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leverage

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The AI boom has boosted the enthusiasm for "leveraged stock trading" in Japan, with the scale of retail investors' margin trading doubling in six months, reaching the highest level since 2016

According to the Nikkei News, individual investors in the Japanese stock market are accelerating their use of leverage to bet on AI trends. As of July, the amount of credit trading by individual investors in the Japanese stock market reached 123 trillion yen (approximately 1.09 trillion yuan), doubling since the beginning of the year and reaching the highest level since related statistics began in 2016.Data shows that in June, the scale of credit trading by Japanese individual investors hit a historical high, and in July it continued to maintain a high level. At the same time, the proportion of credit trading in the overall trading amount of individual investors rose to 83%, also setting a new record.AI concept stocks have become the main driving force behind the surge in credit trading, among which the credit buy balance of AI storage concept stock Kioxia reached 13.23 million shares as of August 7, making it one of the popular targets.Benefiting from the recent rise in the Japanese stock market, the overall performance of leveraged investors has been decent. The floating yield of credit trading investors briefly turned positive in June, although it fell back to a loss of 8.4% by the end of July, it is still better than the average loss level of the past 10 years (-10.2%).

CryptoQuant founder admits mistake, misinterprets CME positions, leveraged funds still maintain net short positions in BTC

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform, correcting the previous analysis of CME Bitcoin futures positions, stating that "Total Reportables (large institutional traders)" was mistakenly labeled as "Leveraged Funds," leading to the belief that CME hedge funds rarely turned into net long positions in BTC futures. However, the actual situation is that leveraged funds still maintain net short positions in BTC futures.Ki Young Ju provided CFTC futures position data as of August 4: 1. Large institutional traders overall show a slight net long position, which includes asset management institutions, market makers, dealers, etc. Ki Young Ju stated that although the net long extent is limited, the previous judgment about institutional direction being bullish still holds. 2. Leveraged funds still maintain net short positions in BTC futures, but over the past year, their standard BTC futures net short position has decreased by about 50% (measured in BTC), mainly due to the decline in basis trading returns. When the futures basis returns fell below U.S. Treasury yields, the arbitrage space narrowed. Leveraged funds currently show a net long position in Micro BTC futures, but the scale is small, only about +394 BTC, which is approximately 1% of the standard BTC futures net short position. Ki Young Ju indicated that leveraged funds overall have not yet turned into net long positions, but their long-term structural shorts are clearly weakening, which may reflect the closing of arbitrage trades and adjustments in directional positions.

In two months, 3.7 billion won in fees were collected, and the trading volume of South Korean leveraged ETFs plummeted by 90% after regulatory intervention

Retail investors in South Korea are shifting their focus from the growth story of asset management companies to market stability issues in the eyes of regulators, surrounding high-leverage trading of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.Since their debut on May 27, the first batch of single-stock leveraged products in South Korea has quickly become one of the most crowded trades in the current semiconductor rally of the Korean stock market. Sixteen single-stock ETFs and two ETNs designed around Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix allow investors to make directional bets of about 2 times on a single stock. The launch of these products coincided with the warming of the AI storage cycle, leading to a surge of retail funds into the market, pushing the total assets of the Korean ETF market to a historical high at one point.Winners on the fee side quickly emerged. Estimated by net asset size and fee rates, these single-stock leveraged ETFs generated nearly 3.7 billion won in management fees after about two months of operation. Samsung Asset Management took the lion's share due to the scale advantage and higher fee rates of its KODEX products, while Future Asset offered lower fees to gain market share. Early data from Korean media has shown that Samsung and Future Asset together account for over 90% of the net assets of such products, with liquidity further concentrating on leading products.However, this fee feast has also come with significant side effects. In mid-July, the South Korean Financial Services Commission stated that the market value and trading volume of single-stock leveraged products rose rapidly after their launch, with the weight of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in KOSPI once reaching 52%. Regulators also pointed out that the volatility of global storage stocks has significantly increased, and the high volatility of individual stocks like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, combined with product rebalancing trades, could amplify market shocks.Subsequently, South Korean authorities accelerated the tightening of regulations. Starting from July 31, the minimum margin requirement for individual investors investing in such products was raised from 10 million won to 30 million won, and cash was required to meet this requirement, with alternative securities no longer accepted; regulators also suspended the launch of related new products, restricted advertising, and strengthened spread management and investor education.There are signs that trading enthusiasm has cooled. Data from the Korean Exchange shows that after the introduction of new regulations, the daily trading volume of the 16 related single-stock leveraged/inverse ETFs dropped from about 10 to 12 trillion won (peaking at 15 to 20 trillion won) to around 1 trillion won (on August 3-4), and on August 5, it fell to as low as 919.8 billion won (first time below 1 trillion). There has been a slight rebound recently, with the trading volume of the 16 related ETFs at about 7.45 trillion won on July 27.
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