crisis

According to Cointelegraph, Ethereum is embroiled in a fierce governance debate over the source of core development funding. Last Friday, former Ethereum Foundation contributor Trenton Van Epps warned that as old support programs deplete and foundation expenditures shrink, the core development ecosystem could face a "slow-burning funding crisis" within three to nine months, requiring approximately $30 million annually to maintain over a dozen clients, research, and coordination teams.The core of the debate stems from the "validator redirect income" proposal put forward by Kleros co-founder Clément Lesaege, which suggests redirecting 0% to 10% of validator rewards to an ecosystem funding pool, estimated to generate about 50,000 to 70,000 ETH annually at current staking levels. This proposal has faced widespread opposition, with critics warning that it could entrench the power of large validators and blur the boundaries between operations and governance. Some community members previously countered that the foundation's funds are sufficient to operate for 30 years, but the foundation's actual decisions indicate that it is actively shrinking expenditures and pushing for diversified funding models.On Monday, a nonprofit organization called EthLabs was announced, initiated by five former Ethereum Foundation researchers, aiming to directly fund development through large ETH holders. On Tuesday, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin stated that the foundation is cutting its budget by about 40% according to established policies and has recently laid off 54 people.

In response to Ethereum core developer Trent Van Epps' lengthy article pointing out that Ethereum is entering a critical institutional turning point, including legitimacy distribution, governance structure evolution, and potential protocol funding crises, Tom Lee, chairman of the Ethereum treasury company Bitmine, responded by stating that the possibility of such a crisis occurring in Ethereum is zero, and wrote "Funding secured."Data shows that Bitmine has been increasing its holdings in Ethereum weekly, with the total holdings now exceeding 5.62 million coins.

Aave experienced approximately $8.45 billion in fund withdrawals after the KelpDAO's rsETH cross-chain bridge was attacked in April 2026, but the core functions of the protocol did not fail, successfully completing one of the largest liquidity stress tests in DeFi to date. This crisis originated from the attack on KelpDAO's LayerZero cross-chain bridge, resulting in approximately $292 million in rsETH being stolen, raising concerns in the market about the collateral value and solvency of rsETH.As rsETH is widely used as collateral in protocols like Aave, the risk quickly spread, leading to concentrated withdrawals by users, with some market utilization reaching 100% at one point, causing some users to be unable to withdraw funds immediately. In the face of liquidity tightening, the Aave risk management team initiated emergency freeze and parameter adjustment mechanisms to limit the spread of risk.Aave founder Stani Kulechov viewed this incident as proof of the maturity of DeFi, believing that the protocol continued to operate as designed under extreme pressure, demonstrating the resilience of an on-chain transparent, rules-driven system. However, several independent analysts pointed out that while Aave avoided a systemic collapse, the event exposed that the DeFi lending system still has concentration risks, liquidity risks, and contagion risks arising from high interconnectivity between protocols. The behavior of large borrowers could have an impact on the overall stability of the system that exceeds model expectations.Aave currently controls risk through multiple protective measures such as loan-to-value (LTV) limits, liquidation thresholds, supply caps, borrowing limits, Isolation Mode, E-Mode, and governance mechanisms. These mechanisms played a role during this crisis, but observers believe that the governance response speed and risk models still need further optimization to cope with future unknown systemic shocks.Analysis suggests that this incident indicates that DeFi protocols can withstand large-scale runs without external assistance, but a single stress test cannot fully prove system safety. As the composability between protocols continues to strengthen, an issue with an external asset or cross-chain bridge could still quickly evolve into a liquidity crisis for the entire ecosystem.

Trent Van Epps, the former core development coordinator of the Ethereum Foundation, stated that as the foundation continues to advance its "Subtraction governance" strategy, the size of the treasury gradually shrinks, and the four-year Client Incentive Program (CIP) expires this April, the Ethereum core development ecosystem may face a slowly brewing funding crisis in the next 3 to 9 months.Trent pointed out that maintaining the normal operation of over 10 Ethereum client teams, research institutions, and coordinating organizations requires approximately $30 million in funding support each year. If funding continues to be insufficient, it may lead to the loss of key developers, a slowdown in protocol upgrades, and weaken Ethereum's long-term competitiveness in areas such as scalability, quantum computing defense, and network maintenance. The Ethereum Foundation is not designed to be a permanent governor, and new institutions will need to take on the responsibilities of protocol development over the next decade. As the foundation's influence gradually declines, the Ethereum ecosystem urgently needs to establish new funding allocation mechanisms, governance frameworks, and institutional inheritance systems to ensure the long-term sustainable development of the protocol.

According to The Block, Strike founder and Twenty One Capital CEO Jack Mallers stated that the current price of Bitcoin reflects the true state of the global liquidity crisis. He pointed out that the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is at a historical low, while the S&P 500 is at a historical high, indicating that central bank intervention has distorted the value of the stock market as a signal. Mallers said, "Bitcoin is the closest thing we have to the truth of money."Mallers believes that countries are currently financing wars, AI development, and deficit spending simultaneously, individuals are defaulting on credit cards and rent, and the world is in a cash-raising mode, selling the most liquid assets. "You sell what you can sell, not what you want to sell." Regarding Strategy selling 32 BTC, Mallers stated that this was to make the market accept the reality that its "never sell" stance is no longer feasible. He questioned whether Strategy's perpetual priority tool creates a permanent liquidity obligation, requiring choices to be made among different stakeholders each time liquidity is needed.

According to Forbes, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned about the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, stating that if stablecoin issuers are allowed to provide returns to users in a manner similar to bank deposit interest, the related model could eventually collapse.Dimon stated that the bill allows cryptocurrency companies to offer returns similar to deposit interest through stablecoin accounts without the corresponding regulatory protections, and the banking industry would not accept such arrangements. He said, "I am not worried about stablecoins themselves, but if this happens, I will not participate, and it will ultimately collapse."The CLARITY Act aims to clarify the regulatory framework for the U.S. cryptocurrency industry and delineate the responsibilities of regulatory agencies. Previously, Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the U.S. Digital Asset Advisory Committee, stated that the Trump administration planned to push for the bill's passage before July 4. However, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act passing by 2026 has fallen from nearly 70% to just above 50%.

According to CoinDesk, Elena Carletti, an executive at UniCredit Bank in Italy, warned that Europe may struggle to cope with the financial shocks related to crypto companies and banks. Carletti pointed out that when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed in 2023, the United States decided to protect all deposits, including funds held by stablecoin issuers, a measure that helped stabilize the crypto market.Carletti stated that Europe cannot easily take the same measures. The EU's MiCA regulations require stablecoin issuers to hold reserve assets in liquid assets such as bank deposits and government securities, which ties them more closely to traditional banks. However, the European deposit guarantee system typically only protects up to €100,000 per bank per depositor. If large stablecoin reserve accounts come under pressure, this limit may not be sufficient to absorb the shock. Carletti described this as a "double weakness."

According to Forbes, Bitcoin bulls have added a macro narrative. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the $39 trillion debt crisis in the U.S. could lead to a long-term devaluation or even collapse of the dollar, while JPMorgan analysts believe that the market is witnessing a rotation from gold to Bitcoin in the currency devaluation trade.Dalio stated that the current annual spending in the U.S. is about $7 trillion, with revenues of only about $5 trillion, and the long-term fiscal deficit and debt expansion are nearing historically dangerous levels. He believes that during similar periods, fiat currencies tend to depreciate continuously, while gold benefits.Meanwhile, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out that as the conflict in Iran escalates, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has continued to exceed that of gold ETFs, with some funds viewing Bitcoin as digital gold and a hedge against dollar devaluation.The report mentioned that since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the price of Bitcoin has risen by about 30%, although it is still below the historical high of $126,000 in 2025. Notable investors, including Stanley Druckenmiller and Elon Musk, have also expressed concerns about the long-term status of the dollar as a reserve currency.

According to Bitcoin.com, the Venezuelan government has reiterated a nationwide ban on cryptocurrency mining to address the current energy crisis.The country's national power system peak demand reached 15,579 megawatts, a new high in nine years, with officials attributing this electricity peak to a persistent heatwave and national economic growth. The statement emphasized that "digital mining is absolutely prohibited nationwide," and violators will face legal sanctions. Authorities have developed a supervision plan to enforce this ban.

According to Caixin, Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned that the Trump administration's push for financial deregulation, particularly the relaxation of bank capital requirements and regulatory transparency, is significantly increasing the risk of a systemic financial crisis in the United States in the future.Kenneth Rogoff pointed out that one of the important reasons supporting the relaxation of regulations is to allow traditional banks to maintain innovation and market competitiveness in the competition with cryptocurrencies, especially stablecoins pegged to the dollar. If cryptocurrency regulations are relaxed simultaneously, combined with the deregulation of the traditional financial system, it could trigger a "double deregulation" risk, ultimately leading to systemic collapse. Although a comprehensive banking crisis may not erupt in the short term, the risks have clearly increased, and the regulatory balance between stablecoins and the traditional banking system is becoming a key hidden danger.

According to CoinDesk, while quantum computers cannot disrupt the Bitcoin mining mechanism or the blockchain ledger, they may potentially crack the elliptic curve encryption system that protects wallet ownership through Shor's algorithm. Currently, about 6.9 million BTC (approximately one-third of the total supply) face potential risks due to public keys being visible on-chain, including around 1 million early holdings by Satoshi Nakamoto; transactions generated after the Taproot upgrade in 2021 are also affected due to public key exposure.Ethereum has established a formal quantum resistance migration plan since 2018, with 4 full-time teams and over 10 independent development groups, and has launched a dedicated progress website at pq.ethereum.org. In contrast, Bitcoin currently lacks a unified response roadmap, and the existing BIP-360 proposal and BitMEX Research detection scheme have not received widespread support from core developers. Notable Bitcoin advocate Nic Carter pointed out that Bitcoin's response is "the worst," while Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes that current quantum systems are still in the laboratory stage, but he also agrees that optional upgrade solutions should be deployed in advance.Analysts point out that Bitcoin's anti-centralization governance culture makes coordinating large-scale security upgrades extremely difficult, and how to handle historical legacy issues such as Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings is particularly challenging. A related paper from Google warns that once quantum attacks become a reality, the window for response may have already closed.

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua stated that peace negotiations typically move from disagreement to consensus. The motivation for continued warfare among all parties is weakening under the current circumstances, and the conflict may gradually come to an end. "We still insist that the war will end; neither side has any reason to continue fighting. Waiting for a rebound without taking profits, the moment an agreement is reached will be a bullish signal."He pointed out that, from a medium to long-term perspective, the market is generally waiting for a potential large-scale financial crisis. There are signs of defensive positioning on the funding side, such as large capital holding a high proportion of cash and sovereign entities increasing their gold holdings. In this context, if a crisis occurs again, it will be a key moment to test whether Bitcoin possesses the attributes of a safe-haven asset, and it may also present significant opportunities for low-position allocations.In addition, Yi Lihua believes that AI technology is bringing a new round of opportunities for outstanding entrepreneurs. A small number of teams can create global products, reducing financing and organizational management costs. Especially experienced serial entrepreneurs should seize this "AI Age of Exploration."

Data shows that the economic pressure on Bitcoin mining is intensifying. The current average production cost per coin is about $88,000, while the current Bitcoin price is approximately $69,200, meaning miners are losing nearly $19,000 per BTC, resulting in an overall loss of about 21%. Meanwhile, the overall mining difficulty has decreased by about 7.8%, marking the second-largest drop within 2026, reflecting the exit of computing power and rising network pressure.Analysis suggests that rising energy prices, combined with the tense situation in the Middle East, further increase mining costs. Electricity costs remain under pressure, and if miners are forced to sell Bitcoin to maintain operations, it could create additional selling pressure on the market. If Bitcoin prices continue to stay below the cost line and difficulty continues to decrease, the process of miners clearing out may continue, putting pressure on the spot market structure in the short term.

According to CoinDesk, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, stated that the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin is real, but it does not currently pose an imminent crisis. Investors should not misinterpret this long-term technological challenge as an immediate reason to avoid Bitcoin.Thorn pointed out that the current risk is limited to specific addresses with exposed public keys on-chain, including reused addresses, addresses held by certain custodians, and assets in old address formats. An analysis by security firm Project Eleven shows that approximately 7 million BTC (equivalent to about $47 billion at recent prices) are in this "long-term exposed" state, but they remain secure under current quantum computing capabilities.In terms of countermeasures, developers have advanced several proposals, including the introduction of new address types based on post-quantum cryptography, a "sandglass" mechanism that restricts spending permissions for permanently exposed public key addresses, and a phased upgrade path that fundamentally reduces the broadcasting of public keys in transactions.

According to Jinshi News, John Taylor, head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors, stated that the Federal Reserve meeting will undoubtedly be influenced to some extent by the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices. This meeting may determine the next direction of the market, with attention on the dot plot and the divergences among Federal Reserve officials, as well as any wording hints regarding commodity supply shocks in Powell's press conference. After the surge in oil prices, the market has canceled the rate cut expectations from earlier this year, but if the conflict ends quickly, these expectations will be rapidly repriced.