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CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the current Bitcoin purchasing behavior of Strategy resembles a "liquidity absorber" rather than an effective price catalyst.He pointed out that in the past two years, Bitcoin's market capitalization has increased by $467 billion, yet the price has actually dropped by 1%, indicating that the influx of large amounts of capital has merely resulted in a transfer of chips without driving up the price. In the current environment with obvious selling pressure, continuous buying by Strategy may only serve to maintain the range rather than truly drive an increase.Ki Young Ju suggested that Strategy pause Bitcoin purchases until cash reserves and dividend coverage capabilities are restored; establish a systematic, model-driven buying framework to avoid the market impression of "always buying at local highs"; and create a disciplined selling mechanism in the next bull market to reduce leverage and realize shareholder value by partially taking profits at highs, while accumulating reserves of "dry powder" for future lows.He believes that this cycle is different from previous ones, as Bitcoin has been in a sideways trend for nearly two years, neither forming a strong bull market nor experiencing sufficient panic selling and weak hands clearing out. The market may need a more thorough clearing to initiate a healthier rebound.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the phenomenon of Bitcoin driving funds into altcoins, which once boosted altcoin markets, has basically disappeared. He pointed out that since 2021, the trading volume of altcoins paired with BTC has significantly shrunk, and the market structure has undergone noticeable changes. Ki Young Ju believes that the era of "Bitcoin rising leading to a general rise in altcoins" may have ended, and in the future, altcoins may rely more on their own fundamentals, application scenarios, and independent capital inflows to drive price increases.

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin network activity has risen to a level approximately 7% away from the historical peak in September 2024, and has broken through the long-term trend line for the first time since mid-2024, primarily driven by a large number of small transactions rather than traditional economic payment activities. The daily number of Bitcoin transactions in 2026 has exceeded 800,000, more than doubling from the low point in 2025, approaching the cycle peak from 2023 to 2025.CryptoQuant believes that this growth has structural characteristics rather than being a short-term fluctuation. Among these, small transactions below 0.01 BTC now account for about 80%, significantly higher than about 44% in 2023. This change is closely related to the usage of OP_RETURN, which is near historical highs. CryptoQuant points out that protocols such as Runes, Ordinals, BRC-20, and data timestamp services generate a large number of low-value transactions by writing data to the blockchain, with some transaction amounts as low as 546 satoshis.As inscription activities increase, the number of transactions in the Bitcoin mempool has risen to about 128,000, the highest level since February 2025. Although still below the extreme congestion levels of September 2023 and November 2024, the report suggests that non-financial use transactions are occupying an increasing amount of Bitcoin network throughput, and if this trend continues, it may drive up transaction fees for time-sensitive economic transactions.Meanwhile, the rise in on-chain activity contrasts with the flow of funds. There has been a net outflow of over $528 million from Bitcoin and Ethereum spot funds; however, institutional investors still view ETF fund flows as the core driving force of this cycle and maintain the benchmark expectation that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of the year.

CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated that transactions below 0.01 BTC currently account for about 80% of the total daily transaction volume on the Bitcoin network, significantly higher than approximately 44% in 2023.Moreno pointed out that this growth is mainly driven by on-chain data protocols based on OP_RETURN, such as Runes, Ordinals, BRC-20, and data timestamp services. These protocols generate a large number of small transactions, with some transaction sizes even as low as 546 satoshis (about $0.35), thereby continuously increasing the number of low-value transfers. In addition, the Bitcoin network activity index has been steadily rising since January of this year and has now reached its highest level since the end of 2024.

CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech analysis states that the selling pressure of altcoins on spot exchanges has reached extreme levels not seen in five years, with the spot market experiencing net selling for 15 consecutive months. The cumulative trading volume of altcoins, excluding BTC and ETH, has recorded the lowest negative value since data tracking began in 2020; this indicator was close to neutral in early 2025, but then turned significantly negative again and has continued to decline since.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated, "Altcoins have not died, but purely narrative altcoins are dead." The era where one could make money simply by issuing a token is no longer. He believes that the altcoins that can survive and are worth paying attention to in the future can be divided into the following three main camps: first, global internet companies with tokenized market layers, where in some cases issuing tokens is more pragmatic than tokenized equity listings, such as BNB and GRAM (TON); second, DeFi services with real revenue, such as Hyperliquid and high-quality DeFi protocols; third, projects that align with broader financial trends. Ki Young Ju concluded that just as true IT giants emerged after the internet bubble, real crypto enterprises will also emerge after this cycle.

CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu stated that the BTC whale sell-off has ended, with total whale holdings turning from a decline to an increase after 12 consecutive days of decrease, and the price rebounding to $65,704.89.From June 5 to 10, during the low point of $61,400, the exchange whale ratio once rose to 62.3%, while over 11,400 BTC flowed from exchanges to cold wallets. He believes that the transfer of chips during this round of decline has basically been completed.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a significant inflow into exchanges, while stablecoin liquidity continues to flow out. The deterioration on both the supply and demand sides of the market is considered a key reason for Bitcoin's approximately 22% decline from its May peak.Data shows that the 30-day net exchange flow indicator for Bitcoin has turned significantly positive, currently at about +114,000 BTC. Compared to the net outflow status of about -85,000 to -115,000 BTC in early May, the market has shifted from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase. This indicator briefly rose to about +167,000 BTC in early June, indicating that more holders are transferring BTC to exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.Meanwhile, the 30-day moving average net flow of stablecoins remains in negative territory, currently at about -105 million USD. In early May, this indicator was still in the range of +40 million to +90 million USD, representing strong buying liquidity in the market; however, it turned negative after mid-May and expanded to about -150 million to -170 million USD in early June, indicating that stablecoin funds are leaving exchanges, reducing the market's "ammunition."

CryptoQuant released the latest report indicating that Bitcoin has fallen to a new low of $59,000 in this bear market, currently only 9% higher than the realized price of $53,600, and from a valuation perspective, it is close to the bottom range of previous bear markets. However, CryptoQuant pointed out that the current bottom has not yet been confirmed. Last week, total Bitcoin demand dropped to negative 652,000 BTC, marking the largest contraction since January 2022; the one-year apparent spot demand growth rate also turned negative, falling to its weakest level since February 2024.Meanwhile, ETF purchase demand experienced the fastest contraction since its launch in January 2024, with the 30-day ETF demand growth rate hitting a historical low. The report also stated that realized losses in the past 30 days amounted to 187,000 BTC, which has not yet reached the level of historic sell-off clearance.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost's post on the X platform, the open interest in Ethereum perpetual contracts on Binance (measured in ETH) has reached an all-time high, nearing 3.7 million ETH. At the same time, Binance's share of the total open interest in Ethereum has risen to over 44%. This data comes after ETH's current price has dropped about 67% from its historical peak and entered an extremely oversold area.Darkfost stated that despite the rising market uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran and the continued deterioration of the economic outlook, some traders are choosing to increase their risk exposure in the derivatives market. The average active buyer/seller ratio on Binance has risen from 0.95 to 1, indicating that after months of seller dominance, the flow of funds is rebalancing, and more investors are willing to take on risk to rebuild long positions.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's realized market cap 30-day change rate has dropped to -1.1%, marking the first time since mid-March that capital outflow has reached this level. From a peak of approximately $1.087 trillion in mid-May, the realized market cap has decreased by about $12 billion to $1.075 trillion. The contraction rate has noticeably accelerated: on June 1, this metric was -0.15%, and by June 8, it had fallen to -1.1%. During the same period, the BTC price dropped from $82,000 to $63,000, a decline of 23%. The current outflow rate is now comparable to the beginning of the capitulation in March, when this metric reached -2.4%, indicating there is still room for deterioration.The aSOPR 30-day moving average has been below 1 for 13 consecutive days since it fell below 1 on May 28, currently at 0.987, indicating an average loss of about 1.3% per transaction. The long-term aSOPR below 1 is a classic sign of weak hands being flushed out, with sellers still dominating until it rises back to 1. The combination of these two indicators defines the capitulation phase: capital is flowing out of the network, driven by loss sales.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan pointed out that the Bitcoin MVRV is currently 1.1, which is close to the historically significant undervaluation range marking major market bottoms.If the price further dips to the low of $50,000, the MVRV may reach the fully undervalued level of 1. Historical data shows that this level appeared at the bottoms of bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022, and each time became the starting point for a strong medium to long-term rebound.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that Bitcoin is once again testing a low point of around $62,000, while the current 7-day net realized losses have reached approximately $7 billion, higher than the levels during the low point in February this year, but still below the peak loss of about $14 billion during the winter market panic.Currently, the Bitcoin price has clearly fallen below the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) at around $76,000. If it continues to decline, the main support left is the average realized price across the network at about $54,000, as well as the cost basis of long-term holders (LTH) at around $49,000. These two areas corresponded to the full capitulation phase and the formation of the cycle bottom in historical cycles.However, as long as Bitcoin remains above $54,000, the market will not enter a full capitulation phase; if it falls below and continues to operate below the market low point from February this year, it may further test the final defense line near $54,000 in this round.

Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, posted on social media that the price of Bitcoin is the same now as it was two years ago, but one thing has changed. The "6 months to 2 years" holding group that entered during this cycle currently accounts for 53% of the realized market cap, while two years ago this proportion was only 15%. In the previous cycle, when this proportion reached 68%, Bitcoin bottomed out. Currently, short-term holders are gradually evolving into long-term holders.

CryproQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on social media, "Once profit-taking begins to form a chain reaction, Bitcoin investors' profit and loss levels (PnL) typically continue to decline for about 18 months. Since this trend reversed in October 2025, the current bear market may last until early 2027.The trend will only truly reverse when unrealized profits start to rise again and realized profits begin to decline. However, at present, we have not seen this situation occur."

According to The Block, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated that the accumulation of Bitcoin whales (wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins, excluding exchanges and mining pools) and dolphins (wallets holding 100 to 1,000 Bitcoins, primarily dominated by ETFs and corporate treasury companies) has stagnated, with demand continuing to weaken. The year-on-year contraction rate of whale balances is the fastest this year, while the annual growth rate of dolphin balances, although still positive, has significantly slowed, and the monthly growth rates for both are approaching zero, indicating that the structural demand engine is in a state of ongoing slowdown.Although the supply of long-term holders has reached a record 15,800,000 Bitcoins, this is not a bullish signal, as short-term demand is too weak to absorb the tokens of long-term holders. The supply of short-term holders has decreased from 6,400,000 Bitcoins in December 2025 to about 4,200,000 Bitcoins, of which approximately 900,000 Bitcoins came from Coinbase exchange reserves that have been passively converted to long-term holdings due to holding periods exceeding 155 days. Moreno reiterated that the current market conditions are similar to the bear market pattern of March 2022.

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ pointed out that Bitcoin's recent price trend has shown a dangerous divergence: the Taker buy volume on Binance has continued to decline, reaching a low not seen in months, indicating a significant weakening of the market's willingness to buy actively; meanwhile, the funding rate on Binance has risen back into positive territory, suggesting that traders are increasing their long positions through leverage.Historical patterns show that when the funding rate rises while spot demand simultaneously shrinks, it often signals that the market is entering a later stage of speculation—leverage-driven trends lack support from spot capital, making them structurally fragile. If buying pressure does not effectively rebound, the current high funding rate may reflect more potential risks rather than market strength.

According to on-chain data analysis platform CryptoQuant (@cryptoquant_com), Bitcoin spot demand has fallen to the most bearish level of the year, and the Bitcoin capital flow ratio has also dropped to a key area that historically marks each major market turning point. Although the short-term trend is bearish, such environments have historically created better positioning opportunities for long-term investors.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum amid a sharp deterioration in the macro environment, which is an important signal indicating that the market is currently more in a "Risk-off" phase. Until its on-chain "Impulse" indicator returns above the zero axis, every rebound of BTC still lacks confirmation.He pointed out that the recently released fourth part of "Decision Architecture for Bitcoin" focuses on building a macro framework based on the Dollar Index (DXY), 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and VIX volatility index. The core idea is that not all macro fluctuations will disrupt on-chain structure, but when macro factors truly enter a "dominant mode," even if on-chain data is positive, the market may temporarily lose upward momentum.In addition, CryptoQuant has added a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF dashboard this week, covering data such as weekly net inflows, cumulative flow, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, changes in demand over the past four weeks, and fund distribution among various ETFs. Currently, the 30-day ETF momentum is only $362.8 million, while this indicator reached a peak of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and fell to a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025.Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains an important indicator for observing U.S. spot demand: when this index consistently stays above zero, it indicates that U.S. buying is still supporting the market; if it turns negative, even if BTC rises, its movement may lack genuine support from U.S. demand.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that since October 10 of last year, the Bitcoin derivatives market has undergone an 8-month deleveraging process, with Binance futures positions once falling below the 180-day moving average.However, this trend began to change in early May. Binance Open Interest rebounded from $6.4 billion in March to approximately $8.96 billion currently, re-establishing itself above the 180-day moving average (around $8.75 billion), marking the basic end of the deleveraging phase.Darkfost pointed out that traders re-entering the market have provided support for the current rebound, but the macro environment remains severe, and the trend is still relatively weak.