic forecasts, expecting the median core PCE inflation expectations at the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2%, respectively. In contrast, the expectations in December were 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2%.

"Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos indicated that the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to remain silent this week. However, predictions force them to outline a path.Two former Fed chairs told me that they hope to avoid predicting interest rate cuts in the short term. Whether current officials will take the same stance has become the central focus of this meeting, as both hawks and doves may cling to their positions by pointing to the same shock.

According to Jinshi reports, Bank of America stated that the Federal Reserve will have to deal with another round of supply shocks—rising oil prices. In the economic forecast summary released before the March Federal Reserve meeting, overall and core inflation forecasts may be revised upward. The Bank of America report indicated that if long-term growth expectations are also revised upward, the median long-term interest rate dot plot may shift slightly higher. The bank believes that Powell may acknowledge the risk of stagflation while emphasizing a wait-and-see approach.

According to official news, the Base ecological trend prediction platform Noise has now opened the waiting list for applications.In January of this year, Noise, a tool for attention markets building a platform for prediction market-related information, announced the completion of a $7.1 million seed round financing, led by Paradigm. Previously, the company also received investment support from Figment Capital, Anagram, as well as GSR, JPEG Trading, and KaitoAI.It is reported that the Noise testnet launched its beta version last May, limited to invited users, attracting over 1,300 users who utilized social media data provided by Kaito to make predictions in an attention market tracking 14 cryptocurrency topics.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve officials stated that they will continue to raise interest rates if the objective possibility of achieving economic and price forecasts improves.

According to Jinshi Data, the U.S. January CPI data will be released today at 21:30. Various institutions have forecasted the U.S. January core CPI data as follows:U.S. January unadjusted core CPI year-on-year (previous value: +2.6%; Reuters expectation: +2.5%)Jefferies Group: +2.4%; Capital Economics: +2.4%; Dutch Bank: +2.5%; ANZ Bank: +2.5%;Danske Bank: +2.5%; Societe Generale: +2.5%; Bank of America: +2.5%; Citigroup: +2.5%;Lloyds Bank: +2.5%; Dekabank: +2.5%; Goldman Sachs: +2.5%; ING: +2.5%;Pantheon Macroeconomics: +2.5%; Scotiabank: +2.5%; Standard Chartered: +2.5%; Wells Fargo: +2.5%;Barclays Bank: +2.6%; HSBC Holdings: +2.6%; Nomura Securities: +2.6%; TD Securities: +2.6%;Morgan Stanley: +2.6%; UBS Group: +2.6%; UniCredit Bank: +2.6%; Regional Bank: +2.6%.U.S. January adjusted core CPI month-on-month (previous value: +0.2%; Reuters expectation: +0.3%)Jefferies Group: +0.2%; Capital Economics: +0.2%; Dutch Bank: +0.3%; ANZ Bank: +0.3%;Danske Bank: +0.3%; Societe Generale: +0.3%; Bank of America: +0.3%; Citigroup: +0.3%;Lloyds Bank: +0.3%; Deutsche Bank: +0.3%; Daiwa Capital: +0.3%; Dekabank: +0.3%;Goldman Sachs: +0.3%; ING: +0.3%; Mizuho Securities: +0.3%; Moody's Analytics: +0.3%;Wells Fargo: +0.3%; Pantheon Macroeconomics: +0.3%; Scotiabank: +0.3%; Standard Chartered: +0.3%;Barclays Bank: +0.4%; HSBC Holdings: +0.4%; JPMorgan Chase: +0.4%; Nomura Securities: +0.4%;Morgan Stanley: +0.4%; TD Securities: +0.4%; UBS Group: +0.4%; UniCredit Bank: +0.4%.

According to Jinshi News, TD Securities has postponed its prediction for the next Federal Reserve rate cut from March to June, still expecting a total rate cut of 75 basis points this year, bringing the terminal rate down to 3%. The agency anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis point cut in June, September, and December. TD Securities' Chief U.S. Macro Strategist Oscar Munoz stated that the anticipated policy easing is not due to a deterioration in economic conditions, but rather a result of monetary policy moving towards "normalization" as inflation gradually returns to target levels.

According to market news, Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its short-term price expectations for Solana in its latest research report, while significantly raising its long-term forecast.The bank has reduced its target price for SOL at the end of 2026 from $310 to $250, but expects it to reach $2000 by the end of 2030. The report notes that Solana's decentralized exchange activity is shifting from meme coin trading to SOL-stablecoin trading pairs, with its stablecoin turnover being 2 to 3 times faster than Ethereum, indicating different use cases; Solana's "ultra-low-cost, fast, and reliable trading model" will enable it to dominate areas that require high throughput and low transaction costs, particularly in the micropayment sector driven by AI protocols like x402.