outlook

Super Micro Computer's stock rose about 10.4% in pre-market trading, after the company released a revenue outlook for fiscal year 2027 that exceeded market expectations.

BIT Official released a weekly report stating that the trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has fallen by 80% from its peak, and has contracted by about 60% from the peak in the fourth quarter of 2025; the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has also dropped by 50%. The report points out that if the trading volume cannot effectively recover, the market will struggle to form a sustained rebound.Despite the market still digesting the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the stalled progress of the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range between $62,000 and $66,000, and BIT Official expects Bitcoin to eventually break upward. The report states that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh has recently adopted a "say less, do less" communication strategy, and the uncertainty of his policy stance is disturbing the market. Walsh has been known for his hawkish stance over the past twenty years, but the market had previously anticipated that he might push for a more dovish monetary policy under Trump's support; if this change materializes, it could be beneficial for Bitcoin.In addition, predictive market data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law before the end of 2026 is currently only 32%. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Senate will prioritize other issues, and as the August recess approaches, the remaining legislative window for this bill is further narrowing.

According to Coindesk, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stated that the decreased probability of the "Clarity Act" passing in the U.S. Senate this year poses a blow to the crypto market, and warned that further delays could undermine one of the industry's most important regulatory catalysts. JPMorgan noted that, due to the Senate prioritizing other bills before the summer recess, the market currently predicts that the probability of this bill passing before the end of the year is only 37%. Negotiations regarding ethical clauses, enforcement, DeFi, stablecoin yields, and anti-money laundering rules remain stalled.

According to Jinshi, the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell from a revised 92.2 in June to 90.8 in July, below the forecast of 92.3. Households' views on the labor market remain generally weak.The Conference Board's Chief Economist, Dana Peterson, stated that consumer feedback on economic factors in July remained predominantly pessimistic, with a slight increase in mentions of employment and unemployment.

Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode released the report "Charting Crypto Q3 2026," maintaining a neutral outlook on the crypto market.The report shows that on-chain data indicates Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, but the Fed's hawkish stance, weak spot ETF demand, and geopolitical risks continue to pressure the market outlook.

According to Jinshi, European Central Bank Governing Council member Slapin stated that as long as the overall inflation outlook requires it, the European Central Bank may raise interest rates in September even without a second-round effect.

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts stated that the recent increase in cash reserves and positive capital inflows into Bitcoin futures for Strategy are "encouraging signs" for Bitcoin's prospects, although the capital flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains unstable.Strategy's dollar reserves have increased from $2.55 billion to $3 billion, covering approximately 20 months of preferred stock dividends. JPMorgan previously indicated that if Strategy could rebuild sufficient dollar reserves to cover two to three years of dividends, it could alleviate market concerns about the possibility of being forced to sell Bitcoin in the future.Regarding ETFs, the capital flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs has been highly volatile in recent weeks, with inflows last week turning into outflows this week. In contrast, the capital flow for leveraged ETFs related to Strategy has remained stable with continuous positive inflows over the past seven weeks. Analysts believe that this buying pressure mainly comes from retail investors, which may support Strategy's stock price and prevent its common stock from falling below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings. Analysts noted that despite the outflows from the spot ETF this week, Bitcoin futures still recorded positive inflows, which is encouraging.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Logan stated that he is very optimistic about the productivity improvements brought by artificial intelligence in the long term. However, the current demand for AI investment is strong and real, which may bring inflationary pressure in the short term.

Multicoin Capital Managing Partner Tushar Jain stated that the crypto market has bottomed out and entered a turning point, with current market sentiment truly reaching a low. Recent major hacking incidents and other news have not triggered large-scale sell-offs, application adoption rates continue to rise, and prices have become disconnected from fundamentals.He maintains a long-term optimistic view on Solana, believing that SOL is the correct architecture for spot trading and tokenized securities; he is also optimistic about Hyperliquid's leading position in the derivatives space, currently holding significant positions in both. Regarding ZEC, he mentioned that Multicoin has accumulated a considerable proportion of the supply and believes it represents a return to the "crypto-punk" values of the industry, with the potential to enter the top five by market capitalization.In terms of position management, he employs a "three-part method": immediately buying one-third, dollar-cost averaging the second one-third, and keeping the final one-third as flexible funds to respond to major declines. After confirming that no hackers exploited the Zcash code vulnerability incident, the team significantly increased their positions.

According to Jinshi reports, the tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated sharply this week, with mutual attacks leading to the collapse of a fragile ceasefire agreement that had lasted for about three weeks. The inflationary pressure driven by rising oil prices has reignited expectations for the Federal Reserve to tighten its policies. During the same period, U.S. stocks largely ignored geopolitical uncertainties, with the "AI trading" frenzy regaining momentum, as the S&P 500 index approached an all-time high, and both it and the Nasdaq recorded a consecutive weekly gain. SK Hynix's ADR surged 13% on its first day, with a fundraising amount of $26.5 billion, making it the highest fundraising foreign company IPO in U.S. stock market history.In the coming week, the U.S.-Iran situation, U.S. CPI and other economic data, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials will capture Wall Street's attention. There is particular anticipation for whether Federal Reserve Chairman Waller can provide more clues about the interest rate outlook under questioning in Congress, although his determination to cancel forward guidance leaves little room for optimism. The macro data events for next week are as follows:MondayFederal Reserve Governor Waller speaksTuesdayU.S. ADP employment change for the week ending June 27U.S. June CPI and core CPIFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the House Financial Services Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingWednesday2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a fireside chatU.S. June PPI and core PPIFOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams speaksFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingFederal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditionsThursdayU.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, U.S. June retail sales month-on-month, U.S. July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaksFederal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks on the economy and monetary policy

According to Jinshi reports, ING analyst Chris Turner stated that expectations for the European Central Bank to possibly raise interest rates again in September are supporting the euro. He pointed out that tensions between the U.S. and Iran have led to a surge in oil prices, but the euro has shown resilience as the yield spread has narrowed in favor of the euro.However, he also mentioned that the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is a "more dominant theme," which could lead to the euro falling below 1.14 against the dollar.

According to Jinshi reports, Albert Park, Chief Economist of the Asian Development Bank, stated that the end of the ceasefire in the Middle East has darkened the outlook for developing economies in Asia. The escalation of conflict will drive up energy prices, intensify inflationary pressures, and prolong supply chain disruptions, which may tighten global financial conditions, raise imported inflation, and consequently be detrimental to the growth prospects of developing countries in Asia.

According to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 7,800 points, believing that the outlook is approaching a "clear sky" scenario.

According to Jinshi reports, S&P has assigned a "BBB" rating with a stable outlook to the preferred bonds that SpaceX (SPCX.O) plans to issue.

According to Jinshi reports, Moody's has assigned SpaceX a Baa1 rating, which is investment grade, with a stable outlook.

Next week, the market focus will be on the interest rate decisions of several major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Since taking office as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Waller has remained silent, and the press conference following the June interest rate decision will be a key validation of his monetary policy stance. The market also expects him to send clear signals regarding communication mechanism reforms. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are in Beijing time):Monday 15:15, European Central Bank President Lagarde will deliver a speech;Tuesday TBD, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision; 14:30, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will hold a monetary policy press conference;Tuesday 20:15, U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending May 30;Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections summary; 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller will hold a monetary policy press conference;Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, U.S. June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.In terms of policy signals, the market is focused on whether three hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve will materialize: first, whether the wording "the next step is likely to be a rate cut" will be removed from the original policy statement. If this wording is removed, it means the Federal Reserve officially ends its previous easing bias and shifts to a policy tone centered on combating inflation. Second, changes in the dot plot; the March dot plot indicated one more rate cut within the year, but this dot plot is likely to shift to show stable rates, and there may even be a situation where a majority of officials expect rate hikes. Finally, there is a tilt in risk preference. If officials' concerns about inflation significantly increase and worries about the labor market diminish, it may pave the way for subsequent rate hikes.On Friday (June 19), due to the Juneteenth holiday, the New York Stock Exchange will be closed for one day. Trading in precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, stock index, and U.S. Treasury futures contracts on the CME will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 20th, and trading in Brent crude oil futures contracts on the Intercontinental Exchange will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 20th.