bernstein

Bernstein downgraded NVIDIA's stock rating from "Outperform" to "Market Perform," and lowered the target price from $400 to $200.

Bernstein stated that the recent personal relationship-related allegations faced by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang are unlikely to directly impact the demand for the company's AI chips, but they may increase regulatory and political pressure. This incident could, at the very least, severely distract management's attention, and at worst, provide a reason for bipartisan lawmakers in the United States to intensify scrutiny of NVIDIA.Additionally, the firm warned that NVIDIA faces key person risk. Jensen Huang has long dominated the company's strategy and major operational decisions, reportedly overseeing about 60 direct reports, and the company's management system heavily relies on his personal leadership. It is currently unclear who could succeed him if he is unable to continue in his role. Despite these risks, Bernstein maintains its outperform rating on NVIDIA with a target price of $400.

According to Chao Xiang Research, Bernstein's report on October 26, 2026, lowered COIN's revenue forecast for 2026 by 32%. HOOD's third-quarter revenue is expected to be $1.5 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 13%; CRCL's third-quarter revenue is expected to be $770 million, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 10%; FIGR's third-quarter loan volume reached $5.1 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 20%.Bernstein pointed out that the native cryptocurrency spot trading volume is weak, and the valuations of the four digital asset platforms have shifted towards new products such as prediction markets, perpetual futures, tokenization, and lending platforms. All four maintain an outperform rating, with target prices of $160 for HOOD, $250 for COIN, $145 for CRCL, and $70 for FIGR. The report also predicts that the revenue share of new products for HOOD will increase from 3% in 2025 to 25% in 2028, while COIN will rise from 2% to 19%, and the speed of new product realization will determine valuation differentiation.

According to Cointelegraph, Bernstein analysts expect that the prediction market will become a new profit growth point for the trading platform Robinhood Markets (HOOD), potentially bringing in about $1.7 billion in revenue by 2028, surpassing the estimated $1.6 billion from its cryptocurrency business during the same period.Analysts predict that Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from about $650 million this year to $1.7 billion by 2028, accounting for approximately 18% of its total revenue of $9.4 billion in 2028.This forecast was released the day before Robinhood's Q3 2026 earnings report. Bernstein expects Robinhood's Q3 revenue to increase by 13% quarter-over-quarter to about $1.5 billion, mainly driven by growth in stock nominal trading volume, options trading volume, event contract trading volume, and a rebound in cryptocurrency trading volume. Bernstein raised its revenue expectations for Robinhood by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027, and 3% for 2028, while maintaining a target price of $160, citing improved assumptions for stock and cryptocurrency revenue.Robinhood is listed on NASDAQ, and its stock price fell to $93.6 in pre-market trading on Monday, having dropped over 29% in the past 12 months.

Bernstein raised the target price for SpaceX (SPCX.O) from $248 to $268.

The Block reported that Bernstein expects the annual trading volume in the market to reach $10 trillion by 2035.The agency predicts a trading volume of $410 billion in 2026, with cryptocurrencies, stocks, and commodities expected to surpass sports and account for 49% of the trading volume by 2035.

According to Cointelegraph, Bernstein analysts stated that after the failure of the CLARITY Act to pass the Senate procedural vote, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are expected to "actively and swiftly" advance the formulation of digital asset regulations to make up for the time spent on previous bill negotiations.Bernstein anticipates that the new regulations may cover token classifications for financing, protective measures for DeFi and self-custody protocol developers, exemptions for stock tokenization innovations, expedited approvals for perpetual contracts of real-world assets, and revisions to rules related to sports event contracts and their swap classifications. Relevant agencies may provide additional regulatory clarity for the industry through administrative rules.Analysts believe that the CLARITY Act could have reduced the risk of the regulatory framework being adjusted with changes in the political environment through legislation, but due to limited remaining legislative time and controversies over ethical provisions, the likelihood of the bill being voted on again is low.The SEC had previously proposed a new framework applicable to certain crypto asset investment contracts, intending to allow entities to issue tokens not exceeding $5 million within 4 years, or tokens not exceeding $75 million within 12 months, and set up safe harbor arrangements. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins had also stated that if Congress fails to pass the CLARITY Act, the agency has the ability to formulate digital asset rules on its own.

GSR Content and Special Projects Director Frank Chaparro forwarded that Bernstein stated the market may have underestimated the progress of the CLARITY Act. The agency noted that the latest ethical proposal "may be the best outcome," and the White House's concessions on state attorneys general enforcement and crypto asset divestment could garner enough support from Democrats for Tuesday's vote to end debate.Some Democrats may be reluctant to appear "anti-crypto" before the midterm elections. Predictive market odds have risen back above 30%. Bernstein stated, "Any positive surprise is certainly not yet priced in."

Bernstein analysts predict that Robinhood's blockchain network, Robinhood Chain, could generate up to $160 million in fee revenue annually by 2028. This forecast is based on the growing demand for tokenized stock trading, which currently accounts for about 27% of the total trading volume on the chain, while meme coin trading has decreased from 100% at its launch on July 1 to 36%.According to DefiLlama data, just over two months after its launch, Robinhood Chain has become the leading blockchain network by daily fees, generating $2.13 million in fees in the past 24 hours. On July 20, Bernstein raised the price target for Robinhood (HOOD) stock from $130 to $160 and maintained an outperform rating.However, Robinhood's on-chain stocks have recently faced criticism from AMC Entertainment Holdings CEO Adam Aron. Aron stated that the platform's tokenized stocks providing economic exposure to AMC shares are not affiliated with the company and called the move "outrageous," adding that AMC will request its external securities legal counsel to conduct an investigation.

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein maintain an outperform rating on Robinhood Markets with a target price of $160, stating that its newly launched Layer 2 network, Robinhood Chain, has become a source of profit for the company. Since its launch on July 1, the network has generated approximately $39 million in fees, with annualized fees expected to reach $160 million by 2028. Over the past 15 days, Robinhood Chain has topped all chains with approximately $33 million in fees, surpassing Solana (approximately $11 million) and BNB Chain (approximately $9 million).According to the Bernstein report, Robinhood retains about 90% of the fees, with approximately 10% going to Arbitrum, which provides the technology, and less than 1% paid to Ethereum as data fees. The value of tokenized stocks on Robinhood Chain has risen from about $10 million to $140 million over the past two months, accounting for approximately 32% of the value of tokenized equity transfers in the week of August 30, second only to BNB Chain. The total supply of stablecoins on the chain has reached approximately $1 billion, a significant increase from about $241 million in early July, with USDG accounting for about 66% and USDe for about 33%.Robinhood's stock price fell 2.09% last Friday, closing at $122.11, with the target price implying about 31% upside potential. The U.S. market was closed on Monday due to a public holiday.

According to The Block, Bernstein expects that the Bitcoin mining company IREN will achieve an annual revenue of $17 billion from its AI cloud business by 2030, at which point cloud capacity will expand to approximately 2 gigawatts.Bernstein anticipates that IREN will cease its Bitcoin mining operations by the end of 2026 and notes that the pricing for three-year AI cloud contracts has increased by about 125% since last November.

According to The Block, research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated that Bitcoin mining company IREN plans to invest $25 billion to $30 billion to expand its AI cloud business in fiscal year 2027. This scale of capital expenditure may "scare the market," but analysts believe investors are overlooking the improving economic benefits.Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani pointed out in a report to clients on Friday that the payback period for GPU capital expenditures has shortened from about three years under the 2025 Microsoft contract to about two years. IREN's fiscal year 2026 performance released on Thursday showed that AI cloud service revenue grew nearly eightfold from $16.4 million the previous year to $128.8 million, while Bitcoin mining revenue reached $578.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Total revenue rose from $501 million to $707 million, but the company recorded a net loss of $702.6 million, partly reflecting a $638.8 million impairment due to the retirement of Bitcoin mining hardware to support AI cloud expansion.Bernstein stated that IREN currently has an annualized run rate revenue of $1 billion from operating cloud and $4 billion in contract revenue, with its 2026 capacity nearly sold out. In addition to the expected $700 million related to the Nvidia contract in 2027, IREN's total contract cloud ARR amounts to $4.7 billion. Over the past 12 months, IREN has raised $19 billion through customer prepayments, GPU financing, convertible bonds, and equity issuance.

Wall Street research firm Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin will return to $125,000 by the end of 2026 and reach a cycle peak of $300,000 by 2029, with a bullish scenario potentially reaching $500,000. The firm also maintains a long-term target price of approximately $1 million for 2033.Bernstein's analysis is based on historical cycles driven by Bitcoin's halving events, which occur approximately every four years. Each cycle is divided into four stages: breakout, hype, pullback, and accumulation, and potential prices are estimated by comparing Bitcoin prices with marginal production costs. Analysts assume that the price-to-marginal cost multiple will perform similarly to previous cycles.Bernstein also expects that the Bitcoin recovery will improve the outlook for Strategy, the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, maintaining its "outperform" rating but lowering the MSTR target price from $450 to $350 due to accelerated equity dilution and updated Bitcoin cycle outlook. Strategy currently holds 840,447 Bitcoins, accounting for about 4% of Bitcoin's maximum supply.

Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reach a new high of $150,000 by mid-2027, followed by a peak of around $300,000 around 2029. The agency pointed out that this trend is related to the rise of the "debasement trade."At the same time, Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating on Strategy but has lowered its target price from $450 to $350, citing the updated Bitcoin cycle outlook and the accelerated equity dilution of the company.

According to Cointelegraph, Bernstein analysts believe that USDC shows signs of "digital dollar re-inflation," with its supply surging by $2 billion in seven days.The institution maintains an outperform rating on Circle (CRCL), setting a target price of $140, and points out that USDC's trading volume share has surpassed that of USDT.

According to The Block, research firm Bernstein reaffirmed its "Outperform" rating and maintained a target price of $140 after Circle announced its Q2 2026 financial results, believing that the company's latest performance constitutes a "reverse validation" of the market's bearish views. Bernstein analysts stated that the market currently underestimates USDC's long-term growth potential and Circle's advantages in distribution channels, liquidity, and regulatory compliance, due to two major core concerns regarding Circle—intensifying competition in stablecoins and changes in the interest rate environment that may affect reserve income.Investors may not have fully accounted for the future revenue opportunities from transaction fees, partner ecosystems, and the Arc blockchain that Circle could generate. The firm specifically pointed out that several infrastructure initiatives recently advanced by Circle, including obtaining a national trust bank license in the U.S., expanding the Circle Payments Network, and the planned launch of the Arc public chain mainnet on September 16, could all become future growth drivers. Additionally, Bernstein noted that Circle has raised its guidance for other revenues and profit margins after deducting distribution costs for 2026, expecting to confirm approximately $180 million in Arc token presale revenue.Analysts believe that future staking yields, gas fees, and ecosystem partnership revenues from Arc have not been fully reflected in current valuation expectations. As of the end of Q2, the circulating supply of USDC was $73.3 billion, a decrease of 5% from the previous quarter but an increase of 19% year-over-year. Bernstein believes that Circle is shifting from a purely crypto trading infrastructure to payments, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and broader financial infrastructure, which will drive USDC into the next phase of growth. Circle's stock closed at $63.28 on Wednesday, and Bernstein's target price of $140 implies a potential upside of about 121%.