macro

According to Bloomberg, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with analysts still leaning bullish, but the speculative market is shifting towards defense, putting pressure on risk appetite. Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 for the first time in nearly a month; affected by the sell-off in the U.S. stock market's AI sector, risk assets retreated, and the bullish sentiment that the cryptocurrency market was trying to rebuild was once again thwarted.Jeff Anderson, head of STS Digital in the U.S., stated that inflation data will "severely impact risk appetite," and the market is entering a quiet period before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with interest rate expectations still uncertain. Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, mentioned that in the past 24 hours, the market's pricing of Bitcoin's probability of rising to $100,000 before Christmas has decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 9.7%; long-term bullish bets have quickly retreated, short-term hedging demand has surged, and institutions are reassessing macro risk exposure as the interest rate outlook becomes unclear again.

NVIDIA (NVDA.O) CEO Jensen Huang met with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Whale "Set 10 Major Goals First" (@jasonleo) shared a post late at night stating that the most noteworthy aspect of this round of BTC correction is not the decline itself, but "why it only dropped this much." He pointed out that recently the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 5.7%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was about 5.3%. Market expectations for another interest rate hike within the year are rising, while oil prices and inflation pressures are resurfacing, with multiple macroeconomic headwinds overlapping. However, BTC has only corrected about 5% so far.jasonleo believes that the price's reaction to news is itself important information. In the past, when a single macroeconomic headwind appeared, BTC could experience a decline of over 10%. Yet this time, under the pressure of multiple headwinds, the price has not shown significant damage, which indicates that the current upward trend has a certain resilience. He compared the current trend to BTC's previous bottom around $58,000, believing that both exhibit the characteristic of "weakened selling pressure after sufficient release of bad news," but the current market remains in a strong trend. He stated that he does not currently believe BTC will directly drop to $78,000 or even $74,000, and will observe $79,000 as a position to reduce holdings: if BTC falls below $79,000, he will begin to reduce holdings; if the daily close falls below $78,000, he will exit all remaining long positions and wait for the next entry opportunity; if the key position is not broken, he will continue to hold long positions.

French President Macron will host a video call with G7 leaders this Friday to discuss measures to address the global crude oil and refined oil markets. Macron has spoken on the phone with U.S. President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, and has requested EU partners to release additional diesel stocks in response to U.S. supply demands.

Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng posted on X, stating: The macro environment still faces challenges, with U.S. yields remaining high and continuing to pressure risk assets; however, there are signs of improvement in investor demand.Richard Teng also mentioned: The spot Bitcoin ETF attracted a net inflow of $999 million, and technical indicators are beginning to show early signs of recovery.

According to Lianhe Zaobao, U.S. President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This new round of macroeconomic uncertainty is putting pressure on risk assets, and Bitcoin has cooled off after several weeks of rapid gains, with its upward momentum stalling.In addition to geopolitical factors, the market continues to digest the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike measures and is also preparing for another possible rate hike in October. Since August 19, Bitcoin has risen by 28%, and now, Bitcoin is expected to achieve its best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2024.

According to QCP analysis, the global market opened under multi-asset pressure, with investors reducing risk exposure. The Nasdaq 100 index fell from 744.45 to 737.76 in pre-market trading, gold dropped from $4260 to $4147, Bitcoin decreased from $84500 to $82800, and the dollar index also declined, reflecting broad deleveraging rather than a shift to safe-haven assets.QCP stated that the main driving factor is geopolitical: the United States rejected a ceasefire condition proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz last weekend, reigniting concerns over energy supply disruptions and driving a significant rise in Brent crude oil. This week, the U.S. macroeconomic calendar is packed. Following the recent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the PCE price index and non-farm payroll report are key data points, and the market remains highly sensitive to data that could influence further adjustments in monetary policy. In terms of crypto options, front-end implied volatility remains high, with traders pricing for downside protection. Spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows show hesitation amid broader clearing. Bitcoin's recent technical strength faces dual pressure from geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic data risks, with key support levels being closely monitored.

Fidelity Investments Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer posted on X, discussing Bitcoin prices and the power law model.Jurrien Timmer stated: The power law mathematics of Bitcoin continues to indicate that after holding the $60,000 level, a new cyclical bull market is unfolding, with a target of reaching $300,000 by 2029.

In the seventh live broadcast of the Huobi Expert Lecture, HTX Research asset analyst WZ pointed out that in the past, people were accustomed to explaining Crypto with Crypto, but today, the variables that determine the next phase of Crypto are increasingly occurring outside of Crypto. This marks a new pricing cycle that Crypto is entering.On the policy level, WZ believes that although the Clarity Act, which has systematic characteristics, is hindered in the Senate due to the need to secure bipartisan votes and issues involving the Trump family's interests and stablecoin profit distribution, U.S. crypto regulation has not stalled. For instance, the SEC recently released an "innovation exemption" plan that allows compliant institutions meeting certain conditions to tokenize specific stocks, accelerating the integration of traditional finance and crypto.On the macro level, WZ stated that the situation in the Middle East and the blockage risk in the Strait of Hormuz have raised the "risk premium" of crude oil. Rising oil prices can trigger inflation expectations, which in turn affect U.S. Treasury yields and global liquidity. When energy prices remain high and interest rates stay elevated, the upward potential for risk assets like Bitcoin may be constrained.WZ also pointed out that in this cycle, the direct inflow and outflow of ETF funds have changed the traditional logic of capital overflow, making a "general rise" pattern for altcoins difficult to achieve. However, in the new cycle, assets with a "new narrative" and strong consensus will still experience independent upward trends.

Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity Investments, stated that Bitcoin has started to rise after consolidating around the support level of approximately $60,000 for nearly a year, a duration comparable to a typical Bitcoin winter, leading him to conclude that a new four-year cycle bull market may have begun.Timmer mentioned that the Z-score of BTC/gold has changed from -100% to a positive value, a signal that historically confirms a bottom. He also pointed out that we are currently in a long-term new pattern with higher capital costs, and the government may respond with financial repression.

Renowned trader Killa posted about the potential impact of the upcoming FOMC meeting on the cryptocurrency market this week. He stated that many people are very focused on macroeconomics, policies, and economic data to predict the next moves of assets, but Killa believes that "most macro narratives are just distractions." Killa noted that BTC often starts moving before the reasons become clear. By the time the macro environment shifts and the herd realizes it, Bitcoin has usually already completed its move. Correlation is often lagging. The market does not move because most people understand it. Most people understand it because the market has already moved.As a quantitative trader focused on BTC, Killa predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and switched to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

This week, global markets enter a central bank super week. The Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections summary at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday, followed by a monetary policy press conference by Chairman Powell; the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also announce their decisions on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate will hold a key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on Tuesday local time, and the SEC will hold a roundtable discussion on 24-hour trading on the same day.Tuesday: Key procedural vote on the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act (i.e., CLARITY Act); U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending August 29; U.S. September New York Fed Manufacturing Index. Wednesday: U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending September 11; U.S. August retail sales month-on-month, U.S. August import price index month-on-month, U.S. September NAHB housing market index; U.S. July business inventories month-on-month, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 11.Thursday: Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision (2 AM Beijing time on Thursday) and economic projections summary, Federal Reserve Chairman holds a monetary policy press conference; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending September 12; Bank of England announces interest rate decision and meeting minutes; SEC holds a roundtable discussion on 24-hour trading. Friday: Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a monetary policy press conference.

Garrett Jin stated in the latest weekly report that Bitcoin failed to break through the key resistance of $82,500 after reaching a high of $82,300 last week, and has returned to the consolidation range, indicating that the current consolidation is not yet over, and the market may not have completed half of the entire adjustment process.In the short term, spot demand has weakened, and supply remains heavy above $82,000. The risk-reward ratio for chasing prices higher or shorting on a pullback within the current range is poor.

Global Macro Investor founder and CEO Raoul Pal published a discussion on how to value L1. He used Ethereum as an example, stating that if it were to shut down, all stablecoins, DeFi, all L2s, and NFTs on it would go to zero.Pal indicated that L1 attracts assets, capital, and velocity due to its intellectual density. Ethereum has the most developers, programmability, and a complete ecosystem. He has repeatedly heard the DCF argument and believes it is meaningless; the valuation target is not cash flow, but everything guaranteed by the chain.He stated that as we enter the era of indices, the entire human economy and the new intelligent economy will be on-chain, and immense value will accumulate in these foundational layers, which is evident.

BTC OG insider whale agent Garrett Jin released a market outlook indicating that the macro environment has clearly tightened this week, with Brent crude oil approaching $95, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond breaking through 4.8%. The market's expectation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to about 70%. Bitcoin has slightly retraced under this pressure but successfully held the key support level of $76,600, then rebounded to the high range of $77,000.On-chain cost basis data shows that a significant amount of new supply has formed in the $75,000 to $80,000 range, providing strong support for the market; the $80,000 to $82,500 range is currently the largest concentration of resistance. A daily close above $82,500 and a successful retest confirmation will be a key signal for supply clearance. In terms of ETF liquidity, there was a net inflow of about $3.5 billion into U.S. spot ETFs in August, but a two-way flow has appeared at the start of September, with a net outflow of about $237 million on Tuesday, and retail activity has also cooled down.Regarding downside risks, if the daily close falls below $76,600, and ETF flows, Coinbase premiums, and 7-day net realized profits all weaken simultaneously, it will be seen as a clear warning signal. This Friday's non-farm payroll data will be the next important macro testing point; if the data is hot, it will strengthen rate hike expectations, and the $76,600 support may come under pressure again.

According to CoinDesk, the "credit pulse" indicator, which measures the speed of new credit in China relative to GDP changes, is flashing red. The Bloomberg China Credit Pulse Index recently reported 20.84 points, the lowest level since 2008. This indicator was proposed by economist Michael Biggs in 2008 and is considered related to the global manufacturing cycle, leading S&P 500 returns by about 12 months.Albert Edwards, a strategist at Société Générale, warned that ignoring China's recent monetary tightening could become "the biggest investment mistake of the decade." Despite the weakening indicators, Bitcoin surged 25% in August and briefly broke through $80,000, mainly driven by inflows from U.S. spot ETFs, short covering, and a catch-up rally of previously lagging assets compared to the stock market.Looking ahead, there are two scenarios: one is that Bitcoin continues to rise, as current crypto trading is primarily driven by U.S. institutional funds, reducing sensitivity to signals from China's credit conditions; the other is that if U.S. stocks decline as Edwards predicts, risk aversion may spill over into Bitcoin. Which scenario will materialize remains to be seen.

According to Cointelegraph, the U.S. Department of Commerce has officially adopted Chainlink to publish core macroeconomic data on-chain, covering key indicators such as actual GDP, PCE price index, and real final sales of private domestic purchasers, marking the first deep integration of traditional government data with blockchain infrastructure.