inflation

According to Jinshi, Tim Graf, Managing Director and Head of EMEA Macro Strategy at State Street, stated that global stock markets have continued to rise over the past few days, but the momentum is currently showing signs of fatigue. He pointed out that the stock market is still supported, and if there are factors that trigger a pullback, it may be the movements in the interest rate market and the expectation that inflation will remain above the target levels of many central banks, forcing central banks to tighten policies.

According to Gate market data, the dollar is heading towards its best week in two months, following U.S. data showing rising inflation pressures that may force the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate hikes within the next year. The dollar index DXY has risen more than 1% this week, expected to achieve its best single-week performance since mid-March. Due to two consecutive inflation data releases this week exceeding expectations, the U.S. Treasury market has been impacted, prompting a Federal Reserve official to state that the U.S. "is facing an inflation problem."

According to BIT analysis, if Bitcoin could keep up with the Nasdaq's rise, the current price should be close to $140,000. The relative underperformance of Bitcoin may be related to the resurgence of inflation since the third quarter of 2025. Overall, Bitcoin had generally followed the fluctuations of the Nasdaq, but since October 2025, the divergence between the two has begun to widen significantly. At that time, the latest CPI reading had risen back to 3%, which is 100 basis points above the Federal Reserve's target, and the interest rate market also began to gradually retract some pricing for rate cuts in 2026. This is precisely the source of the pressure on Bitcoin; its upward logic relies on expectations of Federal Reserve easing, and once the market starts to retract pricing for rate cuts, performance often comes under pressure. Subsequently, this logic continued to influence Bitcoin's trend.Stocks, on the other hand, are completely different. As long as the market still views inflation as mild and temporary, a rise in inflation can actually be beneficial for stocks: even if sales do not increase significantly, it can boost nominal corporate income, reduce real debt burdens, and enhance the attractiveness of stocks as a hedge against purchasing power. The latest U.S. inflation data seems to have caught some market participants off guard, although the agency's model had previously indicated that price pressures might rise again. The current key question is whether this round of inflation expectation repricing will weaken the ongoing positive fundamentals for Bitcoin; and how investors should adjust their positions in this context.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Williams stated that considering inflation remains above target, background factors are crucial.

According to Jin Shi reports, Federal Reserve's Schmid stated that persistent inflation is the most pressing risk facing the economy, and the level of inflation is clearly still too high.

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that there may be "hot" inflation data in the next one to two months. After that, inflation should start to decline.

According to Jinshi reports, Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Michael Wan stated that after the U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, the yen became the most pressured currency in the process of the dollar strengthening again. The USD/JPY exchange rate fell to around 157.88, approaching the high set on May 6.The market expects the Federal Reserve to further tighten policies, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to its highest level since July of last year, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5%.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that we are very serious about reducing inflation.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that the impact of Iran has disrupted the current inflation environment, while also noting that the labor market seems to remain stable.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that he has some confidence that inflation will fall to 2% before the Iran conflict.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that the inflation rate needs to be restored to 2% and emphasized that this goal should not be changed.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that the inflation shock has not allowed the Federal Reserve to evade responsibility, but has made the work of addressing inflation more difficult.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that the current level of inflation is too high.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that the timing of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a huge question mark, which will have a significant impact on inflation.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Collins stated that strong productivity growth should help alleviate inflationary pressures.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Collins stated that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to alleviate inflationary pressures.

According to Jinshi reports, the market has currently priced in a probability of over 30% for interest rate hikes before December. After the unexpectedly strong PPI data in the U.S. for April, the market believes it will be almost more difficult for the Federal Reserve to justify any rate cuts this year.The April PPI rose by 1.4%, significantly higher than the general expectation of 0.5% from economists, indicating that inflationary pressures are stronger than expected and reinforcing the trend of the market repricing the interest rate path.

According to QCP Capital analysis, BTC is currently consolidating around $82,000, close to the 200-day moving average, with $80,000 support holding steady, but the $84,000 resistance above has not yet been broken. The core CPI for April year-on-year is 2.8%, slightly above expectations, mainly driven by housing costs (owner's equivalent rent), while core goods inflation remains sluggish, and the transmission of tariffs has not yet fully spread.Core services (excluding housing) inflation has accelerated for three consecutive months, combined with China's PPI turning positive for the first time in 41 months, the global commodity deflation dividend may be fading, and the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has been raised further. The market is currently focused on three major catalysts: the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing (involving trade, rare earths, and Middle East issues), the release of PPI data, and the Senate Banking Committee's review process of the CLARITY cryptocurrency regulatory bill. Before these catalysts materialize, spot prices may continue to fluctuate within a range, with volatility remaining low.