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CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that despite the challenges posed by the US-Iran conflict and inflationary pressures on the market, there have been recent signs of recovery in the altcoin market. He pointed out that after experiencing an overall correction of over 50%, the altcoin sector is gradually regaining activity. This round of adjustment is influenced not only by the BTC correction but also by the dilution of market tokens. Currently, there are approximately 51 million altcoins in the market, with 46% deployed on Solana, 36% on Base, and 10% from the BSC chain.He noted that the overall performance of altcoins listed on Binance has returned to levels seen since September 2025. Currently, about 21% of altcoins listed on Binance have regained their position above the 200-day moving average, while only 2% of tokens maintained above this key technical level in February of this year.Darkfost believes this indicates that market interest in altcoins is gradually rising, which is an important signal for investors looking to allocate to altcoins. However, he also emphasized that it is still too early to determine if the "altcoin season" has begun, as market liquidity remains limited.

The Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator from CryptoQuant has recently turned green for the first time since 2023. On-chain analyst Julio Moreno stated that this usually indicates the market is switching from a bear market structure to a recovery phase. Moreno pointed out that historically, when this indicator exits the bear market zone and enters the "Early Bull" range, it often means that the worst adjustment phase has ended and the market structure begins to repair. However, several analysts emphasize that this indicator is more suitable for judging market phase transitions rather than precise trading signals. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that the greatest significance of such indicators lies in determining "whether Bitcoin has stopped behaving like a bear market asset," and real confirmation still requires sustained demand, improved liquidity, and prices stabilizing at key levels. Currently, Bitcoin has not effectively broken through the $82,000 resistance level. Although it has rebounded about 35% from a low of around $60,000 in February this year, the market remains in a tug-of-war state. Moreno believes that to truly confirm a bull market signal, Bitcoin needs to digest some current "weakness" indicators while facing pressure from a neutral greed-fear index and a complex macro environment. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Bitcoin has completed a phase of bottoming around $60,000 this year. He stated that once it breaks through $90,000, the market may enter an "explosive phase," targeting the previous high of $126,000. Meanwhile, some analysts also remind that on-chain indicators like MVRV and NUPL are essentially more aligned with a "behavioral cycle framework" and should not be seen as absolute predictive tools.

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV, the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator has turned into an "early bull market" signal for the first time since March 2023. Historically, this signal has appeared after 2019 and early 2023, indicating that the worst adjustment phase has passed and the market structure is beginning to recover. However, there was one exception in March 2022 when the indicator also entered the early bull market zone, but the price was subsequently rejected, confirming a local top rather than a new bull market.Regarding the current signal for May 2026, the analyst believes that Bitcoin is no longer behaving as a deeply bearish asset, and the recovery of the 30-day moving average indicates that market momentum is improving. However, several other market indicators have shown signs of fatigue, making this signal less clear than a classic early cycle confirmation. The analyst tends to believe that this is more likely a local top rather than the beginning of a new bull market, unless the price strongly confirms this trend in the future.

CryptoQuant analyst Oro Crypto (@oro_crypto) stated that the adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR) of Bitcoin has returned to a structurally key area. This indicator has remained above 1 for 9 consecutive trading days since May 1, indicating that the market is continuously realizing profit sales.aSOPR is used to measure whether the Bitcoin being spent on-chain is in a profit or loss state. A value greater than 1 indicates that, on average, the spent BTC is being sold at a profit, while a value less than 1 indicates that it is being handled at a loss. The significance of this signal lies in its persistence; the consecutive 9-day sequence reduces noise interference and shows that a substantial change in market structure has occurred. The last similar consecutive profit sequence appeared from October 19 to November 4, 2025, during which BTC also experienced several consecutive days of on-chain profit spending.From a market structure perspective, this indicates that Bitcoin is absorbing profit-taking selling pressure, and the price structure has not immediately deteriorated, showing that the market currently exhibits sufficient absorption capacity. This reading does not necessarily mean entering a euphoric phase, but rather indicates that the market has shifted from a loss realization environment to a phase where participants are continuously realizing profits. As long as aSOPR remains above 1, the market structure remains constructive: participants are cashing in profits while the market maintains its absorption capacity. The key failure level is clear: if the indicator continues to fall below the 1 threshold, it means the market will start handling tokens at a loss again, which would weaken the current constructive signal.Bitcoin is not only being sold again at a profit, but this process is also persistent. This persistence transforms aSOPR into a constructive signal reflecting internal market improvement, marking the most significant positive sequence since October to November 2025.

According to The Block, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin has risen over 20% to a three-month high since early April, but research director Julio Moreno still views it as a "bear market rally."He pointed out that Bitcoin holders realized an average daily profit of 14,600 Bitcoins on May 4, the highest level since December 10, 2025. The spending output profit ratio for short-term holders has remained above 1 since mid-April, indicating that the market has entered a "clear profit-taking zone." Moreno noted that the 30-day rolling net profit has reached +20,000 Bitcoins, marking the first positive reading since December 22, 2025, signaling a structural turning point in bear market dynamics.However, this level is far below the typical range of 130,000 to 200,000 Bitcoins during a bull market confirmation period. The current unrealized profit margin is 18%, and historical experience suggests that high levels of unrealized profits increase the risk of a pullback. However, the demand for perpetual futures remains strong, spot demand is moderately contracting, and exchange inflows are sluggish, indicating that a pullback may take some time to materialize.

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant stated that with the recent price increase, profit-taking behavior in the Bitcoin market may further increase.Data shows that Bitcoin has risen over 20% since early April, but the firm still defines this market movement as a "bear market rally." The current profit metric for short-term holders remains above 1, indicating that the market has been in a continuous profit-taking phase since mid-April. Analysts believe that although selling pressure is rising, a price correction may still take time to manifest.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that the Bitcoin market is still dominated by the futures market, with the recent bullish momentum mainly coming from investors gradually returning to the derivatives market. Although the funding rate has remained negative for several weeks, the open interest in Bitcoin has recorded its largest increase since 2026, surpassing the increase during the historical peak period of 2025.Darkfost pointed out that while this reflects a slow return of market optimism, it has also led to a more fragile market structure, where high leverage positions can easily amplify volatility and liquidation risks.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that Bitcoin has risen over 36% since the low on February 6. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's dominance has also increased, surpassing 61.3%, returning to the high since November 2025, indicating that funds are still highly concentrated in Bitcoin.In contrast, altcoins are still under pressure but have shown early signs of stabilization. TOTAL3 (the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH) has increased by about 15% during the same period. Among the altcoins listed on Binance, 11.7% have returned above the 200-day moving average (only 2.3% on February 6), breaking the downward trend since October 2025.Additionally, the trading volume of altcoins on Binance has risen from 31% to 49% of the total trading volume of BTC and ETH, indicating that investor interest is slowly returning.

CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno wrote in a report: "The demand for perpetual futures contracts is the only driving force behind the rise in Bitcoin prices, while the apparent demand for spot continues to shrink. This structure has historically appeared during bear markets and is often difficult to maintain an upward trend."Moreno stated that the divergence between rising futures demand and shrinking spot demand is one of the clearest signals on-chain, indicating that this rally is more speculative rather than driven by structural growth. He pointed out that this means the price increase is mainly driven by leverage rather than new inflows of Bitcoin.Moreno also said: "Historically, this type of structure lacks the foundation to support sustained price increases, and once futures positions begin to unwind, it usually corrects through price pullbacks." CryptoQuant indicated that the current demand structure driven by perpetual futures is similar to the situation at the beginning of the bear market in 2022. While this does not mean that the same outcome will necessarily occur this time, the current structure does present significant downside risks.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on the X platform, stating that the adjusted realized price range model calibrated to Bitcoin's current circulating supply shows that this round of Bitcoin falling to the key range of $59,000 marks the beginning of a true medium to long-term bottoming process. Bottoming is not a short-term process and will not be completed in one to two weeks; the baseline scenario is expected to take about six months.Axel Adler Jr emphasized that although Bitcoin has seen some recent increases, the core factor driving market stabilization is not emotional recovery or local rebounds, but rather the return of long-term real demand. This means that the bottom may only be truly established when the market begins to reprice future value and spot buying continues to recover.

CryptoQuant posted on platform X that the current pullback of BTC is still higher than the previous panic sell-off low. This does not guarantee further declines, but the current situation still has substantial differences from past cyclical lows.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain, the number of Bitcoin miner deposit transactions has significantly decreased recently, with the current reading at approximately 8,138 transactions, one of the lowest levels in history. This data once exceeded 100,000 transactions by the end of 2025, reflecting a large amount of Bitcoin deposited by miners, which is usually associated with selling intentions or profit-taking. However, since the beginning of 2026, this indicator has shown an overall downward trend, with no clear peak.The current selling pressure from Bitcoin miners has significantly eased, which may provide additional support for the market. The decrease in transaction numbers not only indicates a reduction in deposit amounts but also suggests a lower frequency of transfers to exchanges, reflecting a more conservative behavior among miners.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on the X platform that Binance attracted a total of $6 billion in stablecoin inflows in March and April, with nearly $3.5 billion in net inflows in April, contrasting sharply with the previous net outflow of about $7.6 billion.Despite the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran increasing market uncertainty and concerns about rising inflation being unfavorable for risk assets, the trend of stablecoin inflows has clearly shifted. The analyst pointed out that when inflows to major exchanges exceed outflows, it indicates that some parts of the market are beginning to reposition themselves to participate in the gradual recovery over the past two months. If this trend continues, it may provide support for a short-term positive market.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that the recent rise in Bitcoin is mainly driven by the futures market, while on-chain spot demand remains negative.He pointed out that, based on historical experience, bear markets typically require a synchronized recovery of both spot and futures demand to potentially end.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that after the release of market pressure in the spring, the selling pressure from short-term holders (STH) has significantly eased. The Bitcoin market repair is still ongoing, and the current price is close to the cost line of short-term holders. The key trigger for the subsequent trend lies in whether it can effectively stabilize above the short-term holder cost basis of about $83,000. Only by breaking through and stabilizing above this level can the market further validate the actual selling pressure strength of short-term holders and whether it will suppress the price drop again.

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ tweeted that if Bitcoin can rise above and hold the $80,000 mark, this position will turn from resistance to support; conversely, if it encounters rejection and falls back, it will confirm $80,000 as a significant selling pressure area, potentially extending the adjustment period into the second quarter.Currently, the realized price for BTC ETF investors is about $76,400, which is close to the spot price (around $76,300), marking the first time since January 30 that it has approached the breakeven point; short-term holder whales have a realized price around $79,600 and are currently facing an unrealized loss of about $9.4 billion.MorenoDV_ pointed out that historically, when these trapped funds are finally released, it often triggers significant selling pressure. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating in the $76,000-$80,000 range, where $80,000 is not only an important psychological level but also a common breakeven and release threshold for these two major groups.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that during the current consolidation phase of the crypto market, investors are taking the opportunity to reassess asset allocation, adjust strategies, or review their overall exposure to the crypto market. Today, altcoins accounted for 51% of the total trading volume on Binance, which is in stark contrast to early March when altcoin trading volume significantly shrank to only 31% of the platform's total trading volume.Meanwhile, the market shares of BTC and ETH have both declined, currently accounting for 30% and 17%, respectively. Darkfost pointed out that although the overall market environment remains uncertain, there is currently a gradual rotation of liquidity from leading assets like BTC and ETH to altcoins.

According to Cryptoquant, the Bitcoin Comprehensive Market Index (BCMI), composed of MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and the Fear and Greed Index, is currently testing a historically key pivot zone. Analyst Woominkyu (@Woo_Minkyu) stated that the BCMI index has fallen to the range of 0.2 to 0.3. While it does not guarantee an immediate "V-shaped" reversal, this area historically corresponds to deeply undervalued levels for BTC.Through data backtracking, BCMI confirms that the current pullback has reset realized value and market sentiment to levels not seen since the beginning of 2023; however, the 90-day moving average (white line) is still trending downward. From a conservative perspective, it is necessary to wait for this slope to flatten, which will signal the exhaustion of selling pressure. Additionally, analyst Woominkyu believes the market is entering a "value accumulation zone," where the downside potential is shrinking compared to the long-term upside potential. However, it is still necessary to wait for price stabilization to confirm the bottom signal of the index.

According to The Block, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated on Wednesday that Bitcoin's recent rally is facing an increasing risk of profit-taking, with multiple on-chain indicators showing that selling pressure is strengthening. Currently, the price of Bitcoin has slightly retreated but is testing the on-chain "realized price" of $76,800 for traders. This level is seen as a significant bearish resistance, historically often limiting the rebound space, as holders close to breaking even are more inclined to sell for profit, thereby suppressing further increases.Moreno pointed out, "This price range precisely capped the price increase during the bear market rebound in January 2026 and reversed downward after reaching that level. If the current selling pressure continues to strengthen, a similar trend may occur again." He added that if the resistance level holds, approximately $67,600 below will become the main short-term support. The report also noted that the proportion of large trades has rapidly increased from less than 10% to over 40%, and historically, this level usually corresponds to strong short-term selling pressure. Profit-taking has not yet peaked. Currently, the daily realized profit is about $500 million, below the $1 billion threshold that historically marks significant sell-off peaks.Finally, Moreno stated that if Bitcoin remains above $76,000, or even approaches the realized price level of $76,800, the daily realized profit could accelerate to over $1 billion, thereby increasing selling pressure and raising the likelihood of a temporary top or correction in the market.

CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin's recent rebound is facing increasing selling pressure risks, with on-chain data showing a significant rise in funds flowing into exchanges. Bitcoin previously broke through $76,000 but faced pressure and retreated as it approached the key resistance zone around $76,800. This position corresponds to the "on-chain realized price" range, which historically often becomes the top of a rebound, as many investors with positions close to breakeven tend to sell.Data shows that the hourly inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges has risen to about 11,000 coins, the highest level since the end of 2025, and is typically seen as a potential selling signal. At the same time, the scale of large holders (whales) transferring to exchanges is also expanding. Analysts believe that if this resistance level remains effective, Bitcoin may face short-term correction pressure, with key support levels around $67,600.