1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

July PCE exceeds expectations, Waller's Jackson Hole speech tonight

• The U.S. July PCE year-on-year is 3.7% and month-on-month is 0.2%, both higher than market expectations, confirming persistent inflation.
• The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will open on Thursday Eastern Time, with Federal Reserve Chair Waller delivering a keynote speech on Friday.
• CME data shows that maintaining interest rates in September remains the baseline scenario, but hot inflation data makes it difficult for rate hike pricing to completely dissipate.
  Market Impact: A hot PCE suppresses short-end risk appetite, and Waller's speech will become the most important policy communication window this week, directly affecting term premiums and growth stock pricing.

International Commodities

Trump says no timetable for Iran talks, diplomacy and pressure go hand in hand

• Trump stated in an interview that there is "no timetable and no rush" for Iran to return to the negotiating table, while also claiming that Iran is facing severe inflation and its economy is collapsing.
• U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm indicated that Washington prefers to resolve the Iran issue through diplomacy, but will destroy its nuclear facilities if necessary.
• Iranian President Raisi responded that the current economic pressure from the U.S. will not yield results.
  Market Impact: Expectations for geopolitical easing have cooled, providing some support for oil prices, while the risk of reassessing the inflation path has increased, leading to greater short-term commodity volatility.

Macroeconomic Policy

Data center delay risks rise, White House pushes for drug pricing agreement

• Investment firm Kimmeridge estimates that up to half of the planned data centers in the U.S. may be delayed or canceled due to political opposition, lawsuits, and infrastructure constraints.
• The White House plans to reach a new round of "most favored nation" drug pricing agreements with several mid-sized biotech companies, covering Medicaid discounts.
• Trump signed an executive order limiting the entry of certain large foreign power system equipment into the U.S. power grid.
  Market Impact: The pace of AI infrastructure implementation faces real constraints, attracting attention to the localization theme in power and equipment; the drug pricing agreement creates policy variables for related pharmaceutical companies.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,605/ounce, +0.23%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $68.7/ounce, +0.28%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $81.9/barrel, -0.4%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $84.68/barrel, -0.48%
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 99.11, -0.03%

Driving Factors Analysis: The hot July PCE reinforces the narrative of persistent inflation, providing some support for precious metals; Trump's statement about no timetable for Iran talks means geopolitical premiums have not further dissipated, stabilizing oil prices. Institutions believe that short-term commodities are jointly dominated by "hot inflation + geopolitical uncertainty," with asset linkage reflecting PCE exceeding expectations → real interest rates and policy paths being repriced → gold receiving safe-haven and value-preserving demand, oil prices supported by geopolitics.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $78,785, +0.15%
• ETH: Approximately $2,494, +1.8%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: $2.74 trillion, +0.5%
• Market Liquidation Situation: $285 million liquidated in 24h, $136 million in short liquidations
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: BTC current price is approximately $78,700, with significant short liquidation pressure in the $79,500 - $80,000 range; if it breaks $80,000, it may trigger large-scale short squeezes. The $76,500 - $78,000 range has dense long liquidations; if it falls below $78,000, leveraged longs may further accelerate liquidation, with high short-term volatility risk.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday's net inflow was $314 million, current 24h dynamic net inflow is $31.4 million.

Driving Factors Analysis: The hot PCE and cautious sentiment towards risk assets create short-term pressure on cryptocurrencies, but the "currency devaluation trade" narrative remains. Bernstein positions Bitcoin as a core asset for hard assets, giving a target of $300,000 by the end of 2029. Institutional consensus points to high-level fluctuations, with attention needed on liquidity and risk appetite changes after Waller's speech.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 53,463.88 points, down 0.21%
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,675.70 points, down 0.02%
• Nasdaq: Closed at 26,130.20 points, down 0.08%, awaiting Nvidia's guidance to digest

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $210.00, down 1.43% (after-hours approximately $218.50, up over 4%)
• AAPL: $315.20, up 1.71%
• MSFT: $496.50, up 0.97%
• GOOGL: $342.03, down 1.42%
• AMZN: $260.31, down 0.29%
• META: $576.37, up 1.11%
• TSLA: $345.65, down 1.31%

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: The hot PCE caused slight declines in the three major indices, with funds remaining cautious ahead of Nvidia's earnings report. The storage and optical communication sectors continued to strengthen, with cybersecurity stocks rising broadly. Nvidia's after-hours earnings and 70% growth guidance for fiscal year 2028 significantly boosted sentiment, leading to a rebound in tech stock futures, with individual stock differentiation shifting from "macro caution" to "company fundamentals verification."

Sector Movement Observation

Storage Concept Continues to Strengthen

• Representative Stocks: Western Digital up over 4%, Seagate Technology up over 3%, SanDisk up over 1%, Micron Technology slightly up.
• Driving Factors: The narrative of tight DRAM supply and demand continues, with funds continuing to allocate to storage bottleneck segments amid AI hardware pullbacks.

Optical Communication Soars

• Representative Stocks: Lumentum up over 6%, Ciena up over 4%, Corning up nearly 4%, Coherent up over 2%.
• Driving Factors: The logic of AI high-speed interconnection demand remains unchanged, with a recovery trend following previous pullbacks supported by fundamentals.

Cybersecurity Broadly Rises

• Representative Stocks: Okta surged nearly 21% in after-hours, CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, and Datadog up over 2%.
• Driving Factors: Improved earnings and order expectations, with defensive software receiving a return of funds.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Nvidia (NVDA) - Q2 Earnings Greatly Exceed Expectations and Provide Long-Term Guidance

Event Overview: Nvidia reported its Q2 fiscal year 2027 earnings, with revenue of $96.2 billion, a 106% year-on-year increase; adjusted EPS of $2.22, a 120% year-on-year increase. Data center revenue was $89 billion, a 117% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations. Both GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins were 75.0%. CFO Colette Kress unusually provided guidance for a revenue growth of about 70% for fiscal year 2028 (previous analyst expectations were around 44%), stating that if there are no supply constraints, the outlook will be "much higher." CEO Jensen Huang indicated that demand growth is nearing 100%, with 70% being a cautious forecast based on current supply capabilities. The stock price rose over 4% in after-hours trading.
Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this is a strong validation of the sustainability of AI demand. Providing high growth guidance a year in advance is extremely rare, indicating significant improvement in order visibility; at the same time, "supply constraints" also mean that pricing power and capacity bottlenecks remain. Analysts are focused on whether the guidance can be fulfilled, whether there is differentiation in customer capital expenditures, and the stability of gross margins amid rising memory costs.
Investment Insight: The mid-term logic is strengthened by demand validation, but valuations have partially reflected optimistic expectations, requiring tracking of supply release pace and next quarter's data center guidance.

2. Apple (AAPL) - Foldable Screen Launch Event Scheduled for September 10

Event Overview: Apple confirmed that it will hold its fall launch event at 1 AM Beijing time on September 10, with the slogan "Surprises and Sparkles." The market expects the launch of the first foldable iPhone and iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max, featuring faster chips and longer battery life. This will be the first major product launch led by new CEO John Ternus.
Market Interpretation: Institutions view the foldable screen as a new starting point for the hardware innovation cycle, which will help boost upgrade demand and service ecosystems. Analysts are focused on pricing, yield rates, and initial shipment volumes, believing that the event itself will provide support for short-term sentiment.
Investment Insight: Suitable for stable allocation in the tech sector, with a focus on tracking new product pricing and initial sales data.

3. Meta (META) - Reaches Settlement of Up to $18 Billion with Multiple States

Event Overview: Meta has agreed to pay up to approximately $18 billion to settle lawsuits related to the impact of social media on minors with multiple U.S. states, ending a landmark case.
Market Interpretation: Institutions believe that while the one-time settlement amount is large, it eliminates long-term legal uncertainty and helps the market refocus on advertising and AI business. In the short term, it may impact profits, but in the medium term, it reduces regulatory tail risks.
Investment Insight: Focus on the actual impact of the settlement on free cash flow and buyback pace, as well as subsequent changes in the regulatory environment.

4. Lumentum (LITE) - Optical Communication Continues to Lead Gains

Event Overview: Lumentum rose over 6%, with the optical communication sector collectively strengthening, and Ciena, Corning, and Coherent rising in tandem.
Market Interpretation: Institutions believe that the demand for 800G/1.6T optical modules from AI data centers is still in an expansion phase, with the recovery following previous pullbacks supported by fundamentals. Order visibility and capacity ramp-up remain key observation points.
Investment Insight: High elasticity theme allocation, suitable for tracking the prosperity of optical modules and capital expenditure implementation.

5. Okta (OKTA) - Cybersecurity Surges in After-Hours Trading

Event Overview: Okta surged nearly 21% in after-hours trading, with CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, and other cybersecurity stocks also strengthening.
Market Interpretation: Institutions attribute the surge to improved earnings expectations and the return of funds to defensive software amid macro uncertainty. Demand for identity security and zero trust has certain rigidity.
Investment Insight: Focus on subsequent guidance and order quality, avoiding linear extrapolation of single-day gains.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Robbie Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, stated that Bitcoin's recent rise is closely related to the U.S. $40 trillion debt issue. The U.S. federal debt surpassed $40 trillion on August 18, doubling since 2017, with interest payments nearing $1 trillion, accounting for over 14% of total federal spending. Mitchnick noted that debt and deficit levels are major market concerns, driving investors to view Bitcoin and gold as hedging tools.

2. According to Bloomberg, over the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have attracted a record $7 billion in inflows, with the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) seeing nearly $3.4 billion in inflows and the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) seeing $1.5 billion. Both ranked among the top ten U.S. ETF inflows for the week. Investors are buying both gold and Bitcoin as hedging tools against fiscal anxiety, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announcing an expansion of long-term Treasury buybacks, leading to a weaker dollar and declining yields, boosting demand for scarce assets. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani stated that rising interest rates and high sovereign debt benefit non-dilutable assets like Bitcoin. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio suggested that investors allocate up to 15% of their funds to gold and Bitcoin to hedge against U.S. debt crisis risks. Bitcoin has already surpassed $80,000 this month, and gold has surpassed $4,600 per ounce.

3. Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reach $300,000 by the end of 2029, positioning it as a core asset for the "currency devaluation trade." Additionally, analysts from K33 and Bitwise noted that the recent historical short squeeze in Bitcoin and the macro changes brought about by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's push for debt market intervention may signal a broader bull market reset in the crypto market after months of weakness.

4. Apple confirmed the fall launch event on September 10, with the market focusing on the first foldable iPhone.

5. Meta reached a settlement of up to approximately $18 billion with multiple U.S. states regarding social media cases.

6. According to CoinDesk, the market capitalization of Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD has surpassed $2 billion, with approximately $963 million deployed on the XRP Ledger and about $1.1 billion issued on the Ethereum network. Ripple previously stated that RLUSD will combine with its global payment network to provide more efficient on-chain liquidity solutions for enterprises and financial institutions.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|-----|----|------------|-----| | Focused | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, etc. | ⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Preview

August 27 (Thursday)

1. The U.S. will release initial jobless claims, trade balance, wholesale inventories; Jackson Hole Annual Meeting opens;
2. ★★★ Marvell (MRVL), Ulta, Gap, etc. after-hours.
   August 28 (Friday)
3. ★★★★★ Federal Reserve Chair Waller delivers a keynote speech at Jackson Hole (22:00 Beijing time), with the market focusing on his statements regarding inflation and policy paths;
4. The U.S. will release Chicago PMI, initial value of non-farm employment benchmark revisions, and final value of University of Michigan consumer confidence.

Institutional Views:

Investment bank analysts believe that the hot July PCE keeps the market vigilant about persistent inflation, but Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings and long-term growth guidance significantly repair the AI demand narrative. Trump's statement about no timetable for Iran talks means geopolitical premiums are unlikely to further decline. Storage and optical communication continue to reflect relative strength in bottleneck segments. The crypto market maintains high-level fluctuations under the "devaluation trade" framework. Overall strategy suggestion: treat Waller's speech and Nvidia's guidance fulfillment as short-term core variables, remain flexible on high-valuation growth stocks, while focusing on sub-sectors like power equipment, storage, and optical communication that have supply constraints.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.