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According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction on Polymarket for the event "BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Alexander Shevchenko," the option "Thiago Agustin Tirante" in the sub-market "BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Alexander Shevchenko" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, rising from 67.5% an hour ago to the current 86.5% (a fluctuation of 19%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Former President Donald Trump's latest post: "I have asked Vice President Pence to focus all his energy on the massive corruption and criminal activities occurring in Democrat-run cities and states across America. The mismanagement and rampant corruption in Democrat-led states like Minnesota, California, and Illinois is nothing short of a disaster. Billions of dollars are stolen every month.As long as we correct this massive criminal activity, our budget can quickly achieve balance. Corruption has seeped into the blood of the Democrat leadership! We do not currently need to reach an agreement with Iran; that era has long passed. We control hundreds of billions of dollars of their (Iran's) funds and also control their straits! Thank you all for your attention to this matter."

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy stated that on the evening of November 12 local time, two supertankers experienced an explosion while navigating the Strait of Hormuz. These tankers ignored previous warnings about the "southern route" being unsafe and were carrying a total of over 4 million barrels of crude oil, ultimately being forced to halt operations.

The U.S. Central Command stated that the U.S. military continues round-the-clock operations to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial shipping and strictly enforces the maritime blockade against Iran.The U.S. collaborates with interagency partners to prevent the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from using land routes and the Caspian Sea to transport advanced weapon systems, dual-use technologies, and illicit financial flows.

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that if there is a negotiable agreement, the United States is ready to negotiate with Iran at any time.

During a press conference at the White House, U.S. President Trump stated that the conflict with Iran is moving towards a resolution, and that the U.S. currently sees no need to take military action against Iran. He emphasized that Iran will never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, and there is absolutely no room for negotiation on this matter.

According to Gate market data, Middle Eastern media reported that negotiations on the U.S.-Iran nuclear issue have made progress, with proposals from Qatar and Pakistan reactivating substantive talks. Both sides are expected to reach a preliminary agreement on Iran's uranium enrichment issue, with the U.S. allowing Iran to enrich uranium to a concentration of 3.67% and requiring a reduction in the existing 60% enriched uranium concentration.The Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and the U.S. will release $6 billion to $9 billion of Iranian assets. As a result, the Nasdaq's intraday gains expanded to 3%, spot gold and silver prices surged briefly, and oil prices fell by more than $1.50.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market Polymarket for the event "Israel and Iran ceasefire continues," the sub-market "November 20" saw the probability of the "yes" option fluctuate dramatically, soaring from 49.5% an hour ago to the current 90.5% (a fluctuation of 41%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction market for the event "The United States announces the end of the blockade on Iran," the sub-market "December 15" saw the probability of the "Yes" option fluctuate dramatically, soaring from 23% an hour ago to the current 41.5% (a fluctuation of 18.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Forbes, an unsealed search warrant shows that a former senior financial crime investigator at Binance stated during questioning by the IRS in May of this year that Binance's management ignored calls for an internal investigation into approximately 2,000 accounts suspected to be used by individuals within Iran, involving about $1.2 billion in fund flows (codenamed "Operation Loclock").The investigator was previously suspended along with several colleagues for investigating two accounts suspected of violating U.S. sanctions by transferring funds to Iran, and later left the company. He has since received a subpoena to testify before a federal grand jury in Washington, D.C. Binance responded that it has not violated Iranian sanctions, that the relevant investigators were terminated for violating company data privacy policies, that the investigation into the accounts has never been closed, and that the company will fully cooperate with law enforcement. No charges have been filed in this investigation so far.

On November 9, U.S. President Trump will meet with Qatar's Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani at the White House to discuss U.S.-Iran mediation matters.The Prime Minister of Qatar stated that the mediation work is ongoing, and U.S. Vice President Pence is also actively involved in promoting a new ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Trump indicated that if negotiations make progress, the likelihood of the U.S. launching military strikes against Iran will be very low.

According to Jinshi Data, during a telephone interview with CNN on Sunday local time, U.S. President Trump stated that as long as progress is made in negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear issue and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, it is "extremely unlikely" that the U.S. will take military action against Iran again. He reiterated this judgment five times during the approximately 20-minute interview and stated that whether to take military action depends on whether Iran signs a very tough agreement.Trump also mentioned that the U.S. military is prepared for action. He stated that there are three aircraft carriers on standby in the Middle East, one of which has just arrived, and all are in a state of readiness. He also disclosed that power plants and 38 bridges have been listed as potential strike targets, stating that these bridges could be destroyed in about an hour, but he prefers to avoid destroying related infrastructure.Trump further stated that Iran's air defense equipment has been destroyed, and currently, only about 10% of its missile production capacity and about 15% of its drone production capacity remain. He also mentioned that Iran's inflation rate has reached 301% this year and stated that reaching an agreement remains a priority option, suggesting that further military action is most likely unnecessary.

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy stated that on November 8 local time, another oil tanker attempted to cross an unauthorized route through the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in an explosion and a severe fire. Since early that morning, three oil tankers have exploded and caught fire.

According to a report by Reuters, after months of maritime blockade, the U.S. Central Command is forming a task force to strengthen America's efforts to restrict Iran's use of land and Caspian Sea routes for transporting weapons and other supplies.

According to Jinshi Data, Trump announced in the past 24 hours that White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller will take over as Chief of Staff on November 9, replacing Susie Wiles; Wiles will move to her political action team. Trump also stated that he plans to continue raising political funds to regain influence after the Republican midterm election losses.On the issue of Iran, Trump stated that he is communicating with Iran and mentioned that the U.S. has carried out a "small strike" against Iran, destroying a small air defense system. Two U.S. officials revealed that advisers informed them that the window for large-scale military action against Iran is shrinking again, suggesting action before the new Congress controlled by Democrats takes office in January next year.Trump also expressed his full support for "Super Intelligence" (SI). The U.S. Department of Energy stated that the White House technology task force meeting has been postponed, with members including Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has imposed financial sanctions on eight Canadian currency service companies, stating that these companies have business dealings with sanctioned Iranian entities. The Treasury Department's statement indicated that the aforementioned companies facilitate the exchange of Iranian rials and other currencies and digital assets, enabling them to conduct international transactions. The related sanctions will isolate these companies from the U.S. dollar financial system.The U.S. Treasury stated that these businesses handle transactions for sanctioned Iranian digital asset exchanges and digital asset addresses associated with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Canada cannot become a haven for illegal financial practitioners providing sanction evasion services to the Iranian regime and its proxies, and the Treasury will pursue and cut off financial channels for the Iranian regime globally. This action was coordinated with Canada's financial intelligence agency FINTRAC, as some sanctioned entities have attempted to evade scrutiny by changing their names and addresses.On the same day, the U.S. "Rewards for Justice" program offered a reward of up to $20 million and possible relocation arrangements for information regarding Iran's nuclear program, including its facilities, equipment, and personnel. The statement noted that Iran has not complied with the International Atomic Energy Agency's safeguards oversight, resulting in the agency losing "knowledge continuity" regarding Iran's production of enriched uranium and centrifuge components.

U.S. Vice President Vance has been directly involved in indirect talks with Iran over the past two weeks, seeking to reach a new ceasefire agreement and restart nuclear negotiations. Vance has communicated almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed and Pakistani Army Chief Munir, with U.S. President Trump's envoys Witkoff and Kushner also participating.

President Trump is facing differing opinions from his advisory team and foreign allies, with the debate focusing on whether the United States should end the war in Iraq or resume large-scale military operations. Vice President Pence and Special Envoy Whitaker support a diplomatic solution, while Secretary of Defense Hegseth and Central Command Commander General Brad Cooper advocate for military action. Secretary of State Rubio and Treasury Secretary Basant argue for tightening sanctions. Qatari officials have initiated a new round of mediation, attempting to prevent military action and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Effective Ceasefire Between the U.S. and Iran" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "November 15" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 57% an hour ago to the current 41.5% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.