election

Prudential economist Robert Sockin stated that the split in the U.S. government after the midterm elections could lead to tariff rates increasing from about 10% to nearly 15%, maintaining inflationary momentum.Prudential expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 100 basis points, with the next rate hike occurring in December. The probability of the U.S. economy overheating is 40%, while the probability of a recession has been adjusted to about 25%.

More than a week after the "blue wave" in the U.S. midterm elections allowed the Democratic Party to gain control of both the House and Senate, there are still 14 election results yet to be announced. According to Stand With Crypto, the results that have been announced have increased the number of crypto supporters in both chambers, and the remaining elections may bring in more supporters. In the undecided House races, three candidates have received support from the crypto political action committee (PAC), and all candidates in these districts are classified as "strongly support crypto" or "undecided."Specifically, Alaska Congressman Nick Begich is currently leading, with Fairshake's Republican affiliate Defend American Jobs investing $508,000 in him during the primary in early August; the same PAC invested $150,600 in North Carolina's 7th District Congressman David Rouzer, who is also leading. Louisiana State Senator Blake Miguez will enter the runoff on December 12 against the state's 6th District Democrat Chauna Banks, with Fellowship PAC investing $250,000 in him. On November 11, the Associated Press determined that South Carolina's 2nd District incumbent Congressman Joe Wilson won, and Stand With Crypto rated him as "strongly support crypto." His victory brings the total number of crypto supporters in the House to 246 and opponents to 107, while the Senate has 50 supporters and 33 opponents.Lindsay Fraser, Chief Policy Officer of the Blockchain Association, stated that the undecided new lawmakers "represent an opportunity." She noted that nearly a quarter of the new Congress members are newcomers, many of whom have not given much thought to blockchain technology, which is akin to "a blank slate." The association plans to organize outreach activities in January next year to engage newly elected lawmakers, aiming to get more lawmakers into Stand With Crypto's A and B ratings. She also mentioned that age influences lawmakers' crypto voting tendencies more than party affiliation, with lawmakers under 55 being significantly more likely to support the industry, and the new Congress overall being younger; she hopes the industry can face two candidates with in-depth thoughts on the industry in the 2028 election, avoiding the industry's fate being dependent on a single election outcome.

10x Research, a cryptocurrency market research organization, stated that the average return of Bitcoin after the U.S. midterm elections is a decline of 13.6% in 1 month, a decline of 21.6% in 2 months, a decline of 13.3% in 4 months, an increase of 3.5% in 6 months, and an increase of 53.9% in 1 year.10x Research noted that this phase first experiences a pullback, followed by outperforming the S&P 500 index, the Nasdaq index, and gold within 12 months, with average returns during the same period being an increase of 14.3%, an increase of 23.1%, and an increase of 18.5%, respectively.10x Research indicated that from an 80-year historical perspective, the surge in volatility after elections typically corresponds to the exhaustion of cycles rather than structural institutional breaks. The organization stated that after the Democrats gained control of Congress, higher baseline deficit spending and welfare expansion would accelerate the trend of currency devaluation.10x Research also reviewed historical precedents of cycles after past midterm elections and explained why patient capital should view this pullback as an entry point, with discussions centered around the clearing events proposed after the midterm elections.

On November 11, B.AI announced that the API management page has completed a comprehensive experience upgrade, optimizing the model selection and API access process to help developers more efficiently find computing resources that fit their business needs.The new version of the page adds anchor navigation, allowing direct access to core modules with one click; it supports multi-dimensional filtering by brand and discount, quickly locating the required models; model versions and billing information are more transparent, and it integrates a "model ranking" quick reference for developers to compare selections. Welcome to visit chat.b.ai/chat to experience the new API page.

The prediction market platform Kalshi has launched a research grant program with a total amount of $1 million, intending to fund up to 50 independent studies that analyze the 2026 U.S. midterm elections using prediction market data. According to the official rules, eligible users can submit applications before 12:59 PM Beijing time on November 19.

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, published an article discussing the results of the U.S. midterm elections. He believes that the elections will not change the core issues facing the United States, such as debt, wealth and value divergence, geopolitical tensions, climate, and technology. Future conflicts between parties and within parties, as well as government dysfunction, may intensify.Dalio pointed out that funding issues will soon come to the forefront: on December 11, Trump's temporary funding will expire, and the federal debt is expected to hit its ceiling by March 2027. By the fall of 2027, the Treasury is expected to exhaust its funding maneuvering options. He believes that the related conflicts may be quite intense, and uncertainty could push up short-term yields such as U.S. Treasury bills, exacerbating concerns about liquidity and credit risk, and weakening the status of U.S. Treasuries as a major global safe collateral.He also stated that Elizabeth Warren's appointment as chair of the Senate Banking Committee could trigger conflicts and changes that impact the economy and markets. The election results will make Trump a targeted lame-duck president, weakening the United States' international standing and potentially leading to a strategic contraction of the U.S., increasing the influence of regional powers like China.

Former U.S. President Trump posted on social media, questioning the legitimacy of the midterm elections, claiming that there were irregularities with early voting and voting machines. Trump also questioned why there was such a large discrepancy between election polls and results, but did not provide evidence of fraud.

According to a report by the American financial media Semafor, a memorandum shows that Public First Action, associated with the artificial intelligence company Anthropic, and its affiliated super political action committee believe that AI safety advocates view the U.S. midterm elections as a significant victory and are formulating the next phase of their action plan.Public First, which has received substantial funding from Anthropic and advocates for regulatory safeguards for artificial intelligence, stated that the super political action committee Leading the Future, which supports AI development, has already "suffered a crushing defeat." The organization also warned that interpreting this round of elections and the decline of Leading the Future as the end of large tech companies' AI political strategies would be a mistake.The goals set by the organization for 2027 include: promoting legislation on AI in Congress that does not exclude states' rights to legislate independently, supporting candidates advocating for AI safety regulation, and utilizing the current $30 million in funds to counter the messages conveyed by the pro-AI development camp.

According to a report by the Korean News Agency, South Korean Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Lee Hae-joon stated at a plenary meeting of the National Assembly's Special Committee on Budget and Accounts that after the Democratic Party won the U.S. midterm elections, the market is concerned about stricter regulations on AI data centers, but "there are currently no special circumstances, and we need to observe for a while longer." He made this statement in response to a question from an opposition party member regarding whether the first project for investment in the U.S., a gas power plant, would be affected by political pressure.The First Secretary of the Ministry of Science and ICT of South Korea stated that if U.S. data center investments are hindered, large-scale data center operators may turn to South Korea, "the changes in the U.S. may present an opportunity for us," and the government is closely monitoring the situation and paying attention to its impact on the data center derivative industry and the reactions from the U.S. industry. Regarding the recent controversy surrounding NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang and whether it would affect the already agreed GPU supply, Lee Hae-joon responded, "It will proceed smoothly, and there will be no issues."

According to a report by Caixin, the CEO of UBS stated that the significant correction in the U.S. stock market's AI sector over the past few weeks is a correction of the previously overly high expectations for the sector.He also acknowledged that the results of the U.S. midterm elections could slow down investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure, delaying the pace at which the AI industry realizes its value, and advised clients not to overly focus on short-term political issues when making asset allocations.

According to Politico, platforms including the prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket may face stricter regulations after the Democrats won the midterm elections.Politico stated that during Trump's term, regulators had a relatively lenient attitude towards prediction markets, which facilitated their rapid expansion in areas such as politics, sports, and stocks. Several Democratic lawmakers, including Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley, criticized such markets for allowing betting on sensitive events like elections, wars, and assassinations, and called for stronger legislative constraints.

According to The Block, after conducting on-chain analysis of the Polymarket account dubdubdub2, which was questioned by The New York Times, it was found that the trader has been engaging in large-scale speculation and DeFi trading for a long time, holding relevant election positions until settlement, rather than profiting immediately after the polls were released.Transaction records also indicate that the trader may have continued to place bets 10 minutes after the Nebraska poll was released. Two interviewed experts believe that the existing evidence does not strongly indicate wrongdoing, but it cannot be completely ruled out. Polymarket previously stated that it is investigating.

Former U.S. President Trump stated that with the results of the last election, the United States has taken a significant step backward in history— even the stock market, which had "soared like a rocket" during the Trump administration, evaporated 3 trillion dollars in just one day. But do not worry, we will definitely make a comeback, stronger and more glorious than ever before.

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated that she does not believe the results of the U.S. midterm elections will hinder the AI revolution. She believes that the uncertainty in the market is understandable, but the economy is on a stronger growth trajectory than most investors realize.She noted that the stock market began to factor in the possibility of an extended war in Iran and expectations of a Democratic sweep in the elections as early as May and June, and the rise in oil and gasoline prices has also increased the cost of living pressure on consumers. Voters concerned about household finances made the congressional election results appear more conservative than the headlines suggested.Cathie Wood expects that data center construction companies will pay more attention to local community concerns and provide and highlight more community benefits, including lowering property taxes, increasing high-paying jobs, promoting commercial development, and funding schools and cultural facilities.She stated that the productivity gains brought by AI are accelerating and expects these benefits to translate into higher wages, stronger profit margins, more investment, and lower prices, helping to alleviate cost of living pressures. The market is currently only beginning to experience the impact of this technological revolution.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, citing data from Stand With Crypto, the proportion of pro-cryptocurrency lawmakers among the winners of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections has risen to 69.5%, up from 2024. Bitcoin Magazine states that cryptocurrency is a bipartisan issue.

According to CNBC, OpenAI's Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar stated in an interview on the 6th local time that although the 2026 U.S. midterm elections changed the political landscape in Congress, the company's IPO plans have not been affected. Friar said that the team's job is to respond to various situations and does not believe anything has had a significant impact on the company.Friar reiterated OpenAI's goal to go public next year. She revealed that OpenAI will not stop investing in large data centers and is trying to redefine these facilities as "computing power parks" to meet customer needs and continue financing. Friar also stated that OpenAI is currently performing well, with a 70% increase in revenue in the third quarter and a doubling of enterprise sales. She looks forward to OpenAI's IPO, believing that going public aligns with the mission of making artificial intelligence accessible to everyone, and asked, "Why should only institutions benefit from these gains?"