Bitfinex: The Fed's hawkish signals have led to a Bitcoin pullback, but spot buying supports the market structure

Bitfinex published an analysis stating that despite tightening macro conditions, Bitcoin remains steady above $77,100. Last week, after Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's hawkish speech in Jackson Hole, BTC fell from above $81,000, but the rise in August was primarily driven by spot buying rather than excessive leverage—open interest gradually increased, the basis remained relatively restrained, and last week, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs approached $1 billion, while Ethereum investment products saw a net inflow of $815.7 million for 10 consecutive days.

On the macro front, U.S. PCE inflation is at 3.7%, core inflation at 3.3%, annualized private demand growth in Q2 is 4.2%, and the deficit for the first 10 months of this fiscal year reached $1.8 trillion. Warsh confirmed that the 2% inflation target is a hard constraint, and the market has raised the probability of a rate hike in September to 57%. Bitfinex believes that the continued support from ETF and stablecoin liquidity is sustaining prices, but expectations of interest rate hikes limit the upside potential. If crypto inflows remain resilient, it will prove that underlying demand is still solid.