risk

According to Jinshi, Paul Ciana, the head of technical research at Bank of America, stated that investors should hedge against further rebounds in the S&P 500 index and prepare for a potential "three-wave correction" in the coming months. Ciana pointed out that the S&P 500 index has risen nearly 17% since the March low, but after reaching a recent peak on June 2, the upward momentum has shown signs of fatigue and could drop to 6,850 points, about 7.6% lower than current levels. He emphasized that as the risk of a correction accumulates, the price trend is "overstretched," and momentum is deteriorating, suggesting a "defensive stance" from July to September.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned in its latest annual report that the bursting of the AI bubble, a rebound in inflation, and sovereign debt pressures are the three core risks currently threatening global economic prosperity. The report pointed out that if the returns on investment in the AI sector fall short of expectations, it could lead to the current capital expenditure boom evolving into a long-term investment contraction, triggering significant macroeconomic turbulence.The BIS specifically cautioned about the complex "circular financing" model within the AI industry chain, such as cross-shareholding and computing power binding procurement agreements between chip manufacturers and AI laboratories or cloud service providers. The institution emphasized that such transactions often lack transparency and pose the risk of the same asset being mortgaged multiple times. In addition, energy shocks caused by geopolitical conflicts could trigger a secondary rebound in inflation, compounded by high-leverage arbitrage trading by hedge funds in the government bond market, which would further exacerbate the fragility of the global financial system.

The Chief Information Security Officer of Slow Fog, 23pds, posted on the X platform that curl recently fixed 18 security vulnerabilities, involving issues such as authentication bypass, memory safety, and host verification, among which one libcurl vulnerability has existed for about 25 years. The risks are not limited to the curl command line but also widely affect applications, SDKs, containers, firmware, gateways, and CI/CD environments that rely on libcurl. It is recommended to upgrade curl/libcurl as soon as possible and check for the use of old versions of libcurl, especially paying attention to mTLS, proxy authentication, and connection reuse scenarios.

According to the Chosun Ilbo, the revised listing regulations for increasing the retention threshold in the South Korean stock market will be implemented on July 1. Some KOSDAQ DAT (Digital Asset Treasury) listed companies that have profited from investing in crypto assets are facing delisting risks.Data from the Korea Exchange shows that on June 26, Bitmax fell 6.3% to 1,228 KRW, with a market capitalization of 13.1 billion KRW, below the lower limit of 20 billion KRW for the second half of the year; Parataxis Ethereum has a market capitalization of 26.8 billion KRW, and BitPlanet has a market capitalization of 33.1 billion KRW. However, Parataxis Ethereum has not met the adjusted standard of 30 billion KRW set for January next year, and Parataxis Korea has been transferred for substantial review of its listing qualifications and suspended since April due to capital erosion.The delisting crisis is mainly influenced by the weakness of crypto assets and the outflow of funds from KOSDAQ. If the trend of declining market capitalization continues, related DAT companies may gradually enter the delisting process starting from early next year, beginning with Bitmax.

According to The Block, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) pointed out in its "2026 Annual Economic Report" that current stablecoins do not meet monetary standards in terms of singularity, resilience, interoperability, and integrity, and their operational model is closer to ETFs rather than payment tools.The report estimates that even if the market value of stablecoins expands to between $1 trillion and $3 trillion, the net effect on economic output will still be slightly negative, while also exacerbating banks' financing pressures and weakening credit capacity. The BIS also warned of the risk of "stablecoin dollarization" in emerging economies, which could erode their monetary sovereignty.The report suggests using central bank currencies as a benchmark to construct a "unified ledger" that encompasses tokenized central bank reserves and commercial bank currencies as an alternative, and uses the Project Agora cross-border payment prototype as a feasibility proof.

According to a report by crypto.news, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the core reason for Bitcoin's recent decline is the "collapse of confidence triggered by Strategy." The issue lies not only in the price of Bitcoin itself but also in the growing concerns in the market regarding Strategy's financing model.As the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin globally, Strategy's stock and preferred securities have become key indicators for traders to measure Bitcoin market risk. Previously, the company's Bitcoin flywheel effect had come under pressure, with stock trading prices dipping below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, indicating that its long-reliant "premium stock issuance to repurchase Bitcoin" model is being challenged. Novogratz bluntly stated that STRC trading is weak, which should have been maintained around $100. Currently, Strategy's annual dividend obligation has risen to about $1.2 billion, and a decline in cash reserves has reduced the dividend coverage period to only about 14 months.Bitcoin is also facing pressure on a macro level. Novogratz summarized the current market logic as "a strong dollar means a weak Bitcoin," with hawkish central bank signals and a strengthening dollar suppressing demand for risk assets. From a technical perspective, the $59,000 to $60,000 range for Bitcoin has become a critical defense line, and if it breaks down, the downward space could open up to $45,000.Novogratz also admitted that the current situation is complex, with a 50-50 probability of a rebound or a deep correction. Outflows from ETF funds, weak liquidity, and cautious positioning in the options market further confirm the fragile market sentiment. Now, the health of Strategy's balance sheet, the performance of STRC prices, and cash positions have evolved from being company-level issues to becoming confidence signals for the overall Bitcoin market.

According to Bitcoin News, Dario Amodei, co-founder and CEO of Anthropic, stated to lawmakers in the U.S. Congress that the development of open-source AI is entering a "very dangerous path." Once powerful AI models are released in open-source form, developers will lose effective oversight over the usage of the models, including the inability to monitor abuse, revoke access, or dynamically update security mechanisms, thereby increasing potential risks.Dario Amodei mentioned that compared to closed model systems, fully open models are more difficult to implement continuous control over security governance, which may lead to irreversible abuse risks.

The Kobeissi Letter analysis points out that since April, the cumulative net outflow from U.S. gold and Bitcoin-related ETFs has been about $12 billion, while during the same period, semiconductor ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $20 billion, with funds clearly concentrating in the technology growth sector.This trend accelerated further in mid-May: the outflow from gold and Bitcoin ETFs increased more than threefold, while the inflow into semiconductor ETFs doubled. In terms of market performance, the world's largest gold ETF GLD has fallen about 13% since early April, and the Bitcoin ETF IBIT has dropped about 12% during the same period; in contrast, semiconductor ETFs SOXX and SMH have risen approximately 81% and 60%, respectively.Analysis suggests that the current market shows a clear "risk preference switch," with retail funds accelerating their shift from safe-haven assets and crypto assets to high-growth semiconductor and AI-related sectors, driving the market in unprecedented ways.

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the Liebit mining pool, stated that MicroStrategy's preferred stock STRC has significantly decoupled, dropping to a low of 73, reflecting the panic sentiment in the U.S. stock market towards Bitcoin.He pointed out that MSTR has raised funds through the issuance of common stock for three consecutive weeks, with half of the funds raised in the first two weeks used to purchase 1,500 BTC, while in the third week, the amount of shares sold doubled, but the amount of BTC purchased decreased to 520 BTC, and most of the funds were retained for paying STRC dividends. He believes this is a clear signal of the company's pessimistic attitude towards the subsequent market.Jiang Zhuoer indicated that the amount of BTC purchased by MSTR is expected to decline significantly in the coming months, and it may even stop purchasing BTC altogether, instead using the funds to pay STRC dividends. He also emphasized that STRC is a preferred stock rather than debt, meaning the company only needs to pay dividends without repaying the principal. Currently, MSTR's debt ratio is only about 10%, and unless the Bitcoin bear market lasts for ten years, there is no "explosion" risk for MSTR.

In response to market concerns about whether it is the next LUNA, Arkham analysis indicates that STRC is a perpetual preferred stock with a dividend yield of 11.5%, requiring approximately $1.2 billion in payments annually. The strategy reserves $1.4 billion, but there is no legal obligation to prioritize dividend payments.However, Arkham also pointed out that the decline in stock price reflects market worries about Saylor's ability to continue paying dividends and raising funds. This will not directly collapse the company but may have a long-term impact on investor confidence and financing.According to market data, after the U.S. stock market opened tonight, STRC briefly fell to $73 and is currently reported at $76.2 (25% below the $100 par value).

The Chief Information Security Officer of Slow Fog, 23pds, stated that researchers have exposed a high-risk vulnerability in CI/CD called Cordyceps, affecting the open-source repositories of major companies such as Microsoft, Google, Apache, and Cloudflare. Attackers do not need corporate accounts or any system permissions; they can simply register a free GitHub account, submit a malicious PR, and leave a comment to forge approvals, steal server keys, and push malicious code, completely taking control of the corporate code repository.

According to Jinshi reports, Naoki Tamura, a member of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, stated that if the risk of inflation exceeding expectations arises, they may need to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes.

Today, Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang pointed out in an online live broadcast themed "Logic of Gold Trend Analysis" that this week's market focus will be on the U.S. May PCE Price Index and the final value of Q1 GDP.Previously, CPI and PPI data reached new highs, non-farm employment showed robust performance, and signals of inflation rebound combined with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance have led the market to gradually digest rate hike expectations. He emphasized that Waller has clearly stated that controlling inflation is the top priority, and the interest rate dot plot shows that rate hikes in 2026 are becoming an internal consensus, and the market needs to prepare for a higher and longer-lasting interest rate environment.Regarding the gold trend, Lewis Huang stated that due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts driving up energy prices, the overall year-on-year increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index may rise to 3.4% or even higher. If the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rises unexpectedly, the U.S. Dollar Index will gain strong momentum, while non-interest-bearing assets like gold will face weakening risks. He suggests that CFD traders closely monitor inflation expectation differentials and flexibly capture opportunities for U.S. dollar bullishness or guard against gold downturns.

According to a report released by the data analysis platform Glassnode (@glassnode), although the BTC price is still far below its historical high, traders on the Hyperliquid platform are continuously increasing their long positions, with a buy-the-dip sentiment prevailing throughout the downward trend, and the potential for market short squeezes is continuously accumulating.Meanwhile, the altcoin cycle signal has returned to "altcoin season," and the selling pressure on altcoins is tending to exhaust, but BTC is still under downward pressure, and the current market trend is still dominated by BTC movements.

According to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs has lowered the risk of an economic recession in the United States within the next 12 months to 15%, down from a previous forecast of 25%.

About 1,200 small and medium-sized enterprises have joined the Japan National Business Enterprise Pension Fund (located in Okayama City), which plans to start investing in cryptocurrencies in the fiscal year 2026. There have been some cases of Japanese companies investing in crypto assets, but it is still relatively rare for domestic pension funds to participate directly in crypto investments.The fund plans to allocate about 1% of its total assets to cryptocurrencies and will do so indirectly by investing in passive funds managed by large hedge funds that include various crypto assets. In terms of asset allocation, its structure for the fiscal year 2025 is: 80% yen, 15% US dollars, and 5% other currencies. In the fiscal year 2026, it plans to adjust to: a reduction of yen to 70%, an addition of 10% allocation to developed country currencies, and the remaining 5% allocated to emerging market currencies, gold, and crypto assets.The main purpose of this adjustment is to diversify exchange rate risk. The fund's executive director, Ai Kuchi, stated that the status of the US dollar as a global benchmark currency may be weakening, which is why they decided to reduce their holdings in US dollars. At the same time, he pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar index is almost zero, making it a tool for hedging against currency depreciation risk and enhancing the portfolio's ability to withstand inflation.

The recently released policy simulation report "Europe 2031" points out that, constrained by a shortage of computing power and reliance on external models, Europe may face the risk of economic and political marginalization in the global AI competition if it does not make significant strategic adjustments. The report notes that Europe currently accounts for only 5% of global AI computing power, lacking leverage in technological competition, and its advocated "technological sovereignty" may be difficult to achieve due to insufficient funding and lagging policies, even facing the risk of losing autonomous control over core technology companies (such as ASML).To address the aforementioned challenges, the report proposes a series of countermeasures. It suggests that Europe should mobilize public and private capital on a large scale, focusing investments on foundational computing infrastructure such as energy, semiconductors, and data centers; and form a technology alliance with countries like the UK and Japan to integrate supply chain advantages for international negotiation leverage. Additionally, the report calls for Europe to advance labor market reforms to adapt to the proliferation of AI and tighten scrutiny of foreign investment in local manufacturing to consolidate its existing advantages in industrial AI and robotics.

Aave experienced approximately $8.45 billion in fund withdrawals after the KelpDAO's rsETH cross-chain bridge was attacked in April 2026, but the core functions of the protocol did not fail, successfully completing one of the largest liquidity stress tests in DeFi to date. This crisis originated from the attack on KelpDAO's LayerZero cross-chain bridge, resulting in approximately $292 million in rsETH being stolen, raising concerns in the market about the collateral value and solvency of rsETH.As rsETH is widely used as collateral in protocols like Aave, the risk quickly spread, leading to concentrated withdrawals by users, with some market utilization reaching 100% at one point, causing some users to be unable to withdraw funds immediately. In the face of liquidity tightening, the Aave risk management team initiated emergency freeze and parameter adjustment mechanisms to limit the spread of risk.Aave founder Stani Kulechov viewed this incident as proof of the maturity of DeFi, believing that the protocol continued to operate as designed under extreme pressure, demonstrating the resilience of an on-chain transparent, rules-driven system. However, several independent analysts pointed out that while Aave avoided a systemic collapse, the event exposed that the DeFi lending system still has concentration risks, liquidity risks, and contagion risks arising from high interconnectivity between protocols. The behavior of large borrowers could have an impact on the overall stability of the system that exceeds model expectations.Aave currently controls risk through multiple protective measures such as loan-to-value (LTV) limits, liquidation thresholds, supply caps, borrowing limits, Isolation Mode, E-Mode, and governance mechanisms. These mechanisms played a role during this crisis, but observers believe that the governance response speed and risk models still need further optimization to cope with future unknown systemic shocks.Analysis suggests that this incident indicates that DeFi protocols can withstand large-scale runs without external assistance, but a single stress test cannot fully prove system safety. As the composability between protocols continues to strengthen, an issue with an external asset or cross-chain bridge could still quickly evolve into a liquidity crisis for the entire ecosystem.

According to Jinshi reports, Ritesh Ganeriwal, the investment and consulting director at Syfe, stated that the tightening signals released by the Federal Reserve in its statement suggest that inflation risks have not dissipated, even if the conflict in Iran ends and energy supplies return to normal. Ganeriwal mentioned that while there is still a possibility of interest rate hikes this year, this action is far from certain and the threshold is very high. He pointed out that if a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran can be maintained and oil prices remain at lower levels, the Federal Reserve may find fewer reasons to raise interest rates.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve unexpectedly shifted to a more aggressive interest rate hike stance, reflecting heightened concerns about persistently high inflation. The latest dot plot shows that 9 officials support raising interest rates this year, with 6 supporting two or more hikes, each by 25 basis points. Compared to March, when no policymakers predicted a rate hike. Waller emphasized the Federal Reserve's determination to combat inflation, and Deutsche Bank's Chief U.S. Economist Matthew Luzetti stated that the risk of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has clearly increased, with financial markets reacting significantly, leading to a sharp decline in the stock market and rising bond yields.