Morning Report | U.S. debt approaches $40 trillion, investors turn to Bitcoin and gold as a hedge against dollar depreciation; Changxin Technology opens 471.59% higher on its first day of trading, with a market value of 3.3 trillion yuan, ranking first in A-shares, Nomura target price 116 yuan
July 27 Market Important Events OverviewCompiled by: ChainCatcher
What important events have occurred in the past 24 hours?
U.S. debt approaches $40 trillion, investors turn to Bitcoin and gold as hedges against dollar depreciation
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by CoinDesk, with U.S. government debt continuing to rise, investors are refocusing on scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold, viewing them as tools to hedge against the declining purchasing power of the dollar. Data from the U.S. Treasury shows that as of last Friday, federal debt has risen to a record $39.7 trillion. Market participants point out that U.S. government debt is currently increasing by about $7 billion per day, and in terms of market value, this increase exceeds that of most crypto assets. The founder of LondonCryptoClub stated that the rapid growth of U.S. debt is driving what is called "currency depreciation trading," where investors buy limited-supply assets like gold and Bitcoin to mitigate the long-term depreciation risk of fiat currencies. The institution believes that in a "fiscal-dominated" environment, Federal Reserve policy may be influenced by government financing needs, requiring interest rates to remain low while continuously providing liquidity to assist with debt refinancing. Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok previously warned that the ratio of U.S. debt to GDP has exceeded 120%, limiting fiscal stimulus space during future economic downturns. At the same time, the Fed may find it difficult to cut rates significantly as it has in the past, as rate cuts could exacerbate inflation and lower Treasury yields, impacting government financing. Currently, Bitcoin prices remain above $65,000, driven by easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran and a drop in oil prices, leading to a rebound in market risk appetite. Meanwhile, Ethereum has recently outperformed Bitcoin, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate breaking through the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, leading the market to believe that altcoin trends may be warming up. However, analysts point out that since its inception in 2010, Bitcoin's price movements resemble those of tech stocks more than traditional safe-haven assets, and its safe-haven properties remain controversial.
Goldman Sachs: Fed expected to keep rates unchanged, interpretation of decision is crucial
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Jin10, Goldman Sachs analysts noted in a report that they expect the Federal Reserve to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at this week's meeting. The impact of this decision will depend on how Fed Chair Waller interprets it and the future policy path. Analysts stated that if the Fed fails to provide sufficient economic outlook or policy response guidance, it could lead to volatility risks for the currently stable long-term U.S. Treasury yield curve and inflation risk premiums. Currently, money market pricing shows a 31.5% probability of a rate hike by the Fed this week, but the mainstream market expectation remains that rates will stay unchanged.
Elmar Voelker: Fed vote on Wednesday may show dissent, potentially affecting September meeting results
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Jin10, LBBW senior fixed income analyst Elmar Voelker stated in a report that investors may focus on the potential number of dissenting votes in the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday. He believes there could be as many as three dissenting votes, as there was a similar scale of dissenting votes against the Fed's forward guidance back in April. If the Fed unanimously decides to adopt a wait-and-see monetary policy stance, it would be an unexpected positive for the bond market, shaking market participants' general expectations of a rate hike in September.
Cantor plans to assist Swiss crypto bank AMINA in seeking growth capital through a reverse merger
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by CoinDesk, Swiss crypto bank AMINA is collaborating with Wall Street firm Cantor to evaluate pathways to enter the capital markets. AMINA had considered a SPAC merger but is now more inclined to achieve a reverse merger by acquiring a Digital Asset Treasury company, though no final decision has been made. A company spokesperson stated that the current priority is to introduce strategic growth capital, with an IPO as a subsequent option, and that they are not currently in talks with any SPACs or DATs. AMINA, formerly SEBA Bank, is regulated by Swiss FINMA and provides crypto trading, custody, staking, and lending services, with operations expanded to Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong, and India. By the end of 2025, Tier 1 capital is projected to be 74.6 million Swiss francs, with cumulative financing of approximately $245 million.
Russian central bank governor: Cryptocurrency purchase limits for non-qualified investors aim to protect investors
According to ChainCatcher, Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina stated that Bill No. 1194918-8 distinguishes between qualified and non-qualified investors, which is not only applicable to the cryptocurrency sector but is a common arrangement in regulation. Elvira Nabiullina indicated that the scope for non-qualified investors is more limited because the government seeks to protect them from assuming risks they do not understand through legislation. She noted that the relevant measures also cover the crypto ecosystem due to the volatility of the crypto market and the risk of foreign digital assets being seized due to their association with Russia. Bill No. 1194918-8 is expected to take effect on September 1 and will be implemented simultaneously with the launch of the digital ruble. The bill stipulates that the cryptocurrency purchase limit for non-qualified investors is 300,000 rubles, approximately $3,800, while the limit for qualified investors is ten times that amount. Elvira Nabiullina stated that the Russian crypto ecosystem remains open, and the repatriation and transfer of digital assets abroad are unrestricted. She mentioned that investors receiving relevant assets abroad will not be protected by Russian law and must resolve any issues within foreign jurisdictions.
Metaplanet acquires Siiibo Securities, plans to build a Bitcoin fixed income market based in Japan
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by The Block, Japanese listed company Metaplanet has acquired Siiibo Securities, which holds a type of financial product business license, and is authorized to design and sell securities in Japan. Research firm Benchmark noted that the market generally views this acquisition of approximately 2.1 billion yen (about $13 million) as a small-scale expansion, but Metaplanet actually plans to use this as a basis to issue Bitcoin collateralized bonds, "Bitbonds," with an annualized yield of about 4% to 6%, and subsequently migrate to blockchain and settle through stablecoins, gradually forming a secondary market. Metaplanet aims to allow companies wishing to adopt a Bitcoin balance sheet strategy to issue bonds to purchase BTC on its platform and, under the "Project Nova" roadmap, create a new type of financial institution centered on Bitcoin. Currently, the company holds approximately 43,000 BTC, making it the third-largest Bitcoin treasury among publicly listed companies globally.
Binance Android app removed from Google Play Store in some EU countries
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Cointelegraph, the Binance Android app has recently become unsearchable or unavailable for download in the Google Play Store in some EU countries, indicating a regional change in its availability in the EU market. Currently, users in Spain have confirmed that the app has disappeared from the Google Play Store, while it is still displaying normally in Poland, suggesting that this situation does not cover the entire EU market. Market attention is focused on whether Binance complies with the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) licensing requirements. Previously, Binance withdrew its MiCA application in Greece and notified some EU users around the end of the transition period that certain services would be restricted, although withdrawal functions remain available.
Senator Lummis pushes for CLARITY Act to combat illegal crypto activities like those of the Lazarus Group
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Bitcoin.com, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis is pushing for the CLARITY Act to complete Senate voting before Congress recesses. Article 303 of the bill grants the Treasury Department the power to impose targeted sanctions on digital assets in foreign jurisdictions, while Article 305 allows exchanges to freeze suspicious transactions for up to 180 days. On-chain data shows that North Korea's Lazarus Group stole approximately $643 million in the first half of 2026, accounting for two-thirds of the total amount stolen in the crypto space during the same period ($972 million), including a $285 million attack on Drift Protocol in April and a $292 million attack on the KelpDAO cross-chain bridge. The organization has accumulated thefts totaling $6.75 billion since 2019. Currently, Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 30%, as the bill requires 60 votes to advance, meaning at least 7 Democratic senators need to cross party lines to support it.
Sequoia, a16z, and five other VCs sign MOU with Korea's National Pension Service to increase investments in strategic industries like AI
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Korean media Asiae, six leading Silicon Valley venture capital firms, including Sequoia Capital, a16z, Khosla Ventures, Lightspeed Venture Partners, General Catalyst, and NEA, announced the signing of a strategic investment cooperation memorandum (MOU) with Korea's National Pension Service (NPS), planning to jointly explore investment opportunities, share investment information, and strengthen global venture capital layouts. Furthermore, the Korean government is accelerating policies to attract overseas venture capital, coupled with the launch of the "National Growth Fund" with a scale of 200 trillion won, leading the market to expect synchronized inflows of policy funds, private capital, and overseas capital into Korea's venture capital sector, with strategic industries like AI and semiconductors likely to receive more investment. However, industry insiders warn that if a large amount of capital concentrates on a few popular companies, it may inflate valuations and create bubbles, potentially facing valuation correction pressure during future IPOs and mergers, affecting fund returns.
Triple-A treasury wallet hacked, resulting in a loss of approximately $11.8 million
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Cointelegraph, Singapore-based stablecoin payment company Triple-A confirmed that its treasury wallet was accessed without authorization, with on-chain investigator Specter estimating the loss at approximately $11.8 million. The company stated that customer funds are held in independent trust accounts and were not affected by this incident, and the related losses will be borne by the company's own financial reserves. Currently, Triple-A has restored all services and is working with cybersecurity experts, blockchain forensics agencies, and the Singapore police to investigate and trace the stolen assets.
Garden Finance hacked, resulting in a loss of approximately $450,000 USDT
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Cointelegraph, cross-chain bridging and atomic swap protocol Garden Finance temporarily took its application offline after detecting abnormal activity on July 27. Blockchain security company Blockaid revealed that attackers exploited a vulnerability in Garden Finance's hash time-locked contract (HTLC) to steal approximately $450,000 USDT across four networks: Ethereum, Base, Arbitrum, and BNB Smart Chain.
Probability of Fed keeping rates unchanged in July at 63.7%, probability of rate hike in September rises
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Jin10, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 36.3%. By September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged drops to 19.6%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points rises to 55.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 25.2%.
Yili Hua: Bitcoin resistance level around $67,500, insists on gradually bottoming out in July and August
According to ChainCatcher, Yili Hua, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), stated that the Bitcoin resistance level remains around $67,500, and only a strong breakout can initiate a sustained rebound. Regardless, he insists on the previous view of gradually bottoming out in July and August and then waiting for a new bull market cycle, as analyzing the market in a volatile range and analyzing bottom prices in the bottom range is not very meaningful. In AI U.S. stocks, we analyzed the computing power company AGPU, which announced a new contract worth $1.5 billion last night, bringing its total contracts to over $3 billion, likely to complete $10 billion in total contracts this year. The key is that AGPU's financing method is not ATM equity, ensuring investor interests. These contracts will soon reflect in the upcoming financial reports.
NewGen increases stake in K25.ai to 13%, latter's valuation rises to $250 million
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by GLOBE NEWSWIRE, NewGenIVF Group (NASDAQ: NIVF) has signed an agreement to reacquire a 3% stake in K25.ai at a valuation of $250 million, raising its ownership from 10% to 13%. The transaction price is approximately $7.5 million, and NewGen plans to issue about 2.5 million shares of Class A common stock as partial payment, increasing the total outstanding shares to about 5.9 million, with a market value expected to exceed $500 million, helping it maintain Nasdaq listing market value requirements. Based on the latest valuation, NewGen's previous $10 million investment in K25.ai now corresponds to approximately $25 million in book value. K25.ai is an AI-native live and information market platform that has recently completed community testing and is accelerating expansion in the Asia-Pacific region.
Changxin Technology opens high on its first day of listing, up 471.59%, market value reaches 3.3 trillion yuan, Nomura target price at 116 yuan
According to ChainCatcher, domestic DRAM leader Changxin Technology (688825.SH) listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board today, opening at 49.5 yuan, up 471.59% from the issue price of 8.66 yuan, with a market value reaching 3.3 trillion yuan, ranking first in A-shares. This IPO raised approximately 57.9 billion yuan (before full exercise of the over-allotment option), making it the largest IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board to date. Based on the opening price, investors could earn 20,000 yuan per subscription. Nomura Securities initiated coverage on Changxin Technology the same day, giving a target price of 116 yuan, based on an expected earnings per share of 5.8 yuan in 2028 and a target price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times, corresponding to an approximate 13.4 times increase from the issue price, implying a market value of about 7.76 trillion yuan. Nomura believes this valuation is about twice that of Micron, primarily based on expectations of market share growth for Changxin Storage and valuation premiums in the Chinese market.
NVIDIA invests in OpenAI co-founder’s new AI lab, providing large-scale GPU computing support
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by the WSJ, NVIDIA has invested in the AI lab Safe Superintelligence (SSI) founded by former OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever, reaching a long-term cooperation agreement aimed at expanding SSI's computing resources while helping NVIDIA secure important clients in the AI field. The two companies stated that NVIDIA made a "large-scale" investment after understanding some of SSI's research progress, but did not disclose the specific amount. As part of the collaboration, SSI will gain access to a large number of NVIDIA flagship GPU resources, with its computing power expected to increase by an order of magnitude. Previously, SSI primarily relied on TPU chips provided by Google for AI research and development. This collaboration indicates that NVIDIA is further expanding its AI chip ecosystem and binding future computing demands through investments in top AI labs. SSI was established in 2024 by Ilya Sutskever, aiming to develop "Safe Superintelligence." The company has previously secured approximately $2 billion in funding, with investors including Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital, reaching a valuation of about $30 billion last year. This is not NVIDIA's first investment in an AI company founded by a former core member of OpenAI. In March of this year, NVIDIA also invested in Thinking Machines Lab, founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, whose first AI model was trained on NVIDIA hardware. Ilya Sutskever is one of the key researchers in modern artificial intelligence, having co-founded OpenAI and promoted the development of large model technologies like ChatGPT. However, after leaving OpenAI, he began to question the approach of solely relying on scaling data and computing power to drive AI progress, turning to explore new research directions in superintelligence.
Jensen Huang: Establishing an Open Secure AI Alliance to enhance network defense capabilities with open models
According to ChainCatcher, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang announced the establishment of the "Open Secure AI Alliance" on the X platform, aiming to unite global tech companies to jointly develop security technologies and tools to protect AI software and agents (AI Agents). Huang stated that attackers already possess cutting-edge AI capabilities, and defenders need to establish a cutting-edge AI ecosystem driven by the global community, combining the advantages of open and closed-source models to enhance AI security capabilities. He pointed out that in the previous Hugging Face security incident, closed-source AI limited critical forensic work, while open-weight cutting-edge models helped teams control the intrusion event, which is also the reason for establishing the Open Secure AI Alliance. According to NVIDIA, the alliance will collaborate with several companies and institutions, including Adobe, Microsoft, Hugging Face, IBM, NVIDIA, Cloudflare, CrowdStrike, Databricks, Palantir, Red Hat, Salesforce, SAP, ServiceNow, SpaceX, and SK Telecom, to develop new AI security technologies and protective tools.
A trader in Hong Kong misappropriates HK$50 million in margin for leveraged stock trading, resulting in a paper loss of HK$150 million and arrested
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Tencent News "Frontline," a 26-year-old male employee of Rich Management Services Limited in Central, Hong Kong, misappropriated HK$50 million from the company as margin without authorization to buy double long SK Hynix ETF (07709.HK) through margin financing, leading to a paper loss of up to HK$150 million. The trader was arrested by the police on July 20 on suspicion of "theft," with the incident occurring from January 9 to July 20. Financial professionals in Hong Kong analyzed that the transformation of HK$50 million in principal into HK$150 million in losses was due to the double leverage of margin financing and double long ETF. This ETF surged to a historical high of HK$193.65 at the end of June, driven by the storage chip concept, and then the semiconductor sector sharply corrected, falling to HK$52.58 by July 20, a drop of over 72%. The police revealed that the relevant positions had not yet been forcibly liquidated, and the final loss would still fluctuate with stock prices. The incident was discovered and reported to the police during a recent company audit. Rich Management is not a licensed company by the Securities and Futures Commission, and Rich Securities stated that the involved personnel are not their employees and are unrelated to the incident, but some clients have shown risk-averse withdrawals after the incident.
Waller to strengthen anti-inflation image, may lead to a flattening of the yield curve in the short term
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Jin10, Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay, noted in a report that investors have reason to believe that Fed Chair Waller will lean towards hawkish remarks and do everything possible to solidify his anti-inflation reputation, even though he will not take any actual action at this time. This may lead to a further flattening of the U.S. yield curve in the short term. Dowding also mentioned that given the continued deterioration of the U.S. fiscal situation and rising spending by Trump in the Middle East conflict, these factors may lead to the yield curve steepening again at some point in the future.
HSBC: Unless the Fed raises rates, the dollar is unlikely to rise significantly
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Jin10, HSBC economist Paul Mackel stated in a report that unless the Fed unexpectedly raises rates, its decision this week may not provide new catalysts for the dollar to rise. Fed Chair Waller acknowledged that inflation is above target and expressed a commitment to price stability. He pointed out that if this week's meeting only aligns with these views, the dollar is unlikely to rise significantly, as the market is already prepared for a rate hike later this year.
Bitmine increased its holdings by 9,946 ETH last week and repurchased 6.1 million shares of common stock
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by PR Newswire, Bitmine Immersion Technologies (NYSE: BMNR) increased its holdings by 9,946 Ethereum last week and repurchased 6.1 million shares of common stock. As of July 27, Beijing time, its total ETH holdings rose to 5,787,414, accounting for approximately 4.8% of the total Ethereum supply. Bitmine currently holds a total value of approximately $11.8 billion in cryptocurrencies, cash, and other investment assets, including about $268 million in cash and securities, 208 Bitcoin, approximately $180 million in Beast Industries equity, and an investment of about $61 million in Eightco Holdings (ORBS). Its staked ETH amount is 4,917,189 (approximately 85% of total holdings), valued at about $9.6 billion at $1,948 each, with current annualized staking returns of approximately $254 million.
Kraken's parent company Payward acquires Magic Labs' embedded wallet business
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by The Block, Magic Labs has agreed to sell its embedded wallet business to Payward, the parent company of cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, as part of a broader restructuring of the company, with Magic Labs also rebranding to Newton Labs. This transaction is in the form of an asset sale, and after the transaction is completed, Magic Labs and Payward will continue to operate independently, with wallet customers being transferred to Payward Services. Since its establishment in 2018, Magic Labs has created over 60 million wallets, supporting more than 200,000 developers. Newton Labs will focus on developing Newton Protocol, an authorization layer for on-chain finance that executes compliance, security, and risk strategies before transactions are settled on-chain. This protocol has entered the mainnet testing phase in June 2026. The first product based on Newton Protocol, VaultKit, is a set of composable strategy tools for institutional-grade vaults. This acquisition is another transaction in Payward's ongoing expansion of its financial infrastructure platform, having previously completed the acquisition of CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange Bitnomial for up to $550 million in cash and stock, and acquired Hong Kong stablecoin payment company Reap Technologies for $600 million, as well as acquiring retail futures platform NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion in 2025.
Strategy did not increase Bitcoin holdings last week, dollar reserves rose to $3.75 billion
According to ChainCatcher, as reported in an 8-K filing submitted to the SEC by Strategy, the company did not purchase Bitcoin from July 20 to 26, maintaining its holdings at 843,775, with a total holding cost of approximately $63.69 billion, at an average price of about $75,476. During the same period, the company sold 5.4292 million shares of MSTR common stock through its ATM program, raising approximately $544.5 million; additionally, it repurchased 288,930 shares of STRC preferred stock for $25 million, with a remaining balance of approximately $975 million in the preferred stock repurchase plan. As of July 26, the company's dollar reserve balance was $3.75 billion, an increase of approximately $525 million from the previous week, sufficient to cover about 2.1 years of preferred stock dividend expenses.
Meme Popularity Rankings
According to the meme token tracking and analysis platform GMGN, as of July 28, 09:30,
The top five popular ETH tokens in the past 24 hours are: PUPPY, PEPE, ASTEROID, SHIB, CATE
The top five popular Solana tokens in the past 24 hours are: CATE, Nongwan, budi, Jimothy, ◎
The top five popular Base tokens in the past 24 hours are: BRIAN, JERRY, SOSO, KAITO, ELSA
What are some noteworthy articles to read in the past 24 hours?
In the first seven months of this year, nearly all new ecosystem projects listed by RootData across Layer 1/2 have seen significant declines, with the top eight Layer 1/2 being Solana (59), Robinhood Chain (42), Ethereum (36), Base (30), Hyperliquid (19), BNB Chain, Arbitrum, Polygon, Arc, and Sui.
Dragonfly partner: How many more years for crypto VCs? The industry may be nearing its end
You must become a better partner, a better venture capitalist, providing better help and advice to founders, and you must be more capable of supporting the founders you work with. If you can't do that, you have no right to continue managing funds. It's that simple. This answer may be blunt, but the answer is actually very clear: if cryptocurrency ultimately wins, its way of winning is to become ubiquitous. And those companies using crypto technology will no longer be called crypto companies. They will just be companies.
How did Changxin, with a target price of 116 yuan and a market value of 7.9 trillion, come about?
Additionally, Nomura mentioned that Changxin's collaboration with Zhaoyi Innovation on DRAM-on-logic wafer-to-wafer (WoW) stacking targets automotive smart cockpits, high-end mobile phones/PCs, and edge AI scenarios in robotics, with Nomura believing that this technology will start to gain significant momentum from the end of 2027. The author believes that the previous assumption of a 90% gross margin is clearly unsustainable. Directly extrapolating the cyclical peak as a long-term norm does not conform to the operational laws of the storage industry. Therefore, the correct approach should be to not view the profit assumptions and target prices as long-term centers, but rather as upper limits calculated under conditions of extreme supply-demand tension, with prices and profitability both in an optimistic state.
Korea's leading crypto media TokenPost integrates RootData data and launches relationship map
The Token Watch relationship map requires no additional installation and can be used directly on the web, supporting both Korean and English interfaces. A representative from TokenPost stated, "To understand crypto asset projects, it is not only necessary to look at prices and listing information but also to understand the connections behind the projects, including the funds and individuals involved. We will continue to optimize the relationship map to allow for intuitive exploration of dispersed investment and personnel information." At the same time, Token Watch stated that the information displayed in the relationship map may differ from the actual latest status due to differences in collection and confirmation time points, and all data is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. This article is based on market data and chart analysis and does not constitute investment advice for specific projects.
Risk warning
Popular articles
