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Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: The leverage liquidation in the cryptocurrency market has been relatively sufficient, and the short-term space for further decline is limited

In October, the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations. After the data was released, BTC briefly fell to around $73,000, and the market began to bet on a 50 basis point rate hike in December. In response, Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the probability of a 50 basis point hike is low, and a 25 basis point increase remains the baseline scenario. The current decline is more akin to a pricing correction.There are three reasons: The Federal Reserve values the continuity of data, and historically, there are very few cases where a single month's CPI jump has changed the pace of rate hikes; a single month of exceeding expectations is insufficient to overturn the gradual path; the current inflation stickiness mainly stems from the lagged transmission of tariffs and rents, which will naturally diminish, and marginal employment is also weakening. The committee has no reason to impose aggressive tightening at the peak of transmission; the credit spread has widened from 93 basis points to 348 basis points, financial conditions have effectively tightened, and adding another 50 basis points would actively create financial stability risks.In the crypto market, funding rates have turned negative, and the open interest in perpetual contracts has decreased by nearly 20% in a week. The fear and greed index has fallen into the deep fear zone, and the clearing of leverage has been relatively sufficient, limiting the space for further short-term declines. However, an oversold situation does not mean an immediate rebound; confirmation is needed for CPI to fall in the next two months. If inflation exceeds expectations for two consecutive months and a 50 basis point hike is realized, a trend decline will begin, but currently, this scenario seems unlikely.Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

first_img Crypto.com and OG.com launched U.S. crypto perpetual contracts with up to 5x leverage

Crypto.com and its derivatives partner OG.com began offering crypto perpetual contracts to eligible U.S. traders on Tuesday. The contract offers up to 5x leverage, allowing traders to bet on the price movements of crypto assets without an expiration date, and provides take-profit and stop-loss orders as well as isolated margin features.Crypto.com stated that it has recently registered as an introducing broker with the National Futures Association in the U.S. to offer the aforementioned perpetual contract products. These products operate through OG.com on exchanges, clearinghouses, and futures commission merchants regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This launch follows the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's decision in May to open the U.S. market to crypto perpetual contracts.Previously, the agency approved Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual contracts and provided Coinbase with no-action relief to offer digital commodity derivatives; Kraken launched U.S. perpetual contracts on Kraken Pro in June after acquiring Bitnomial. Crypto.com is also advancing its stock derivatives business, with OG.com’s exchange Nadex registering last month with the Securities and Exchange Commission to trade securities futures. CEO Kris Marszalek stated at that time that the company is working with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer individual stock perpetual futures.
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