fomc

Trader Ansem posted that Warsh and the hawkish FOMC may put pressure on risk assets, expecting that risk assets will generally decline, while BTC has shown relative weakness compared to most assets. He believes that BTC's failure to break through the weekly resistance across multiple time frames may lead to another test of the range's low point.

According to Jinshi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe there is a high level of uncertainty regarding the unemployment rate, with risks roughly balanced. Compared to the predictions in March, the current majority of participants believe the uncertainty is high, with risks tilted to the upside.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement reiterates the policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system and instructs the open market operations department to increase securities holdings when appropriate.

According to Jinshi reports, the economic projections released by the Federal Reserve FOMC show that the median PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2026 to 2028 are 3.6%, 2.3%, and 2%, respectively, which is a downward adjustment compared to the expectations in March (which were 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2%, respectively).

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC has lowered its GDP growth expectations for 2026 to 2028, with medians of 2.2%, 2.3%, and 2.2%. In contrast, the expectations in March were 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1%.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicated that despite the high uncertainty brought by the Middle East conflict, economic activity continues to expand at a steady pace.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicates that the committee will commit to achieving price stability.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement shows that out of 18 FOMC participants, 9 expect to raise interest rates in 2026.

According to Jinshi reports, analyst Matthew Weller believes that FOMC Chairman Kevin Walsh's first Federal Reserve meeting is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the "dot plot," and the content of the press conference may significantly reshape the market's expectations for the future path of interest rates. The dollar index DXY 99.5 is seen as a key "watershed," which may determine the technical trend of the dollar this week and in the longer term.

Bitcoin continues to be under pressure amid macro uncertainty and institutional funds' wait-and-see sentiment, with prices hovering around $64,500, down about 2% for the day. The market is awaiting the results of the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, which will be chaired by Kevin Warsh for the first time, with widespread expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Analysts point out that the focus of this meeting has shifted from "whether to cut interest rates" to "policy path and inflation signals." Current U.S. inflation is still considered to be at a near three-year high, and changes in energy prices and geopolitical situations have kept the market cautious about future policy directions. On-chain and institutional pressure is showing synchronized signs.Concerns surrounding Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continue to ferment, with its preferred stock STRC dropping to $91.79 on June 16, over 8% below its par value of $100, seen as a signal of weakened corporate Bitcoin buying power. Although the spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of about $10.1 million on June 16, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the main increment, the scale of funds is still significantly lower than in previous phases, indicating limited buying momentum. Market research firms Bitfinex and QCP point out that Bitcoin's recent rebound is more of a "technically driven recovery due to exhausted selling pressure," rather than driven by new demand.In the derivatives market, implied volatility for options has risen, and skew has shifted towards bearish protection, indicating that traders are pricing in tail risks. In terms of price structure, Bitcoin is currently considered to be oscillating in the range of $60,000 to $68,000. If the Federal Reserve signals a more hawkish stance or institutional buying weakens further, it may pull back to the $62,000 to $63,000 range. Overall, the current market presents a combination structure of "macro waiting + institutional marginal weakening + enhanced derivatives defense," with the short-term direction still relying on FOMC policy signals and the situation of ETF and corporate funds flowing back in.

Bitcoin has fallen below $65,000, approaching a key short-term support level ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on June 18, which is the main catalyst for volatility this week. This FOMC meeting is also the first meeting since Kevin Warsh took office as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, so the post-meeting press conference and interest rate results are equally under scrutiny.Trader Killa stated that the FOMC may set the tone for market trends for the remainder of June. He pointed out that BTC is currently forming a bullish narrative around this event, but the outcome is usually priced in by the market before the press conference. Killa noted that if recent history is any guide, FOMC days typically bring more bearish reactions than bullish ones. Killa warned that BTC needs to maintain a bullish market structure from its current position of around $64,000; otherwise, after this turning point, it is highly likely to retest the $60,000 low.Another trader, Niels, mentioned that the FOMC meeting coincides with the nearing conclusion of the US-Iran peace agreement, and BTC may show some strength in the short term, but it could ultimately fall towards $55,000. However, analyst Cryptic Trades offered a more optimistic view, believing that BTC may continue to rebound after the FOMC. He stated that BTC has encountered resistance near a daily bullish support zone formed by two key moving averages, but after this round of correction, the next significant rise is imminent.

According to BBX data, ahead of the FOMC meeting yesterday and under the dual catalyst of the US-Iran agreement, the sentiment for cryptocurrency concept stocks has significantly warmed up. The core dynamics are as follows:Strategy, Inc. (NASDAQ: $MSTR) rose 3.18% to $123.97 on June 15, marking one of several days of recovery; Bitcoin rose to about $64,000 during the same period, but there remains about a 15% discount compared to the company's average price of $75,680 for 843,738 BTC. The company's most important balance sheet action recently came from the SEC 8-K on May 25: repurchasing $1.5 billion in face value convertible bonds maturing in 2029 for about $1.38 billion in cash (completed at about an 8% discount to face value), reducing the convertible bond stock from $8.2 billion to $6.7 billion, generating a BTC Yield of 0.7% and a BTC Gain of about 4,391 BTC; as of May 25, USD reserves were $871 million, and the company stated it would "supplement reserves over time based on market conditions"; since the beginning of 2026, the cumulative BTC Yield is 13.3%. Phong Le (CEO): This transaction "reflects the discipline of using comprehensive capital management tools in debt management"; Saylor previously stated that Strategy still had assets covering all debts when BTC fell to $8,000, implying resilience in extreme scenarios.Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: $COIN) was listed by CoinGape in a June 15 research report as one of the "three cryptocurrency concept stocks to watch" ahead of this week's FOMC (the other two being $MSTR and $BMNR); currently, BTC is about $64,000 and ETH is about $1,660, with the market pricing a 97.4% probability of no interest rate hike at the FOMC on June 17 (2.6% for a rate cut, 0% for a rate hike); the significant US-Iran agreement (over the weekend of June 14-15) has driven a comprehensive rebound in risk assets, with a sharp drop in oil prices easing inflationary pressures, providing additional support for the recovery of sentiment in the cryptocurrency market—if the FOMC dot plot does not show unexpectedly hawkish signals, Coinbase's prediction market and institutional custody business are expected to benefit from the dual improvement in trading volume and asset scale brought about by the recovery of BTC trends.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Daly stated that the main conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is that all members unanimously agreed to keep interest rates unchanged. Daly pointed out that the wording of the statement is not as important as the actual actions of the FOMC.

According to Jinshi reports, Brad Conger, the Chief Investment Officer of Hirtle & Co., stated that a small-scale dispute broke out within the FOMC today, with dissenters leaning towards a tightening policy stance, which sets the direction for the "struggle" for the incoming chair. The bond market has been pricing in this scenario for several weeks, and Conger believes that, based on strong growth in private consumption and business investment, the hawks will have the upper hand in this contest.

According to Jinshi reports, analyst Audrey stated that given the recent strong economic performance and the ongoing inflationary trend caused by rising energy prices, the "clearly hawkish" shift made by some FOMC members is reasonable. She pointed out that from the perspective of the dollar, this indicates that the bearish expectations driven by factors such as Federal Reserve policy and yields are incorrect, while also confirming that the bullish price trend so far is justified.