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circle

The Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a long time, which is bearish for Bitcoin but bullish for Circle and RWA

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that in the context of rising inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve may maintain a high interest rate policy for a long time, which will have three core impacts on the cryptocurrency market. He believes that as the U.S. CPI approaches 4%, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has almost no room for interest rate cuts, and the market currently expects the first rate cut to be delayed until September 2027. Grayscale pointed out that long-term high interest rates will put pressure on "currency devaluation trades" such as Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin, like gold, is a non-yielding asset, higher real interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding dollar-denominated assets. However, it remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects and believes that regulatory benefits such as the CLARITY Act can partially offset the related pressures. In addition, it believes that a high interest rate environment will accelerate the tokenization of fixed income assets. Currently, the yields on dollar-denominated fixed income products are higher than those of most DeFi yields; for example, the USDC lending rate on Aave is about 3.6%, while the yield on short-term corporate bonds is about 4.5%. Grayscale also stated that stablecoin issuers will benefit from high interest rates. Since the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoins from paying interest to users, issuers can retain the income from reserve assets. It estimates that for every 25 basis point increase in short-term rates, Circle's revenue will increase by approximately $190 million.

Illustration of Arc 104's Web3 Business Partners: Circle Builds a "New Clearing Network" for the Stablecoin Era

The Web3 asset data platform RootData has outlined 104 partners of Arc, covering six core sectors: asset issuance, infrastructure, developer tools, trading, financial services, and payments. Compared to most public chains that first develop a developer ecosystem and then seek commercialization scenarios, Arc's path is clearly more aligned with the real financial circulation network. At the asset issuance level, stablecoin issuers such as AllUnity, BDACS, Bitso/Juno, and Stablecorp, as well as tokenized asset players like Centrifuge, Securitize, and WisdomTree have entered the scene, indicating that Arc prioritizes solving the "on-chain asset supply" issue, bringing dollars, bonds, and securities onto the chain. At the infrastructure level, partners like Blockdaemon, Chainalysis, Elliptic, QuickNode, and DRPC provide node services, compliance analysis, and on-chain data support. This means Arc is preparing for institutional funds, rather than following the typical Crypto public chain model of "growth first, compliance later." At the developer tools level, partners such as Axelar, Wormhole, Chainlink, MetaMask, Fireblocks, Privy, Alchemy, LayerZero, and TRM Labs are concentrated, essentially lowering the migration costs for institutions and developers, allowing funds, wallets, cross-chain, and compliance tools to be directly in place. At the trading level, institutions like Coinbase, Bybit, Kraken, Robinhood, Galaxy Digital, and B2C2 are responsible for secondary market liquidity and price discovery. The payment layer is heavily integrated by Visa, Mastercard, PhotonPay, Nuvei, EBANX, and Ramp. At the financial services level, firms like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, State Street, Aave, Maple Finance, Morpho, and BitGo are appearing simultaneously, indicating that Arc has begun to bridge traditional banking, on-chain lending, and custody systems. On the surface, Arc appears to be a new public chain, but from an ecological structure perspective, it will serve as the new financial infrastructure for the Circle stablecoin era, directly emphasizing USDC gas fees, sub-second final settlement, compliance privacy, and native CCTP integration, aiming to directly penetrate real capital flows and attempt to become SWIFT + Stripe + DTCC. Related compilation: Arc Web3 Partner Network Compilation (continuously updated) Cryptocurrency projects actively showcasing their partner networks have become a key way to enhance transparency and market trust. It is reported that RootData welcomes Web3 projects to claim their information and continues to track and open more project business relationship disclosure channels. The platform has continuously released multiple editions of the cryptocurrency project ecosystem map, nominating Web3 ecosystem partners for upstream clients like Visa, Mastercard, and Coinbase. If you wish to nominate your project in future ecosystem maps, please fill out the [RootData 2026 Industry Ecosystem Mapping] form to supplement your important clients and partners.

Circle Q1 revenue of $694 million was below expectations, but EPS exceeded expectations; MARA Q1 sold 20,880 BTC with a net loss of $1.3 billion

According to BBX data, the earnings season for cryptocurrency concept stocks concluded yesterday with two significant announcements. The core data for the stablecoin sector and mining sector has been revealed, with the following key updates:Circle Internet Group, Inc. (NYSE: $CRCL) announced its Q1 2026 earnings report via BusinessWire on May 11: total revenue and reserve income amounted to $694 million (up 20% year-over-year), below the analyst consensus expectation of approximately $715 million, a difference of about $20.75 million; GAAP EPS was $0.21, exceeding expectations by $0.03 (consensus $0.18); adjusted EBITDA was $151 million (up 24% year-over-year), with a profit margin of 53%; net profit (from continuing operations) was $55 million (down 15% year-over-year). The USDC circulation at the end of the quarter was $77 billion (up 28% year-over-year), with on-chain transaction volume reaching $21.5 trillion (up 263% year-over-year); reserve interest income was $653 million (up 17% year-over-year), with a reserve yield of 3.5% (down 66 basis points year-over-year, reflecting a decline in SOFR); the full-year 2026 guidance remains unchanged. Additionally, Circle disclosed that ARC Token completed a $222 million private pre-sale, with a fully diluted network valuation of $3 billion, and investors include institutions such as a16z crypto, Apollo, ARK Invest, BlackRock, General Catalyst, Haun Ventures, Intercontinental Exchange, IDG Capital, Janus Henderson, and Standard Chartered Ventures.MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: $MARA) announced its Q1 2026 earnings report via GlobeNewswire on May 11: revenue was $174.6 million (down 18% year-over-year, below the consensus of approximately $182.7 million); net loss was $1.3 billion (per share -$3.31, below the consensus range of -$2.20 to -$2.34), with about $1 billion stemming from non-cash accounting losses due to the decline in fair value of digital assets; during Q1, the company mined 2,247 BTC and sold 20,880 BTC during the same period; as of March 31, BTC holdings decreased to 35,303 BTC (approximately $2.4 billion); hash rate increased by 33% year-over-year to 72.2 EH/s; approximately 30% of the outstanding convertible debt (with a face value of over $1 billion) has been repaid; cash and BTC combined balance is $2.9 billion.
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