jpmorgan

Bitcoin Treasuries posted on platform X that JPMorgan disclosed an increase in holdings of Strategy by 224,545 shares, with a transaction amount of 25.5 million USD.After the increase, JPMorgan holds a total of 848,932 shares of Strategy, valued at 97.1 million USD, with a 36% increase in holdings.

JPMorgan has lowered the target price for Nvidia from $320 to $215.

The latest monitoring report released by Morgan Stanley's prime brokerage team on Tuesday shows that global equity hedge funds staged the most intense de-risking action in over a decade during the first week of November, with a widespread wave of liquidations spreading across global markets.In the Asian market, hedge funds are controlling risk exposure through a dual strategy of reducing long positions and increasing short positions, a phenomenon particularly pronounced in the tech-heavy South Korean market. The selling pressure is mainly driven by fundamental stock-picking funds, while multi-strategy, macro, and quantitative funds are taking the opportunity to close out previous short positions, indicating a clear divergence in institutional strategies.Goldman Sachs data shows that the total leverage of U.S. fundamental long-short funds plummeted by 8.7 percentage points in a single week, marking the largest decline since the outbreak of the pandemic in March 2020; however, from the perspective of all-inclusive PB clients, the overall total leverage remains as high as 314.2%, placing it in the 85th percentile over the past year. Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, Global Market Strategy Chief at JPMorgan, believes that this round of adjustment is essentially a concentrated deleveraging by momentum traders, with capitulation-style selling already quite deep, and technical indicators suggest that short-term oversold and bottoming signals are accumulating.

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that JPMorgan Asset Management will incorporate Bitcoin into its long-term investment assumptions for 2027, expecting a compound annual return of 10%, higher than other asset classes; the estimated correlation of Bitcoin with U.S. large-cap stocks is 33%.JPMorgan expects Bitcoin's annualized volatility to be 55%, and due to its unstable correlation with other assets, it will exclude Bitcoin from its main portfolio models. Its long-term assumptions also include a return of 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 9.8% for private equity, 7% for a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio, and 5.5% for gold. JPMorgan describes Bitcoin's investment characteristics as speculative assets and notes that its portfolio allocation role is related to monetary easing; adoption, regulation, and liquidity will all affect its economic characteristics. Grayscale states that the related portfolio returns depend on future returns and changes in the relationships between assets.

According to the Business Times, HSBC, Kinexys under JPMorgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Societe Generale-Forge under Société Générale, and Standard Chartered Bank have established a non-profit organization in Singapore called Global Layer One Organisation (GL1 Org) to promote the development and adoption of common standards and frameworks for tokenized financial markets.The organization will continue the work of the GL1 initiative by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, facilitating interoperability among different institutions, infrastructures, and jurisdictions.

Digital asset investment platform Grayscale stated that JPMorgan has included Bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, providing a 10% annual return forecast.Grayscale indicated that Bitcoin is gaining institutional attention due to its high annual returns and a correlation of only 33% with U.S. large-cap stocks.

JPMorgan conducted a scenario analysis on four potential congressional power combinations following the U.S. midterm elections. Among them, the probability of the Democratic Party winning control of both the House and Senate is the highest at 66%; the Republican Party's chance of retaining both chambers is only 7%, but this corresponds to the largest expected increase in the S&P 500 index among the four scenarios. In the scenario where the Democratic Party controls both chambers, the S&P 500 index could drop by 0.25% or rise by 0.5%. Concerns about stricter AI regulations and restrictions on data center construction may trigger a sell-off in AI concept stocks.JPMorgan believes that even if legislation restricting the development of the AI industry is passed by Congress, it would be difficult to gather enough votes to override Trump's presidential veto. Therefore, it suggests that traders consider buying during pullbacks in tech stocks. Fiscal deficit spending may decrease, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields could face downward pressure. Some corporate executives associated with Trump's political donations may face greater risks of congressional investigations. The probability of the Democratic Party controlling the House and the Republican Party controlling the Senate is 26%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.5% to 1%. The market may welcome the legislative stalemate brought about by the distribution of power, leading to a potential decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, although some companies and their leaders may still face congressional inquiries.In the scenario where the Republican Party retains both chambers, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 1% to 1.25%. The market would not have to immediately face new congressional regulatory risks, and the additional policy pressures on tech companies would also be relatively limited; however, fiscal deficit spending may further increase, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher, and Trump may continue military actions against Iran. The probability of the Republican Party controlling the House and the Democratic Party controlling the Senate is 1%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.25% to 0.75%. A split Congress could lead to more intense budget battles, potentially resulting in a federal government shutdown, and the Democratic Party could still conduct congressional investigations after gaining control of the Senate.

JPMorgan analysts pointed out that the U.S. Treasury may increase the scale of short-term borrowing when it announces its quarterly refinancing plan next week. The net borrowing amount aimed at private investors is expected to reach $2.038 trillion this year, rising to $2.202 trillion by 2027.The issuance scale of short-term bonds is expected to grow earlier, with privately held outstanding short-term Treasury bills increasing by $401 billion in 2026 and by $991 billion in 2027.

According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, JPMorgan, AMD, Applied Materials, Coca-Cola, Adobe, Dell, and Sandisk oppose OKXICE tokenizing its shares, bringing the total number of opposing companies to 33.

Yuxuan Tang, the Head of Asian Rates and FX Strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, stated that due to thin liquidity and the potential for further interest rate increases, gold faces downside risks. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates in December and the first quarter of 2027, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to peak between 5.25% and 5.5% by mid-year.Despite the weakness in the gold market, its appeal as a hedging tool may drive a rebound in gold prices later next year.

Anthropic has selected JPMorgan Chase to handle its IPO stock sales aimed at retail investors in the United States, expecting to allocate about 15% to 20% of the shares to retail investors.JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon will participate in the IPO activities. Citigroup is responsible for coordinating the sale to international retail investors, and the IPO will also take place in Australia, Canada, Japan, some European Economic Area countries, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

Bitcoin News posted on X platform that Coinbase Institutional Co-CEO Brett Tejpaul stated that large banks in the United States are increasingly relying on Coinbase to provide digital asset service infrastructure.PNC private banking clients can directly buy, sell, and hold Bitcoin through its platform; JPMorgan is integrating Chase accounts, debit cards, and rewards with Coinbase, but will not offer Bitcoin trading within the banking app; Citibank is collaborating with Coinbase to provide stablecoin payment services for businesses.

According to Goldman Sachs data, in the past two weeks, global technology stocks have experienced a net sell-off of approximately $20 billion, with the intensity of the sell-off reaching an extreme level of -3.3 standard deviations. The sell-off scale in the TMT sector is close to the $23 billion seen in July of this year. Meanwhile, the volatility spread between the Nasdaq 100 Index and the S&P 500 Index has risen to the 98th percentile of the past five years, indicating a significant increase in market demand for hedging against technology stocks.According to JPMorgan, the scale of debt financing for AI infrastructure has exceeded $500 billion this year, with the financing costs for large-scale cloud service providers rising by about 120 basis points compared to before. As Google, Microsoft, and Amazon release their earnings reports this week, the market will focus on whether AI capital expenditures can be converted into actual revenue, as well as the sustainability of financing for subsequent investment expansions.JPMorgan believes that the financing relationship between Nvidia and GPU operators may become a channel for credit risk transmission. If operator financing tightens, pressure may spread upstream along the supply chain. The bank maintains a constructive view on the fundamentals of the technology sector, believing that a buying window may appear in early November, but it is still necessary to observe signals such as further market position clearing, corporate earnings realization, and credit spread narrowing.

According to Zhitong Finance, JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee maintains a "Buy" rating on Microsoft with a target price of $625. The research report states that investors will closely monitor the business growth of Azure, the commercial version of Microsoft 365 Cloud, and Copilot.Chatterjee indicated that compared to the quarterly earnings report itself, the stock price reaction may be more determined by performance outlook, as investors hope to see sustainable signals of growth in cloud business and artificial intelligence.Yorkville Ives analyst Dan Ives maintained a "Outperform" rating on Microsoft with a target price of $615 on Friday, and listed Microsoft as one of his "Top 5 Tech Picks Before 2027." Ives stated that the concentrated earnings reports from large cloud providers like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon are expected to soothe the highly volatile market.

Analysts indicate that regulatory-led measures can encourage institutional participation in the cryptocurrency ecosystem in the short term, but only legislation can make the framework more robust in the long term. Currently, the cryptocurrency industry has to rely on a series of fragmented regulatory actions, which may be overturned in the next two years due to political changes. At the same time, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued a five-year "innovation exemption" for tokenized stocks, requiring that tokens must possess the financial and voting rights of the original stocks.Additionally, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is exploring allowing leveraged cryptocurrency trading on regulated U.S. platforms, while the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has granted national trust charters to an increasing number of stablecoin issuers and digital asset companies, placing activities such as custody and reserve management under federal regulation. The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) is also considering allowing companies to classify certain stablecoins as cash equivalents to support their broader use in payments and liquidity management.

J.P. Morgan's latest report states that publicly listed technology companies worldwide are expected to generate approximately $2.2 trillion in operating cash flow this year, with capital expenditures and R&D expenditures totaling about $1.8 trillion. After deductions, there remains a surplus of about $400 billion, sufficient to support current AI infrastructure investments without relying on external financing.In response to market concerns regarding the sustainability of financing models for new cloud vendors, J.P. Morgan believes that their scale is still relatively limited compared to the entire technology sector. Even if financing comes under pressure, it is unlikely to shake the overall AI investment cycle. The report estimates that new cloud vendors will have operating cash flow of about $30 billion this year, with capital expenditures and R&D expenditures around $80 billion. If there is a funding gap, more financially robust hyperscale cloud service providers can still take on the related demand.J.P. Morgan also pointed out that part of the current financing demand in the technology sector stems from large-scale stock buybacks. Companies can release funds by reducing buybacks to maintain AI investments. The overall stock position in the market has retreated from the mid-September peak, and trend-following investors' long positions in semiconductors have also been largely digested. The bank believes that the short-term downward space in the market is gradually narrowing.

According to The Defiant, as JPMorgan launched its token JPMD on Ethereum, 13 counterfeit tokens with the same name appeared in the market. JPMorgan's official documentation warns that the tokens with the same name on other addresses are not related to the bank.The bank's genuine Ethereum token currently shows zero supply and zero holders.

JPMorgan Chase raised the target price for SpaceX from $240 to $500, maintaining an "Overweight" rating. The bank currently expects SpaceX's revenue to reach $254 billion by 2027, with computing capacity expected to reach 10 gigawatts (GW) by the end of the year, and has more than doubled its related forecasts for 2027 to 2028.JPMorgan Chase also believes that a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla has strategic significance, but it is still uncertain whether the related deal can be reached.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has first included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market expectations, forecasting an annualized return of about 10% for Bitcoin over the next decade, which is expected to outperform stocks, bonds, and gold. However, this prediction also assumes that Bitcoin's annualized volatility could reach as high as 55%, more than three times that of U.S. large-cap stocks.J.P. Morgan believes that the gradual improvement of the regulatory framework, along with the continuous enhancement of market liquidity and price discovery mechanisms, may further promote Bitcoin's recognition in traditional financial markets. Looking ahead to the next decade, technological innovations in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, healthcare, and space, as well as a global capital expenditure growth of approximately $15 trillion, are also expected to drive economic growth and asset returns. Analysts point out that the correlation between Bitcoin and other assets is unstable, making it currently unsuitable as a diversification asset in balanced investment portfolios; therefore, the institution has not yet included it in its main investment portfolio model. If Bitcoin's volatility continues to decline in the future and its correlation with other assets stabilizes, its portfolio allocation value is expected to increase.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated in an exclusive interview with The Wall Street Journal that the current state of the U.S. economy is strong, with significant growth in corporate profits, a low unemployment rate, and overall low leverage for businesses and consumers. He described this as a good time. Dimon also pointed out that several potential risks are accumulating beneath the surface, including persistent inflation that has lasted for five years, large fiscal deficits, and geopolitical uncertainties such as overseas wars.He emphasized that predicting the specific timing and triggers of an economic downturn is extremely difficult, as the eventual recession is often caused by a combination of factors that cannot be accurately assessed at present. When discussing how banks should respond, Dimon stated that JPMorgan Chase conducts extremely in-depth analyses of various risks to ensure that the bank can withstand shocks whether interest rates rise or fall, and whether inflation or stagflation occurs, while continuing to serve clients during difficult times. He mentioned that the bank is prepared for extreme scenarios such as a 40% drop in the stock market and a two to three times widening of bond credit spreads, rather than trying to guess when these scenarios will happen. The core principle is to be well-prepared to continuously support businesses and communities in various environments.