pce

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that as the shocks fade, core PCE is expected to be closer to 2% next year.

The annual rate of the PCE price index in the United States for September is 3.6%, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 3.4%.

The U.S. September PCE data and the preliminary GDP for the third quarter will be released tonight at 20:30. The stickiness of inflation and the slowdown in economic growth will be key factors for the market to assess the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. If the data significantly deviates from expectations, it may trigger fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and U.S. stocks.

In August, the core PCE price index in the United States had a year-on-year rate of 3%, lower than the expected 3.3%, with the previous value revised from 3.3% to 3%.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond once surged to 5.29%, reaching a new high in 19 years. New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that he is "not in a hurry," cooling expectations for an interest rate hike in October. Saxo Bank pointed out that the yield has retreated, but tonight's U.S. PCE data will determine the next steps for the dollar and U.S. Treasuries.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast titled "PCE Revealed Tonight: Bull Market Rotation or Final Frenzy?" on September 30 at 20:00 (UTC+8). At that time, crypto KOLs 0xPink, Xiao Hai, HiSeven, and Xiao Zhi will discuss the continuously rising U.S. Treasury yields and the strong performance of altcoin markets, along with the upcoming August PCE data, to forecast the future trends of Bitcoin and altcoins.

Next week's macro data focus will be on Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report, including non-farm employment population, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage, which are directly related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and are important employment data ahead of the October monetary policy meeting. According to Beijing time, on Wednesday at 20:15, the U.S. September ADP employment figures will be released, and at 20:30, the U.S. August core PCE price index year-on-year will be announced; on Thursday at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 26 will be released, and on Friday at 20:30, the U.S. September seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population and unemployment rate will be published.Regarding officials' speeches, on Thursday at 16:00, Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak, and at 21:30, European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak. Starting from early Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials will have a series of public activities; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, along with 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, will speak in succession, and FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a keynote speech at the University at Buffalo. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Cook, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak in turn, and on Friday, Williams and Dallas Fed President Logan will still have public activities. In terms of U.S. stocks, Micron will release its earnings report after the market on Wednesday, and Nike will announce its latest quarterly earnings report on Thursday, with both companies corresponding to storage chips and consumer demand.

The Federal Reserve FOMC economic projections show that the median core PCE inflation expectations for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 3.4%, 2.5%, and 2.2%, respectively, compared to the June expectations of 3.3%, 2.5%, and 2.1%.

The Federal Reserve FOMC economic projections show that the median PCE inflation expectations for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 3.7%, 2.3%, and 2.1%, respectively, which is a slight adjustment compared to the June expectations of 3.6%, 2.3%, and 2%.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, both in line with expectations.Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, stated: "The mild upside surprise in today's inflation data, along with relatively strong economic performance, is not something that investors or the Federal Reserve would welcome. However, this set of data is not sufficient to shift the decision-making balance for the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting."

The U.S. July PCE price index month-on-month was 0.2%, higher than the expected 0.1%, and the previous value was -0.1%.

The U.S. July core PCE price index year-on-year is 3.3%, expected 3.30%, previous value 3.30%.

The annual PCE price index for the U.S. in July was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and unchanged from the previous value.

At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The market expects the overall PCE in July to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, with the year-on-year increase falling from 3.7% in June to 3.6%; the core PCE is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2% month-on-month, while year-on-year it remains at 3.3%, marking the 65th consecutive month above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.It is noteworthy that rising prices in the AI industry chain, high valuations in the stock market pushing up portfolio management fees, and the situation in the Middle East leading to increased energy costs may all become potential drivers of core inflation. Goldman Sachs predicts that stock market valuation factors alone could contribute approximately 0.11 percentage points to the month-on-month increase in core PCE for July.What draws more market attention is that the Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to comprehensively adjust the PCE statistical methods by the end of September, which may involve adjustments to the price calculations for categories such as computer hardware, stock portfolio management, and legal services, and may also retroactively revise historical data, increasing the difficulty of interpreting inflation data.Currently, the market's views on the Federal Reserve's policy path in September are increasingly divided. CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has risen to 40.1%. The market is also waiting for this week's Jackson Hole annual meeting to seek the latest signals from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and subsequent interest rate policies.

According to Jinshi, the core PCE price index in the United States for June was 0.1%, lower than the market expectation of 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.3%.

According to Jinshi reports, the annualized quarterly core PCE price index for the second quarter in the United States is 3.4%, lower than the market expectation of 3.5%, and the previous value was 4.4%.