warsh

Next week, the market focus will be on the interest rate decisions of several major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Since taking office as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Waller has remained silent, and the press conference following the June interest rate decision will be a key validation of his monetary policy stance. The market also expects him to send clear signals regarding communication mechanism reforms. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are in Beijing time):Monday 15:15, European Central Bank President Lagarde will deliver a speech;Tuesday TBD, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision; 14:30, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will hold a monetary policy press conference;Tuesday 20:15, U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending May 30;Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections summary; 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller will hold a monetary policy press conference;Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, U.S. June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.In terms of policy signals, the market is focused on whether three hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve will materialize: first, whether the wording "the next step is likely to be a rate cut" will be removed from the original policy statement. If this wording is removed, it means the Federal Reserve officially ends its previous easing bias and shifts to a policy tone centered on combating inflation. Second, changes in the dot plot; the March dot plot indicated one more rate cut within the year, but this dot plot is likely to shift to show stable rates, and there may even be a situation where a majority of officials expect rate hikes. Finally, there is a tilt in risk preference. If officials' concerns about inflation significantly increase and worries about the labor market diminish, it may pave the way for subsequent rate hikes.On Friday (June 19), due to the Juneteenth holiday, the New York Stock Exchange will be closed for one day. Trading in precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, stock index, and U.S. Treasury futures contracts on the CME will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 20th, and trading in Brent crude oil futures contracts on the Intercontinental Exchange will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 20th.

The Web3 asset data platform RootData has outlined the cryptocurrency portfolio of Federal Reserve nominee Kevin Warsh, covering multiple areas including blockchain infrastructure, on-chain financial protocols, institutional financial services, and application tools. Structurally, Warsh's layout can be divided into four major sectors:Underlying Infrastructure: Networks and scaling solutions such as Solana, Optimism, and Lightning Network;On-chain Finance: DeFi and trading protocols like Compound, dYdX, and Polymarket;Institutional and Financial Services: Asset management, banking, and funding channels such as Polychain, Scalar Capital, Kinetic, and OnJuno;Applications and Tools: User entry and development tool projects like Dapper Labs, Crossmint, and Tenderly.Overall, Warsh's strategy of layering financial protocols on top of infrastructure and focusing on controlling institutional funding channels shows a clear difference from typical crypto-native VC approaches, aligning more closely with traditional financial background investors' concerns about market structure and institutional levels.It is reported that on April 21, Warsh held a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. According to his recent compliance disclosure documents, if he enters the regulatory system in the future (such as leading the Federal Reserve), he will need to dispose of relevant holdings.

According to Jin Shi reports, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Waller stated that he is working with the Treasury Secretary to advance the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction efforts.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Waller stated that he will firmly commit to maintaining strict independence on interest rate issues.

According to Jinshi reports, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh lacks "credibility" in advocating for interest rate cuts.

According to CCTV news reports, Iran stated that the U.S. Navy destroyers "Frank E. Peterson" and "Michael Murphy" attempted to "infiltrate" the Strait of Hormuz the previous day, and indicated that the U.S. warships used the cover of the ceasefire conditions to create false propaganda of "successful passage" and to influence the ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations.Iran claimed that the two warships attempted to disguise themselves as Omani merchant vessels sailing off the southern coast of Oman, choosing a dangerous route that was very close to the coast and had a shallow draft, hoping to enter the Persian Gulf through "covert" movements and the "negligence" of the Iranian military during the ceasefire. The Iranian Navy ultimately intercepted them at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. The two destroyers were forced to withdraw to the Oman Sea without being able to enter the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. President Trump stated that many countries will send warships alongside the United States to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. He hopes that countries such as France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom will send warships to the area, so that the Strait of Hormuz no longer poses a threat. The U.S. will heavily bomb the coastal areas of Iran and continuously sink Iranian ships. In any case, we will soon open up the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian said today (March 5) that the United States will "eventually regret the precedent it has set" by attacking an Iranian warship in international waters. Amir-Abdollahian stated on social media that the Iranian frigate was a "guest of the Indian Navy," carrying about 130 people, and was attacked in international waters 2,000 miles (approximately 3,218 kilometers) from the Iranian coast without any prior warning.U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said on the 4th that a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship on the 3rd in the Indian Ocean with a torpedo, which the Iranian vessel believed was sailing safely in international waters.

According to Jinshi citing Reuters, U.S. officials revealed on Wednesday that the U.S. military launched an attack near the coast of Sri Lanka, hitting an Iranian warship.An official stated that the attack was carried out by a U.S. submarine. Sri Lankan authorities reported that they had rescued 32 people from the ship and recovered several bodies.

As the probability of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Federal Reserve Chairman significantly increases in the prediction market, Bitcoin further declines, nearing a low of $81,000.Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, points out that the market generally views Kevin Warsh's regained policy influence as a bearish factor for Bitcoin, due to his long-standing emphasis on monetary discipline, higher real interest rates, and tightening liquidity. His policy framework tends to regard crypto assets as "speculative products in a loose monetary environment," rather than tools for hedging against currency devaluation. Higher real interest rates mean that the true cost of financing rises after accounting for inflation, which typically suppresses demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Additionally, several observers believe that a hawkish stance and underestimation of deflation risks may have exacerbated economic downward pressure that year. If similar thinking continues, it could lead to higher unemployment rates, slower recovery pace, and greater deflation risks.

According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration is preparing to confirm Kevin Warsh as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

According to Polymarket data, the two most likely candidates to succeed the Federal Reserve Chair have reversed again, with Kevin Warsh's probability of taking office soaring to 85%, while BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income, Rieder, has seen his probability drop to 8%.

According to Polymarket data, regarding the successor to the Federal Reserve, the implied probability for BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, Rieder, is 47%, higher than former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh's 28%, current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's 9%, and White House National Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett's 8%.The total trading volume for this event exceeds $250 million, and the chart shows that Rieder's pricing curve accelerated upward in January, surpassing competitor Kevin Warsh on January 23.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, former Federal Reserve Governor Warsh stated that Trump's public push for the Federal Reserve (to cut interest rates) is correct.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, former Federal Reserve Governor Warsh stated that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates now.

ChainCatcher News, when talking about the next Federal Reserve chairman, President Trump stated that Waller is very talented, but he might not be the one, as he does not want to pay 10-year debt at higher interest rates.At the same time, Trump again criticized Powell, saying, "The Federal Reserve has a stupid person."

ChainCatcher news, according to the Wall Street Journal, informed sources revealed that President Trump has been privately discussing the dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for months, but he has not yet made a final decision on whether to oust him before the end of his term next year. Sources said that during a meeting at Mar-a-Lago, Trump discussed the possibility of firing Powell before the end of his term with former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh, who could potentially be chosen to replace him. However, Warsh advised against firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and believed he should be allowed to finish his term without interference. U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant also opposed Trump's intention to remove Powell.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, sources familiar with the matter revealed that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has proposed selecting financier Kevin Warsh as his Secretary of the Treasury, but there is an understanding that Warsh may be nominated to lead the Federal Reserve when Jerome Powell's term as Chairman ends in 2026.Some insiders said that Trump discussed possible arrangements with Warsh at his private club Mar-a-Lago in Florida on Wednesday. Warsh is a leading candidate to head the Treasury Department, but as of Thursday evening, Trump has not yet decided who to choose for this key cabinet position. Sources familiar with the situation stated that Trump is still weighing how to handle the vacancy for the Federal Reserve Chair position and may wait until Powell's term ends in May 2026 to make a final decision.Some of these individuals said that Trump is considering appointing investor Scott Bessent to lead the National Economic Council, and if Warsh becomes the Federal Reserve Chair, Bessent would be nominated for Secretary of the Treasury later in his term.