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Data: Bitcoin has entered the late-stage bear market compression phase, but the real demand signals have not yet appeared

Glassnode published a market perspective stating that Bitcoin is currently caught between the median realized price (around $63,000) and the cost basis of short-term holders (around $68,700). Spot trading volume has hit its lowest level since 2019, and the market is in an extremely quiet compression state. Despite core inflation falling to 2.5% in July and the stock market reaching new highs, Bitcoin has shown almost no reaction and even weakened, indicating a clear lack of demand.On the other hand, selling pressure is easing: profit supply is approaching the past bear market bottom area, the seller exhaustion indicator has hit a cycle low, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times. Meanwhile, buyers continue to be absent, with minimal net inflows into ETFs, and coins are still flowing into exchanges; however, derivatives leverage has already massively gone long, with open interest relative to trading volume being high, and the order book's buy side is also thinning. Glassnode believes that the key observation points are the upper level of $68,700 and the lower level of about $58,500: effectively standing above the former with accompanying volume and ETF inflows recovering may confirm improvement, while losing the latter could easily lead to accelerated declines under thin buy support and crowded longs. Glassnode remains cautious overall, believing this is the late-stage bear market compression phase, and real demand signals have yet to appear.

hot_img Micron: The value of memory in the system has increased from 10% to nearly 50%, and the demand for AI agents is in the "pre-season warm-up" stage

Micron Technology stated to Deutsche Bank at the FMS 2026 conference that AI is reshaping the memory industry landscape, with the proportion of memory in the total value of systems rising from about 10% thirty years ago to nearly 50% currently, and this trend is accelerating. Currently, both DRAM and NAND are in a state of supply shortage. Due to the need for physical disassembly of systems for memory upgrades, the demand for memory in AI systems is more rigid, and price elasticity is lower than market expectations. The Strategic Customer Agreement (SCA) is expected to cover about 40% of sales, providing a price stability mechanism for both parties.Micron's management described the demand for CPU-side AI Agents as "pre-season warm-up," viewing it as a new pillar of growth outside the GPU ecosystem. For emerging technologies like SRAM, Micron believes their scalability is limited and cannot challenge the core position of HBM, with only about 5% of systems currently running such specific workloads. Deutsche Bank maintains a "Buy" rating, believing Micron has a unique advantage of "growth without sacrificing profits." During FMS, Sandisk and SK Hynix jointly released the first HBF technical specifications, but Micron believes that its actual value and commercialization prospects remain controversial.

Glassnode: BTC has dropped to around $62,600, spot demand is weak but long-term holders remain resilient

Glassnode released the report "BTC Market Pulse: Week 32," stating that Bitcoin has recently fallen to around $62,600, with weak spot demand and rising defensive sentiment in the derivatives market. However, increased on-chain activity, confidence among long-term holders, and ETF capital inflows continue to support the market.The report pointed out that Bitcoin previously failed to maintain the rebound after breaking through $66,000 and has now retreated from the $65,000 range. The current price trend reflects a weakening of spot momentum, with sustained net selling pressure and low trading activity keeping the market in a consolidation phase lacking clear breakthrough momentum.In the derivatives market, the overall open interest has decreased, but the funding rate for perpetual contracts has rebounded, and active selling volume has eased. The options market remains defensive, with the 25 Delta skew widening, indicating increased demand for downside protection among investors, while speculative open interest continues to decline. The ETF market has shown improvement, with net inflows and trading volume both rebounding in the past week, indicating that institutional investors are reallocating funds through regulated channels.Regarding on-chain data, Glassnode noted that Bitcoin network activity has significantly increased, with the number of daily active addresses and adjusted transfer volume both breaking through the upper limit of the statistical range, indicating an increase in network usage and economic activity. At the same time, new capital inflows have slightly increased, and capital outflow pressure has eased. In terms of holding structure, the supply ratio of short-term holders to long-term holders remains close to historical lows, showing that long-term investors still maintain strong confidence.However, the overall profitability of the market continues to decline, with the proportion of profitable supply nearing a cyclical low, and investor spending behavior is more defensive, reflecting stop-loss strategies. Glassnode concluded that the current Bitcoin market is in a transitional phase, with stability among long-term holders, increased on-chain activity, and a rebound in ETF demand providing structural support. However, valuation pressure, insufficient spot momentum, and defensive positions in derivatives still limit market risk appetite.
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