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Galaxy CEO: Strategy stocks and preferred securities have become key indicators for measuring Bitcoin market risk

According to a report by crypto.news, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the core reason for Bitcoin's recent decline is the "collapse of confidence triggered by Strategy." The issue lies not only in the price of Bitcoin itself but also in the growing concerns in the market regarding Strategy's financing model.As the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin globally, Strategy's stock and preferred securities have become key indicators for traders to measure Bitcoin market risk. Previously, the company's Bitcoin flywheel effect had come under pressure, with stock trading prices dipping below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, indicating that its long-reliant "premium stock issuance to repurchase Bitcoin" model is being challenged. Novogratz bluntly stated that STRC trading is weak, which should have been maintained around $100. Currently, Strategy's annual dividend obligation has risen to about $1.2 billion, and a decline in cash reserves has reduced the dividend coverage period to only about 14 months.Bitcoin is also facing pressure on a macro level. Novogratz summarized the current market logic as "a strong dollar means a weak Bitcoin," with hawkish central bank signals and a strengthening dollar suppressing demand for risk assets. From a technical perspective, the $59,000 to $60,000 range for Bitcoin has become a critical defense line, and if it breaks down, the downward space could open up to $45,000.Novogratz also admitted that the current situation is complex, with a 50-50 probability of a rebound or a deep correction. Outflows from ETF funds, weak liquidity, and cautious positioning in the options market further confirm the fragile market sentiment. Now, the health of Strategy's balance sheet, the performance of STRC prices, and cash positions have evolved from being company-level issues to becoming confidence signals for the overall Bitcoin market.

Cryptocurrency stocks have fallen much more than large tech stocks: Coinbase and Circle have dropped 69% and 72% from their highs, respectively, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000, intensifying pessimism

According to Cointelegraph, in the wave of declines in technology stocks, cryptocurrency-related stocks have suffered particularly severe losses, with the divergence from the broader market continuing to widen. Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) have fallen 69% and 72% from their respective historical highs, far exceeding the 48% to 57% pullback of mainstream tech stocks like Oracle, Salesforce, Netflix, and Palantir; in contrast, the S&P 500 index has only retreated 3.5% from its recent peak.On the fundamental side, Coinbase's first-quarter performance was significantly below Wall Street expectations, with a 21% quarter-over-quarter decline in revenue and a loss of $1.49 per share, while analysts had previously expected earnings of $0.27 per share. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 this week, down more than 54% from its October peak; Ethereum also dropped to around $1,500, down about 69% from last year's high, with market sentiment continuing to deteriorate.21Shares has lowered its 2026 cryptocurrency market expectations in its mid-year outlook report, believing that the performance of digital asset prices is significantly lagging behind the industry's fundamentals. The institution pointed out that institutional adoption is still deepening, with stablecoins, asset tokenization, and prediction markets maintaining strong development momentum, but the four-year market cycle of Bitcoin remains the dominant force in price trends. The report also acknowledged previous misjudgments—"the cycle of Bitcoin is evolving, but has not yet broken," retracting its earlier assertion that the four-year cycle was outdated.Analysts believe that the deep pullback in cryptocurrency stocks reflects the overall weakness of the digital asset market, the uncertainty of legislative progress in the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure, and the compounded pressure from the potential impact of AI technology on existing business models.

The cryptocurrency market is under pressure due to intensified selling of tech stocks, with Bitcoin briefly falling to a new low since October 2024

According to the Financial Times, affected by the intensified sell-off of tech stocks, Bitcoin has fallen to a 20-month low, and market risk sentiment continues to weaken. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $60,000, with an intraday decline of up to 5.4%, reaching its lowest level since October 2024. Over the past two years, traders have regarded $60,000 as an important support level. This round of decline occurred after a sell-off of large tech stocks this week. Traders are betting that the U.S. central bank will respond to inflation by raising interest rates, which may suppress risk appetite and prompt investors to reassess overvalued assets and turn to relatively safe assets.In recent years, the correlation between crypto assets and stock movements has been high, but this relationship is currently under pressure. Bitcoin and Solana have fallen 32% and 47% respectively this year, and even a rebound in the stock market has not led to a significant recovery. Part of the reason is that retail investors' demand for cryptocurrencies has decreased, turning instead to chase the volatility of AI-related stocks. Gerry O'Shea, Global Market Insights Director at crypto asset management firm Hashdex, stated that as large public offerings and AI stocks become the market focus, market sentiment remains weak. Analysts currently do not believe there are significant catalysts in the crypto market.The U.S. capital markets are still digesting the world's largest IPO, SpaceX, which went public on Nasdaq earlier this month, with AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic also expected to follow suit. Meanwhile, the important U.S. digital asset regulatory bill, the Clarity Act, remains stalled in the Senate, facing strong opposition from the banking sector and has not yet garnered enough bipartisan support.
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