une

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event "Time of Agreement on Permanent Peace Agreement between the United States and Iran," the "Yes" option in the sub-market "June 15" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 49.5% an hour ago to the current 19.5% (a fluctuation of 30%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

The crypto data platform Dune Analytics announced a major restructuring on Thursday, cutting 25% of its workforce while shifting its strategic focus to two main areas: AI-driven data tools and the on-chain asset adoption by financial institutions. The company stated that it is well-funded and emphasized that it has built a complete end-to-end technology stack for crypto data infrastructure, covering data collection, quality assurance, storage, cleaning, standardization, and querying. Its core product, Dune MCP, allows teams and agents to build dashboards and workflows without the need for SQL knowledge or managing data infrastructure costs.Dune stated that it currently serves almost all leading crypto companies and is expanding to large financial institution clients to address the trend of traditional assets such as currencies, stocks, bonds, and commodities migrating on-chain. Since its establishment in 2018, Dune has experienced multiple market cycles, and this restructuring reflects a broader trend in the industry towards institutional-grade infrastructure and AI integration tools.

According to Jinshi News, the CME "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 96.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 3.2%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 93.8%, with the probabilities of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points and a rate hike of 25 basis points both at 3.1%.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin treasury company Strive announced that its perpetual preferred stock SATA will pay cash dividends on each trading day starting from June 16, becoming the first listed security in the history of the U.S. capital markets to achieve daily dividend payments.Strive CEO Matthew Cole described this move as "an innovation from zero to one." The annualized dividend yield of SATA is 13%, and after converting to daily payments, the effective annualized yield increases to approximately 13.88%. Currently, Strive has zero debt and holds 15,009 bitcoins, ranking ninth in global listed companies' bitcoin reserves.

According to CryptoQuant data, the unrealized profit margin for Bitcoin traders has risen to 17.7%, the highest level since June 2025.

According to official news, the smart contract auditing platform Code4rena has announced that it will gradually cease operations, and the Web3 security company Immunefi will take over its clients and security researchers. Code4rena posted on social media that it has made the decision to shut down and stated that all ongoing competitions and bounty activities will be completed as usual, and existing collaborations will be "properly concluded." Immunefi stated that it will assist in migrating Code4rena's bounty projects, reward structures, and researchers to its platform.Code4rena is known for its "competitive auditing" model, where independent researchers compete to find vulnerabilities in smart contracts for rewards. This shutdown comes less than two years after blockchain security company Zellic acquired Code4rena in 2024. Previously, Code4rena raised $6 million from Paradigm in 2023 for auditing incentives and platform expansion.This shutdown comes at a difficult time for DeFi protocols and the security sector. Data from DefiLlama shows that there were over 20 crypto vulnerability incidents in April alone, setting a monthly record. JPMorgan analysts believe that ongoing DeFi security incidents are limiting major institutional investors from entering the market. Meanwhile, the total value locked in DeFi has decreased from about $160 billion in October to approximately $83 billion currently.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 99%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1%. Similarly, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until July is also 99%, with a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points having a probability of 1%.

According to Jinshi reports, ECB Governing Council member Kocher stated that the June meeting will make a decision between raising interest rates and maintaining the current rate.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 97.1%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 2.9%. In addition, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 96%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 3.9%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 97.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 2.4%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95.6%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.1%.

The meme coin application Zap posted on platform X that it will shut down on June 1. The team aimed last year to develop an application that allows anyone to register and purchase their first meme coin within 30 seconds. Although they achieved this goal, it did not gain the expected market appeal.They advise users to log into their accounts and export their private keys before the shutdown on June 1, and recommend importing them into Phantom to continue accessing all assets. After June 1, users who have not exported their private keys can still securely access their funds through Privy Home.

The Bitcoin inscription browser Ord.io announced on the X platform that its platform will shut down on June 1. Launched three years ago, Ord.io was positioned as an Ordinals browser supporting voting features and has now developed into a Bitcoin inscription exploration platform used by over a million users.The platform previously launched the Satributes feature for discovering rare satoshis behind inscriptions, as well as the Block Vision feature for real-time monitoring of Runes minting activities. Ord.io will upload all historical voting records, replies, and public address information to GitHub to preserve relevant Bitcoin cultural data.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 97.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 2.3%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 94.6%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 5.4%, and the probability of a rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.1%.

The BSC ecosystem's Fortune Protocol has announced the completion of its Seed round financing. This round of financing was participated in by TBV, Cogitent Ventures, X21 Digital, CGV FoF, K24 Ventures, LandScape Capital, and others.Fortune is a new generation Web3 financial protocol focused on building and innovating liquidity infrastructure for prediction markets. The funds raised in this round will be used to accelerate the development of Fortune's AI prediction tools and large-scale prediction models, promoting further development of the protocol in terms of technology, products, and ecosystem.

According to BBX data, last week the earnings season for cryptocurrency concept stocks reached its conclusion, while institutional-level derivatives product lines expanded simultaneously. The core dynamics are as follows:CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ: $CME) reported by CoinDesk on May 7 plans to officially launch Bitcoin volatility futures (BVOL) on June 1, 2026, pending regulatory approval; the underlying asset for this product is the Bitcoin implied volatility index, allowing institutional investors to take long or short positions based solely on the magnitude of volatility without needing to predict the direction of BTC price movements, filling the gap for "pure volatility tools" in the existing Bitcoin derivatives market. For corporate treasury managers (such as Strategy-type companies) and cryptocurrency options market makers who need to hedge Bitcoin position volatility exposure, BVOL provides the most direct standardized hedging tool to date.Circle Internet Group, Inc. (NYSE: $CRCL) will release its Q1 2026 earnings report today (May 11) at 8:00 AM (ET) via an official live stream; the current analyst consensus expects revenue of approximately $715 million (Zacks data $717.1 million, S&P Global data $714.9 million, year-on-year approximately +11%, quarter-on-quarter approximately -7%), adjusted EPS of about $0.15---$0.27; last quarter (Q4 2025) reserve interest income was $733 million (year-on-year +69%), with an average market cap of USDC around $76.2 billion; as of May 6, the circulating supply of USDC was approximately $78.1 billion, and the integration of stablecoin infrastructure with Meta and Visa, along with the policy expectations from the CLARITY Act markup in May, are the most closely watched valuation catalysts this season.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 93.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 6.2%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 10.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.3%.

As the first CEX platform to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that in the prediction event related to "What will the price of gold (GC) be by the end of June 2026," the overall market expectation remains relatively strong. Among these, the probability of the gold price exceeding $5,000 is 51%, the probability of exceeding $4,900 is 68%, and the probability of reaching $4,600 is about 80%; meanwhile, the probability of being below $4,500 is 55%. Overall, the market maintains a high level of attention on the medium to long-term trend of gold, with some divergence in capital expectations.Gate's performance in the Polymarket collaboration channel continues to lead, currently ranking in the top two, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and depth of participation of platform users in the prediction market. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participate in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the cryptocurrency trading ecosystem with the prediction market, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.

According to Jinshi reports, the CME "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 94.9% (down from 96.9% before the announcement), and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 5.1% (up from 3.1% before the announcement). By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.8% (down from 90.7% before the announcement), the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 10.8% (up from 9.1% before the announcement), and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.4% (up from 0.2% before the announcement).

According to Jinshi, the unemployment rate in the United States for April was 4.3%, consistent with market expectations and the previous value, both at 4.3%.