election

According to a report by Reuters, if the Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives or the Senate after the midterm elections in November, they are expected to launch investigations into business dealings related to Trump and his family, focusing on the cryptocurrency, prediction markets, and investment businesses involving the Trump family, as well as companies that funded projects for the White House.The report states that controlling either chamber of Congress will give the Democrats more resources for committee investigations and subpoena power, with some investigations potentially starting as early as February next year. The subjects of investigation frequently mentioned by Democratic lawmakers include the venture capital firm 1789 Capital, in which Donald Trump Jr. is involved, as well as cryptocurrency companies related to the Trump family, but a final list of investigations has not yet been established.Additionally, Republican Senator John Curtis has previously called for an investigation into some of Donald Trump Jr.'s business relationships, believing that the commercial activities of the presidential family should be subject to consistent congressional oversight.

According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. President Trump has rejected Iran's proposed seven-day ceasefire plan and is considering resuming bombings against Iran after the midterm elections in November.Trump is skeptical about whether Iran will meet its demands and has informed his aides that a new round of bombing operations may occur. The U.S. and Tehran are still negotiating through mediators, and Trump has no intention of lifting the maritime embargo.

The U.S. midterm elections have become a key concern for the stock market amid the surge in AI trading. Polls indicate that the Democratic Party may regain control of Congress, and Wall Street strategists point out that this could put pressure on AI boom stocks.The Chief Market Strategist at Zacks Investment says that if the Democrats perform strongly in the elections, hearings on AI safety issues may increase. A strategist at Wolfe Research expects that the Democrats may establish an "AI Special Committee" for inquiries.

U.S. President Trump stated that Iran is the world's number one supporter of terrorism and will never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. Trump has repeatedly urged Iran to negotiate and mentioned that an agreement could be reached after the midterm elections. Trump emphasized that the U.S. is expanding its military assurance capabilities, with ammunition reserves far exceeding expectations, and plans to open a large ammunition factory.He also mentioned that oil flow has reached its highest level, and if the conflict with Iran ends, oil prices will drop significantly.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the event "Political Party with the Most Seats in the Russian Parliamentary Election" is currently the most actively traded on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative fund pool size reaching 367 million dollars. The option with the highest market consensus is "United Russia (ER)", corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 75.5%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $71,255.42 in the event "Russian Parliamentary Election Seat Contest" targeting the "United Russia Party (ER)". Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 81.99%.

White House economic advisor Hassett stated, "Both Trump and I believe there is no reason to raise interest rates, and it is important for the Federal Reserve to maintain the status quo before the election. Trump fully respects Waller's independence."

Solana treasury company SkyAI (formerly Sharps Technology, stock code SKYA) is facing shareholder opposition ahead of its annual shareholder meeting on September 18. A group holding nearly 10% of shares plans to vote against the re-election of the entire board of directors.The group's concerns include the weakening of shareholder rights, the "poison pill" plan, and related party transactions.

According to CoinDesk, DoubleZero has integrated Kalshi's election and political prediction market data into its low-latency data platform DoubleZero Edge, providing real-time order book information for institutional and automated traders. This subscription data stream covers transactions, best bid and ask prices, and market depth aggregated by price, distributed through DoubleZero's contributor-driven fiber network built on Solana.DoubleZero co-founder Austin Federa stated that prediction markets are becoming a source of real-time information, but their value depends on the speed of action. If debates, court rulings, or breaking news change market direction within seconds, delayed snapshots become outdated. Placing Kalshi's real-time order book data for elections and politics on DoubleZero Edge can convert probabilities into machine-readable market data for professional traders and AI systems to consume and execute in real-time.This launch coincides with the acceleration of trading related to the U.S. midterm elections. According to data from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, as of August 10, bets on the 2026 congressional elections on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US have exceeded $133 million, surpassing the $92.4 million for the entire 2024 congressional election cycle. Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market exchange, and the midterm elections on November 3 will determine control of Congress.

The founder of Arbitrum, Steven Goldfeder, and Solana co-founder, Toly, engaged in a debate over the fee model of Robinhood Chain. Toly claimed that the 10% revenue share paid to Arbitrum by Robinhood Chain is sufficient to cover four times the transaction fees on the Solana chain, suggesting that if deployed on Solana, user gas fees could significantly decrease. In response, Goldfeder stated that Robinhood could retain about 90% of gas revenue under the Arbitrum architecture, thus choosing Arbitrum to "be the landlord, not the tenant."Toly countered that Robinhood could charge fees at the application front end while utilizing a lower-cost underlying network; Goldfeder, however, indicated that a large amount of on-chain activity does not go through the Robinhood front end, and if it were merely a "tenant" of the underlying network, Robinhood would not be able to capture the revenue generated from these peripheral activities.According to market news, Robinhood evaluated both Solana and Arbitrum during the product initiation phase and ultimately chose Arbitrum, which allows for independent chain deployment.

The U.S. primary election season is nearing its end, and the cryptocurrency industry's super political action committee (PAC) has achieved victories in several key districts. Supported by major contributors such as Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z, Fairshake has helped approximately 50 candidates win nominations, including Massachusetts Democratic Congressman Jake Auchincloss, as well as Republican Senate candidates Barry Moore from Alabama, Andy Barr from Kentucky, Kevin Hern from Oklahoma, and Harriet Hageman from Wyoming. Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi indicate that these candidates have a winning probability of over 94% in the general election.Fairshake spokesperson Geoff Vetter stated that the organization has reserved $122 million for the fall elections. However, Fairshake also faced its biggest setback in Illinois, spending over $10 million in an attempt to prevent Democrat Juliana Stratton from securing the nomination but was unsuccessful. Additionally, the Fellowship PAC, supported by Cantor Fitzgerald and Anchorage Digital, has actually spent about $11 million, far less than the previously claimed $100 million; the Digital Freedom Fund, funded by the Winklevoss brothers with $21 million, has yet to engage in support for specific candidates.

According to a Reuters report, Polymarket's new Global Head of Research and Intelligence, Shana Bautista (former analyst at Coinbase, former investigator at the FBI), stated that as the U.S. midterm elections approach, Polymarket has established a system to identify unusual trading activities and will continue to prevent U.S. users from using its international platform to comply with the settlement agreement reached with U.S. regulators in 2022.In addition, Polymarket plans to launch a new webpage to publicly disclose the operational details of market integrity review mechanisms such as machine learning, blockchain analysis, and trading monitoring, and revealed that it has referred over 100 cases to law enforcement agencies.

Although Nvidia's upcoming earnings report and Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting are the main events of interest for investors this week, traders in the stock derivatives market have already begun preparing for potential volatility increases around the November U.S. midterm elections.Traders focused on volatility in the futures market linked to the VIX index have noted signs indicating that demand for hedging S&P 500 index volatility has increased before and after the elections. VIX futures expiring in September are currently trading at around 17.4, but October contracts have risen to 19, and November contracts have further increased to 19.7.Matthew Thompson, co-portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, stated, "The U.S. elections are approaching, and you are entering a time window where the elections will impact the VIX. You can already see this 'backwardation' in the term structure of VIX futures."A study by analysts at the Chicago Board Options Exchange Global Markets shows that since 1945, in 80% of midterm election years, actual volatility has been higher than the previous year, with an average increase of 3.5 volatility points. In years when both the White House and Congress are controlled by the same party, actual volatility increases by an average of 6 volatility points.

According to Reuters, the cryptocurrency advocacy organization Stand With Crypto, supported by Coinbase, announced endorsements for 32 incumbent congressional candidates for the midterm elections in November. All 32 candidates voted last year in favor of sending the cryptocurrency industry's top legislative priority, the CLARITY Act, out of the House of Representatives, which is currently stalled in the Senate due to opposition from some lawmakers.The list includes key allies in the cryptocurrency industry such as Republican Representatives Tom Emmer and Bill Huizenga, as well as Democratic Representatives Ritchie Torres and Josh Gottheimer, some of whom are facing fiercely competitive races.Mason Lynaugh, Executive Director of Stand With Crypto, stated, "In 2024, we proved that crypto voters are real, and in 2026, we want to demonstrate our organizational mobilization ability; our advocates are a voting bloc that can truly impact outcomes."Stand With Crypto was launched by Coinbase in 2023 to influence elections by mobilizing voters rather than through large-scale campaign spending, and it claims to have over 3 million registered "advocates." In 2024, the cryptocurrency industry invested $170 million to support congressional candidates, most of whom won, and pushed Congress to pass the GENIUS Act for stablecoin regulation. During this midterm election cycle, the cryptocurrency industry has already invested nearly $200 million through channels such as the Fairshake super PAC to continue solidifying its influence in Congress.

Fox News reporter Aishah Hasnie cited sources revealing that Trump will begin to utilize approximately $400 million from his personal super PAC "MAGA Inc" to support Republicans facing campaign pressure in the midterm elections this November.

Citi stated that it remains optimistic about the stock market performance and advises investors to consider increasing equity asset allocation if the market experiences a pullback before the U.S. midterm elections. It currently maintains an "overweight" view on U.S. stocks, believing that corporate earnings expectations are improving and the market liquidity environment is becoming more accommodative. Despite recent concerns related to artificial intelligence, there are no significant risk signals in the overall market.Citi continues to be optimistic about the U.S. stock market and believes that sector rotation may limit the market's downside potential. Historical data shows that the market often experiences a strong year-end performance following a weak phase before the U.S. midterm elections, suggesting that there may be opportunities to buy on dips currently.

A senior Iranian official stated that Tehran plans to attack oil export facilities in the Gulf region, targeting the Saudi Yanbu pipeline and the UAE Fujairah oil terminal, with the aim of driving up gasoline prices in the U.S. and influencing the midterm elections in November.The two facilities together handle about 5.5 million barrels of oil per day.