Bitget UEX Daily Report | Bitcoin Returns to $80,000; Dow Jumps 3%; Crude Oil Plummets Reshaping Inflation Expectations (November 5, 2026)

I. Selected Hot News

U.S. Politics | Democrats Win Control of Both Houses of Congress, Market Reassesses Policy Path

The results of the U.S. midterm elections show that the Democrats have gained control of both the House and Senate, and the Trump administration will face a divided Congress. U.S. stocks rose across the board on that day, but data center, power equipment, and some chip stocks weakened against the trend.

The market is pricing in fiscal expansion constraints, energy policy changes, and AI regulation shifts. The election results clearly help reduce uncertainty, but future policies still need to go through legislative and execution processes, and market expectations cannot be viewed as measures already in effect.

U.S. Economy | ADP Adds 86,000 Jobs, Services Sector Maintains Expansion

In October, ADP reported an addition of 86,000 jobs in the private sector, with September data revised down from 90,000 to 86,000; among them, the services sector added 82,000 jobs, and the goods-producing sector added 4,000 jobs. The October ISM Services PMI was 54.5, down from 54.9 in September, still within the expansion range.

Job growth and service sector expansion continue, which does not support the judgment of a sudden economic recession. The focus will be on initial jobless claims, labor productivity, and Friday's non-farm payrolls to determine whether a cooling demand can coincide with easing inflation.

International Energy | Crude Oil Plummets, Cost-Sensitive Assets Under Scrutiny

Crude oil fell sharply in trading on November 4, with the WTI December contract at $87.79 per barrel and the Brent January 2027 contract at $94.56 per barrel. The market's reassessment of U.S. policy changes and the outlook for the Iran conflict is a key trading clue.

The drop in oil prices helps alleviate transportation and production costs and may reduce future inflation pressure; however, the earnings expectations of energy producers face pressure. Supply and diplomatic progress have not yet fully settled, and it is necessary to distinguish between price changes driven by expectations and actual supply improvements.

II. Market Review

Commodity and Forex Performance

Item | Reference Price | Data Source

Gold | $4,122.00 per ounce | December 2026 futures, 09:15 intra-day

Silver | $52.790 per ounce | December 2026 futures, 09:15 intra-day

WTI Crude Oil | $87.79 per barrel | December 2026 contract, 09:15 intra-day

Brent Crude Oil | $94.56 per barrel | January 2027 contract, 09:15 intra-day

U.S. Dollar Index DXY | 101.314 | 09:15 intra-day

Gold and oil prices diverged, with a weaker dollar and falling U.S. Treasury yields providing support for precious metals, while oil primarily reflects a repricing of supply risk premiums. If oil prices remain low, it will help alleviate inflation constraints; however, whether precious metals can continue to rise depends on real interest rates and capital demand.

Cryptocurrency Performance

BTC is at 80,465.19 USDT, up 4.26% in 24 hours; ETH is at 2,415.76 USDT, up 6.38% in 24 hours. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is approximately $2.71 trillion, up 1.13% in 24 hours, with the total market cap update time at 09:15 Beijing time.

BTC/ETH Liquidation Zone: Today's major potential liquidation zones for both coins have not obtained verifiable latest data, and specific ranges, distances, and near-side risk assessments are currently lacking, so the conclusions from the old chart are not used.

Institutional Holding Cost | BTC: Strategy's latest disclosure on November 2 indicates that the overall holding average price is $75,451, holding 849,327 BTC, with the current coin price approximately 6.58% higher than its cost, corresponding to a reference floating profit. Glassnode's estimate of the overall cost of the U.S. spot BTC ETF published on October 28 is approximately $81,500, with the current coin price still about 1.33% lower, corresponding to a reference floating loss; this cost estimate retains the original disclosure date and is not considered an update for today.

In a nutshell: After BTC returned to $80,000, the focus is on whether it can hold this integer level and further approach the historical cost reference of $81,500 for the ETF; ETH's larger increase reflects the elasticity of this rebound, but its sustainability still requires verification from spot demand and subsequent capital flows.

Major U.S. Stock Index Performance

Index | Closing Level | Change

Dow Jones Industrial Average | 53,356.12 | +3.03%

S&P 500 Index | 7,688.62 | +1.58%

NASDAQ Composite Index | 25,736.51 | +1.44%

The Dow led the gains, and the market's upward range expanded, but the index performance masked the obvious divergence within the AI industry chain. Large platforms and infrastructure suppliers have different profit models, and their stock prices may move in opposite directions when facing changes in construction pace.

Performance of the Seven Tech Giants

Company | Closing Price (USD) | Change

NVIDIA NVDA | 200.13 | -3.17%

Apple AAPL | 349.51 | +5.31%

Microsoft MSFT | 555.80 | +6.68%

Alphabet GOOGL | 288.93 | +3.18%

Amazon AMZN | 266.03 | +6.12%

Meta META | 630.00 | +1.44%

Tesla TSLA | 385.19 | -3.34%

Five out of the seven giants rose while two fell, with Microsoft and Amazon leading the gains, while NVIDIA and Tesla declined. Market attention has increased on the cash flow and capital expenditures of platform companies; AI demand remains, but "selling computing power devices" and "monetizing computing power" are no longer uniformly priced.

Sector Movement Observations

AI Infrastructure Under Pressure: Vertiv fell 12.89%, GE Vernova fell 9.30%, Micron fell 7.00%. The market is concerned that future data center construction will face more constraints, and subsequent checks on orders, project approvals, and customer capital expenditures are necessary; one cannot infer that orders have been canceled solely based on stock prices.

Cryptocurrency-Related Stocks Rebound: Strategy rose 5.09%, Coinbase rose 4.16%, Robinhood rose 2.02%, coinciding with the rebound in cryptocurrency spot prices. The stock side also includes operational leverage, valuation, and financing factors, so it should not be directly equated with BTC's price fluctuations.

III. In-Depth Analysis of Key U.S. Stocks

Circle CRCL | Revenue Growth Includes Token Pre-Sale Contribution

Event Overview: Circle reported total revenue and reserve revenue of approximately $865 million in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 17%; among them, reserve revenue was approximately $658 million, down 8% year-on-year, with ARC token pre-sale contributing about $182 million in revenue. The stock closed at $76.12, up 1.20%.

Market Interpretation: The simultaneous occurrence of total revenue growth and reserve revenue decline indicates a change in the source of growth, and token pre-sale revenue cannot be directly viewed as a sustained growth rate of stablecoin interest business.

Investment Insight: Future attention should be paid to the scale of USDC, distribution costs, and whether payment and service revenue outside of token-related income can continue to grow.

Arm ARM | Strong Licensing Revenue, Focus on Delivery Fulfillment

Event Overview: Arm announced on November 4 that its revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027 was approximately $1.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27%; licensing and other revenue was $773 million, a year-on-year increase of 50%, with royalty revenue at $670 million. The regular closing price was $191.80, down 5.28%; regular session performance does not represent post-market earnings report reactions.

Market Interpretation: The growth in licensing revenue provides clues about demand, with data center royalties doubling year-on-year; however, there is a time lag between licensing pace and future chip shipments and royalty fulfillment.

Investment Insight: Track the conversion from licensing to royalties and the progress of self-developed Arm AGI CPU commercial deliveries to assess whether the expansion of revenue structure can bring sustained profits.

Qualcomm QCOM | Mobile Business Under Pressure, Non-Mobile Business Enters Fulfillment Period

Event Overview: Qualcomm reported GAAP revenue of $10.322 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, down 8% year-on-year; non-GAAP earnings per share were $2.17, down 28% year-on-year. The company reiterated its data center revenue target of $5 billion for fiscal year 2027. The regular closing price was $173.19, up 5.33%, occurring before the earnings report release.

Market Interpretation: Expansion in automotive and data center sectors provides new growth paths, but pressure on the core mobile business has not disappeared, and new businesses need to compensate for changes in existing profit sources.

Investment Insight: Focus on the ramp-up of data center projects, growth rates, and profit margins of non-mobile businesses, distinguishing between target guidance and realized revenue.

IV. Market and Project Dynamics

Circle Plans to Acquire Tazapay to Expand Cross-Border Payment Network. The company disclosed that it has signed a final agreement to acquire this Singapore-based B2B cross-border payment platform, expected to be completed by 2027, still subject to regulatory approval. This transaction is expected to expand local payment coverage, but since the deal has not yet closed, the target payment scale cannot be directly counted into Circle's current business volume.

Glassnode Updates On-Chain Observations, Rebound Still Requires External Capital Verification. The November 4 weekly report noted that as of November 2, the net outflow of the U.S. spot BTC ETF in the past two weeks was close to $1 billion, with spot trading volume still above levels prior to the recent rise. This report's timing is earlier than this morning's market, reflecting the background of capital structure and should not be treated as the single-day ETF result for November 4.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Beijing Time | Country/Region | Event | Market Attention Level

20:00 | United Kingdom | Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes | ★★★★★

21:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Claims | ★★★★

21:30 | United States | Preliminary Labor Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for Q3 | ★★★★

23:00 | United States | Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Update | ★★★

Key Event Outlook: The Bank of England's decision will impact the British pound and global interest rate trading; U.S. data will focus on employment resilience and unit labor costs. The sharp drop in oil prices has improved inflation expectations, but only with wages, productivity, and service prices working together can more solid evidence of inflation easing be formed.

Institutional View: Glassnode's November 4 weekly report suggests that current trading is more inclined towards the internal flow of funds within the cryptocurrency market between assets and platforms, with limited new funds from traditional investors. This means that beyond price rebounds, it is also necessary to observe whether ETFs and spot transactions form sustained demand.

This article is for market information exchange only and does not constitute investment advice.