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fundstrat

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Article
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first_img Tom Lee stated that the AI stock sell-off has bottomed out, and Bitcoin's resilience shows that the selling pressure may have been released

Co-founder of Fundstrat and Chairman of Bitmine, Tom Lee, stated on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that he believes the sell-off in AI stocks has bottomed out, reasoning that the demand in the AI market remains tight and supply is limited, not due to overcapacity. He admitted that determining the bottom is very difficult, saying, "At the bottom, you don't know how much more downside there is, so the bottom is dangerous." He further pointed out that spending constraints, including political resistance, are slowing down industry growth, but this does not mean the AI boom has peaked.This judgment is particularly critical for companies related to AI infrastructure. Taking the data center business as an example, the supply shortage may cause customers to queue and also limit suppliers' ability to convert orders into revenue. Intel's stock plummeted nearly 30% to $65.76 last Friday due to its fourth-quarter earnings guidance falling short of expectations; despite revenue from data center and AI business growing 78% year-on-year to $7.3 billion, manufacturing capacity constraints still prevent it from meeting demand. The company expects quarterly revenue to be between $15 billion and $16 billion, with the median about $1.6 billion lower than analysts' expectations, and the weak PC business further increases pressure.Lee's second argument comes from the cryptocurrency market. He noted that the cryptocurrency market's reaction to the Binance security incident was relatively limited, with the exchange initially estimating the affected scale at about $6.3 billion. He believes that if cryptocurrency is a leading indicator of risk assets, then the sellers have basically cleared out. Last Friday, Bitcoin fell about 4% to around $76,400, with over $1.3 billion in leveraged positions being liquidated, and the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $643.2 million that day, marking the largest single-day outflow in October. Binance stated that it has frozen about $3 billion in affected assets and promised to cover the losses with emergency reserves and company funds.

Tom Lee responds to the contradiction with Fundstrat's outlook: short-term defense and long-term bullishness can coexist

Regarding the contradictory outlook on Bitcoin from Tom Lee and his Fundstrat analysts (Tom Lee is bullish, while Fundstrat is bearish), Fundstrat client Cassian posted that the interpretation of this debate is unfair and misleading. Tom Lee retweeted and replied, "Well said."Cassian stated: This interpretation is taken out of context; the actual situation involves collaboration among different teams, over different time periods, and with different responsibilities.Cassian mentioned that the three core figures at Fundstrat have clearly defined roles: Tom Lee is responsible for the macro and liquidity framework and is the most vocal, maintaining a long-term bullish view on crypto assets; Sean Farrell, as the head of digital asset strategy, is responsible for specific crypto portfolios and position adjustments. Assuming BTC pulls back to $60,000-$65,000, he would convert about 50% of the portfolio to cash/stablecoins, which is a risk management action rather than a long-term bearish stance; Mark Newton approaches from a technical perspective, believing that the October pullback disrupted the original upward trend. He expects a rebound first, followed by a period of consolidation, and after structural repair, there is still room for growth by the end of the year. The three have a high degree of consensus on macro risk: the overall environment will be very unstable in the first half of 2026, with differences in that Sean focuses on short-term defense, Mark looks at technical structure repair, and Tom maintains a structural bullish view from a longer-term and liquidity perspective.Cassian stated that he personally holds a large amount of BitMine stock and would not sell even if the price pulls back by 70%, because the risk of "missing out on a big rise" is greater than the reward of "trying to catch the bottom." He emphasized that understanding who is speaking, what their responsibilities are, and the time horizon is crucial. Once these pieces are put together, the claim that "Fundstrat is contradictory" falls apart.

Opinion: Cryptocurrency investors are closely watching whether Trump can fulfill his promises within the first 100 days of his term

ChainCatcher news, according to Morningstar, investors seeking to continue the cryptocurrency bull market will closely monitor any regulatory changes in 2025, as well as whether Trump's commitments to the crypto industry will materialize. Trump has repeatedly vowed to support the crypto industry during his campaign and has received backing from several key figures in the sector.Fundstrat's head of digital assets, Sean Farrell, explained, "The first 100 days of Trump's term will be very, very important, as analysts often use the 'first 100 days' as a benchmark for measuring the efficiency and influence of an incoming U.S. president." Although the incoming president has yet to outline any specific plans, investors will be watching to see if Trump fulfills his promise to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S., which primarily includes:Clear guidelines on which cryptocurrencies should be classified as securities;Whether Trump will fulfill his commitment to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S.;Any changes to the SAB121 bill, which establishes accounting standards for companies that custody cryptocurrencies, requiring publicly traded companies, including banks, to recognize the cryptocurrencies they hold in custody as liabilities on their balance sheets;Whether the Federal Reserve will significantly lower its key policy interest rates in 2025.
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