waller

The Federal Reserve's FOMC unanimously decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023. The latest dot plot shows that 16 officials expect at least one more rate hike by 2026, with the median rate expectations for 2027 and 2026 both at 4.1%.Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that recent data shows the U.S. economy is performing strongly, and the labor market remains resilient, but inflation is too high and has persisted for too long. The FOMC is currently not confident that inflation is moving toward the 2% target. He mentioned that the main issue for the current economy is not growth, but inflation. Waller also noted that the rise in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily driven by a strong U.S. economy, increased capital competition, and geopolitical factors.From the announcement of the decision to Waller's press conference, spot gold briefly fell by about $100, the U.S. dollar index rose by about 40 points and broke through the 100 mark, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by about 10 basis points, and the 10-year yield rose by about 5 basis points, with U.S. stocks turning lower across the board. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in an additional rate hike of about 33 basis points this year and expect a cumulative increase of about 75 basis points by June next year.

The Director of the National Economic Council of the White House, Hassett, stated that Trump and I respect any decision made by Federal Reserve Chairman Waller tomorrow.

Jefferies global economist Mohit Kumar stated in a report that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates this week and believes that Waller's comments are crucial. He said, "We expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, but Waller's comments on the future direction of policy will be key."Regarding further rate hikes, Jefferies believes that the actual actions of the Federal Reserve will be fewer than the 3.5 rate hikes anticipated by the forward market. Kumar said, "From a credibility standpoint, the first rate hike may be necessary, but subsequent hikes will depend on how long the war lasts and the trend of oil prices."

Stubborn high inflation has led Trump to confront Federal Reserve Chairman Waller this week, as the market prepares for the Fed to raise interest rates despite the president's demands.Economists warn that if the Fed does not support a rate hike on Wednesday, its "credibility" will be at risk. Trump reiterated that the U.S. should have the "lowest interest rates in the world" and may be dissatisfied with a rate increase.

CITIC Securities research report states that in August 2026, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was significantly higher than expected, with notable contributions from the leisure hotel and healthcare industries, and a rebound in local government education positions. In the private sector, the goods-producing sector added jobs for the sixth consecutive month, possibly reflecting the demand for data center construction in the United States. The decline in employment in the finance and information technology sectors reflects the impact of AI.The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, rounded to two decimal places as 4.14%, and the labor force participation rate rebounded from 61.4% to 61.6%, while the continuous decline in participation rates for those aged 45-54 still needs to be monitored. The strong non-farm data in August and the dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Waller offset each other, leading the market to reprice the probability of a rate hike in September at around 60%. The focus will next be on the August CPI to be released on September 11.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if the inflation data in August performs strongly, he will consider supporting an interest rate hike in September. Communication regarding the reaction function helps the public plan, and a significant acceleration in inflation may not be necessary to support a tighter policy stance.

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang stated that the hawkish remarks made by Powell at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference have shifted the market's focus from whether there will be a rate hike in September to the possibility that the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a longer period before inflation clearly falls back to the 2% target, and even retain the option for further tightening of policies.Lewis Huang pointed out that if subsequent CPI, PCE, and employment data continue to be strong, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar index may remain strong, putting continued pressure on gold from the dual forces of rising real interest rates and a strengthening dollar, which may also amplify the volatility of high-valuation tech stocks like the Nasdaq 100.Conversely, if inflation significantly cools and the labor market weakens, the market may lower its rate hike expectations, leading to a decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, providing support for gold and growth stocks.He added that besides the Federal Reserve's policy statements, traders should also pay attention to whether the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is influenced by factors such as fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, and rising term premiums.Before and after the release of major data, it is recommended to moderately control leverage and assess market direction based on the interrelationship between the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, gold, and stock indices.

Nick Timiraos, the "Fed Whisperer," stated that Fed Chair Waller has quelled some concerns about his strategy to combat inflation, but has also laid the groundwork for a larger test that may come in three weeks. If the Fed raises interest rates, it could anger the White House just weeks before the midterm elections. If they hold steady, it may reignite the doubts that Waller's remarks have calmed.Two points from Waller's speech on Friday particularly suggest that the Fed may raise rates next month. The first point is that Waller finds it difficult to describe the current financial conditions as restrictive. The second point is that the relatively positive inflation data over the summer has not convinced him that the underlying trend is improving. The Fed's default choice before Friday was to hold steady unless the data was strong enough to warrant action.Former Fed Vice Chair Cohen stated that Waller's remarks have reversed this logic. "He has changed the original assumption; it is now that they will raise rates unless the data shows it is unnecessary." This means that the final decision will depend on changes in the situation before the September meeting, especially the August CPI released on September 11. Cohen stated that if the data indicates that action is unnecessary, the Fed should not raise rates; if the data is strong, it could weaken the argument that inflation is moving back toward the Fed's 2% target.

Economists expect that the monthly employment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday will show an increase of 55,000 non-farm jobs in August, following an unexpected decline in July's employment numbers. If so, this result will roughly align with the average monthly increase so far this year. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Analyst Anna Wong stated that Waller's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole has increased the likelihood of a rate hike in September and changed market expectations on how to interpret next week's data. The August non-farm employment report remains a headline figure, but the anticipated weak performance may not have as decisive an impact as usual. Waller described the labor market as being in good health and noted that a slowdown in job growth is often a demographic issue rather than an economic recession.

StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada stated that Waller's speech on Friday night was considered quite hawkish. Waller mentioned in his forward guidance what the market expected him to say, namely that he does not believe in forward guidance, thus refusing to pre-commit to a rate hike in September. However, this did not stop the market from speculating that a rate hike might indeed be back on the table. Regarding inflation, Waller stated that anti-inflation remains a clear priority and elaborated on this in some detail, but he also added that he is confident that core inflation is moving towards the Federal Reserve's target.Overall, his speech was more hawkish than the market had anticipated. During Waller's speech at Jackson Hole, the market significantly repriced the September Federal Reserve decision, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike jumping from 30% to about 50%. Before the September Federal Reserve meeting, there will also be a non-farm payroll report and a CPI inflation report, along with some minor data releases. Under the new chair's leadership, the Federal Reserve has become more data-dependent. Given that the recent U.S. employment reports have consistently fallen short of expectations, and by a significant margin, any further signs of weakness could severely undermine market expectations for a rate hike in September.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin failed to effectively break through the $80,000 mark, with BTC/USD dropping to $78,442 on the Bitstamp platform, a decline of about 1% for the day, after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh delivered a cautiously toned speech in Jackson Hole. In his speech, Walsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to the 2% inflation target and downplayed the significance of the recent decline in CPI and PCE data.Walsh stated that although these broad inflation indicators have significantly retreated from their highs a few years ago, the progress over the past two years has been relatively modest. The better-than-expected PCE and CPI readings this summer do not indicate that the underlying trend has materially improved. He also noted that the forward guidance, a conventional practice introduced during the financial crisis, "is now outdated" and will not return in the future. U.S. stocks were not weighed down by his remarks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both rising by about 0.5%.On-chain data shows that there is a dense resistance zone between the current spot price and $86,000, which suppresses upward momentum. QCP Capital analysis pointed out that even if the price breaks through, the derivatives market needs to support it by controlling funding rates and the growth rate of open interest. The key is whether the subsequent market movement is driven by spot participation or leveraged positions. As of the time of writing, BTC/USD has risen 26.35% this month, marking the best August performance since 2017.

According to Gate market data, since Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech, spot gold and silver have significantly retreated in the short term. Gold rebounded slightly after falling about 100 dollars from its high, reaching a low of 4530 dollars/ounce and currently reported at 4560 dollars/ounce; silver plummeted over 1 dollar during the day, hitting a low of 68.1 dollars/ounce and currently reported at 69.0 dollars/ounce.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated on Friday that if policymakers cannot be confident that inflation is "declining at a clear and sufficiently rapid pace" back to 2%, the Fed "has work to do." This suggests that if price pressures do not improve, the Fed may raise interest rates next.Waller made it clear that he still adheres to the Fed's long-standing policy path of managing inflation through interest rate adjustments. This significantly increases the likelihood of the Fed's next step being a rate hike, which could create a divergence between him and President Trump, who has long sought rate cuts. This statement essentially eliminated the ambiguity that had been left previously. At the press conference at the end of July, Waller declined to respond extensively to whether a rate hike was needed to address the inflation issue, which has significantly risen this year and has been above the Fed's target for more than five consecutive years.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated, "Although the PCE and CPI data released this summer were better than expected, they did not convince me that there has been a meaningful improvement in the underlying trend of inflation." "Market prices reflect that the market believes we will achieve price stability. I can assure you that the market's judgment is correct."Waller then stated that with inflation rates above 2%, the Federal Reserve's "current top priority should be prices." This highly anticipated speech by Waller comes at a time when there is criticism of its streamlined communication strategy. Economists and market participants believe that this strategy lacks clear articulation regarding the recent economic and monetary policy outlook.Waller's speech seems to address these concerns, as he elaborated more deeply than before on his views regarding the economic situation and the focus of Federal Reserve policy under his leadership. He said, "Let us also clarify another aspect of our goals: price stability will not be achieved automatically, and inflation will not necessarily return on its own. Achieving price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve." It is expected that Waller will not answer questions posed by on-site central bank officials and economists.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller warned that inflation has not shown meaningful signs of slowing down and stated that policymakers must be confident that inflation is moving in the right direction; otherwise, the central bank "has work to do." Waller reiterated that the Federal Reserve will bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target. He stated that this is a clear and fixed goal.Waller said, "My standard is that we must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward our target, and the pace must be clear enough and fast enough. Otherwise, we have work to do. That is our responsibility."Waller also stated that current financial conditions are not restrictive, and interest rates are the "primary tool" for the Federal Reserve to fulfill its responsibilities.