supply

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that currently, all chips bought in BTC in 2025 are basically in a state of loss. Therefore, apart from wallet migrations, the reduction in the scale of 2025 chips likely means that holders are cutting losses and selling. Data shows that as of now, approximately 4.77 million BTC chips bought in 2025 remain, a decrease of 41.5% from the peak in December last year.From the downward trend, this group has experienced two phases: a rapid decrease in chips before February this year, and a significant slowdown in the rate of decline after February, although it still maintains a certain slope. Murphy believes that the 2025 chips may be the largest potential supply side in the current market scale. In contrast, the BTC chips formed in 2024, 2023, and 2022 have basically completed the release of high-level locked positions due to still having unrealized gains, and the slope of the curve is gradually flattening, indicating that the selling pressure from long-term holders is weakening.Historical data shows that during the bottom phases of the past two bear markets, high-level chips have shown a significant decline: at the bottom of the bear market in 2022, the chips bought at high levels in 2021 decreased by about 51%; at the bottom of the bear market in 2018, the chips bought at high levels in 2017 decreased by about 62%. If we refer to historical cycles, Murphy believes that in this bear market bottom phase, the reduction of high-level chips in 2025 may be in the range of 50%-60%, and the current decline of 41.5% indicates that there is still some room for release. However, this judgment has not yet considered the BTC bought by institutional investors such as spot ETFs and MicroStrategy, as this portion of chips is mostly in a long-term locked state, which may reduce the actual market supply pressure.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Hyperliquid has burned 19,750 HYPE in the past 24 hours, worth 1.13 million USD; during the same period, the protocol generated 1.6 million USD in fees.Hyperliquid has cumulatively burned 47.67 million HYPE, worth 2.75 billion USD, accounting for 4.77% of the maximum supply of 1 billion coins.

The on-chain data visualization analysis platform Bubblemaps has issued a warning that the Meme coin XST, which is being heavily promoted on TikTok, has a high risk of supply concentration—74% of its total supply is controlled by a small group, exhibiting typical Rug token characteristics. The current market value of this token is approximately 70 million USD.Bubblemaps urges investors to stay away from such projects and to ignore similar content if seen on TikTok's recommendation page.In recent years, TikTok has become an important distribution channel for low-quality Meme coins, creating an illusion of credibility through AI-generated celebrity videos and false associations, combined with the token's concentrated holding structure, resulting in typical high-risk Rug tokens after the hype fades.

According to Gate market data, oil prices fell slightly after rising for five consecutive trading days, with WTI crude oil dropping below $82 per barrel and Brent crude oil briefly falling below $87. Traders are awaiting progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency stated that the global oil market faces a supply gap of 1.8 million barrels per day this quarter, more than double the previous forecast. Gasoline and diesel prices in the United States have reached new highs for this time of year.

The IEA monthly report predicts that due to the resurgence of hostilities in the Middle East, the oil market will experience a supply gap of 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter, a significant increase from the 800,000 barrels per day gap forecasted in July.

According to Arkham monitoring, Bitmine staked $289.4 million ETH in the past week and currently holds 4.2% of the Ethereum supply as staked ETH.In the past week, Bitmine also purchased $14.25 million ETH, totaling 4.8% of the total Ethereum supply.

Data shows that the amount of Ethereum (ETH) staked has risen to a historic high, with approximately 41.7 million ETH currently in a staked state, accounting for about one-third of the total supply of Ethereum.Meanwhile, the price of ETH has performed weakly, falling from around $3,400 in January this year to about $1,900, but the scale of staking continues to grow. Market analysts believe that as the amount of Ethereum staked increases, the staking reward mechanism will not stop generating returns, with validators continuously receiving rewards and reinvesting part of their earnings into staking, further driving the expansion of staked ETH.The staking ratio of ETH continues to rise, indicating that the confidence of long-term holders and institutions in the security of the Ethereum network and the future development of its ecosystem is still strengthening, but a large amount of ETH entering a staked state may also affect market liquidity.

Analyst Murphy stated that the BTC supply concentration has risen to 14.8%, approaching the high-risk zone of 15%. The risk here refers to volatility rather than the direction of price changes; the supply concentration itself does not indicate direction.Murphy noted that based on historical data, a pattern has been observed: when the supply concentration curve begins to turn downward, if the BTC price has been rising beforehand, the probability of continuing to rise afterward is greater; conversely, if it has been falling, the probability of continuing to fall is greater. However, the supply concentration is still on the rise and has not yet turned, so it is currently impossible to determine which direction the probability of movement will be greater after the turn. What can be confirmed is that risk is accumulating and volatility is brewing.

Driven by strong demand for AI, the MLCC market has seen a surge in price chasing and material grabbing. Industry sources indicate that some customers are willing to pay two to three times the price to secure supplies from major manufacturers like Yageo and Murata, creating a situation where the highest bidder wins. Yageo has admitted that AI-related customers are increasingly looking to lock in capacity in advance to reduce supply risks. Currently, major MLCC manufacturers are fully booked, with capacity nearing full load, and delivery times have extended to 12 to 16 months.In terms of capacity, Yageo expects the utilization rate for standard products this quarter to increase from about 80% in Q2 to over 90%, while special products will maintain a high level above 90%, overall trending towards full capacity. The company is also expanding production, with new capacity set to come online each quarter. Japanese manufacturers are also optimistic, with Murata significantly raising its annual profit forecast, and Taiyo Yuden stating that demand for AI servers has exceeded expectations. Industry insiders point out that large customers typically have a higher priority for capacity allocation, while small and medium-sized customers can only compete for limited supplies by offering higher prices. Yageo has noted that more and more customers wish to secure passive component supplies for the next six months to several years through long-term contracts to mitigate supply chain risks.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin (@EmberCN), the token Tutorial (TUT) has recently experienced significant volatility, with its price rising from $0.045 to $0.305 in the past 24 hours, marking an increase of nearly 6 times. During the same period, the total spot trading volume across the network was approximately $570 million, while the contract trading volume was around $2.5 billion.On-chain data shows that recent major transfer activities of TUT have been concentrated among market makers or large holding addresses reallocating between various centralized trading platforms, particularly characterized by transfers from Binance to Bitget. In the past day, approximately 160 million TUT has flowed into Bitget, accounting for 20% of the total token supply.

Galaxy Research stated that Ethereum and Solana are re-evaluating their token issuance mechanisms, with the core issue being how to balance the token budget required for network security with long-term supply pressure. Adjusting the inflation rate may have an impact.

According to the South Korean media The Elec, GlobalWafers stated during the Q2 earnings call that the production lines for 12-inch, 8-inch, and 6-inch wafers are nearing full capacity, with some advanced 12-inch products experiencing supply constraints due to a surge in demand for AI chips, HBM, and advanced packaging. Shin-Etsu Chemical achieved double-digit growth in 12-inch shipments both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter in Q2, and Sungrow also believes that customer inventory adjustments are nearing completion. Although SK Siltron is gradually releasing capacity from new production lines, it is still difficult to meet the growth rate of orders.Tight supply is driving changes in long-term contract models, and GlobalWafers signed a 10-year LTA (including advance payment) with Micron last month. Prices in the non-LTA market have begun to rise and are expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year. GlobalWafers stated that it is negotiating with customers to incorporate price adjustment mechanisms into new contracts, and Nexchip also emphasized the need for "broad and meaningful price increases" to support reinvestment. Industry insiders expect that as new factories from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron come online, wafer demand will double in the second half of 2027, and supply shortages may further intensify.

According to Jinshi reports, the latest 24-hour situation tracking of the Russia-Ukraine conflict shows that Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the supply of Ukraine's air defense systems has decreased by two-thirds compared to last year. In the Kyiv region, 16 people have died, and the number of injured has risen to 36.The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have damaged three ships near Odessa and disrupted logistics hubs in Kyiv and its surrounding areas. In addition, French President Macron and European Commission President von der Leyen both stated that they would continue to increase pressure on Russia, with the latter also mentioning that an additional 1.4 billion euros would be allocated to Ukraine from the profits of frozen Russian assets.

According to exclusive reports from the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, Moonshot AI's G round (Pre-IPO) financing has officially started, with this round's valuation reaching $50 billion. Insiders revealed that the financing amount became "suddenly tight" after the release of the K3 model, and multiple institutions have registered their investment intentions. Participants must complete their payments by August 15, and if they want to directly enter the shareholder register, their management scale must exceed $500 million. The company's previous F round financing (valuation of $35 billion) was just completed last week, raising a total of $3.5 billion. In April of this year, the company's valuation was approximately $18 billion, nearly tripling within three months.Sources say that the core driver behind this round's valuation surge is the release of the K3 model. On July 27, Moonshot AI officially open-sourced the complete model weights of Kimi K3, becoming the world's first large model with 30 trillion parameters to be implemented. Currently, the company's API revenue accounts for more than 70% of total revenue, with ARR achieving several times growth after the K3 release. In response to recent reports stating "the IPO application will be submitted to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as early as this month," insiders stated that "the information is inaccurate, and the G round financing is still ongoing." As of the time of publication, Moonshot AI has not responded to this news.

According to Slow Fog monitoring, MistEye detected a large-scale npm supply chain attack affecting the Keyv/Cacheable ecosystem. The attackers published over 2,000 malicious package versions, including keyv@6.0. Keyv is a widely used key-value storage abstraction library that supports backends such as Redis, SQLite, PostgreSQL, and MongoDB, with approximately 127 million downloads per week, leading to significant downstream supply chain exposure.The attack method is highly similar to the previous Shai-Hulud npm worm activity, indicating a highly automated and scalable supply chain attack. Potential attack behaviors include credential theft, environment variable leakage, CI/CD key leakage, remote payload delivery, and lateral propagation through compromised development environments. Security teams should immediately identify and remove affected package versions, upgrade to verified secure versions, review dependency lock files and build logs, monitor suspicious external connections, rotate leaked credentials, and rebuild environments upon confirmation of the impact.

The Solana community is advancing two governance proposals aimed at reducing the new issuance of SOL and increasing the scale of network fee burns, thereby tightening the token supply. Among them, governance proposal SIMD-0553 suggests introducing a resource consumption-based transaction fee mechanism, charging fees based on the network resources consumed by transactions. It is expected to increase the daily burn of SOL from the current approximately 650 coins (about $47,000) to between 7,500 and 9,000 coins (about $650,000).Another proposal, SIMD-0550, plans to double the rate of decline in SOL's annual inflation, bringing the minimum inflation target of 1.5% forward to 2029 instead of the originally planned 2032. This plan is expected to reduce the issuance of approximately 18.9 million SOL over the next six years, valued at about $1.36 billion at current prices. Currently, both proposals have received support from some validator nodes. As of the latest data, approximately 24.94 million SOL have participated in signaling votes, accounting for 5.8% of the 4.3265 million staked SOL, still about 39.95 million SOL short of the 15% threshold required to enter the formal voting phase. The deadline for supporting signals is August 18.A total of 16 validator nodes have expressed support, with the infrastructure company Helius contributing approximately 16.03 million SOL, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the current support. However, even if SIMD-0553 is successfully implemented, SOL will not immediately enter a deflationary state. Based on a maximum daily burn of 9,000 coins, it is still lower than the current daily new issuance of about 60,000 coins. Therefore, the community is advancing the burn mechanism and the reduction of issuance as linked reforms. If the proposal receives sufficient support from validator nodes, the Solana network will improve its long-term token economic model through a dual mechanism of "reducing new supply + increasing burns."

According to AMBCrypto, the total amount of Ethereum staked has risen to a historical high of 41.4 million ETH, accounting for 34% of the total supply, with over 1.4 million ETH staked in just the past week.BitMine, owned by Tom Lee, has staked another 150,100 ETH (approximately $278 million), bringing its total staked amount to 5.07 million ETH (approximately $9.38 billion), which accounts for 87.4% of its ETH holdings; additionally, a whale address has cumulatively withdrawn and staked 112,000 ETH (over $208 million) in the past three weeks.Meanwhile, the market capitalization of stablecoins has declined by 1.6% this quarter, marking the worst quarterly performance in history, with over $6 billion in liquidity flowing out of the crypto market. The average daily spot trading volume across the market has dropped nearly 70% from the January peak to about $15 billion.

According to The Block, Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered the Public Utility Commission (PUCT) and the grid operator ERCOT to conduct audits on all data center projects in the queue within the state this week. ERCOT subsequently suspended the "Batch Zero" large electricity approval process, which was scheduled to announce results this month.Currently, data center applications account for about 90% of the 474 GW interconnected queue of ERCOT.Bernstein analysts noted in a client report released on Tuesday that this regulatory review will suppress speculative development and compress the supply of new electricity capacity, thereby enhancing the scarcity value of approved electricity capacity, benefiting existing Bitcoin mining companies and AI operators.The report specifically mentioned that Cipher Digital (CIFR), CleanSpark (CLSK), and Core Scientific (CORZ) are significantly affected by the audit, as their recent expansion plans rely on access to the Texas grid; while Terawulf (WULF) has a stronger risk resistance due to its power assets being distributed across multiple states, including Kentucky, Maryland, and New York; Riot Platforms (RIOT) and IREN benefit from already having large-scale approved operating assets in ERCOT.

According to the latest research by TrendForce, the tight supply of DRAM is expected to continue until 2027, and the uncertainty of the HBM4e verification schedule is prompting AI chip manufacturers to consider reducing the HBM configuration of their next-generation products. Starting from Q3 2026, NVIDIA has begun evaluating the HBM solution for Rubin Ultra, expanding from the original 12-Hi HBM4e to alternative options such as 8-Hi HBM4e, 12-Hi HBM4, and 8-Hi HBM4, with the final specifications yet to be determined. Previously, due to the expected supply bottleneck of LPDDR5X lasting until 2027, NVIDIA decided to halve the SOCAMM capacity of the next-generation Vera Rubin Superchip module.TrendForce pointed out that the main reasons for the downgrade of Rubin Ultra from 12-Hi HBM4e include: the overall DRAM shortage in 2027 will limit the allocation of wafer capacity to HBM, and there is still uncertainty regarding the mass production schedule and yield ramp-up of 12-Hi HBM4e. It is expected that the HBM bit shipment volume in 2027 will increase by approximately 50-60% year-on-year, which will still be insufficient to meet the growth in demand. HBM suppliers will maintain pricing power throughout 2027, and HBM prices are expected to rise significantly. The final configuration will depend on the wafer allocation decisions of memory suppliers.

According to Jinshi reports, the CEO of Saudi Aramco warned that geopolitical crises are intensifying, and unprecedented supply shocks are occurring.