2028

The U.S. midterm elections have just concluded, and both parties have begun strategizing for the 2028 presidential election. On the Republican side, Vice President Vance has publicly linked the midterm election losses to the war in Iran, proposing four tasks: ending the war, addressing the cost of living and inflation, adhering to "America First," and adjusting U.S.-Israel relations, in an attempt to respond to voters' dissatisfaction with the Trump administration's foreign policy. However, Vance has not yet announced his candidacy and has not publicly broken with Trump. Rubio, DeSantis, and others are also listed as potential Republican candidates.On the Democratic side, the victory in the midterm elections has enhanced the political influence of several party figures. Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro, Illinois Governor Pritzker, Maryland Governor Wes Moore, and California Governor Newsom have all garnered attention. Georgia Senator Ossoff, after winning re-election, has also entered discussions as a potential candidate for 2028, although he has previously stated that he has no plans to run. Currently, neither party has officially initiated the presidential candidate nomination process. The cost of living, inflation, the war in Iran, immigration, and U.S. foreign policy are becoming core issues for potential candidates to garner party support and voter attention.

Meritz Securities, a South Korean securities company, pointed out that the orders received by storage chip manufacturers for 2027 to 2028 far exceed their production capacity. Even if the Democratic Party in the United States gains an advantage in the midterm elections, leading to delays or adjustments in some data center projects, it is unlikely to fundamentally change the supply shortage of storage chips.Meritz stated that the order delivery rate for storage chips this year (the ratio of available production capacity to order volume) has remained at a low level of 80% to 85%, driving a significant increase in storage chip prices. It is expected that the supply-demand gap will further widen in 2027, and the order delivery rate may drop to around 80%. During a recent visit to South Korea, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman requested SK hynix and Samsung Electronics to provide customized storage products such as HBM for 2027 to 2030, with demand exceeding the available production capacity of both companies.Community user Teng Yan added that Samsung stated during a conference call with Meritz on October 29 that 10 large customers have signed multi-year storage supply agreements, and an equal number of customers are in negotiations. The demand for storage customers has also expanded from cloud service giants and AI server manufacturers to more fields. Therefore, the slowdown in U.S. data center approvals will only affect some orders and is unlikely to change the overall tight supply-demand situation.

According to a report by Korean Electronic News on November 3, major global semiconductor equipment companies such as Applied Materials, ASML, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, and KLA have entered the final stages of equipment supply contracts for 2028, with some companies also beginning discussions on procurement orders for equipment available in 2029. Industry insiders say that there is a surge in demand centered around front-end processes, with a desire to quickly move equipment into fabs. Core equipment partners of companies like TSMC, Micron, and Intel are formulating supply strategies for 2029, and some Korean equipment companies that directly trade with these overseas manufacturers are also reviewing supply plans for two to three years ahead.Discussions on wafer fab equipment supply contracts typically start 6 to 12 months before implementation, with delivery taking about 3 to 6 months after purchase orders are placed. Reports indicate that investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure continues, and semiconductor manufacturers are simultaneously advancing large-scale equipment investments, with equipment delivery times now more than doubled compared to usual, with some categories exceeding 2 years, and related contracts being pushed forward by 1 to 2 years compared to normal. ASML stated during its earnings announcement last month that it expects no interruptions in the supply of lithography equipment until 2028 and is also exploring plans to expand future capacity.An executive from a global equipment company stated that discussing equipment supply three years out at this point is unusual, and combined with the current state of fab investments, this trend is expected to continue until 2030. Another industry insider mentioned that global front-end and back-end investments are proceeding in parallel, and the trend of signing equipment import contracts earlier than competitors may spread to the back-end sector, prompting Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to take measures to secure core process equipment in advance. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are currently continuing to advance their fab investments.

According to CryptoBriefing, Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake announced on November 3 that leanVM has achieved end-to-end formal verification. leanVM is a minimalist zkVM designed for efficiently aggregating hash-based post-quantum signatures, packaging multi-signatures into compact proofs. In terms of performance, leanVM can handle over 1000 leanXMSS aggregations per second; leanXMSS is a hash-based signature scheme planned to replace BLS at the consensus layer.At Devcon 8, Drake adjusted the target date for Ethereum's full transition to post-quantum security to December 2028, in order to allow space for the network forks needed for the transition. This plan relies on three open-source projects: leanVM, leanXMSS, and leanSpec. The Ethereum Foundation is developing open-source implementations and advancing formal verification, while also encouraging innovation through incentives like the Poseidon Prize. The report noted that the formal verification of leanVM proves that the code meets specifications, but December 2028 remains a target rather than a commitment.

Intel's Chief Financial Officer expects industry supply constraints to last until 2027 and extend into 2028.

Muneeb Ali, co-founder of the Bitcoin Layer2 network Stacks, stated in Cointelegraph's Chain Reaction podcast that concerns surrounding quantum computing are suppressing institutional funds from entering Bitcoin, and the network needs a credible security upgrade roadmap to restore investor confidence. He mentioned, "Quantum concerns have set a ceiling on Bitcoin's growth," believing that this uncertainty may lead risk-averse institutional investors to delay large purchases until developers provide a clear path to quantum resistance. Stacks is a Bitcoin Layer2 network aimed at introducing smart contracts and decentralized applications to Bitcoin, and Ali is a co-founder of the project.Ali warned that if developers fail to make substantial progress in quantum resistance by 2028, Bitcoin could enter a riskier phase. He pointed out that upgrades typically take years to implement, and users will need additional time to migrate their assets to new addresses. Citing guidance from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), he views 2030 as a target node for transitioning to quantum resistance and believes advancements in artificial intelligence could accelerate the development of quantum computers, potentially moving this timeline up to 2029.Ali acknowledged that some Bitcoin supporters believe the quantum threat is distant and that concerns are exaggerated, but he thinks that the very disagreement over the urgency of the threat, in the absence of a credible upgrade roadmap, will undermine investor confidence. He also stated that sufficiently powerful quantum computers are more likely to emerge from large research laboratories rather than unknown attackers, and companies like Google and Microsoft lack the motivation to steal Bitcoin, but the quantum security threat will impact the entire crypto industry, "If Bitcoin is hit, all downstream projects will be affected." Currently, developers are exploring protective solutions, with StarkWare stating in September that researchers reduced the computational cost of preparing an experimental quantum-resistant Bitcoin transaction by 79% after a week of optimization challenges. This solution does not require modifications to Bitcoin's consensus rules, but the cost reduction has only been validated in benchmark tests.

According to a report by the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, Apple is testing its first large-screen foldable iPad, with a maximum screen size of about 20 inches, expected to be 18 to 20 inches when fully unfolded, and more portable when folded. It is positioned between a tablet and a laptop, with a launch expected in 2028. The design concept references the Huawei MateBook Fold, which has already been launched in China.This news aligns with analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's previous judgment that Apple plans to launch its first large-screen foldable iPad in 2028, with a focus on minimizing creases. Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman previously described it as an ultra-large screen similar to two iPad Pros joined side by side, aimed at multitasking and productivity scenarios. It is expected to use ultra-thin glass, and Kuo believes Corning may be the exclusive supplier of the glass. GIS Group is reportedly responsible for cutting, edge finishing, quality inspection, and packaging, and both companies are also involved in other Apple foldable projects, including the foldable iPhone Duo.The report notes that the latest version of the Huawei MateBook Fold was released in August 2026, with an 18-inch unfolded size and a thickness of 7.3 millimeters when fully unfolded. It was launched in China with a starting price of 24,999 yuan. Industry insiders expect Apple's pricing for this device to be relatively high, primarily due to the manufacturing difficulties of large-size flexible screens. Previous industry forecasts estimated first-year shipments to be around 500,000 to 1 million units. This project has not yet been officially confirmed by Apple.

The Bitcoin Technology Conference Series bitcoin++ has announced the launch of "Antarctica: Cold Storage Edition," scheduled from January 24 to February 5, 2028, with only 22 spots available. This event combines a technology conference with polar exploration, bringing discussions to a colder place in line with Bitcoin's "cold storage" (the practice of keeping private keys offline). Since its launch in Austin in 2022, bitcoin++ has held about 20 events in cities such as Berlin, Buenos Aires, Taipei, and Seoul, each with a specific theme, with the next event scheduled for November 5 to 6, 2026, in Seoul focusing on privacy.Participants will depart from Ushuaia, Argentina, cross the Drake Passage to the Antarctic Peninsula, and return, with a total duration of 13 days and 12 nights. Possible stops include Neko Harbour, Paradise Bay, Port Lockroy, and Lemaire Channel. Activities include kayaking, camping, hiking, snowshoeing, and Zodiac landings, with specific landing points depending on weather, ice conditions, and the expedition team's decisions. The conference will take a non-conference format, allowing participants to propose their own talks, presentations, and discussions, with Starlink available on board and independent rooms for temporary hackathons and workshops.Reservations are currently open, with ticket prices quoted in US dollars: a four-person cabin costs $14,900, and a double cabin costs $16,700, with the option to pay in five equal installments or pay in full at the time of registration; paying in full with Bitcoin offers a 5% discount. The ticket price includes a cold-weather jacket. The final payment must be completed by October 1, 2027, and medical, evacuation, and repatriation insurance must be purchased separately. Sponsors can print their brands on the expedition jackets, with sponsorship amounts ranging from $5,000 to $25,000, each covering approximately 22 jackets. The itinerary covers the Antarctic Peninsula, not the geographic South Pole.

According to Cointelegraph, Bernstein analysts expect that the prediction market will become a new profit growth point for the trading platform Robinhood Markets (HOOD), potentially bringing in about $1.7 billion in revenue by 2028, surpassing the estimated $1.6 billion from its cryptocurrency business during the same period.Analysts predict that Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from about $650 million this year to $1.7 billion by 2028, accounting for approximately 18% of its total revenue of $9.4 billion in 2028.This forecast was released the day before Robinhood's Q3 2026 earnings report. Bernstein expects Robinhood's Q3 revenue to increase by 13% quarter-over-quarter to about $1.5 billion, mainly driven by growth in stock nominal trading volume, options trading volume, event contract trading volume, and a rebound in cryptocurrency trading volume. Bernstein raised its revenue expectations for Robinhood by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027, and 3% for 2028, while maintaining a target price of $160, citing improved assumptions for stock and cryptocurrency revenue.Robinhood is listed on NASDAQ, and its stock price fell to $93.6 in pre-market trading on Monday, having dropped over 29% in the past 12 months.

NVIDIA stated that Amkor plans to increase its advanced packaging capacity by over 300% by the end of 2028.

Elon Musk stated that the goal of the Terafab project at Gibbons Creek is to achieve mass production of chips around the third quarter of 2028, with the first test chip expected to operate normally in May or June 2027.

According to the Industrial and Commercial Times, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has approved TSMC's first phase plan for the production of advanced semiconductors using 3-nanometer process at its second factory in Kumamoto Prefecture. This will be the first time a manufacturer in Japan produces 3-nanometer chips. TSMC can further expand its production capacity based on additional support from the Japanese government. Kumamoto Prefectural Governor Seiji Kimura stated that this plan will drive a new wave of creative revitalization.The Nikkei reported that the Ministry of Economy has listed the Kumamoto second factory as a recipient of subsidies, with plans to produce 3-nanometer chips, expected to officially start production in December 2028, with final capacity depending on the amount of subsidies. The Ministry will include the budget needed for subsidies in the fiscal year 2027 budget request, with the Japanese government originally planning to provide 732 billion yen in subsidies. The Asahi Shimbun pointed out that the Kumamoto second factory is still under construction and is adjacent to the already operational Kumamoto first factory.Previously, TSMC planned for the second factory to manufacture 6-nanometer and 12-nanometer processes, with a monthly capacity of 48,000 wafers, and planned to produce 40-nanometer chips; in February this year, the plan was changed to 3-nanometer, reducing the monthly capacity to 6,000 wafers. The adjustment plan for the Kumamoto first factory was also approved by the Ministry, with the original plan to produce 55,000 wafers per month covering 22 to 28 nanometers and 12 to 16 nanometers, while the new plan stops production of 12 to 16 nanometers, changing to 45,000 wafers per month for 22 to 28 nanometers.

Market research firms Counterpoint Research and TrendForce stated on the 18th that China's DRAM manufacturer Changxin Storage's monthly wafer production capacity is expected to expand from the current approximately 320,000 wafers to 420,000 wafers by 2027, adding about 100,000 wafers in just over a year, an increase of 31.3%.The industry expects that Changxin Storage's monthly DRAM wafer production capacity will reach 500,000 to 600,000 wafers by the end of 2028. If calculated at the upper limit of 600,000 wafers, this would be an increase of 280,000 wafers compared to the current level, an increase of approximately 87.5%.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange published a consultation summary document regarding the shortening of the settlement cycle for the Hong Kong stock cash market, showing broad support for the implementation of a T+1 settlement cycle in the Hong Kong securities market. After consolidating stakeholder opinions, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange plans to complete the relevant transition in the second half of 2028, provided that the market is ready and regulatory approval is obtained.A total of 109 unique responses were received during this consultation, from market stakeholders including brokers, custodians, investment managers, industry associations, technology providers, and investors. Respondents agreed on Hong Kong adopting a T+1 settlement cycle and recognized that this move would help enhance market efficiency, reduce settlement risks, improve capital efficiency, and strengthen Hong Kong's competitiveness as an international financial center.

The scenarios envisioned in the IMF World Economic Outlook report indicate that global GDP will decrease by 1.1% by 2028 due to the withdrawal of investments in artificial intelligence and a sharp decline in asset prices.

Investment bank TD Cowen's Washington research group Managing Director Jaret Seiberg stated in a report released on Monday that the proposed rulemaking advance notice issued by the CFTC last week is a positive step for crypto platforms, but the agency may not complete the rulemaking until early 2028. As the 2028 election cycle approaches, there is a risk that the rule may ultimately not be implemented. Seiberg noted, "Time is running out," and expects that the CFTC will not issue proposals until the end of the first quarter or early second quarter of 2027, with final rules possibly not being finalized until early 2028.Last week, the CFTC proposed a federal regulatory framework for crypto platforms but avoided direct jurisdiction over spot market trading. According to Seiberg, the proposed rules will require platforms to maintain "reserve proof audits" and grant the CFTC jurisdiction over state-licensed platforms. Previously, the U.S. Senate failed to pass legislation that would grant the CFTC broad powers over spot crypto trading in a preliminary vote, leading the CFTC and SEC to intervene in regulating the crypto industry, including the introduction of long-awaited innovation exemptions, but both agencies lack the permanence that legislation could provide.Seiberg also pointed out that if the CFTC decides to expedite the rulemaking process, it may actually increase the risk of court intervention. He stated that speeding up this process would raise the risk of judges blocking the rule on procedural grounds, and even if the agency is cautious enough, legal challenges could extend beyond 2028.

Digital Asset co-founder and CEO Yuval Rooz stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that the crypto industry should leverage the current regulatory environment to accelerate institutional adoption, believing that the widespread use of blockchain will make it harder for future governments to reverse industry progress. He compared this opportunity to Uber and Airbnb, stating that both companies had established themselves before policymakers effectively restricted them, saying, "By the time people react and decide to legislate against these companies, it will be too late."Rooz indicated that the industry should ensure blockchain is widely used so that no matter what happens in 2028, "there is no turning back." The next U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 7, 2028, which may bring changes in government and regulatory priorities. This statement comes in the context of the CLARITY Act failing to advance in the Senate procedural vote in September, while the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have been advancing crypto regulation based on existing authority.In the same Token2049 panel discussion, Binance co-CEO Richard Teng expressed hope that the CLARITY Act could still become law, believing that legislation could prevent regulatory backtracking and encourage institutional entry, calling the possibility of reversing current progress the industry's "greatest fear." Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson stated that legislation would provide greater certainty, but the industry should not rely on the passage of the CLARITY Act, as the SEC and CFTC are already working to provide regulatory clarity to sustain innovation and institutional adoption.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the event "Indiana Data Center Shutdown Order Implementation Date" is currently among the hottest trades on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative pool size reaching 2.44 million dollars. The option with the highest market consensus is "December 31, 2028," corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 21.5%.

According to a research report released by Geoff Kendrick, the Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, Standard Chartered has officially launched coverage research on Ethena (ENA), predicting that the ENA token will rise to $2 by the end of 2028.The report points out that Ethena is currently the fourth largest stablecoin issuer in the world (after Tether, Circle, and Sky), and its stablecoin USDe quickly became the fastest stablecoin to surpass a market capitalization of $10 billion after its launch at the end of 2023. Currently, yield-bearing stablecoins account for about 5% of the overall stablecoin market, and this proportion is expected to continue to expand as user demand for yield grows.In terms of sources of yield, USDe has gradually diversified from its early reliance on crypto basis trading (which once provided over 20% annualized yield) to include real-world assets (RWA) and stock perpetual contract basis. Standard Chartered predicts that the on-chain RWA scale will grow from the current approximately $40 billion to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, providing support for ENA's buyback plan and price increase.