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Goldman Sachs: Korean retail investors are flowing funds into cryptocurrency, and KOSPI's upward movement relies more on foreign investment

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Department's South Korea stock analyst Chris Cha stated in a report on September 23 that KOSPI has the conditions for a short-term tactical breakout, but the continuous flow of liquidity from South Korean retail investors into the cryptocurrency market will make the index's subsequent upward movement more reliant on foreign capital and local institutions reconfiguring. The report noted that concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rates have been partially digested by the market, and risk appetite has shifted towards proxy AI themes.The report pointed out that South Korean memory chips provide fundamental support, with fourth-quarter DRAM contract prices expected to grow double digits quarter-on-quarter, and the ramp-up of HBM4 capacity will continue to limit the supply of standard server DRAM. Samsung Electronics' large shareholder returns, continuous buying by institutions, and foreign capital turning into net buying may drive KOSPI towards the resistance zone of 7000 to 7200 points.The report also indicated that the capacity of local South Korean retail investors to absorb has weakened. After Bitcoin returned to $85,000, cryptocurrency trading in South Korea has heated up. According to DefiLlama data cited in the report, Upbit's single-day spot trading volume on June 13 was approximately $770 million, which rose to $1.817 billion on September 22, an increase of about 136%. Based on the total trading volume of $3.27 billion on that day across South Korea's five major trading platforms, Upbit alone accounted for over half. Goldman Sachs believes this will make KOSPI more reliant on foreign and institutional buying in the future, and October is a critical window to test whether foreign capital will continue to increase its investment in South Korean semiconductor and AI assets.

first_img The Bank of Korea launches a 24-hour won settlement pilot program aimed at foreign investors

The Bank of Korea (BOK) has launched the first 24-hour Korean won settlement network pilot, aimed at allowing foreign investors to settle won transactions outside of normal banking hours in South Korea. The central bank announced on Monday that its international wire transfer network has begun trial operations with four domestic banks: KB Kookmin Bank, Woori Bank, Hana Bank, and Shinhan Bank. Full operations are expected to start in January 2027, at which point participation will expand to other institutions and foreign banks.The network operates 24 hours a day on weekdays, excluding weekends and public holidays. Foreign investors can settle won transactions during their domestic business hours by registering a Foreign Institution (RFI-K) account for won services, without the need to open an account directly with a South Korean financial institution. The Bank of Korea stated that the network is expected to enhance the international status of the won by improving foreign investors' access to won settlement infrastructure.In addition, the Bank of Korea is also experimenting with tokenized settlement infrastructure through the Agorá project led by the Bank for International Settlements, which completed a cross-border payment trial using tokenized central bank reserves and commercial bank deposits, including the won, in July. The Bank of Korea is simultaneously advancing the Hangang project, a blockchain-based pilot that utilizes wholesale central bank digital currency to settle tokenized commercial bank deposits.

first_img South Korean investors petition for the fourth time to delay cryptocurrency taxes, while regulators insist on implementing them on schedule

South Korean investors are once again pushing to delay the cryptocurrency capital gains tax scheduled to be implemented on January 1, 2027, but regulators insist on proceeding as planned. According to the South Korean National Assembly's electronic petition system, a petition requesting a two-year delay of the crypto tax plan has garnered 50,000 valid signatures, reaching the legislative review threshold, and will be automatically submitted for consideration by the relevant standing committee.South Korea plans to impose a 22% tax (including a 20% basic tax rate and a 2% local tax) on the portion of annual income from digital assets exceeding 2.5 million Korean won (approximately $1,856), covering income from the sale, transfer, and lending of cryptocurrency assets. This tax has been postponed three times since it was first discussed in 2022. Petitioners argue that the majority of crypto investors are suffering significant losses, with major South Korean crypto companies experiencing a decline in operating profits of up to 90%. Implementing the tax at this time would kick young people's wealth ladder away and could push investors toward offshore platforms.In May of this year, a petition calling for the abolition of the crypto tax reached the 50,000 signature threshold within eight days of submission but did not advance further. Meanwhile, the government's stance remains firm, with the nominee for the Minister of Economy and Finance, Lee Heung-ik (phonetic), stating last weekend that the crypto tax plan is proceeding as scheduled, and the National Tax Service will announce detailed tax standards later this year.
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