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According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin unspent transaction output (UTXO) data shows that the proportion of loss transactions to profit transactions in the current market has dropped to the lowest level of this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a clear "surrender" phase.This indicator has previously triggered multiple times at historical cycle bottom areas. The last similar low occurred during the mid-2023 deep phase of the bear market, when the Bitcoin price briefly fell to around $26,000. Analysts believe that such phases usually correspond to extremely low market sentiment, with long-term investors gradually starting to accumulate again.Darkfost pointed out that this is the first time this signal has been triggered since the start of the current correction, indicating that the number of UTXOs sold at a loss is significantly increasing, reflecting a broader sell-off and surrender behavior that has begun. He also added that the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders' Bitcoin is gradually entering negative territory.

According to CoinDesk, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng stated that the significant decline in the crypto market in the first half of 2026 does not have a single cause. Geopolitical tensions, investors shifting funds to AI, and the typical four-year cycle of crypto may collectively lead to the continued decline of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Bitcoin reached a historical high of over $126,000 last October and has since fallen by about 50%. At the beginning of this year, Bitcoin opened near $89,000, briefly rose to just above $96,000, and then dropped to around $60,000.In the long term, the crypto industry will continue to develop, and the demand for fintech will increase as the number of transactions continues to rise, so they are not concerned about the industry itself or short-term price fluctuations. They stated that emerging industries like AI are absorbing "hot money" from the crypto sector, but in the long run, this could be a positive factor. When discussing prediction markets, Zhao Changpeng mentioned that the rapid growth of prediction markets as tools for price discovery and liquidity is a good thing for the public.Regarding regulation, Zhao Changpeng stated that separate bills like the U.S. Clarity Act are important but more tactical matters that will not determine the long-term growth of the crypto industry. He hopes the Clarity Act can pass and believes that if U.S. legislation is delayed, other countries may take the lead in advancing rule-making.Zhao Changpeng also mentioned that if the U.S. Democratic Party regains control of at least one chamber of Congress after the midterm elections, there may be a review of Trump's support for the crypto industry and his pardons for crypto executives. Zhao Changpeng stated he "has nothing to hide" and is willing to cooperate if relevant parties seek information. When discussing political influence, Zhao Changpeng said he tries to stay away from U.S. politics but believes that any anti-crypto individuals may now lose a significant number of votes.

According to CoinDesk, Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoffrey Kendrick stated in a report on Friday that the cryptocurrency market has reached the final bottom of this monetary cycle. The cycle low for Bitcoin is currently set at $59,000, down 53% from the historical high of $126,000 reached on October 6. Kendrick expects that by the end of this year, the price of Ethereum will reach $4,000, and the price of Bitcoin will reach $100,000.He pointed out that there are two core factors supporting this market rebound. First, in recent weeks, Bitcoin spot ETFs have faced the most severe sell-off since their inception. Since the second week of May, total redemptions have exceeded $5.72 billion. He also noted that it is rumored that ETF holders have been liquidating their positions to free up funds to participate in SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO). Kendrick stated that SpaceX's IPO this Friday could end the current selling pressure.Second, if the G7-related peace agreement reached between the U.S. and Iran is true, it would help prevent oil prices from skyrocketing. A decline in oil prices would suppress the rising U.S. Treasury yields, thereby alleviating the macro pressure on the cryptocurrency market. To confirm that the market bottom is solid, Kendrick will closely monitor in the coming days: the news on Monday about Strategy (MSTR) increasing its Bitcoin holdings this week; whether the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF can restore net inflows this Friday.

DefiLlama founder 0xngmi posted on the X platform stating that the current claims about Aave's TVL being overestimated due to circular borrowing are inaccurate.He explained that in the TVL statistics, borrowed assets are excluded, so circular borrowing does not inflate the total locked value. For example, deposited assets count towards TVL, while the corresponding borrowed portion is offset. He also added that DefiLlama had previously removed duplicate calculations caused by collateral loops related to Ethena, believing that the related doubts are unfounded.

As high APY and liquidity bonuses gradually recede, DeFi is undergoing a critical cycle test from "narrative-driven" to "real demand."On April 21st at 8 PM, the themed Space "From Narrative-Driven to Real Demand: What Cycle Test is DeFi Undergoing?" will commence. This session will focus on three core topics: whether DeFi can return to the narrative mainline under the diversion of AI and RWA; whether JUST's completion of the third round of buyback and destruction marks a shift in value standards from high APY to real returns; and how ordinary users can identify signals and misconceptions in a volatile market. The event will feature special guests including WinkLink Oracle, with multiple speakers participating in the discussion.Users are encouraged to follow the official accounts @sunpumpmeme and @Agent_SunGenX, retweet the post, and @ three friends. The official account will randomly select 5 lucky users from participants to receive a reward of 10 USDT each.

In the 13th anniversary open letter, Gate founder and CEO Dr. Han pointed out that the crypto industry is undergoing a structural reshaping driven by multiple variables. Technological evolution, improvements in regulatory systems, changes in the macro environment, and a broader user base are all working together to influence the industry's development path, continuously raising the overall threshold.Dr. Han stated that this change is reflected not only in compliance and technical requirements but also in the higher demands for platform system capabilities and long-term investment; as the threshold rises, resources and space are accelerating towards participants who possess long-term judgment and sustained investment capabilities, and long-termists will gain more certain growth opportunities in the new cycle.As a global leading crypto asset trading platform, Gate always regards security and transparency as the cornerstone of development, being the first to introduce a 100% reserve proof scheme and continuously expanding its global compliance footprint. Currently, multiple entities under Gate have obtained or completed relevant regulatory registrations, license applications, authorizations, or approvals in jurisdictions such as Malta, Cyprus, the Bahamas, Japan, Australia, and Dubai. At the same time, the platform deeply integrates AI innovative technology, building an ecosystem that covers multi-asset allocation and full-scenario services, driving the industry towards a smarter and more sustainable future.

Crypto analyst Ali published a lengthy analysis on the X platform, pointing out that rather than debating whether Bitcoin has bottomed out, it is better to focus on whether the current volatility constitutes a "generational entry opportunity." Based on indicators such as long-term trend lines, on-chain liquidity, and cost distribution, the core "value range" of this cycle is defined.In terms of support, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows that there is a significant concentration of chips in the range of approximately $63,111 to $70,685, forming the current main support zone; if it falls below $63,111, the market may enter a liquidity vacuum. From a long-term trend perspective, Bitcoin is approaching the key upward trend line of the past decade (approximately $56,000 to $60,000), which historically has often corresponded to accumulation phases before major upward movements.

Market maker Wintermute's latest market weekly report indicates that the ratio of Bitcoin perpetual contract trading volume to spot trading volume has risen to 15 times, while the funding rate volatility has dropped to a low point in this cycle, showing that market leverage is high but there is insufficient directional consensus. The current structure is closer to "compression and accumulation," or brewing significant unilateral volatility.Wintermute believes that if geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices fall back to around $100, short positions will face the risk of being squeezed to between $70,000 and $74,000. If the situation continues to ease, the resistance level at $74,000 may be tested.Conversely, if the situation escalates further and oil prices rise to $120, oil prices could drop to just above $60, and if the cyclical trend is similar, it could fall to the mid-high $50,000 range. More macro-wise, the directionality here is not important; what matters is the market structure itself. The leverage on futures contracts is high, capital flows are fluctuating within the narrowest range ever recorded, and volatility is also narrowing.Regarding which direction the catalysts ultimately develop, the market structure indicates that the resulting volatility will far exceed the levels currently reflected in spot, futures, and options prices.

According to Jinshi Data, the People's Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee held its first quarter meeting of 2026 (the 112th meeting) on March 26. The meeting analyzed the domestic and international economic and financial situation, noting that the current changes in the external environment have deepened, the momentum of the world economy is weak, geopolitical conflicts and trade conflicts are frequent, the economic performance of major economies is diverging, and there is uncertainty in inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments.China's economic operation is generally stable, with progress in stability and new achievements in high-quality development, but it still faces issues and challenges such as strong supply and weak demand, and external shocks. It is necessary to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, increase counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, better leverage the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of both total volume and structure, and strengthen the coordination and cooperation between monetary and fiscal policies to promote stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Schmid said that we do not have cyclical issues in the labor market, and if there are, we would have a different view on monetary policy.

According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, a trader has bought 61.93 WBTC (worth $4.092 million) on-chain through a looped long position in the past 17 hours, with an average cost of $66,082.5.Currently, they have collateralized 118.83 WBTC and borrowed 4.1 million USDT, with a health factor of 1.72.

According to CoinDesk, the supply of long-term Bitcoin holders fell to 14.33 million in November, the lowest level since March, coinciding with Bitcoin's pullback low of $80,000.Currently, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded to $90,000, up about 15% from the low. Data shows that after experiencing a 36% peak-to-trough pullback, most of the spot market-driven selling pressure has subsided.In previous cycles, the supply of long-term holders typically saw a sharp decline during the retail-driven frenzy phase accompanying cycle peaks, especially in 2017 and 2021. However, the long-term market behavior in this cycle shows a more cautious distribution rather than a dramatic crash, indicating changes in market structure and holder behavior, with on-chain behavior shifts breaking the traditional four-year cycle structure.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant analyst Shayan Markets stated that the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) of Bitcoin is an indicator to measure whether the asset is overvalued. This indicator recently fell below its 365-day moving average, suggesting that the Bitcoin market may be forming a "cyclical bottom."The analyst mentioned in a report on Monday: "The MVRV ratio is currently close to 1.9, slightly below its 365-day moving average. Historically, every time this ratio falls below the 365-day simple moving average (SMA), it marks the arrival of a buying opportunity and a local bottom signal." The last occurrences of this were in mid-2021, June 2022, and early 2024, after which Bitcoin prices rose by 135%, 100%, and 196%, respectively.This ongoing pattern indicates that Bitcoin has once again "entered an undervalued phase, where long-term holders typically begin to accumulate." If history repeats itself, Bitcoin prices may initiate a long-term recovery. The analyst expects that if the final phase of the bull market begins, the short-term target price could be around $115,000, potentially even reaching $190,000.

ChainCatcher news, DeFiance Capital researcher Kyle posted on social media that, given the current market sentiment, the last time such a situation occurred was during the FTX or Celsius collapse. This drop can basically be considered a cycle-ending event, but this time BTC and ETH are surprisingly stable. The evolution of the crypto industry complex is indeed astonishing, but altcoins are clearly repeating the same tragedy—despite my repeated warnings over the past few months, I didn't expect it to be this severe.In summary, this is not the "best" time to buy the dip, but it is definitely the time when one "should" buy the dip. Extreme panic has been released, and the market is building a bottom, although there may still be room for further declines. Looking at the bigger picture, we are definitely closer to the bottom than to the top. The choice of assets at this moment is crucial, as many projects may never recover.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Jill Hirzel from Insight Investment stated in a report that the dollar may weaken as Trump's policies undermine the appeal of American exceptionalism and could lead to a decrease in capital inflows into the United States.Hirzel stated: "Policy uncertainty and a more aggressive 'America First' agenda may erode the cyclical support for the dollar, leading it into a period of sustained weakness." However, she also pointed out that investors should be cautious when overly betting on a decline in the dollar through short positions, as growth outside the United States is expected to be at best weak, and speculators may already hold significant short positions on the dollar.Furthermore, before signs of economic weakness emerge that are sufficient to concern policymakers, inflation-adjusted real interest rates may still remain elevated.