macroeconomics

According to QCP analysis, the global market opened under multi-asset pressure, with investors reducing risk exposure. The Nasdaq 100 index fell from 744.45 to 737.76 in pre-market trading, gold dropped from $4260 to $4147, Bitcoin decreased from $84500 to $82800, and the dollar index also declined, reflecting broad deleveraging rather than a shift to safe-haven assets.QCP stated that the main driving factor is geopolitical: the United States rejected a ceasefire condition proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz last weekend, reigniting concerns over energy supply disruptions and driving a significant rise in Brent crude oil. This week, the U.S. macroeconomic calendar is packed. Following the recent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the PCE price index and non-farm payroll report are key data points, and the market remains highly sensitive to data that could influence further adjustments in monetary policy. In terms of crypto options, front-end implied volatility remains high, with traders pricing for downside protection. Spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows show hesitation amid broader clearing. Bitcoin's recent technical strength faces dual pressure from geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic data risks, with key support levels being closely monitored.

Next week's macro data focus will be on Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report, including non-farm employment population, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage, which are directly related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and are important employment data ahead of the October monetary policy meeting. According to Beijing time, on Wednesday at 20:15, the U.S. September ADP employment figures will be released, and at 20:30, the U.S. August core PCE price index year-on-year will be announced; on Thursday at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 26 will be released, and on Friday at 20:30, the U.S. September seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population and unemployment rate will be published.Regarding officials' speeches, on Thursday at 16:00, Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak, and at 21:30, European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak. Starting from early Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials will have a series of public activities; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, along with 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, will speak in succession, and FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a keynote speech at the University at Buffalo. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Cook, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak in turn, and on Friday, Williams and Dallas Fed President Logan will still have public activities. In terms of U.S. stocks, Micron will release its earnings report after the market on Wednesday, and Nike will announce its latest quarterly earnings report on Thursday, with both companies corresponding to storage chips and consumer demand.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Bill Miller IV, Chairman and CEO of Miller Value Partners, stated in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine that he has "never been more optimistic" about Bitcoin. He pointed out that although Bitcoin's market capitalization remains roughly at the peak level of the last cycle, the global financial situation has significantly worsened, and the gap between price and fair value is wider than ever.Miller elaborated on his "capital governance" argument, suggesting that Bitcoin should be viewed as the "denominator" of capital rather than an asset that needs to be valued, using the scale of the U.S. deficit compared to Bitcoin's total market capitalization as a reference framework for assessing fair value. He also addressed the phenomenon of gold outperforming Bitcoin, attributing it to "narrative lag," and discussed AI trading rotations as well as the global liquidity outflow from the Japanese and U.S. Treasury markets.Additionally, Miller talked about the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point interest rate hike, energy prices and inflation, the impact of immigration and the rule of law on the stability of capital flows, and whether U.S. companies can outperform debt, as well as why funds still cannot hold Bitcoin. He believes that Bitcoin is a form of capital denominator that does not rely on force for endorsement.

Strive CEO Matt Cole stated in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine that its benchmark scenario expects Bitcoin to achieve approximately 50% annualized returns by 2030. He presented a macro argument consisting of three parts, involving the U.S. dollar, long-term Treasury yields, and Bitcoin re-emerging as the "fastest horse" against gold.Matt Cole believes that when the Federal Reserve and the Treasury finally intervene to suppress long-term rates, the U.S. dollar will become the release valve, and scarce assets will surge significantly, allowing Bitcoin to once again play its role as the fastest asset against gold. The interview was hosted by Grace Remington and Sean Hagan and was published on September 15, 2026.

Jack Mallers, CEO of Strike, stated in the first episode of Bitcoin Magazine's television program that Bitcoin and artificial intelligence can help humanity regain time and re-engage in creation. He believes that currency is essentially an abstract form of human time and energy, and poor-quality currency erodes people's time and energy, forcing them to work longer hours to buy a house, go on vacation, or pursue artistic interests; whereas high-quality currency rewards time and energy, and Bitcoin and AI can liberate humanity from the "hard labor" of poor-quality currency. Mallers also cited the Wright brothers as an example, stating that when they invented the airplane, the United States was in a gold standard period.At the time of Mallers' remarks, Bitcoin was experiencing its best market performance in years. In August, Bitcoin rose about 25%, marking the strongest single-month performance since 2026 and the first August since 2021 to record positive returns, closing at around $78,000. This surge was driven by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's expansion of long-term bond repurchases, which lowered yields and triggered billions of dollars in short liquidations, making "devaluation trades" the focus of the market again, with the dollar weakening and the scale of U.S. Treasury debt reaching $40 trillion.Regarding the U.S. economy, Mallers stated that such a level of debt is unsustainable, and whether interest rates rise or fall is irrelevant; everything is inflationary and difficult to sustain. Data released last Friday showed that the core CPI in the U.S. for August, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month, higher than expected. The U.S. is deeply mired in an affordability crisis, and the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week to curb inflation.

Renowned trader Killa posted about the potential impact of the upcoming FOMC meeting on the cryptocurrency market this week. He stated that many people are very focused on macroeconomics, policies, and economic data to predict the next moves of assets, but Killa believes that "most macro narratives are just distractions." Killa noted that BTC often starts moving before the reasons become clear. By the time the macro environment shifts and the herd realizes it, Bitcoin has usually already completed its move. Correlation is often lagging. The market does not move because most people understand it. Most people understand it because the market has already moved.As a quantitative trader focused on BTC, Killa predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and switched to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

According to CoinDesk, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has risen to 18.17, the highest level since January of this year. This means that one Bitcoin can now purchase just over 18 ounces of gold. The current Bitcoin price is approximately $81,000, which has not only increased in dollar terms but has also outperformed gold, a hard asset with a history of hundreds of years.The simultaneous rise of both assets stems from market concerns that governments may dilute debt through currency devaluation. With the exception of Switzerland, all major developed economies have a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 100%, with the United States leading in terms of basic deficits. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Benset stated at the G20 finance ministers' meeting, "The world is awash in debt... The only way out of this predicament is growth."Bitcoin bull and SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci posted on X that Benset's remarks inadvertently promoted Bitcoin: "Benset stood in front of the G20 and said the world is awash in debt; that’s the entire selling point of Bitcoin. The 20 finance ministers just released the best Bitcoin advertisement of the year, even though they did not intend to." Bitcoin exists outside the traditional financial system and, unlike fiat currencies such as the dollar, yen, and euro, cannot be devalued by policy decisions.

Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, stated that the macro investment logic for Bitcoin is continuously strengthening. Even though regulatory issues have temporarily taken a backseat, fiscal concerns continue to drive demand for Bitcoin in the market.Mitchnick pointed out that the fiscal pressures in the current macro environment have become an important factor supporting Bitcoin's appeal, further reinforcing its narrative as a hedging tool. This perspective reflects institutions' ongoing focus on Bitcoin's long-term macro positioning.

Tonight at 20:30, we will once again welcome the U.S. July retail sales data, known for its "terrifying data" reputation. This data will directly reflect the consumption willingness and purchasing power of American residents, serving as a key barometer for determining whether the economy is experiencing a soft landing or a stall.If the data is significantly stronger than expected, it may reinforce the narrative that "the economy still has resilience," boosting the dollar and dampening interest rate cut expectations; if it is significantly weaker than expected, it may exacerbate recession concerns and further boost precious metals and risk-averse sentiment.

Bitfinex's latest report indicates that Bitcoin buying is returning, but the current rebound still mainly relies on improvements in the macroeconomic environment rather than catalysts from the cryptocurrency market itself.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the spot trading volume of Bitcoin on major exchanges has dropped by more than 75% compared to the end of 2024. Binance's trading volume in July exceeded $35 billion, far below the $246 billion in November 2024; Bybit plummeted by 85%, Coinbase fell by 61%, and OKX dropped by 67%, marking the lowest levels since the late 2023 bear market.The analyst pointed out that the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran is suppressing risk sentiment, inflation is raising concerns about high interest rates, and the stock market continues to absorb liquidity, all of which are unfavorable for speculative assets. Bitcoin's return to a bullish trend requires a shift in the macro landscape and a return of demand.

According to Jinshi reports, Russian President Putin stated that based on macroeconomic indicators, the key interest rate should be lowered.

According to Jinshi, the increase in ADP employment in the U.S. for June is the lowest since March, and the market focus is quickly shifting towards more macro indicators and external risk events. The statements from Federal Reserve officials have eased, leading to a collective rebound in the precious metals sector.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed debate titled "Bear Market Trap or Bull Market Start? How to Identify the June Rebound in the Crypto Market with World Cup Enthusiasm + Macroeconomic Warming" today at 20:00 (UTC+8). At that time, the affirmative debaters Crypto Monkey Uncle, Michill, Yang Shao, and Sincere Little Taoist will face off against the negative debaters George, 7w, Meta, and Mike Banana. They will conduct an in-depth discussion from multiple dimensions such as macroeconomics, capital flow, market cycles, and hot narratives, analyzing the driving logic and potential risks behind this round of market trends for investors.

Last week, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF reported a net outflow of $1.72 billion, experiencing the largest single-week net outflow since February 2025. The largest Bitcoin ETF by net assets, BlackRock's IBIT, recorded an outflow of $1.34 billion last week, marking the largest single-week net outflow since its launch in January 2024. Overall, the ETF continued the negative outflow trend that began in May, ultimately recording a monthly net outflow of $2.43 billion in May.Andri Fauzan Adziima, head of research at Bitrue Research Institute, stated that the main driver of last week's ETF outflows was macroeconomic headlines, particularly recent U.S. employment data. The strong May 2026 (non-farm payroll) report confirmed the resilience of the labor market, lowering the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the short term and pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, making income-generating bonds much more attractive than non-yielding Bitcoin.Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties have triggered widespread risk-averse sentiment in recent trading days, affecting not only the digital asset market but also other sectors including artificial intelligence, tech stocks, and gold. It is expected that the outflow pressure will continue in early June, but will stabilize or turn slightly positive by mid to late June, as panic sentiment bottoms out, seasonal factors in June provide some support, and any macro-level easing will trigger inflows.

The latest market intelligence report released by the digital asset trading firm Wintermute shows that global financial markets are undergoing a large-scale macroeconomic repricing, with the market narrative shifting from discussions about the timing of interest rate cuts to preparing for potential rate hikes. This structural shift has been triggered by unexpectedly strong economic data and reignited inflationary pressures, creating significant headwinds for digital assets.The report notes that Bitcoin saw a sharp decline after briefly breaking through $83,000, giving back significant gains within a week, while mainstream alternative tokens experienced double-digit percentage drops. Global wealth managers are actively de-risking under macro constraints, highlighting the fragility of digital asset expansion. On-chain trading indicators suggest that the previous price increases were not driven by genuine spot market demand or organic retail accumulation, but rather primarily from short squeezes in the perpetual futures market.The total open interest in Bitcoin derivatives rapidly expanded by $10 billion to $58 billion within a month, while the underlying spot trading volume simultaneously fell to a two-year low. When Bitcoin broke through $80,000, a large number of short positions were forcibly liquidated, triggering a brief buying frenzy, but failed to establish a lasting structural bottom.The main driving factor behind the current market reversal is that global CPI data continues to exceed expectations, reigniting widespread concerns about interest rate hikes. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair has injected unpredictability into the market. Despite long-term positive signals, including a recent net inflow of $623 million into spot ETFs and Bitcoin reserves on trading platforms dropping to a seven-year low, Wintermute emphasizes that these long-term trends are insufficient to alleviate recent structural risks.As international asset managers shift capital towards short-term sovereign debt instruments, digital platforms are struggling to maintain momentum. The near-term outlook for the tokenized market will depend on whether genuine spot buyers return to stabilize the weak liquidity gap.

Cryptocurrency analyst Marcel Pechman stated that after Bitcoin's failure to break above $82,000, it faced selling pressure and is once again testing the $76,000 level. In four days, the scale of long position liquidations reached $400 million, with prices dropping about 7% from recent highs. Nevertheless, analysts believe that the conditions for Bitcoin to return to $80,000 are accumulating, with three potential catalysts worth noting.First, Strategy (MSTR) invested $2 billion in Bitcoin over the past week, providing effective support amid market pressure. At the same time, the company repurchased $1.5 billion of convertible bonds maturing in 2029, and repaying part of its senior debt in advance helps reduce future dilution risks for existing MSTR shareholders, creating space for subsequent new stock issuance and continued Bitcoin purchases.Second, on a macro level, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rose to 4.6%, a 16-month high, as investor confidence gradually shifts towards scarce assets. In 2026, $2 trillion in long-term debt will mature, and the Federal Reserve may need to continue purchasing bonds, which will further weaken the dollar's attractiveness. Gold saw a significant rise this January but has since given back most of its gains, while Bitcoin rebounded from $65,000 to $76,500 during the same period, indicating an increasing recognition of its safe-haven properties in the market.Third, if the situation in Iran sees a turnaround, risk appetite is expected to recover quickly. On Monday, Brent crude oil prices rose to $113, with negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz experiencing fluctuations; since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran in late February, oil prices have cumulatively risen over 50%. If an agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran, a drop in energy prices will alleviate inflationary pressures, and Bitcoin is expected to return above $80,000. Currently, U.S. stocks are close to historical highs, while Bitcoin is still down about 39% from its peak.