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LINK $10.08 -4.14%
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russia

Next week's macro outlook: Important window for peace talks may open between the US and Iran, and Russia and Ukraine; Waller officially takes over as Chairman of the Federal Reserve

According to Jinshi reports, this week, significant signs of peace have emerged in the US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, greatly easing geopolitical risks. Next week, it is worth paying close attention to whether these two geopolitical conflicts can further cool down. In addition, next week's macro events will focus on the US April CPI data, as detailed below:Tuesday 15:15, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion on monetary policy;Tuesday 20:15, US ADP employment change for the week ending April 25;Tuesday 20:30, US April CPI data;Wednesday 04:30, US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 8;Wednesday 20:30, US April PPI year-on-year and month-on-month;Friday 05:30, Fed Governor Barr will deliver a speech;Friday 21:15, US April industrial production month-on-month.Finally, next week the Federal Reserve will undergo significant personnel changes. Nominee Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to be confirmed by the Senate on Monday and will officially take over from Powell on May 15.In terms of US stocks, as of this Friday, a new round of surges has pushed the S&P 500 index up 8% cumulatively in 2026, continuing to rise on the basis of achieving double-digit returns for three consecutive years. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has risen nearly 13% year-to-date, with both major indices reaching all-time highs. Although the first quarter earnings season is nearing its end, corporate reports will still be a key driver of stock prices in the coming days.AI

The State Duma of Russia has passed the digital currency bill on its first reading, granting the central bank control over market access and transaction regulation

The State Duma of Russia (the lower house of parliament) has passed the "Digital Currency and Digital Rights Bill" in the first reading, marking a key step towards the legalization of cryptocurrency assets in the country.According to the bill, the Bank of Russia will become the core regulatory body for the cryptocurrency market, responsible for issuing licenses, approving or prohibiting related transactions, and defining the legality of transactions. The bill proposes to classify cryptocurrencies as "property," but explicitly prohibits their use as a means of payment domestically, with the ruble remaining the only legal tender. However, in the context of Western sanctions, cryptocurrency assets can be used for cross-border trade settlements, including service payments, intellectual property transfers, and other scenarios.In addition, the bill allows Russian residents to legally invest in cryptocurrency assets through licensed institutions, but will implement a tiered investor system, setting testing and annual investment limits for ordinary investors (with a suggested cap of 300,000 rubles). Initially, only high-market-cap mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum will be allowed for trading, with a whitelist established by the central bank. The bill is expected to be formally passed and come into effect by July 2026 at the latest. However, some lawmakers and banking industry figures have criticized the overly strict regulations, which may affect market activity and even lead to funds remaining in the gray market. At the same time, accompanying legislation is also proposed to introduce criminal penalties, with a maximum sentence of 7 years in prison for illegal cryptocurrency trading.

The Polish Prime Minister claims that cryptocurrency companies are involved with Russian gangs and intelligence networks and are funding political opponents, sparking regulatory controversy

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that a cryptocurrency company linked to "Russian gangs and intelligence agencies" is funding political opponents and influencing domestic cryptocurrency regulatory legislation.During a parliamentary vote on Friday, Tusk pointed out that some Polish politicians obstructing cryptocurrency regulatory legislation are serving the interests of a company named Zondacrypto, which is accused of providing "financial support" to political figures and has ties to Russia. Tusk further claimed that the company sponsored the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) event held in Poland last year, during which former U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem publicly supported President Karol Nawrocki's campaign. Tusk bluntly stated that the company's funding sources involve not only "money related to the Russian mafia (Bratva)" but may also be connected to Russian intelligence agencies.Meanwhile, President Nawrocki won the election in June last year, with support from former U.S. President Donald Trump. The president's office responded that it does not oppose cryptocurrency regulation itself but opposes the "flawed regulatory model" proposed by the government. This controversy arises amid the political tug-of-war in Poland over the cryptocurrency regulatory bill. The bill aims to align with the EU's MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation) framework, but the president previously vetoed the related bill and blocked parliament from overturning the veto in December, hindering the regulatory process.
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