macro

According to CoinDesk, the "credit pulse" indicator, which measures the speed of new credit in China relative to GDP changes, is flashing red. The Bloomberg China Credit Pulse Index recently reported 20.84 points, the lowest level since 2008. This indicator was proposed by economist Michael Biggs in 2008 and is considered related to the global manufacturing cycle, leading S&P 500 returns by about 12 months.Albert Edwards, a strategist at Société Générale, warned that ignoring China's recent monetary tightening could become "the biggest investment mistake of the decade." Despite the weakening indicators, Bitcoin surged 25% in August and briefly broke through $80,000, mainly driven by inflows from U.S. spot ETFs, short covering, and a catch-up rally of previously lagging assets compared to the stock market.Looking ahead, there are two scenarios: one is that Bitcoin continues to rise, as current crypto trading is primarily driven by U.S. institutional funds, reducing sensitivity to signals from China's credit conditions; the other is that if U.S. stocks decline as Edwards predicts, risk aversion may spill over into Bitcoin. Which scenario will materialize remains to be seen.

According to Cointelegraph, the U.S. Department of Commerce has officially adopted Chainlink to publish core macroeconomic data on-chain, covering key indicators such as actual GDP, PCE price index, and real final sales of private domestic purchasers, marking the first deep integration of traditional government data with blockchain infrastructure.

Greeks.live researcher Adam stated: "I see some people discussing the Strategy to restart buying coins. This short-term stimulus does not affect the long-term trend, and the Strategy is also a big trap. BTC now has no possibility of market manipulation, and no one can predict the trend. It can only be said that after the Strategy has floating profits, there is more room to buy coins. Looking at the long term, the overall ETF is still flowing out, and it is very difficult to stabilize at $80,000, with significant selling pressure.On the macro front, whether it is the Federal Reserve's hawkish remarks or the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, both are challenging the already fragile investors. The short-term volatility is decreasing rapidly, and it is difficult to support a bull market with just one bullish candle. I hope that after a slight correction, it can reach above $85,000; otherwise, arbitrageurs and sellers will create significant selling pressure. The Gex at the end of the month is gathering, and we need to maintain this momentum."

According to Reuters, Yorkville America, the asset management company responsible for managing the Truth Social brand ETF under Trump, is nearing the completion of an acquisition deal aimed at further expanding its product line by acquiring an institutional asset management company. The deal is expected to be completed in September.Yorkville CEO Steve Neamtz stated that this acquisition will be an important step in the company's strategic expansion, pushing its business from the current product line focused on "America First" themed ETFs into a broader digital asset management field. Neamtz added that this marks Yorkville's first entry into the digital assets and cryptocurrency products sector, and the company has already submitted applications to launch approximately 12 additional ETFs in the coming weeks to months, covering various themes such as the digital economy and macro strategies.Meanwhile, Yorkville also announced the launch of the MANGOS Plus Index ETF, which will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NYSE Texas. This is Yorkville's first ETF not managed under the Truth Social brand, primarily betting on popular companies in the AI industry chain. The index tracked by this ETF includes companies such as Meta, Anthropic, NVIDIA, Alphabet, OpenAI, and SpaceX, while also incorporating AI concept stocks like Micron and SanDisk.

According to Jinshi reports, the main theme of this week's market is dominated by changes in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. After Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech on Friday, the dollar quickly surged, closing at 99.69, up 0.85% for the week. Against the backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, gold faced overall pressure, falling 3.24% for the week; spot silver dropped 3.82% this week.Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time): Monday is pending, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will be held until September 1; Tuesday at 17:00, Eurozone August CPI data; Eurozone July unemployment rate; Tuesday at 22:00, U.S. August ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. July JOLTs job openings, U.S. July construction spending month-on-month; Tuesday is pending, the 2026 SCO member states heads of state council meeting will be held; Wednesday at 20:15, U.S. August ADP employment change; Wednesday at 22:00, U.S. July factory orders month-on-month; Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday at 16:00, Eurozone August Services PMI final value; Thursday at 17:00, Eurozone July PPI month-on-month; Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will be interviewed; Friday at 03:00, 2026 FOMC voting member Harker will deliver an opening speech at the "Federal Reserve Community" event; Friday at 20:30, U.S. August unemployment rate, U.S. August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, U.S. August average hourly earnings year-on-year and month-on-month.The highlight of next week's data will be the U.S. August employment report on Friday. This report is the last employment data before the September 16 interest rate meeting and is a key window to assess the policy path after Waller's hawkish stance. Previously, Nvidia's strong performance and an expected revenue growth of about 70% for the next fiscal year have reignited enthusiasm for AI trading. Dell (DELL.O) will release its second-quarter earnings report after the market closes on Tuesday (September 1), with the market expecting an adjusted earnings per share of $4.91, more than doubling from the same period last year. Broadcom (AVGO.O) will release its third-quarter earnings report for fiscal year 2026 after the market closes on Wednesday (September 2).

Fidelity Global Macro Research Director Jurrien Timmer stated that Bitcoin has maintained its power law curve bottom and has adjusted long enough to meet the time factor of the four-year cycle.

Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, stated that the macro investment logic for Bitcoin is continuously strengthening. Even though regulatory issues have temporarily taken a backseat, fiscal concerns continue to drive demand for Bitcoin in the market.Mitchnick pointed out that the fiscal pressures in the current macro environment have become an important factor supporting Bitcoin's appeal, further reinforcing its narrative as a hedging tool. This perspective reflects institutions' ongoing focus on Bitcoin's long-term macro positioning.

Real Vision founder Raoul Pal stated that the charts he closely monitors show that Bitcoin has entered an oversold zone of more than two standard deviations relative to the Nasdaq and is currently rising rapidly. He mentioned that he will continue to observe but believes that in the long term, crypto assets should outperform the Nasdaq.Raoul Pal pointed out that such long-term structural trends are of significant reference value for asset allocation. This view is based on the relative strength performance of Bitcoin against the Nasdaq.

Strive CEO Matt Cole posted on the X platform, stating that for the past decade, he has believed that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is in a structural downtrend, and it may currently be approaching a larger downward phase, which will have a significant impact on Bitcoin.If this judgment holds, the next 5 to 7 years could become one of the most favorable macro environments in Bitcoin's history.

According to QCP, the preliminary consumer confidence index for the University of Michigan in the U.S. dropped to 51 in August, and retail sales in July decreased by 0.6% month-on-month. Coupled with previous weak employment data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's short-term tightening policy have decreased.Federal funds futures indicate that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September is about 30%.

In July, the US CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year, overall in line with market expectations. As the market continues to assess the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy path, the impact of macro changes on asset allocation and trading strategies is continuously strengthening, further enhancing institutions' focus on liquidity management and trading execution efficiency.Against this backdrop, Gate institutions are continuously improving professional trading infrastructure. According to the transparency report released by the platform in July, Gate CrossEx added one mainstream exchange and 23 trading pairs, launched RPI Orders, reduced the highest fees of multiple exchanges by 50%, and introduced new APIs for market data, funding rates, batch order cancellations, and several WebSocket features; by optimizing concurrent order placement and execution feedback delays, system performance improved by 50%, while the launch of Colo services further reduced trading latency.In addition, SuperLink continues to optimize Fireblocks Gas management and settlement processes, further enhancing institutions' cross-platform asset management and trading collaboration capabilities. In the future, Gate institutions will continue to advance infrastructure upgrades around core capabilities such as trading execution, liquidity, and cross-platform collaboration, providing professional investors with more efficient and stable institutional-level trading services.

Bitfinex's latest report indicates that Bitcoin buying is returning, but the current rebound still mainly relies on improvements in the macroeconomic environment rather than catalysts from the cryptocurrency market itself.

According to Jinshi reports, French President Macron stated that the EU and its partners will continue to increase pressure on Russia, including through sanctions.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released the August Bitcoin market outlook, stating that BTC is currently down about 50% from the cycle high of $126,200 set in October 2025, with prices approaching the on-chain average holding cost. It is expected that August will likely maintain a volatile trend. The report suggests that the most probable scenario for August (with a probability of about 55%) is that BTC will trade in the range of $57,700 to $67,000, potentially closing at $60,000 to $64,000 by the end of the month.The bearish scenario (30% probability) involves a drop below $57,700, further testing the on-chain realized price of about $52,800; the bullish scenario (15% probability) requires a stable position above $67,000, along with continuous inflows of ETF funds, a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, and a weakening dollar, targeting $71,000 to $74,000. The current valuation is close to the on-chain cost area, and the spot Bitcoin ETF continues to see net inflows, providing support for the market; however, the high interest rate environment, sustained high U.S. Treasury yields, and a relatively strong dollar still limit the upside potential for risk assets. The report also reminds to pay attention to the impact of macro events such as U.S. non-farm employment, CPI, and the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting on market liquidity.

Analyst Murphy stated that there have been consecutive transfers of over 65,000 BTC in a single day in the past two days (excluding internal transfers within the same entity), leading to a significant decrease in the net holdings of long-term holders (LTH). He pointed out that LTH net holdings have changed the previously continuous upward trend since May, remaining stagnant until July, which is a rare phenomenon in the past year.Murphy mentioned that nearly 14,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges, for example, a publicly listed company under Trump transferred 2,628 BTC to the Crypto.com exchange, which is part of this. The remaining destinations and purposes of the LTH net reduction are still unknown.He also listed current macro-level risk points that may impact BTC, including the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut with a 9 to 3 split vote, conflicts in the Middle East and oil prices, the highly concentrated valuation of the AI sector in the US stock market relying on debt and private credit financing, and the yen carry trade positions accumulating again to a nearly historically extreme net short state, while also noting that the sensitivity of the current BTC chip structure may amplify the above risks.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "Trump Public Insult Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Emmanuel Macron" experienced significant fluctuations, rising from 2.1% an hour ago to the current 17.6% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Trump Public Insult Prediction" event's sub-market "Macron" saw the probability of the "yes" option experience severe fluctuations, dropping from 48% an hour ago to the current 25% (a fluctuation of 23%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.