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q3

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Most crypto funds believe that Bitcoin has not yet bottomed out, and the market bottom may form between the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4

Most institutional investors believe that Bitcoin still has room for further decline, and the overall market sentiment is cautious. Macroeconomic uncertainty, tightening liquidity, ETF fund outflows, and the shift of funds towards areas like AI may still exert pressure on BTC prices. David Grider, a partner at Finality Capital, stated that the firm expects the market bottom in this cycle may not appear until the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2026, and believes that Bitcoin may complete its bottoming process in the range of $45,000 to $55,000. Even among some investors who believe the market is close to the bottom, there is a general expectation of no strong rebound in the short term.Research shows that most funds are currently increasing cash positions, reducing directional risk exposure, and adopting more market-neutral, hedging, and derivative strategies to cope with volatility. Meanwhile, institutional funds continue to focus on fundamentally strong areas such as DeFi, AI, and tokenized assets, rather than purely allocating to Bitcoin. Institutions generally believe that the high interest rate environment, liquidity contraction, geopolitical risks, and the flow of funds towards growth sectors like AI are the main downside risks facing the current market. In addition, some funds have also identified the leverage financing model of Strategy and the development of quantum computing as emerging risk factors in this cycle.Regarding the year-end trend, the funds surveyed did not provide a Bitcoin target price above $100,000. Some institutions expect BTC to fluctuate in the range of $40,000 to $80,000 within the year and believe that improvements in interest rate cut expectations, a recovery in liquidity, and progress on the U.S. CLARITY Act may become important catalysts for market recovery.

Next week's key news insights: The U.S. will release the preliminary annualized quarterly GDP for Q3; Japan will announce the unemployment rate for November

According to the RootData calendar page, next week includes several important news items such as project updates, macroeconomic finance, token unlocks, incentive activities, and presale events. Details are as follows:December 22:MBG unlocks 21.667 million tokens, valued at $11.0472 million, accounting for 16.615% of the circulating supply.December 23:ZORA unlocks 166.667 million tokens, valued at $6.8379 million, accounting for 3.715% of the circulating supply;AVAIL unlocks 209.132 million tokens, valued at $1.3988 million, accounting for 5.787% of the circulating supply;U.S. Q3 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary rate.December 24:NIL unlocks 6.1392 million tokens, valued at $0.3443 million, accounting for 2.174% of the circulating supply.December 25:Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivers a speech at the Japan Business Federation.December 26:AMI unlocks 26.3889 million tokens, valued at $0.2644 million, accounting for 22.615% of the circulating supply;W unlocks 40.3185 million tokens, valued at $1.3116 million, accounting for 0.789% of the circulating supply;ALT unlocks 246.5898 million tokens, valued at $2.6919 million, accounting for 4.971% of the circulating supply;Japan's November unemployment rate.December 27:WAL unlocks 17.5 million tokens, valued at $2.1883 million, accounting for 1.134% of the circulating supply;December 28:The deadline for claiming the AltLayer Phase 2 EIGEN airdrop is December 28 at 08:00 UTC;XPL unlocks 88.8889 million tokens, valued at $11.7222 million, accounting for 4.938% of the circulating supply;SIGN unlocks 96.6667 million tokens, valued at $3.0849 million, accounting for 6.519% of the circulating supply.In addition, there is a button at the top of the RootData calendar page for generating image shares, allowing users to select important events for sharing.Risk Warning: This calendar does not constitute any investment advice.
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