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The Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a long time, which is bearish for Bitcoin but bullish for Circle and RWA

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that in the context of rising inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve may maintain a high interest rate policy for a long time, which will have three core impacts on the cryptocurrency market. He believes that as the U.S. CPI approaches 4%, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has almost no room for interest rate cuts, and the market currently expects the first rate cut to be delayed until September 2027. Grayscale pointed out that long-term high interest rates will put pressure on "currency devaluation trades" such as Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin, like gold, is a non-yielding asset, higher real interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding dollar-denominated assets. However, it remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects and believes that regulatory benefits such as the CLARITY Act can partially offset the related pressures. In addition, it believes that a high interest rate environment will accelerate the tokenization of fixed income assets. Currently, the yields on dollar-denominated fixed income products are higher than those of most DeFi yields; for example, the USDC lending rate on Aave is about 3.6%, while the yield on short-term corporate bonds is about 4.5%. Grayscale also stated that stablecoin issuers will benefit from high interest rates. Since the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoins from paying interest to users, issuers can retain the income from reserve assets. It estimates that for every 25 basis point increase in short-term rates, Circle's revenue will increase by approximately $190 million.

Analysis: Bitcoin is oscillating between favorable regulations and rising yields, with continuous outflows from ETFs putting pressure on prices

According to Decrypt, the price of Bitcoin remains around $80,350, with a short-term increase of only 0.8%, continuing to face pressure after multiple attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level failed. This range is seen as a combined resistance level of the ETF cost line, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap filling area. Although the U.S. CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive expectations for crypto regulation, institutional funds continue to withdraw.Data shows that the net outflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has decreased to an average of -$88 million per day over the past seven days, marking the largest outflow since mid-February. Analysts believe that this round of selling pressure is more about "profit-taking" rather than panic selling. On a macro level, rising U.S. Treasury yields have become a core source of pressure. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to about 4.52%, reaching a 10-month high, while the April CPI has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, the highest level in three years, further delaying market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, thereby weakening the appeal of risk assets. From an institutional perspective, some analysts believe that the current outflow of ETF funds is part of portfolio rebalancing rather than a trend-based withdrawal.The options market shows that Bitcoin faces significant resistance in the $82,000-$84,000 range, while $77,000 is a key support level. If the price falls below this range and leverage does not cool down, the market may enter a deleveraging phase, increasing the risk of a correction.

Illustration of Arc 104's Web3 Business Partners: Circle Builds a "New Clearing Network" for the Stablecoin Era

The Web3 asset data platform RootData has outlined 104 partners of Arc, covering six core sectors: asset issuance, infrastructure, developer tools, trading, financial services, and payments. Compared to most public chains that first develop a developer ecosystem and then seek commercialization scenarios, Arc's path is clearly more aligned with the real financial circulation network. At the asset issuance level, stablecoin issuers such as AllUnity, BDACS, Bitso/Juno, and Stablecorp, as well as tokenized asset players like Centrifuge, Securitize, and WisdomTree have entered the scene, indicating that Arc prioritizes solving the "on-chain asset supply" issue, bringing dollars, bonds, and securities onto the chain. At the infrastructure level, partners like Blockdaemon, Chainalysis, Elliptic, QuickNode, and DRPC provide node services, compliance analysis, and on-chain data support. This means Arc is preparing for institutional funds, rather than following the typical Crypto public chain model of "growth first, compliance later." At the developer tools level, partners such as Axelar, Wormhole, Chainlink, MetaMask, Fireblocks, Privy, Alchemy, LayerZero, and TRM Labs are concentrated, essentially lowering the migration costs for institutions and developers, allowing funds, wallets, cross-chain, and compliance tools to be directly in place. At the trading level, institutions like Coinbase, Bybit, Kraken, Robinhood, Galaxy Digital, and B2C2 are responsible for secondary market liquidity and price discovery. The payment layer is heavily integrated by Visa, Mastercard, PhotonPay, Nuvei, EBANX, and Ramp. At the financial services level, firms like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, State Street, Aave, Maple Finance, Morpho, and BitGo are appearing simultaneously, indicating that Arc has begun to bridge traditional banking, on-chain lending, and custody systems. On the surface, Arc appears to be a new public chain, but from an ecological structure perspective, it will serve as the new financial infrastructure for the Circle stablecoin era, directly emphasizing USDC gas fees, sub-second final settlement, compliance privacy, and native CCTP integration, aiming to directly penetrate real capital flows and attempt to become SWIFT + Stripe + DTCC. Related compilation: Arc Web3 Partner Network Compilation (continuously updated) Cryptocurrency projects actively showcasing their partner networks have become a key way to enhance transparency and market trust. It is reported that RootData welcomes Web3 projects to claim their information and continues to track and open more project business relationship disclosure channels. The platform has continuously released multiple editions of the cryptocurrency project ecosystem map, nominating Web3 ecosystem partners for upstream clients like Visa, Mastercard, and Coinbase. If you wish to nominate your project in future ecosystem maps, please fill out the [RootData 2026 Industry Ecosystem Mapping] form to supplement your important clients and partners.
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