interest

According to Coinglass data, the total contract open interest for BTC has decreased by 5.26% in the past 24 hours, with the current total open interest at 58.659 billion USD. Among them, Binance's open interest is 10.739 billion USD, OKX's open interest is 3.377 billion USD, Bybit's open interest is 4.912 billion USD, and Gate's open interest is 4.553 billion USD.

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that in the context of rising inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve may maintain a high interest rate policy for a long time, which will have three core impacts on the cryptocurrency market. He believes that as the U.S. CPI approaches 4%, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has almost no room for interest rate cuts, and the market currently expects the first rate cut to be delayed until September 2027. Grayscale pointed out that long-term high interest rates will put pressure on "currency devaluation trades" such as Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin, like gold, is a non-yielding asset, higher real interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding dollar-denominated assets. However, it remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects and believes that regulatory benefits such as the CLARITY Act can partially offset the related pressures. In addition, it believes that a high interest rate environment will accelerate the tokenization of fixed income assets. Currently, the yields on dollar-denominated fixed income products are higher than those of most DeFi yields; for example, the USDC lending rate on Aave is about 3.6%, while the yield on short-term corporate bonds is about 4.5%. Grayscale also stated that stablecoin issuers will benefit from high interest rates. Since the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoins from paying interest to users, issuers can retain the income from reserve assets. It estimates that for every 25 basis point increase in short-term rates, Circle's revenue will increase by approximately $190 million.

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. interest rate futures indicate that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by January next year exceeds 50%.

According to Jinshi, Tim Graf, Managing Director and Head of EMEA Macro Strategy at State Street, stated that global stock markets have continued to rise over the past few days, but the momentum is currently showing signs of fatigue. He pointed out that the stock market is still supported, and if there are factors that trigger a pullback, it may be the movements in the interest rate market and the expectation that inflation will remain above the target levels of many central banks, forcing central banks to tighten policies.

According to Gate market data, the dollar is heading towards its best week in two months, following U.S. data showing rising inflation pressures that may force the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate hikes within the next year. The dollar index DXY has risen more than 1% this week, expected to achieve its best single-week performance since mid-March. Due to two consecutive inflation data releases this week exceeding expectations, the U.S. Treasury market has been impacted, prompting a Federal Reserve official to state that the U.S. "is facing an inflation problem."

According to Jin Shi reports, Carol Kong, a foreign exchange strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, stated that the inflation data released this week will not be welcomed by FOMC officials, including the incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Waller. The U.S. Senate has approved Waller to serve as the Federal Reserve Chairman. Kong expects that the FOMC will have to enter a rate hike cycle starting in December this year, with three rate increases expected during this cycle.

According to BIT analysis, if Bitcoin could keep up with the Nasdaq's rise, the current price should be close to $140,000. The relative underperformance of Bitcoin may be related to the resurgence of inflation since the third quarter of 2025. Overall, Bitcoin had generally followed the fluctuations of the Nasdaq, but since October 2025, the divergence between the two has begun to widen significantly. At that time, the latest CPI reading had risen back to 3%, which is 100 basis points above the Federal Reserve's target, and the interest rate market also began to gradually retract some pricing for rate cuts in 2026. This is precisely the source of the pressure on Bitcoin; its upward logic relies on expectations of Federal Reserve easing, and once the market starts to retract pricing for rate cuts, performance often comes under pressure. Subsequently, this logic continued to influence Bitcoin's trend.Stocks, on the other hand, are completely different. As long as the market still views inflation as mild and temporary, a rise in inflation can actually be beneficial for stocks: even if sales do not increase significantly, it can boost nominal corporate income, reduce real debt burdens, and enhance the attractiveness of stocks as a hedge against purchasing power. The latest U.S. inflation data seems to have caught some market participants off guard, although the agency's model had previously indicated that price pressures might rise again. The current key question is whether this round of inflation expectation repricing will weaken the ongoing positive fundamentals for Bitcoin; and how investors should adjust their positions in this context.

According to Jinshi News, the CME "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 96.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 3.2%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 93.8%, with the probabilities of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points and a rate hike of 25 basis points both at 3.1%.

According to Jinshi News, strategists at TD Securities stated in a report that even if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in the future, the dollar may still weaken this year. They pointed out that in the context of the standoff between the U.S. and Iran and high oil prices, the expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026 has been removed, and instead, interest rates are expected to remain stable. The strategists emphasized that they still maintain the forecast path for a weaker dollar in 2026 and believe that even if the Federal Reserve shifts to raising rates in the future, the magnitude of its rate hikes may be lower than that of other major central banks. It is expected that once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the dollar index will continue to fall below the 98 mark.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 99%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1%. Similarly, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until July is also 99%, with a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points having a probability of 1%.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Collins stated that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to alleviate inflationary pressures.

According to Jinshi reports, ECB Governing Council member Kocher stated that the June meeting will make a decision between raising interest rates and maintaining the current rate.

According to Jinshi reports, UBS Global Wealth Management expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2026 and March 2027, whereas the previous forecast was for rate cuts in September and December of this year.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 97.1%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 2.9%. In addition, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 96%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 3.9%.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that he is optimistic about a significant decrease in interest rates, but progress needs to be made on inflation.

According to Jinshi reports, ECB board member Nagel stated that the possibility of the European Central Bank raising interest rates is continuously increasing.

James Comer, the chairman of the U.S. House Oversight Committee and a Republican lawmaker, has written to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, requesting information regarding potential conflicts of interest related to personal investments and OpenAI. The investigation focuses on Altman's extensive personal investment network. Since Altman does not hold equity in OpenAI, his estimated net worth of approximately $3.5 billion primarily comes from his personal investment portfolio, which includes companies like Helion, Stripe, and Reddit.According to a previous report by The Wall Street Journal, Altman had pushed for OpenAI to invest $500 million in the fusion company Helion, while Altman himself has invested at least $375 million in the company. Comer stated that this has raised concerns about whether Altman is using OpenAI to enhance the valuation of his personally held companies. Additionally, attorneys general from states such as Florida, Montana, Nebraska, Iowa, West Virginia, and Louisiana have also written to SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, requesting an investigation into whether Altman has engaged in "self-dealing" and serious conflicts of interest.Meanwhile, Altman is set to testify in court on Tuesday and Wednesday in the case where Musk is suing OpenAI. Musk accuses Altman and OpenAI co-founders of violating the original "non-profit" commitment by shifting OpenAI to a profit-making operation. Although the conflict of interest investigation and Musk's lawsuit are independent events, Altman's personal investment issues have been raised multiple times during the trial. OpenAI board chairman Bret Taylor defended Altman in court, stating that he has been "open and transparent" regarding personal investment matters.

In April, the CPI in the United States increased by 3.8% year-on-year, reaching a new high since May 2023, exceeding the market expectation of 3.7%. Previously, on May 8, Bank of America economists stated in a report to clients that due to inflationary pressures remaining above expectations and robust job growth, they have abandoned their earlier predictions of rate cuts in September and October this year, postponing the first rate cut to the second half of 2027.The previous view was based on the expectation that Trump would nominate Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, leading to a more accommodative policy. However, with changes in the economic situation, this view has shifted. The report mentioned, "We no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year." They also pointed out that multiple shock factors affecting the economy, including the war in Iran, tariffs, and the rise of artificial intelligence, have made predicting interest rate changes more difficult.