hawkish

Federal Reserve spokesperson Nick Timiraos stated that the July inflation report was largely in line with market expectations, easing the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.Wall Street is focused on CPI data, with some officials believing it is necessary to maintain higher interest rates, arguing that the current level of rates is restrictive and that the high inflation is due to external shocks rather than loose monetary policy.

According to Gate's latest weekly report, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, but hawkish expectations have risen. The high interest rate environment combined with the deleveraging effects of derivatives has put overall pressure on the crypto market, with BTC and ETH dropping approximately 2.8% and 3.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks continued to recover last week. In terms of capital flow, BTC spot ETFs have turned to net outflows, while ETH spot ETFs still maintain a slight net inflow, showing some resilience in institutional capital allocation.On-chain, PancakeSwap's weekly trading volume surpassed Uniswap, and the Robinhood Chain, RWA, and Meme ecosystems remain active. In the derivatives market, BTC open interest (OI) rose and then fell, with funding rates remaining positive, and DVOL continuing to decline, while the market overall still maintains high-level fluctuations.In response to the evolving macro policies, institutional capital flows, and on-chain ecosystems, Gate is continuously building a multi-asset trading system covering digital assets, stocks, indices, foreign exchange, and commodities. Relying on institutional-level trading, liquidity, custody, lending, asset management, and API services, it provides professional investors with a one-stop institutional solution.At the same time, Gate is continuously improving its global institutional ecosystem layout, strengthening trading execution efficiency, cross-market liquidity, and risk management capabilities, helping institutional clients respond more efficiently to market fluctuations and seize global asset allocation and structural trading opportunities.

According to Jinshi, three Federal Reserve officials support interest rate hikes, and internal hawkish pressure is increasing.Federal Reserve Chairman Waller is considering reducing the frequency of policy meetings, and Musalem stated that the bond sell-off is raising warnings about the Federal Reserve's credibility.Federal Reserve's Barkin pointed out that whether interest rates are high enough remains an "open question."

BIT Official released a weekly report stating that the trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has fallen by 80% from its peak, and has contracted by about 60% from the peak in the fourth quarter of 2025; the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has also dropped by 50%. The report points out that if the trading volume cannot effectively recover, the market will struggle to form a sustained rebound.Despite the market still digesting the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the stalled progress of the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range between $62,000 and $66,000, and BIT Official expects Bitcoin to eventually break upward. The report states that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh has recently adopted a "say less, do less" communication strategy, and the uncertainty of his policy stance is disturbing the market. Walsh has been known for his hawkish stance over the past twenty years, but the market had previously anticipated that he might push for a more dovish monetary policy under Trump's support; if this change materializes, it could be beneficial for Bitcoin.In addition, predictive market data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law before the end of 2026 is currently only 32%. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Senate will prioritize other issues, and as the August recess approaches, the remaining legislative window for this bill is further narrowing.

Today, Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang analyzes the latest Fed interest rate decision and market trends. He pointed out that although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, the 3 dissenting votes supporting a rate hike indicate a strengthening of internal hawkish forces. Coupled with sticky inflation and geopolitical risks, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in September have risen to 72%, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher and further suppressing U.S. stock valuations.Combining technical analysis and practical operations, Lewis Huang stated that as rate hike expectations ferment, technology stocks and overall market valuations face significant pressure, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices showing clear bearish signals; on the other hand, the U.S. dollar index is likely to remain strong under hawkish support, while oil shows resilience supported by geopolitical situations.He suggests that CFD traders should align with the macro theme of "tightening expectations" at this stage, closely monitor the upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting guidance, and flexibly seize both long and short trading opportunities, such as shorting indices at high levels and going long on the dollar in forex.

According to Jinshi reports, institutions are conducting a forward-looking analysis of the voting situation at the Federal Reserve meeting. TD Securities and JPMorgan expect two hawkish dissenting votes, mainly from Harker and Logan. Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Citibank believe that one or two officials may dissent in support of a rate hike.UBS predicts that if the interest rate remains unchanged, there will likely be 8 to 10 votes in favor. Prediction markets indicate that the probability of Harker and Logan casting dissenting votes is both 58%.

According to Jinshi reports, Paul Zangieri, a senior economist at Prudential Investment, is closely monitoring the communication wording of the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the FOMC will "maintain or even strengthen its hawkish tone," as ongoing inflation, rising oil prices, and internal disagreements within the FOMC open the door for further tightening of policies later this year.

According to Jinshi reports, the International Financial Association pointed out that the Federal Reserve is becoming more hawkish, and with the resurgence of oil price fluctuations, this may tighten U.S. dollar liquidity and raise the risk threshold for emerging markets.

According to Jinshi reports, data shows that forex traders, including hedge funds, are buying options in large quantities, betting that the dollar will strengthen further after the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals this week. Leveraged funds began buying dollar call options on Wednesday, and this demand continued into Thursday as investors digested the anti-inflation remarks from the new Federal Reserve Chair, Waller. Tobias Jungmann, head of forex options at Bank of America, stated that the buying of dollar call options is heavily concentrated in G-10 currencies. James Swindell, a forex options trader at Barclays, also noted a significant increase in demand for dollar call options, particularly in the euro/dollar and pound/dollar pairs.

According to Jinshi reports, Kay Haigh of Goldman Sachs Asset Management stated that the "unequivocally hawkish" message from Walsh surprised the market, as it prioritized curbing inflation. The market believes that the probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September has exceeded 80%, and expects more than one rate hike in October. Haigh predicts that the volatility of 2-year Treasury bonds will significantly increase in the future, as the market refocuses on inflation issues, with the long end of the yield curve stabilizing. On Wednesday, the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasuries surged by 13 basis points, marking the largest increase since April 2025.

The Federal Reserve has released a hawkish signal, putting pressure on gold prices to decline. According to CoinGlass data, gold (XAUT) is currently priced at $4280.41, down 0.62% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the total 24-hour trading volume of XAUT across the network reached $293 million, with the Gate platform performing particularly well, recording a 24-hour trading volume of $26.6557 million for its XAUT/USDT trading pair, and a 7-day trading volume exceeding $131 million, both ranking in the top two globally. In addition, the total 24-hour trading volume of XAUT contracts across the network reached $1.138 billion, with the Gate platform's position size around $11.9 million, ranking third among global exchanges.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 3.5% - 3.75%, but the dot plot released hawkish signals, weakening support for risk assets.As a result, Bitcoin fell about 4% from around $66,400, dropping below $64,000, and there has not yet been a significant bottom-buying interest; gold, on the other hand, quickly rebounded above $4,300 after a dip.

Trader Ansem posted that Warsh and the hawkish FOMC may put pressure on risk assets, expecting that risk assets will generally decline, while BTC has shown relative weakness compared to most assets. He believes that BTC's failure to break through the weekly resistance across multiple time frames may lead to another test of the range's low point.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve's dot plot shows a clear hawkish tendency, leading to a sharp decline in Shanghai gold and silver futures at the opening. Goldman Sachs has issued a warning that the hawkish shift is not solely due to oil, and when precious metal prices will stabilize remains a focal point of market attention.

According to Jinshi reports, emerging market stock indices erased their gains due to the Federal Reserve's shift to a hawkish policy.