collapse

Cryptoquant released a report stating that on July 31, as Coldcard users rushed to transfer funds, on-chain activity surged dramatically. The number of daily active Bitcoin addresses soared from 645,000 on July 30 to nearly 1 million, the highest level since December 10, 2024, almost entirely driven by sending addresses. The total amount of transfers below 1 BTC on that day reached 39,600 BTC, slightly below the 39,900 BTC recorded after the FTX collapse; the total amount of transfers below $100,000 reached $3.2 billion, a new high since November 21, 2024.Long-term holder spending jumped from 269,000 BTC on July 30 to 406,000 BTC, the highest since January 14. The exchange recharge volume for small holders surged to the highest level since February 6. The mempool transactions increased from 33,000 to about 96,000, the highest since June 20. Analysis indicates that a large number of users have taken action to migrate funds, but an unknown number of holders still face risks.

As the suspected hacking incident involving the Coldcard wallet continues to unfold, Bitcoin microtransaction activity has surged, reaching its highest level since the FTX exchange collapse, prompting renewed discussions in the market about the security of self-custodied Bitcoin.CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno disclosed data showing that the number of Bitcoin transactions under 1 BTC circulating on-chain has risen to its highest level since November 2022, with approximately 39,600 BTC transferred in a single day, just about 300 BTC lower than the record set on November 16, 2022 (39,900 BTC) a few days after FTX filed for bankruptcy. He believes that users taking proactive measures to address risks is a positive sign.Additionally, Bloomberg ETF senior analyst Eric Balchunas believes that Bitcoin ETFs, with their mature regulatory framework and convenience, may provide a safer investment option for some users.

According to Wall St Engine, "AI stock god" Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund faced liquidity pressure during the market crash in July, with behind-the-scenes details revealed.The report states that after the market rapidly cooled in mid-July, the decline in stocks held by Situational Awareness triggered margin monitoring by banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, leading to margin calls.Insiders said that other hedge funds began shorting related stocks after learning about its positions, creating a cycle of "price drop → margin call → forced selling → further price decline."In late July, while Leopold was hosting a wedding in Carmel, he continued negotiations with his team to maintain fund operations. On the evening of July 29, he reached a preliminary agreement with a consortium led by Greenoaks and Sequoia Capital to sell approximately $3.5 billion in Anthropic equity.However, in the early hours of July 30, before the U.S. stock market opened, Leopold changed his decision, opting to retain the private equity portfolio and instead sell publicly traded stocks. Subsequently, Citadel and Millennium entered negotiations with the fund team, and Citadel ultimately acquired most of the fund's public stock investment portfolio at a discount of more than 10% below market value before Thursday's opening.This transaction helped Situational Awareness meet margin requirements and avoid formal default. After the deal was completed, related AI and semiconductor stocks rebounded on Thursday, benefiting Citadel.As of around July 31, Situational Awareness disclosed to investors that the fund had a net loss of about 67% in July, but was still up about 80% for the year. Leopold stated that he "takes full responsibility" for the incident, and the fund has removed bank leverage, planning to continue operations and invest in the public market while adjusting its portfolio management and risk control systems.

Crypto analyst Murphy stated that the Bitcoin URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) data shows that there are 890,000 coins concentrated at the $63,000 level and 710,000 coins at the $62,000 level, together accounting for about 8% of the circulating supply, which is significantly higher than usual.Murphy believes that this data is similar to the concentration seen just before the FTX incident in 2022. The high concentration increases Bitcoin's price sensitivity, making it prone to sharp fluctuations, ultimately leading to violent redistribution, which could be an important directional choice at the end of a bear market.In response, Jiang Zhuoer commented that if the CLARITY Act cannot be passed before Congress goes into recess, Bitcoin may complete its final drop to the bear market bottom.

Crypto KOL Phyrex posted on platform X, stating, "BitMart and BitMex did not close due to a collapse; it is very different from the sacrifice of FTX. These two primarily faced business issues."According to him, in 2023, BitMart had approached his associates about an acquisition, and they had done a lot of data analysis at the time, but it ultimately came to nothing. In fact, part of the decline of many third-tier exchanges is due to the impact from Binance Alpha.Small exchanges are essentially the stronghold of various altcoins, pump coins, Ponzi coins, and community coins, but the emergence of Alpha has provided better sources for these coins, which has also led to a significant reduction in listing fees for third-tier exchanges and a decrease in profits from joint market-making.Another reason is the signal teachers. In fact, the total number of signal teachers is not very large, but they have waves of associates. These teachers generally move between various exchanges, and once a new exchange offers better profits, these teachers quickly lead their followers to switch. The recent well-known cases of exchanges running away generally follow this pattern.

Renowned trader Killa stated that during the last Bitcoin bull market, about 80% of the cycle top indicators were never triggered, and similar situations may occur with future bottom indicators, so one should not mechanically rely on historical signals to determine market bottoms. He pointed out that the supply of long-term holders currently in a loss state has exceeded the levels during the FTX collapse and is approaching the levels seen during the 2018 bear market.Bitcoin's realized price is currently around $50,000, and in past cycles, the price has tested the realized price of long-term holders, so there is still a possibility of returning to that area. However, Killa indicated that it should not be assumed that Bitcoin will necessarily fall back to this level. Many top indicators in the last cycle failed to trigger, and some bottom indicators may also fail in the future. In any case, the current level of market losses is similar to that during the FTX incident and the 2018 bear market.

According to BBX data, yesterday the global publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock market and the proposed listing of crypto giants faced severe differentiation in capital operations, with the core dynamics as follows:The plan for 30,000 BTC giant to go public has collapsed: Cantor Equity Partners I (NASDAQ: $CEPO) and Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company (BSTR) jointly announced through BusinessWire yesterday that they will no longer proceed with the transaction according to the original business combination agreement signed in July 2025. The core reason is that the $1.5 billion PIPE financing has completely failed to materialize. Against the backdrop of Bitcoin dropping about 50% from its historical high, investor interest in the new Bitcoin treasury company has significantly cooled. The shareholder meeting originally scheduled for July 10 has been indefinitely postponed. BSTR originally planned to carry 30,021 BTC to list on Nasdaq and become the world's fourth-largest publicly listed company holding Bitcoin, and this collapse means that its listing path needs to be redesigned.American Bitcoin Corp. completes 1-for-15 reverse stock split and increases holdings: American Bitcoin Corp. (NASDAQ: $ABTC) recently completed a 1-for-15 reverse stock split to meet Nasdaq's minimum stock price listing maintenance requirements. While consolidating shares to maintain its listing, the company announced that it purchased 500 BTC in the secondary market against the trend, increasing its total holdings to 8,000 BTC (fair value of approximately $496 million), ranking 16th globally among publicly listed companies in terms of Bitcoin holdings. The company is approximately 44% owned by Hut 8, and Eric Trump, the second son of Trump, serves as Chief Strategy Officer.

According to Protos, the decentralized lending protocol Goldfinch, led by a16z and aimed at serving the unbanked population in Africa, is in crisis.On-chain data shows that among the 8 borrowers in the project, 2 have officially defaulted, and 6 have entered debt restructuring, with total losses exceeding $18 million. Depositors are lamenting that "the $50 million has gone down the drain." Its native token GFI has fallen from a peak of $32.94 in January 2022 to below $0.07, a decline of 99.8%, and the project's market value has shrunk from a peak of $390 million to less than $6 million.Goldfinch had previously lent over $100 million to borrowers in 18 countries, including motorcycle rental companies in Kenya and salary advance platforms in Nigeria, but the core issue lies in the severe lack of off-chain credit verification, with borrowers frequently misappropriating funds and refusing to repay. As the default rate rises, the project has quietly abandoned its positioning in emerging markets in Africa, shifting towards institutional credit funds like Ares and Apollo, rendering its original vision of inclusive finance a mere facade.

Bybit's latest options weekly report states that the directional judgment over the past four weeks has all been realized this week: BTC hit a low of $59,130, surpassing the previous target range of $65k - $67k. Last week's opening was $73,760, with a low of $59,130, marking the largest weekly decline since the FTX collapse (approximately -20%), now rebounding to $63,000. Recently, three major bearish factors have overlapped: non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations reigniting interest rate hike expectations, SpaceX's IPO drawing away liquidity, and Strategy selling BTC for the first time in four years. The ETF saw a record net outflow of $1.7 billion in a single week. ETH's daily RSI fell to a historical low of 12.78, while BTC's RSI simultaneously dropped to 15.45, increasing the probability of a technical rebound, but a trend reversal remains to be confirmed. DVOL surged from a historical low of 35 to 55 before falling back to 48, with bearish options having taken profits. Currently, do not chase long positions; BTC faces significant pressure in the $63k - $65k range, waiting for CPI and DVOL to drop to 40 or for BTC to effectively reclaim $65,000 before re-entering.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 last Monday, marking the worst weekly performance since the FTX exchange collapse in 2022. As of last Sunday, Bitcoin had accumulated a 16% decline over the past 7 days, retreating more than 50% from its historical high of over $126,000 in 2025. Several market analysts warned that the current rebound may be difficult to sustain, and Bitcoin may not have reached the bottom of this cycle yet. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, stated that the market is still quite far from the "true bottom."Data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with a total outflow of approximately $5.5 billion. At the same time, Bitcoin fell below the 200-week moving average, widely regarded as a key support level, further weakening market confidence. Paul Howard, a senior executive at crypto trading firm Wincent, described the current market as a "silent bear market," believing that falling below the 200-week moving average is an important confirmation signal for the market entering a bear phase.Analysts pointed out that the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, the reversal of expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and strong U.S. employment data are driving the market to reprice the interest rate path, with a high interest rate environment being unfavorable for the performance of risk assets, including crypto assets. Additionally, some funds are flowing from the crypto market into artificial intelligence and tech stock sectors. Nevertheless, the current pullback is still less than historical bear market cycles. In past bear markets, Bitcoin typically retreated about 80% from its peak, while this round has seen a decline of about 50%. Some traders believe that if the macro environment continues to deteriorate and companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin face financing pressures, there remains a risk of further downside in the market.

DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev stated on the X platform that BitMine and Strategy have a significant chance of causing the largest market crash in cryptocurrency history. I cross my fingers and pray this doesn't happen, but if it does, users should consider what strategies to adopt if Bitcoin crashes to $10,000 to $20,000.As the crypto market has continued to pull back recently, Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, holds 843,706 BTC at an average price of $75,699, with an unrealized loss of approximately $12.27 billion. The Ethereum treasury company BitMine, supported by Tom Lee, currently holds 5,416,901 ETH at an average price of $3,500, with an unrealized loss of approximately $10.35 billion.

Previously, David Hoffman, co-founder of Bankless, which officially announced the liquidation of ETH, expressed the view that the current Bitcoin price is just at the 200-week moving average (MA).Reviewing the historical market, BTC only effectively broke below this moving average during the bear market phase triggered by the consecutive collapses of Terra, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX, which was also a highly destructive systemic crisis in the history of the crypto industry.In his opinion, the market risks brought by the convertible bonds and other operations launched by Michael Saylor's Strategy do not reach the level of harm caused by the previous series of collapses. In addition, he disclosed the cost of his holdings again, with the cost of NEAR at about $1.4, HYPE at about $45, and ZEC at about $560.

According to Cryptopolitan, the former CEO of the Singaporean crypto lending platform Hodlnaut, Zhu Juntao, has been charged with six counts of fraudulent misrepresentation for allegedly misleading users about the exposure to TerraUSD. Hodlnaut invested $317 million from user accounts into Terra's Anchor Protocol without disclosure, resulting in a loss of $189.7 million after the UST collapse. When the platform shut down in August 2022, it owed users approximately $281 million, with assets of only $88 million, creating a shortfall of about $193 million.Prosecutors allege that Zhu Juntao instructed employees to make false promises in official Telegram groups and emails during and after the UST collapse, including claims that the company had not invested in LUNA or UST and had not suffered losses. Zhu Juntao pleaded not guilty in court, and a pre-trial conference is scheduled for June 2026. If convicted, each charge carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison.