bitcoin

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that in the context of rising inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve may maintain a high interest rate policy for a long time, which will have three core impacts on the cryptocurrency market. He believes that as the U.S. CPI approaches 4%, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has almost no room for interest rate cuts, and the market currently expects the first rate cut to be delayed until September 2027. Grayscale pointed out that long-term high interest rates will put pressure on "currency devaluation trades" such as Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin, like gold, is a non-yielding asset, higher real interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding dollar-denominated assets. However, it remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects and believes that regulatory benefits such as the CLARITY Act can partially offset the related pressures. In addition, it believes that a high interest rate environment will accelerate the tokenization of fixed income assets. Currently, the yields on dollar-denominated fixed income products are higher than those of most DeFi yields; for example, the USDC lending rate on Aave is about 3.6%, while the yield on short-term corporate bonds is about 4.5%. Grayscale also stated that stablecoin issuers will benefit from high interest rates. Since the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoins from paying interest to users, issuers can retain the income from reserve assets. It estimates that for every 25 basis point increase in short-term rates, Circle's revenue will increase by approximately $190 million.

According to Cointelegraph, after the U.S. stock market opened, Bitcoin quickly fell, briefly dropping below the $79,000 mark, with a daily decline of about 3%, reaching a low not seen since May. The market generally believes that this round of correction is closely related to the sell-off of risk assets triggered by the surge in U.S. Treasury yields. Data shows that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose above 4.55%, reaching a nearly one-year high, raising concerns in the market about tightening liquidity and the reassessment of risk assets.Analysts pointed out that this level had previously triggered adjustments in U.S. stocks and policy expectations last year, and it has now become a key pressure signal again. Trading firm The Kobeissi Letter stated that the "crisis-like rise" in the U.S. Treasury market is intensifying, with long-term high interest rate expectations heating up. The market has begun to factor in the possibility of future rate hikes, leading to a rapid cooling of the previous "euphoric sentiment" in risk assets.From a technical perspective, analysts believe that after multiple rejections of resistance above $82,000, the support structure for Bitcoin is weakening, and it may retest the $75,000--$77,000 range in the short term, as the market enters a phase of range-bound fluctuations and directional choices.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "What price will Bitcoin reach in May?" on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "yes" option for the sub-market "$75,000" has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 37.5% an hour ago to the current 53.5% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin above ___ on May 15?" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "80,000" experienced severe fluctuations in winning probability, plummeting from 79.5% an hour ago to the current 54.5% (a fluctuation of 25%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Decrypt, the price of Bitcoin remains around $80,350, with a short-term increase of only 0.8%, continuing to face pressure after multiple attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level failed. This range is seen as a combined resistance level of the ETF cost line, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap filling area. Although the U.S. CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive expectations for crypto regulation, institutional funds continue to withdraw.Data shows that the net outflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has decreased to an average of -$88 million per day over the past seven days, marking the largest outflow since mid-February. Analysts believe that this round of selling pressure is more about "profit-taking" rather than panic selling. On a macro level, rising U.S. Treasury yields have become a core source of pressure. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to about 4.52%, reaching a 10-month high, while the April CPI has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, the highest level in three years, further delaying market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, thereby weakening the appeal of risk assets. From an institutional perspective, some analysts believe that the current outflow of ETF funds is part of portfolio rebalancing rather than a trend-based withdrawal.The options market shows that Bitcoin faces significant resistance in the $82,000-$84,000 range, while $77,000 is a key support level. If the price falls below this range and leverage does not cool down, the market may enter a deleveraging phase, increasing the risk of a correction.

According to Arkham monitoring, Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund MSBT has once again increased its holdings by 74.536 BTC, worth 5.93 million dollars.As of now, its total Bitcoin holdings have reached 3,389 BTC, worth 273 million dollars.

The latest disclosed SEC documents show that as of March 31, 2026, Avenir Group holds 18,276,100 shares of BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin Spot ETF, with a position market value of approximately $702 million based on the quarter-end closing price, a slight decrease of about 0.061% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Since the second quarter of 2024, Avenir Group has maintained its position as the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin ETFs in Asia for eight consecutive quarters.Since 2026, Avenir Group has been continuously promoting the integration of TradFi and Crypto, including strategic investments in CoinRoutes, leading a $20 million seed round for Inference Research, and signing a cooperation MOU with Tiger Brokers, AMINA Bank, and CoinRoutes during Consensus Hong Kong 2026 to advance the construction of next-generation institutional trading infrastructure.

As market risk appetite rebounds, altcoins have recently outperformed Bitcoin overall, with the Hyperliquid ecosystem token HYPE leading the 24-hour gains. Data shows that funds are shifting from Bitcoin and Ethereum to high-volatility assets, driving up certain DeFi and trading platform-related tokens. Analysts point out that improved risk sentiment among traders and active derivatives markets are important reasons for the recent outperformance of altcoins against BTC.

Strategy's preferred stock STRC recorded a record trading volume on Thursday, with a transaction amount reaching $1.53 billion, more than quadrupling the average over the past 30 days. Reports indicate that this peak in trading mainly occurred on the eve of the ex-dividend date, with a large number of trades priced at or above the $100 par value level. STRC currently offers an annualized cash dividend of approximately 11.5%, paid monthly.The high trading volume propelled Strategy to complete a new round of Bitcoin accumulation through its ATM (at-the-market) financing mechanism, purchasing approximately 11,707 BTC, allowing the company to continue expanding its position as the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder in the world. Market data shows that STRC slightly retreated by about 1% in pre-market trading after entering ex-dividend trading, approaching the trading range just below $100, consistent with the usual price adjustment pattern for dividend-paying assets after the ex-dividend date. During the same period, the price of Bitcoin slightly weakened to around $80,500, and Strategy's common stock also fell by about 2%, reflecting the continued significant correlation between cryptocurrency assets and the company's stock price.

According to GlobeNewsWire, Bitcoin mining company IREN Limited announced the completion of a $3 billion convertible senior notes offering, with a coupon rate of 1% and maturing in 2033. This offering includes $2.6 billion in initial issuance and $400 million in overallotment options. The net proceeds are approximately $2.96 billion, of which about $201.3 million will be used to pay for capped call option transaction costs, with the remainder used for general corporate purposes and working capital.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event "Bitcoin above ___ on May 15?" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "yes" option in the sub-market "80,000" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 81.5% an hour ago to the current 64.5% (a fluctuation of 17%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Analyst Murphy stated that new addresses buying Bitcoin for the first time (First Buyers, FB) are providing fresh blood to the market while absorbing excess distribution. As of May 13, the Bitcoin holdings of first-time buyer addresses have returned to 3.719 million, an increase of 40,000 BTC compared to May 1. The continuous accumulation by new buyers reflects a gradual recovery in investor risk appetite. In comparison to the last cycle, the current 3.72 million is comparable to September 21, 2022. Once the holdings of new buyers exceed 4 million, the overall market structure will become healthier, making it unlikely to experience significant declines or fall below previous lows.

According to the latest data from Gate's market predictions, the overall market expectation regarding the event of "when will Bitcoin reach $150,000" is relatively cautious. As of June 30, 2026, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 is 1%; by December 31, 2026, this probability rises to 10%. Overall, the market maintains a wait-and-see attitude towards the short to medium-term price increase potential of Bitcoin, and funding expectations have not yet formed a consistent breakthrough judgment.As the first CEX platform to connect to Polymarket, Gate consistently ranks among the top three in the Polymarket collaboration channels, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and depth of participation of platform users in the prediction market. Currently, users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participating in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. Gate continues to optimize the prediction market functions and ecosystem, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.

According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (Eastern Time May 14), the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $131 million.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net inflow yesterday was Blackrock ETF IBIT, with a single-day net inflow of $144 million. Currently, IBIT's historical total net inflow has reached $65.917 billion.The second was Bitwise ETF BITB, with a single-day net inflow of $17.7038 million. Currently, BITB's historical total net inflow has reached $2.086 billion.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net outflow yesterday was Grayscale ETF GBTC, with a single-day net outflow of $31.6357 million. Currently, GBTC's historical total net outflow has reached $26.4 billion.As of the time of publication, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $107.746 billion, and the ETF net asset ratio (market value compared to total Bitcoin market value) is 6.61%. The historical cumulative net inflow has reached $58.630 billion.

According to BIT analysis, if Bitcoin could keep up with the Nasdaq's rise, the current price should be close to $140,000. The relative underperformance of Bitcoin may be related to the resurgence of inflation since the third quarter of 2025. Overall, Bitcoin had generally followed the fluctuations of the Nasdaq, but since October 2025, the divergence between the two has begun to widen significantly. At that time, the latest CPI reading had risen back to 3%, which is 100 basis points above the Federal Reserve's target, and the interest rate market also began to gradually retract some pricing for rate cuts in 2026. This is precisely the source of the pressure on Bitcoin; its upward logic relies on expectations of Federal Reserve easing, and once the market starts to retract pricing for rate cuts, performance often comes under pressure. Subsequently, this logic continued to influence Bitcoin's trend.Stocks, on the other hand, are completely different. As long as the market still views inflation as mild and temporary, a rise in inflation can actually be beneficial for stocks: even if sales do not increase significantly, it can boost nominal corporate income, reduce real debt burdens, and enhance the attractiveness of stocks as a hedge against purchasing power. The latest U.S. inflation data seems to have caught some market participants off guard, although the agency's model had previously indicated that price pressures might rise again. The current key question is whether this round of inflation expectation repricing will weaken the ongoing positive fundamentals for Bitcoin; and how investors should adjust their positions in this context.

JPMorgan analysts pointed out in their latest report that although the overall cryptocurrency market has recovered after the Iran conflict, Ethereum and other altcoins continue to underperform compared to Bitcoin. The analyst team led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that this trend, which began in 2023, "is unlikely to change unless we see meaningful improvements in network activity, DeFi, and real-world applications."The analysts noted that since the conflict triggered a market sell-off, Bitcoin's recovery in spot ETF fund flows and institutional futures positions has outperformed Ethereum. The spot Bitcoin ETF has recovered about two-thirds of the previous outflows, while the spot Ethereum ETF has only recovered about one-third. CME futures positions also indicate that institutional investors are rebuilding their Bitcoin exposure more aggressively than Ethereum.Regarding the upcoming Ethereum upgrades (Glamsterdam and Hegota), analysts questioned whether they would be sufficient to improve ETH's relative performance. Upgrades over the past three years have primarily reduced Layer 2 transaction costs, which has weakened the Ethereum network's fee generation and token burn mechanisms, leading to an accelerated net supply growth and weakened price support. Whether the new upgrades can generate enough new demand and network activity remains to be seen.For altcoins, analysts believe that since 2023, weak liquidity conditions, low market depth and breadth, limited growth in DeFi activity, and recurring hacking and security incidents have collectively eroded market confidence and hindered the deployment of new capital.

According to SoSoValue data, the overall cryptocurrency market is on an upward trend, with the DeFi sector performing exceptionally well, rising 5.15% in 24 hours. Among them, TAC (TAC) increased by 30.88%, influenced by factors such as the approval of the Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF, while Hyperliquid (HYPE) rose by 19.02%. Additionally, Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 2.20%, returning above $81,000; Ethereum (ETH) rose by 0.80%, approaching the $2,300 mark.It is worth noting that MAG7.ssi rose by 2.30%, DEFI.ssi increased by 7.55%, and MEME.ssi rose by 1.64%.In other sectors, the PayFi sector rose by 3.42% in 24 hours, with Telcoin (TEL) increasing by 13.85%; the Layer1 sector rose by 1.85%, with Canton Network (CC) increasing by 8.05%; the Layer2 sector rose by 1.27%, with ImmutableX (IMX) increasing by 8.93%; the CeFi sector rose by 1.14%, with FTX (FTT) increasing by 5.45%; the Meme sector rose by 0.11%, with TROLL (TROLL) increasing by 18.37%.Only the AI sector fell by 2.18%, but Billions Network (BILL) rose by 7.80%.The cryptocurrency sector indices reflecting historical market trends show that the ssiDeFi, ssiPayFi, and ssiSocialFi indices increased by 6.60%, 3.73%, and 2.50%, respectively.

According to documents from the U.S. Office of Government Ethics, President Trump purchased shares of the Bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings ($MARA) between January and March 2026. Additionally, a report from Reuters indicates that the same batch of disclosure documents shows Trump conducted 175 financial transactions in March, purchasing at least $51 million in bonds, with the total value of transactions in that month reaching approximately $161 million.