Macroeconomic Research and Trends

The cryptocurrency industry may gradually shift from the hype of native altcoins to real asset tokenization, on-chain machine economy, and a more mature industrialization phase.

The prices in this window are determined by emotions, amplified by leverage, driven by war narratives—rather than by crude oil supply and demand.

Currently, we need to wait for Walsh to modify the FIMA rules to pave the way for Japan to borrow from the Federal Reserve.

Wang Si stated that the US-Iran conflict has "entered a middle stage," and the US is comprehensively using diplomatic, economic, and military means; Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Milley privately told the White House that there is a need to "find an exit" for the conflict, as ammunition stocks have fallen to "dangerously low levels"; on the same day, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Zolghadr, laid out six conditions for reopening the Strait: never threaten Iran, end aggression, withdraw troops, compensate for war losses, lift sanctions, and unfreeze assets.

Timiraos believes that the signals provided by the July non-farm payroll report are confusing, and this ambiguity in the report is "unlikely to significantly change" the Federal Reserve's current focus on inflation; if future inflation data is moderate, the Fed will have more reason to keep interest rates unchanged, while strong data will lead more decision-makers to support interest rate hikes. Wall Street economists generally view this as a jobs report that can provide justification for both hawks and doves.

The U.S. labor market has shown significant signs of cooling, prompting the market to quickly reprice its expectations for the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Informed sources indicate that although Waller has suggested the possibility of reducing the Federal Reserve's $6.7 trillion balance sheet to tighten monetary policy, interest rates remain the primary tool and will be utilized in subsequent meetings if necessary.

In July, the ADP private sector in the United States added only 44,000 jobs, hitting a new low for the year and falling short of expectations. The goods-producing sector is under pressure, indicating a cooling labor market. However, the salaries of employees who switched jobs grew strongly by 7% year-on-year, suggesting that structural tensions remain. The market is paying attention to Friday's non-farm payroll data; if the trends align, it will confirm the robustness of employment and provide support for the Federal Reserve to continue focusing on combating inflation.

The United States and Japan have unprecedentedly joined forces to intervene in the market to support the yen, causing the yen exchange rate to rebound sharply from a nearly 40-year low to 157.40 within two days. As Japan is forced to sell U.S. Treasury bonds to defend its currency, coupled with tech giants shifting from being savers to credit consumers, the yen arbitrage logic that has underpinned the global financial system for decades is collapsing, and a major transformation to reshape the new structure of the global macroeconomy has already begun.

According to media reports, Waller has proposed considering a reduction in the number of regular interest rate meetings held each year, breaking the practice established since 1981; specific arrangements may be finalized before the next interest rate meeting in mid-September. This move will compress the window for the market to obtain policy signals and reduce the Federal Reserve's responsiveness to changes in inflation and employment, consistent with the style of increasing opacity that has characterized his tenure.