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It is estimated that losing the founder could reduce Nvidia's valuation by 20% to 30%.

Served at NVIDIA for 13 years, with a net worth of 1 billion dollars.

Goodbye, Jianghu.

The core creator behind this extraordinary growth has suddenly exited the stage. How NVIDIA and the entire AI industry will fill this void is what the market is eagerly watching.

Bernstein downgraded NVIDIA's rating to "in line with the market," cutting the target price in half to $200. Despite the company's strong fundamentals and highly attractive valuation, the firm believes that "there are never just two cockroaches when you find one." Coupled with uncertainties such as the vacancy of a successor, potential government investigations, and changes in supply chain commitments, negative news has not yet reached a bottom, and it advises investors to refrain from bottom-fishing and to remain on the sidelines for now.

From the S&P 500 Index to the chip supply chain in Asia, and to the on-chain market that is still trading over the weekend, Nvidia's turbulence is spilling over into the entire market.

Due to the exposure of the second extramarital affair, NVIDIA's board of directors has reportedly established an investigation committee and is preparing to remove Jensen Huang from his position; Elon Musk, Gavin Baker, Tim Sweeney, Bill Ackman, and others have publicly urged the board to exercise restraint, leaving the decision to the shareholders' vote. According to the company's articles of association, a majority of 6 votes from the 11 directors is required for dismissal.

Jensen Huang responded to the extramarital affair controversy, the "irreversible mistake" of the chip blockade against China, the $500 billion revolving financing doubts, and criticized "the model cannot be contained" as nonsense in an interview with Bloomberg Originals.

Stock Perpetual Futures and Tokenized Stock Spot

FTX's fourth anniversary of bankruptcy, creditors recovered 118%, but the liquidation team took nearly 1 billion dollars from this money: S&C approximately 249 million, Alvarez & Marsal approximately 306 million, and the bills for the first seven months exceeded 200 million dollars. The opportunity cost is even higher—Anthropic's equity was liquidated on the eve of the AI wave.

NVIDIA's board is rumored to plan to replace Jensen Huang, causing the stock price to drop nearly 10% after hours. According to the "founder premium + governance discount" model, the market will price in three tiers: $145–155, $125–135, and $110–120, corresponding to a dynamic PE compression from 30x–35x to 15x–22x.

The report believes that the progress in quantum computing is real but only incremental, and there are currently no quantum computers related to cryptography. The exposure of Bitcoin is limited to ECDSA: address reuse and static attacks on P2PK, as well as in-transit attacks with a window of about 10 minutes in the memory pool. Approximately 7.1 million BTC public keys have been exposed, of which about three-quarters are on reused addresses, which can reduce risk through migration; about 1.8 million are considered lost. Current work includes stopping address reuse, advancing SHRINCS post-quantum signatures, and reaching a consensus on the disposal of P2PK coins.

Google released its first decision model, Gemini Decision 1: it does not generate word by word, and can score up to 1000 questions with a single forward pass, with an end-to-end latency of 150 to 250 milliseconds and only $0.10 per million input tokens; it achieved first place in 7 out of 9 benchmarks, with a highest accuracy rate of 92.2%.

CoreWeave's third-quarter revenue and guidance both exceeded expectations, with a single-day stock price increase of about 25%, driving the new cloud sector up over 12%; combined with rumors of Anthropic's $1.5 trillion IPO valuation and OpenAI's quarterly revenue surpassing $10 billion for the first time, the AI computing power chain, which has been mired in return concerns, has temporarily caught its breath. Next week's NVIDIA earnings report will be the true test of this rebound.

In a 68-minute interview on the Figuring Out podcast, Ultraman reviewed key decisions such as launching ChatGPT with a 5% retention rate, betting the entire company's computing power after training GPT-4, and explained what he sees as the only fundamental principle of entrepreneurship: to create what people truly want.

November 11 Market Important Events Overview

Bitcoin has fallen below the short-term holder cost basis of $75.6K and is lagging behind the U.S. stock market, which has recovered the election day closing price. The supply of stablecoins has decreased by $14.2 billion over the past 30 days, marking the fastest contraction since June 2022, with net outflows from spot ETFs and a deeper discount on Coinbase. The near-price long leverage has basically been cleared, and wallets holding 100 to 10K BTC have started to buy. As long as the June low of $58.5K is maintained, the trend reversal since August remains valid.

In the stock market, there shouldn't be any exchange that doesn't want a piece of this cake; it's just that Upbit is still blocked by regulations and can only rely on continuously listing new coins to maintain traffic.

The scale of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in the United States has reached $111 billion, while actively managed crypto hedge funds average only $132 million. Based on the latest data from Capital Connect and frontline interviews, Binance Research analyzes the verification and distribution gap that hinders the scaling of active management.

A long-time tech veteran who is bearish on AI, Jack Selby, stated that the Anthropic IPO could mark the peak of the AI market, and after the lock-up period expires, it may trigger a chain reaction of corrections. He also pointed out that over 80% of Anthropic's revenue comes from non-recurring income and that high capital expenditures make the claim of a "trillion-dollar valuation" "extremely far-fetched." He further mentioned that if conditions allow, he would "significantly go long on Chinese AI."