When will the cryptocurrency market change?

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that during the current consolidation phase of the crypto market, investors are taking the opportunity to reassess asset allocation, adjust strategies, or review their overall exposure to the crypto market. Today, altcoins accounted for 51% of the total trading volume on Binance, which is in stark contrast to early March when altcoin trading volume significantly shrank to only 31% of the platform's total trading volume.Meanwhile, the market shares of BTC and ETH have both declined, currently accounting for 30% and 17%, respectively. Darkfost pointed out that although the overall market environment remains uncertain, there is currently a gradual rotation of liquidity from leading assets like BTC and ETH to altcoins.

According to The Block, despite the renewed tensions between the United States and Iran disrupting expectations in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to fluctuations in the oil, stock, and cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin stabilized around $75,200 on Monday.Analysts stated that the net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week was $996.4 million, marking the strongest weekly performance since mid-January, with institutional demand providing support for the market. However, the current market remains in a "fragile balance," with stablecoin balances continuing to grow, indicating that liquidity in the crypto market is more rotating internally rather than flowing out.

According to analyst Alicharts, Bitcoin is at a critical turning point. Bitcoin is testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance level, marking its third test in six months. The previous two tests ended in failure: in October last year, Bitcoin faced rejection, leading to a 30% drop from $116,000 to $80,000. In January, Bitcoin similarly faced rejection, resulting in a 39% drop from $97,000 to $59,800.Alicharts warns that a third rejection here would represent a significant structural failure. It could trigger a triple top effect, potentially pushing Bitcoin's price back to the annual low of $59,800. If BTC can ultimately break through this barrier and close above the 100-day SMA, then the upper limit will be breached. A breakout here would open a direct path to $80,000 - $84,000, confirming that the macro adjustment may have ended.

According to market news, Bitcoin has risen 8% in the past two weeks, currently reported around $74,000. Max Kahn, CEO of Digital Wealth Partners, pointed out that the next round of Bitcoin's rise depends on three key factors: first, the trend of energy-driven inflation data; second, expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If inflation is controlled and the market shifts to expectations of easing, it will directly benefit risk assets like Bitcoin; third, the continuous inflow of institutional funds. In April, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $523 million, continuing the strong performance since March.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin rose over 5% on Tuesday, reaching a daily high of $76,120, the highest level since February 6, successfully reclaiming the key support area of $75,000—where the 100-day exponential moving average and simple moving average intersect. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin broke through the upper boundary of the ascending triangle at $73,000 on Monday.Analyst CryptoBlockto stated, "Bitcoin broke through $76,000, standing above the March high, sending a bullish signal of renewed strength." He pointed out that if the daily close stabilizes above the $75,000 moving average area, it will confirm the breakout of the pattern, with the next resistance level at the psychological barrier of $80,000, and the measured target of the ascending triangle pointing to $89,050, about 18% higher than the current price. The daily RSI has now risen to 63, having previously fallen to the oversold area of 15 on February 6.On-chain data shows that the average daily number of Bitcoin transactions has increased by 62% since 2026, reaching 765,130 on April 5, a new 17-month high, comparable to the level when Bitcoin first broke $100,000 during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Analyst CW8900 stated, "The current daily transaction count for Bitcoin is higher than when BTC was priced at $120,000, indicating that the network is exhibiting bullish behavior."Glassnode noted in its latest market report that the total fee income from Bitcoin over the past week increased by 4%, rising to $153,700, indicating "increased on-chain demand," and stated, "This growth suggests a rise in network activity and may indicate that users' willingness to increase fee spending for priority processing of transactions is changing."

According to CoinDesk, the price of Bitcoin has broken a four-week high and has now risen to over $74,000.Analysis indicates that $75,000 is a key "volatility release point," and due to the negative gamma effect in the derivatives market, price fluctuations may be amplified. This range also coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, which became a major resistance level in January of this year.If the price breaks above $75,000, the upward trend may accelerate further; if it falls back, it could increase downward pressure. The range of $80,000 to $80,600 is a positive gamma zone, where market volatility is relatively low, and the trend may tend toward range-bound fluctuations. Additionally, the 200-day moving average is currently at $87,519, serving as a long-term price reference.

According to Cointelegraph, after the release of the U.S. CPI data, Bitcoin briefly rose to $73,000, attempting to refresh the new high for the phase. The data shows that overall inflation in the U.S. is slightly lower than market expectations, but the significant rise in energy prices has created a divergence signal.Specifically, the U.S. CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, with the month-on-month data 0.1% lower than expected; among them, energy prices increased by 10.9%, and gasoline prices surged by 21.2% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month increase since 1967.The financial market's reaction was relatively restrained, with U.S. stocks opening basically flat, and Bitcoin did not experience significant fluctuations. Meanwhile, influenced by previous PCE data, the market has largely ruled out the possibility of a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.On the trading front, analysts believe that Bitcoin is operating within a converging range. If it attempts to hit key highs again in the short term, the market's reaction will become an important signal for subsequent trends, with around $74,000 seen as a key liquidity area.

According to CoinDesk, as market sentiment improves, the Bitcoin options market is showing a significant shift. The call options with a strike price of $80,000 on Deribit have become the most popular trades, with an open interest exceeding $1.6 billion, surpassing the previously dominant $60,000 put options (with an open interest of about $1.41 billion). Analysts believe that the recent temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has led to a decline in oil prices, easing inflation expectations, which may enhance the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, thereby benefiting risk assets including Bitcoin.In addition, asset management firm 21Shares stated that with continued inflows into ETFs and increased institutional holdings, if the geopolitical situation eases and the regulatory environment improves, Bitcoin could potentially surge to $100,000 by the end of the second quarter. However, risks remain in the market; the current ceasefire situation is relatively fragile, and if the conflict in the Middle East escalates again, a rebound in oil prices could suppress market risk appetite, thereby limiting Bitcoin's upside potential.