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According to Jinshi reports, U.S. interest rate futures indicate that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by January next year exceeds 50%.

According to CNBC, SpaceX plans to publicly release its IPO prospectus as early as next week, aiming to start a global roadshow on June 8 to formally introduce the deal to investors. The company secretly submitted its IPO application in April this year. This IPO is expected to become the largest in history. In February this year, SpaceX completed a merger with Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company xAI, resulting in a post-merger entity valuation of $1.25 trillion. Reports indicate that the company's target fundraising scale for the IPO is about $70 billion to $75 billion, more than double the record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. The expected valuation for the SpaceX IPO has risen from $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. According to regulations, the prospectus must be made public at least 15 calendar days before the roadshow begins, but SpaceX and its advisors hope to disclose it earlier to give investors more time to digest the financial data. Due to the unprecedented scale of this stock sale, SpaceX's advisory team is seeking special sales channels, particularly targeting retail investors outside the U.S. who prefer long-term holdings, including engaging with brokers in countries such as the UK, Japan, and Canada to secure allocation shares for their clients. As a result of this news, satellite and space concept stocks like Redwire, AST SpaceMobile, and Rocket Lab surged by 22.08%, 10.96%, and 6.77% respectively on the 14th.

On the last day of the evidence-gathering phase of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, a Microsoft executive revealed in court that by June 2026, Microsoft's total investment in OpenAI (including investment commitments, infrastructure, and computing power hosting costs) will exceed $100 billion.Reports indicate that this figure is significantly higher than the previously understood cash investment scale of $13 billion, marking the first disclosure of the overall costs Microsoft has incurred in supporting OpenAI in terms of underlying computing power and infrastructure. Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott also confirmed that during the early setup of their first supercomputer, they deployed tens of thousands of GPUs in a single instance.Furthermore, after Microsoft and OpenAI concluded their evidence presentation, Musk's team chose to forgo the rebuttal phase, officially ending the three-week evidence-gathering stage, with the court expected to enter the closing arguments phase on Thursday.

According to Jinshi reports, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by more than 2%, the ChiNext Index rose by 2.9%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.9%.

According to Jinshi reports, the ChiNext Index rose over 1% at the beginning of trading, the Shenzhen Component Index rose nearly 1%, and the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.4%.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again released information related to the Bitcoin Tracker.According to previous patterns, Strategy always discloses information about increasing Bitcoin holdings on the day after relevant news is released.

Matthew Sigel, the head of digital asset research at VanEck, stated in an interview with CNBC that he expects Bitcoin to reach its historical high again within the next 12 months. He pointed out that the current correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq is close to a five-year high, and the resilience of the U.S. stock market has driven this round of rebound. However, the derivatives market still lacks significant optimism, with the futures and options markets reflecting more short covering and hedging demand. Therefore, from a contrarian perspective, there may still be room for the market to continue.Matthew Sigel also mentioned that this year, a central bank has announced it will include Bitcoin in its foreign exchange reserves, which means BTC is gradually turning into a global asset used for large cross-border transaction settlements. He believes this is a major trend. In terms of investment direction, he is more optimistic about the increase in Bitcoin's market share and Bitcoin mining companies benefiting from the trend of AI integration. He stated that mining companies are becoming important beneficiaries of AI infrastructure, and as AI business grows, the pressure on mining companies to sell BTC for fundraising is decreasing. Additionally, Matthew Sigel believes that if the CLARITY Act is passed, it could reignite sentiment in the altcoin market, but currently, institutional investors remain cautious about most altcoins due to regulatory and investor protection issues.

According to Jinshi reports, this week, significant signs of peace have emerged in the US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, greatly easing geopolitical risks. Next week, it is worth paying close attention to whether these two geopolitical conflicts can further cool down. In addition, next week's macro events will focus on the US April CPI data, as detailed below:Tuesday 15:15, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion on monetary policy;Tuesday 20:15, US ADP employment change for the week ending April 25;Tuesday 20:30, US April CPI data;Wednesday 04:30, US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 8;Wednesday 20:30, US April PPI year-on-year and month-on-month;Friday 05:30, Fed Governor Barr will deliver a speech;Friday 21:15, US April industrial production month-on-month.Finally, next week the Federal Reserve will undergo significant personnel changes. Nominee Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to be confirmed by the Senate on Monday and will officially take over from Powell on May 15.In terms of US stocks, as of this Friday, a new round of surges has pushed the S&P 500 index up 8% cumulatively in 2026, continuing to rise on the basis of achieving double-digit returns for three consecutive years. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has risen nearly 13% year-to-date, with both major indices reaching all-time highs. Although the first quarter earnings season is nearing its end, corporate reports will still be a key driver of stock prices in the coming days.AI

"Cathie Wood" posted on the X platform, stating that despite the rise in oil prices over the past three months, the yield curve remains flat, and the Federal Reserve has not monetized this energy shock. The bond market may begin to digest the deflationary effects brought about by AI and technology-driven productivity improvements. Currently, the costs of AI model training and inference have significantly decreased, productivity growth is accelerating, while unit labor costs remain subdued.Although the current market narrative focuses on tariffs, deficits, and structurally high inflation, underlying signals indicate that deflationary forces related to innovation are accumulating. It is expected that inflation may be below expectations in the next 6 to 9 months, which will have profound effects on interest rates and long-term stocks.

According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, multiple industry insiders have revealed that the Senate Banking Committee may notify about the review of the CLARITY Act as early as tomorrow and has distributed the legislative draft text to some industry members, with a vote expected next Thursday.Insiders stated that the language of the draft is still being finalized, and additional revisions are anticipated to reflect the priorities of the Democratic office. One insider, after reviewing the bill and coordinating with industry leaders, indicated that the overall atmosphere is currently positive, but some terms in parentheses have raised concerns, and some key provisions that were previously thought to be resolved may still be subject to change.

Kara Calvert, Vice President of U.S. Policy at Coinbase, stated that the CLARITY Act could enter the review stage in the U.S. Senate Banking Committee as early as next week. Calvert said at the Consensus 2026 conference, "My prediction is that we will be reviewing it next week." She pointed out that the bill needs at least 60 votes in the Senate to pass and requires bipartisan support to officially become law.She stated, "This means you need Democrats. You need a bipartisan-supported bill, and we have been working very hard to ensure that bipartisan cooperation can be maintained. I think the biggest question is how the votes will shape up in the coming days." A survey released by HarrisX on Thursday showed strong, broad, and consistent demand for clear federal rules. More than 70% of voters said the U.S. should have already passed clear cryptocurrency legislation, and 62% said it is important for the U.S. to set global rules for digital finance. Calvert also mentioned that the lack of consistent tax policy is a major "barrier" to institutional adoption of cryptocurrency, adding that tax reform is a bigger issue for institutions than market structure legislation.

Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett revealed that according to the latest polls in the United States, the issue of supporting cryptocurrency market structure legislation crosses party lines, with 52% of voters in favor of the bill and only 11% opposed. The Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill (the CLARITY Act) has received majority support from Democrats, Republicans, and independents, highlighting the widespread demand among voters for clearer rules and enhanced consumer protection for digital assets, while preparing for a key vote in the Senate Banking Committee next week.

According to market news, Moon Kyung-ho, head of the Income Tax Division of the Ministry of Economy and Finance of South Korea, stated at an emergency meeting on the taxation of virtual assets that the government will proceed with the taxation of virtual assets as originally planned starting January 1 next year. This is the first time the Ministry of Economy and Finance has publicly expressed its stance on the issue of virtual asset taxation.According to the current income tax law, income generated from the transfer or lending of virtual assets will be classified as other income, with a tax rate of 22% applicable to virtual asset income exceeding 2.5 million won (20% other income tax plus 2% local income tax). The tax targets approximately 13.26 million investors. Head Moon revealed that the National Tax Service is formulating relevant announcements and has had multiple discussions with the five major virtual asset operators, expecting to conduct legislative announcements soon.

Glassnode's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has broken through the real market average ($78,200) and the cost price for short-term holders ($79,100). If it can maintain this range for the next week, the "deep value phase" since 2026 may become the shortest in Bitcoin's history.The next key resistance level in the current market is around $85,200. On-chain data shows that the 30-day net realized profit and loss average has turned positive to 0.003% of the market cap, and long-term holders have realized profits rising to $180 million daily, but this is still significantly lower than the over $1 billion level during the peak of this cycle.However, the market has realized losses still amounting to $479 million daily, which is 140% higher than the stable range of this cycle. Glassnode believes that it needs to continuously fall below $200 million to confirm a healthier demand recovery.In terms of capital, the 30-day net inflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has turned positive again, indicating that institutional demand is recovering. At the same time, the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative during the upward process, suggesting that market short positions are still heavy. If shorts continue to be squeezed, it may further drive prices up.Additionally, there is a concentration of about $2 billion in "Short Gamma" positions around $82,000, and market makers' hedging behavior may amplify price volatility. Glassnode believes that the overall trend for Bitcoin remains strong, but the market has entered a more sensitive phase. If there is a lack of sustained spot buying support, there may be significant selling pressure around $85,000.

According to Cointelegraph, on-chain indicators such as the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) show that the BTC price still has room to rise, with the next key target at $92,000. This rebound has pushed Bitcoin above its short-term holder cost basis, which is currently at $79,000. The short-term holder cost basis refers to the average purchase price of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days.Historically, breaking through this level has pushed the market into an extended recovery phase, incentivizing investors to hold or even increase their positions to maximize returns. This shift is often a catalyst that ignites a macro uptrend, attracting new buyers and triggering short squeezes, while shorts remain in a state of disbelief.Charts show that when the price recovers its realized price in April 2025, it rises 30% within weeks, heading towards the upper boundary of the indicator at $112,000. Similar situations in October 2024, October 2023, and January 2023 also pushed BTC prices to the same on-chain level. If BTC breaks this line, there is a high probability it will rise to $92,423 in the short term