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Analysis: The cryptocurrency market is cautious ahead of the U.S. April CPI release, with XRP and SOL once again facing key resistance levels

According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market has temporarily stalled before the release of the U.S. April CPI data. Bitcoin has recently been oscillating in the range of $80,000 to $82,000, failing to effectively break through since last Wednesday.The market believes that although capital flows still indicate a potential for a subsequent breakthrough, inflation and macro risks are suppressing risk appetite. The U.S. will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. FactSet data shows that the market expects the April CPI to rise year-on-year to 3.7%, up from 3.3% in March. If the forecast is realized, it will mark the largest increase since January 2024 and is significantly higher than the average of 2.7% over the past 12 months. The core CPI is expected to rise year-on-year to 2.7%, up from the previous value of 2.6%.Analysts are concerned that if the inflation data exceeds expectations against the backdrop of high oil prices and Trump's statement that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is "extremely fragile," it may further trigger market risk aversion, dragging down the performance of risk assets.Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at FXTM, stated that the current market is entering a sensitive phase where geopolitical issues, inflation risks, and central bank expectations are intertwined. High oil prices, uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran, and key U.S. economic data may lead to increased volatility in commodities, exchange rates, and global stock markets.In addition to macro factors, XRP and SOL are also approaching key supply zones again. XRP tested $1.50 today but has failed to break through this level multiple times since February of this year; SOL is once again nearing the resistance level around $97.Meanwhile, institutional interest in related assets is heating up. The U.S. spot XRP ETF recorded a net inflow of $25.8 million on Monday, reaching a new high since January 5; Bitcoin and Solana ETFs also maintained net inflows, while the Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $16.9 million.

Bitcoin ETF ends nine consecutive days of net inflow, market turns cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting

Bitcoin fell below $77,000, with the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recording a net outflow of $263.2 million, ending a nine-day streak of net inflows. This coincided with the eve of this week's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, adding a touch of caution to the already resilient April rebound.Bitcoin declined today, but it has still risen about 15% over the past month, reaching a high of $79,000 in April. The interruption of ETF fund momentum is significant because it occurs just before a week of major macroeconomic events. The market is currently digesting the Federal Reserve's decisions, new inflation concerns, GDP data, a series of earnings reports from major tech companies, and another round of interest rate decisions from central banks in Europe and Asia.Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, stated that the crypto market entered this week with inspiring momentum, but there are too many cross factors to determine a clean risk appetite trend. In his view, investors are showing signs of "war fatigue" regarding the situation in the Middle East, while central banks are forced to find a balance between supply-driven inflation and weakening confidence along with mixed data.Glassnode expressed a similar view in its latest weekly pulse report. Analysts noted that Bitcoin still exhibits a "mix of bullish momentum, cautious sentiment, and consolidation," with strong buying pressure offset by weaker speculative participation and lower trading activity.QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin had a significant rebound in April, maintaining an overall constructive pattern. However, the firm believes that $82,000 remains a key level, with the nearby CME gap constituting the next real test.Andy Baehr, managing director at GSR Asset Management, mentioned that prices are "gradually rising," and $80,000 remains a key psychological level.

Report: The new round of Bitcoin bull market may be more enduring, the industry's "best stage is still ahead"

Research institution Bernstein's latest report states that as Bitcoin approaches the $80,000 mark, the cryptocurrency market is entering a new phase of structural growth. This cycle may last longer than previous ones and has "asymmetric upside potential." The report points out that the previous drop to $60,000 has formed a temporary bottom, and the market is being driven by the integration of institutional funds and the traditional financial system.Analyst Gautam Chhugani stated, "The best times for the crypto industry are still ahead, which will be reflected in a higher and more sustained bull market cycle." In terms of supply structure, about 60% of Bitcoin has not been transferred for over a year, indicating an increase in the proportion of long-term holders; at the same time, ETFs and corporate balance sheet allocations continue to absorb supply. Strategy currently holds approximately 818,000 BTC, and its yield-generating products are attracting more traditional funds.On the institutional channel front, Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab are expanding Bitcoin ETF and spot trading access, further lowering investment thresholds. Fundamentally, the supply of stablecoins has surpassed $300 billion, and the demand for real payments and settlements has increased; the tokenization scale of real-world assets (RWA) has reached $345 billion, a year-on-year increase of 110%. Additionally, platforms like Hyperliquid are driving increased activity in on-chain stock and commodity trading.The report also warns that quantum computing poses a long-term potential risk to crypto security, but it is manageable in the short term, and the industry has ample time to transition to quantum-resistant standards.
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