cpi

Inflation data for October in the United States sends multiple warning signals. The data shows that the core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, exceeding expectations for the third consecutive month; the overall CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, also above expectations. The impact of rising energy prices is spreading to areas such as food and transportation, and service inflation remains robust, further complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation.Specifically, food prices in the U.S. rose by 0.5% month-on-month in October, with grocery prices recording the largest monthly increase since April; urban transportation service prices saw the largest monthly increase since 2020, and prices for airline tickets and delivery services also increased. Additionally, service prices excluding energy and housing rents rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while owners' equivalent rent increased by 0.3%.AI investments are bringing new cost pressures. Over the past three months, the annualized price increase for computers and peripheral devices in the U.S. reached 25%, and electricity prices rose by 0.9% month-on-month in October, marking the largest increase in six months. Morgan Stanley estimates that AI-related factors have contributed about 6 basis points to the core CPI this year, with the current impact still relatively limited, but as data center investments expand, related pressures may rise further.In terms of monetary policy, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee described the latest inflation data as approaching an alarming level. Fed Governor Waller previously stated that if the core CPI month-on-month increase reaches 0.3% or higher, the December meeting should consider raising interest rates by 50 basis points. Goldman Sachs has included a forecast for an additional 25 basis point increase in March 2027, expecting that the target range for the federal funds rate will rise to 4.25% to 4.50%. However, some economists warn that there is a lag in the transmission of energy prices, and over-reliance on current data may lead to excessive tightening of monetary policy.

The U.S. October CPI exceeded expectations for the third consecutive time. Waller stated that a rate hike of 25 basis points in December is possible, and a 50 basis point hike cannot be ruled out. U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the ten-year approaching 5%. Saxo Bank pointed out that the market has fully priced in a rate hike in December, and the dollar has rebounded strongly.

In October, the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations. After the data was released, BTC briefly fell to around $73,000, and the market began to bet on a 50 basis point rate hike in December. In response, Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the probability of a 50 basis point hike is low, and a 25 basis point increase remains the baseline scenario. The current decline is more akin to a pricing correction.There are three reasons: The Federal Reserve values the continuity of data, and historically, there are very few cases where a single month's CPI jump has changed the pace of rate hikes; a single month of exceeding expectations is insufficient to overturn the gradual path; the current inflation stickiness mainly stems from the lagged transmission of tariffs and rents, which will naturally diminish, and marginal employment is also weakening. The committee has no reason to impose aggressive tightening at the peak of transmission; the credit spread has widened from 93 basis points to 348 basis points, financial conditions have effectively tightened, and adding another 50 basis points would actively create financial stability risks.In the crypto market, funding rates have turned negative, and the open interest in perpetual contracts has decreased by nearly 20% in a week. The fear and greed index has fallen into the deep fear zone, and the clearing of leverage has been relatively sufficient, limiting the space for further short-term declines. However, an oversold situation does not mean an immediate rebound; confirmation is needed for CPI to fall in the next two months. If inflation exceeds expectations for two consecutive months and a 50 basis point hike is realized, a trend decline will begin, but currently, this scenario seems unlikely.Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

After the October CPI data exceeded expectations, Deutsche Bank included a rate hike in its forecast for January next year. Currently, the bank expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points in December, January, and March, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.50% to 4.75%.Analysts stated that considering the recent hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Waller, a 50 basis point hike in December is also a possibility, but this is still not part of the bank's baseline forecast scenario. In addition, Deutsche Bank raised its neutral rate expectations to 3.75% to 4.00%, indicating that it believes rates will remain elevated for a longer period.

Overall and core inflation rates in the U.S. for October exceeded expectations, which may keep the Federal Reserve on track for interest rate hikes next month. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy rose by 0.3% from the previous month. Overall prices increased by 0.4%. Due to the interruption in data collection during the government shutdown last October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release year-on-year changes.The report shows that price pressures continue to mount ahead of this month's midterm elections, with the Democratic Party focusing primarily on the cost of living to regain control of both houses of Congress. This year, the war in Iran, tariffs, and the boom in data centers have all fueled inflation. This is the last CPI report that Federal Reserve officials will see before the policy meeting on December 8-9. Investors expect that they will raise interest rates at this meeting to address inflation.Before the release, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if core CPI rises by 0.3% or more, the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates by 50 basis points.

According to Gate market data, the overall and core CPI in the United States for October both exceeded expectations. Spot gold briefly plummeted over 30 dollars, currently reported at 4046 dollars per ounce, while spot silver fell over 3.00% during the day, currently reported at 51.72 dollars per ounce.

After the CPI data was released, the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds expanded its gains, with the latest 10-year Treasury yield rising by 9.03 basis points to 4.952%.The latest 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 16.54 basis points to 4.715%.

U.S. October seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate 0.4%, expected 0.3%, previous value 0.60%.U.S. October seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate 0.3%, expected 0.20%, previous value 0.30%.

After the speech by Federal Reserve Governor Waller, the market has further increased its bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, and it has now fully priced in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in December.Waller stated that even if the October CPI improves compared to September, it will still support a 25 basis point rate hike in December. If the October core CPI rises around 0.3% or higher, the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates by 50 basis points in December.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that even if the October CPI improves compared to September, it will still support a 25 basis point rate hike in December. If the October core CPI rises by around 0.3% or higher, the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates by 50 basis points in December.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin traded below $75,000 on Tuesday morning as the market awaited the U.S. October CPI data. Economists expect the overall CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month, with core CPI rising 0.2%, both slowing compared to September. Due to the U.S. government shutdown last October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to compile a complete index, so there is no year-over-year data this time.BRN analysts stated that any easing of inflation expectations would benefit risk assets, but Bitcoin needs real buying pressure. Until ETF fund flows turn positive and the Federal Reserve shifts to a dovish stance, the path of least resistance remains downward. Bitget Wallet analysts believe that moderate inflation data could trigger a brief rebound, but Bitcoin's sustained recovery depends on improved liquidity and spot demand. Analysts pointed out that if Bitcoin closes below $73,000 on a daily basis, it could trigger momentum selling down to $70,000; the $73,000 to $74,000 range is a key support zone, and reclaiming and holding above $80,000 would indicate increased demand.

The U.S. October CPI inflation report will be released at 21:30 Beijing time, but this report will lack the year-on-year data for CPI and core CPI.The reason is that the U.S. government shutdown in October 2025 prevented staff from collecting price data for that month, resulting in a lack of reference for this year. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is unable to calculate year-on-year data, and the market can only rely on month-on-month data to assess the inflation situation.Economists expect that the U.S. October 2026 CPI will rise by 0.3% month-on-month, and core CPI will rise by 0.2% month-on-month, with growth rates cooling down.

Next week, the U.S. October CPI, PPI, and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials will become the market focus. Previously, the U.S. added 165,000 non-farm jobs in October, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, raising expectations for interest rate hikes. LSEG data shows that the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December has risen to about 80%, with the market expecting that this cycle may see two more rate hikes, each by 25 basis points.In terms of inflation data, the U.S. October CPI will be released at 21:30 Beijing time on November 10, and the PPI will be released at 21:30 on November 13. ING expects that the overall CPI and core CPI will both rise by 0.3% month-on-month, which is sufficient to support a high probability of a rate hike in December. Monex's macro research director Nick Rees believes that unless the October CPI is significantly lower than expected, or the November employment report released on December 4 shows a clear weakness, the market is expected to have almost fully priced in the 25 basis point rate hike by the time of next month's meeting. Officials such as Waller, Bowman, Barr, and Jefferson will speak or participate in discussions during the week.According to Eastern Time, CoreWeave will release its third-quarter results after the market closes on November 10, Nebius will release its third-quarter results before the market opens on November 12, and Cisco will release its first-quarter results for fiscal year 2027 after the market closes on November 12. Anthropic plans to officially launch its IPO roadshow as early as the week of November 9. Geopolitically, the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine plan to hold working-level negotiations in Abu Dhabi from November 10 to 11. The head of the Ukrainian president's office, Andriy Yermak, stated that he does not expect breakthrough results from this meeting but believes that the resumption of face-to-face talks itself is progress.

Inflation has erased all wage increases for American consumers since the pandemic began in 2020. Since April 2020, consumer prices in the United States have risen by a cumulative 31.3%, reaching a record high in September, while the average hourly wage has only increased by 25.9% during the same period.Additionally, CPI inflation has been above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for 67 consecutive months, marking the third-longest record in the past 100 years. Only two longer periods have lasted 242 months, ending in 1986, and 128 months, ending in 1997. Inflation continues to erode the purchasing power of Americans.

Eurozone October Harmonized CPI Year-on-Year - Unadjusted Initial Value 4%, Expected 4%, Previous Value 3.8%