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Article
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Analysis: Global debt continues to rise, Bitcoin benefits from the decline in fiat currency purchasing power

According to Forbes, Bitcoin approached $90,000 earlier this month. Meanwhile, global debt continues to rise, and the "currency depreciation trade" surrounding the decline in purchasing power of fiat currency has become one of the factors driving up assets like Bitcoin and gold.Data from the Institute of International Finance shows that global debt increased by $10 trillion in the first half of this year, surpassing $365 trillion in total. The U.S. debt has exceeded $40 trillion, with annual interest payments rising to $1.27 trillion, surpassing defense and Medicare spending, and only lower than Social Security spending. The institute warns that as benchmark interest rates rise, interest costs will also increase.Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau and cross-asset analyst, stated that the current environment is favorable for "currency depreciation assets" like Bitcoin and gold, which is part of the reason for Bitcoin's recent rise. The larger the debt of major economies, the more likely it is to suppress real borrowing costs and allow inflation to erode the real value of debt, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of such trades.Analysts from The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the purchasing power of the dollar has declined by 23% since 2020; if assets only increased by 30% during the same period, investors have essentially just broken even in terms of real purchasing power. The U.S. inflation rate has been above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for 60 consecutive months.

Analysis: Waller may release dovish signals at Jackson Hole, with US debt policy coordination becoming the market focus

The market is closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting this Friday. As U.S. long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, the market generally expects Walsh to possibly release dovish signals to alleviate concerns about inflation and fiscal risks in the bond market.Mark Cabana, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of America, stated that the market has gradually lost sensitivity to Walsh's previous verbal statements about "fighting inflation," and investors currently hope to see a substantive policy path to address inflation. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Basant has recently increased the repurchase of long-term U.S. Treasuries and financed the government through the issuance of short-term bonds, indicating some divergence between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve in managing the bond market.The article points out that Basant's shift of financing pressure to the short end effectively bets U.S. fiscal costs on future interest rate declines. If Walsh can promote interest rate cuts by controlling inflation and boosting productivity, the short-term financing model is expected to reduce government interest expenses; however, if long-term rates remain high, U.S. fiscal pressure may further intensify.The market also anticipates that the Federal Reserve may make adjustments to liquidity management and balance sheet policies. Michael Cloherty, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at CIBC, believes that quantitative tightening could begin as early as the end of 2027, provided that regulatory rule changes can reduce banks' demand for reserves.Currently, the Federal Reserve still holds about $1.6 trillion in long-term U.S. Treasuries. Walsh's statements at Jackson Hole regarding long-term yields, inflation, and the path of balance sheet reduction may become an important signal for assessing the degree of future policy coordination between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.
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