pce

Next week's macro data focus will be on Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report, including non-farm employment population, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage, which are directly related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and are important employment data ahead of the October monetary policy meeting. According to Beijing time, on Wednesday at 20:15, the U.S. September ADP employment figures will be released, and at 20:30, the U.S. August core PCE price index year-on-year will be announced; on Thursday at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 26 will be released, and on Friday at 20:30, the U.S. September seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population and unemployment rate will be published.Regarding officials' speeches, on Thursday at 16:00, Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak, and at 21:30, European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak. Starting from early Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials will have a series of public activities; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, along with 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, will speak in succession, and FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a keynote speech at the University at Buffalo. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Cook, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak in turn, and on Friday, Williams and Dallas Fed President Logan will still have public activities. In terms of U.S. stocks, Micron will release its earnings report after the market on Wednesday, and Nike will announce its latest quarterly earnings report on Thursday, with both companies corresponding to storage chips and consumer demand.

The Federal Reserve FOMC economic projections show that the median core PCE inflation expectations for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 3.4%, 2.5%, and 2.2%, respectively, compared to the June expectations of 3.3%, 2.5%, and 2.1%.

The Federal Reserve FOMC economic projections show that the median PCE inflation expectations for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 3.7%, 2.3%, and 2.1%, respectively, which is a slight adjustment compared to the June expectations of 3.6%, 2.3%, and 2%.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, both in line with expectations.Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, stated: "The mild upside surprise in today's inflation data, along with relatively strong economic performance, is not something that investors or the Federal Reserve would welcome. However, this set of data is not sufficient to shift the decision-making balance for the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting."

The U.S. July PCE price index month-on-month was 0.2%, higher than the expected 0.1%, and the previous value was -0.1%.

The U.S. July core PCE price index year-on-year is 3.3%, expected 3.30%, previous value 3.30%.

The annual PCE price index for the U.S. in July was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and unchanged from the previous value.

At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The market expects the overall PCE in July to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, with the year-on-year increase falling from 3.7% in June to 3.6%; the core PCE is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2% month-on-month, while year-on-year it remains at 3.3%, marking the 65th consecutive month above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.It is noteworthy that rising prices in the AI industry chain, high valuations in the stock market pushing up portfolio management fees, and the situation in the Middle East leading to increased energy costs may all become potential drivers of core inflation. Goldman Sachs predicts that stock market valuation factors alone could contribute approximately 0.11 percentage points to the month-on-month increase in core PCE for July.What draws more market attention is that the Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to comprehensively adjust the PCE statistical methods by the end of September, which may involve adjustments to the price calculations for categories such as computer hardware, stock portfolio management, and legal services, and may also retroactively revise historical data, increasing the difficulty of interpreting inflation data.Currently, the market's views on the Federal Reserve's policy path in September are increasingly divided. CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has risen to 40.1%. The market is also waiting for this week's Jackson Hole annual meeting to seek the latest signals from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and subsequent interest rate policies.

According to Jinshi, the core PCE price index in the United States for June was 0.1%, lower than the market expectation of 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.3%.

According to Jinshi reports, the annualized quarterly core PCE price index for the second quarter in the United States is 3.4%, lower than the market expectation of 3.5%, and the previous value was 4.4%.

According to Jinshi, the annual rate of the U.S. June PCE price index is 3.7%, in line with market expectations, and the previous value was 4.1%.

According to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs' latest research report shows that inflationary pressures in the United States are spreading from a few industries to a broader range of sectors. Although the current inflation level has not yet reached the peak of 2022, the coverage of rising prices is expanding, posing greater challenges for Federal Reserve policy. Goldman Sachs economist Jessica Rindels analyzed the degree of inflation diffusion based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve focuses on, using a six-month annualized change rate.The data shows that compared to the average inflation level from 1990 to 2019, the pressure index for inflation categories exceeding 3% has reached about "6," while this index was "10" at the peak of inflation in 2022.The report points out that areas such as audio-visual equipment, financial services, healthcare, and transportation have become significant sources of current price increases. Meanwhile, housing rent inflation, which has a high weight in the PCE, is expected to fall below 3% in the fourth quarter of this year, potentially becoming an important factor in alleviating inflationary pressures.Goldman Sachs' analysis resonates with the recent concerns of new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh regarding the "diffusion" of inflation. Warsh stated that preventing price increases from spreading to more sectors of the economy is an important task for the Federal Reserve. However, unlike the more explicit policy communication style of former Chairman Powell, Warsh currently refuses to provide specific guidance on interest rate paths.Jeremy Schwartz, a senior U.S. economist at Nomura Securities, stated that the Federal Reserve is reducing its forward guidance to the market, and this policy uncertainty has increased concerns on Wall Street. Meanwhile, hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve are rising. Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan has expressed support for moderate interest rate hikes, believing that the current economic resilience does not match the inflation risks.

According to Jinshi reports, Bank of America Securities analysts stated in a report that the overall CPI in the United States may decrease by 0.09% month-on-month in June, partly due to a significant drop in gasoline prices. However, the core inflation rate is expected to remain high at 0.28% month-on-month or 2.9% year-on-year, partly because demand related to the World Cup is pushing up inflation in the service sector.Based on this forecast, analysts expect core PCE to be slightly stronger than CPI again.

According to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs stated that the combined effect of rising prices for memory, software, and electricity brought about by artificial intelligence is contributing more than 0.2 percentage points to the year-on-year inflation of the U.S. core PCE, and this contribution is expected to rise to 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year.

According to Jinshi reports, after the US PCE data showed moderate performance, US Treasury bonds erased most of their declines.

According to Jinshi, the annual core PCE price index in the United States for May recorded 3.4%, meeting market expectations, marking a new high since October 2023.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has repeatedly found support around $59,000 in June, a position that has replaced $60,000 as a more critical technical support level. On Wednesday, as the decline accelerated, the price briefly approached $59,000 before rebounding to $61,000, a similar trend that occurred on June 5, when the price rebounded to $67,000 after stopping the decline near $59,000.The Federal Reserve's most closely watched PCE data will be released on Thursday evening, with core PCE expected to rise year-on-year by 3.3%-3.4%, the highest since October 2023. If the data exceeds expectations, it will confirm that the rise in inflation is not a temporary phenomenon, potentially strengthening interest rate hike expectations and pushing the dollar index further up, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies; if it falls short of expectations, it may alleviate concerns about interest rate hikes, providing support for Bitcoin's rebound from $59,000.