The election has ended, and oil prices have plummeted! Will the market's "expectation of ceasefire" be realized?
The Democratic Party achieved a landslide victory in the U.S. midterm elections, triggering a "ceasefire" sentiment in the market, with WTI crude oil plummeting over 9% in a single day. However, Iran's Supreme Leader issued a stern warning, stating that those who believe the election results can change the U.S. position are "gravely mistaken." At the same time, Donald Trump faces three options—military strikes, rapid negotiations, or maintaining the status quo—all of which come with high costs. A dramatic shift in the political landscape may actually lower Trump's willingness to negotiate. The "ceasefire expectations" for oil prices may have overestimated reality.