probability

According to Polymarket data, in the "Next CEO of NVIDIA" prediction market, the probability of the "No Change" option for Jensen Huang has risen from 19% earlier today to 29%, ranking first. NVIDIA's Vice President of High-Performance Computing Ian Buck has dropped to second place with 25%, while Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress ranks third with 23.3%.According to the rules, "No Change" means that NVIDIA has not announced an official successor before 23:59 Eastern Time on December 31, 2028, and interim CEOs do not count. Therefore, even if Jensen Huang steps down, as long as NVIDIA appoints only an interim CEO within the deadline, this option can still prevail. The 29% is the implied probability of "no official successor announced," not the probability of Jensen Huang staying on in the short term.

According to Cointelegraph, the market believes there is a 100% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. CME FedWatch data shows a 90.8% probability of a 25 basis point increase and a 9.2% probability of a 50 basis point increase. The total of these two probabilities adds up to 100%, corresponding to the market's pricing outcome for the interest rate hike in December.

On the prediction market platform Polymarket, the market regarding whether NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will announce his resignation or be dismissed before a specific date showed that the probability once rose to about 91%, but has now fallen to 78%.As of the time of publication, the total trading volume of this series of markets is approximately $15.25 million. Pricing by different deadlines: about 59% for November 12, about 63% for November 13, about 74% for November 30, about 78% for December 31; about 82% for March 31, 2027, and about 86% for December 31, 2027.

According to Polymarket data, in the market "Who will be the next CEO of NVIDIA?", the current NVIDIA Vice President of Large Scale and High Performance Computing Ian Buck is currently in the lead with a 30% probability, followed by NVIDIA Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress at 21%, and the probability of Jensen Huang remaining the current CEO is 19%.Among the other options, Arm Holdings CEO Rene Haas currently has an 11% probability, NVIDIA Executive Vice President and Global Field Operations Head Jay Puri has 9%, AMD Chair and CEO Lisa Su has 3%, and NVIDIA Senior Director of Product and Technology Marketing for Physical AI Platform Madison Huang has 2%.

Derive option pricing shows that the probability of Bitcoin closing below $70,000 on Christmas has risen from 15% last week to 31%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the "Sunderland vs Chelsea" event currently ranks high in trading activity on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative pool size reaching 5.0753 million USD. The option with the highest market consensus is "Chelsea," corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 51.5%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the "Federal Reserve December Decision" event is currently the most traded on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative fund pool size reaching 150 million dollars. The option with the highest market consensus is "an interest rate hike of 25 basis points," corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 64.5%.

According to Decrypt, Bitcoin developer Matt Corallo stated on the MARA Foundation TV program that he estimates there is an 80% chance that the next soft fork of the Bitcoin network will be the "Big Consensus Cleanup" (BIP-54).This proposal was introduced in 2019 and aims to fix four long-standing vulnerabilities in Bitcoin's consensus rules, including issues related to the difficulty adjustment mechanism and denial-of-service attack vectors among miners.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Winner of the South Carolina Senate Election" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Annie Andrews (D)" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 63.5% an hour ago to the current 97.9% (a fluctuation of 34.4%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

JoAnne Bianco, Senior Investment Strategist at BondBloxx Asset Management, stated that if labor market data weakens, consumer demand slows, or financial conditions tighten, it may reduce the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.Current money market pricing shows a 74% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December.

JPMorgan conducted a scenario analysis on four potential congressional power combinations following the U.S. midterm elections. Among them, the probability of the Democratic Party winning control of both the House and Senate is the highest at 66%; the Republican Party's chance of retaining both chambers is only 7%, but this corresponds to the largest expected increase in the S&P 500 index among the four scenarios. In the scenario where the Democratic Party controls both chambers, the S&P 500 index could drop by 0.25% or rise by 0.5%. Concerns about stricter AI regulations and restrictions on data center construction may trigger a sell-off in AI concept stocks.JPMorgan believes that even if legislation restricting the development of the AI industry is passed by Congress, it would be difficult to gather enough votes to override Trump's presidential veto. Therefore, it suggests that traders consider buying during pullbacks in tech stocks. Fiscal deficit spending may decrease, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields could face downward pressure. Some corporate executives associated with Trump's political donations may face greater risks of congressional investigations. The probability of the Democratic Party controlling the House and the Republican Party controlling the Senate is 26%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.5% to 1%. The market may welcome the legislative stalemate brought about by the distribution of power, leading to a potential decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, although some companies and their leaders may still face congressional inquiries.In the scenario where the Republican Party retains both chambers, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 1% to 1.25%. The market would not have to immediately face new congressional regulatory risks, and the additional policy pressures on tech companies would also be relatively limited; however, fiscal deficit spending may further increase, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher, and Trump may continue military actions against Iran. The probability of the Republican Party controlling the House and the Democratic Party controlling the Senate is 1%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.25% to 0.75%. A split Congress could lead to more intense budget battles, potentially resulting in a federal government shutdown, and the Democratic Party could still conduct congressional investigations after gaining control of the Senate.

The prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are optimistic about the Democratic Party controlling both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. Polymarket gives a 78% probability, with related market trading volume exceeding $58 million; Kalshi gives a 74% probability, with related contract trading volume exceeding $100 million.The individual Senate district markets on both platforms also favor Democratic candidates: James Talarico has a winning probability of 74% to 76% in Texas, Troy Jackson has 73% in Maine, and Abdul El-Sayed has 78% in Michigan. Traditional polls also indicate that the Democratic Party may experience a "blue wave."Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that this election is the first prediction market election, with related betting transactions exceeding $1.4 billion. However, the platform previously failed to predict Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's victory in the runoff, and its impact on voter behavior and electoral credibility is also under scrutiny.

Menlo Ventures partner Deedy Das utilized Harmonic data to analyze 8,525 U.S. startups founded between 2019 and 2026, examining 63 founder background characteristics to compare which individuals are more likely to receive lead investment from top venture capital firms in seed or Series A rounds.The results showed that founders with experience at top VC firms had a 2.83 times higher chance of securing lead investment compared to others with similar conditions, ranking first. Founders who had worked in cutting-edge AI laboratories and those with backgrounds in the cybersecurity industry had chances of 2.16 times and 2.03 times, respectively. A background from top universities provided a 1.41 times chance, while former Google employees had a 1.29 times chance. Former VC employees include not only investors but also resident entrepreneurs, researchers, and interns, some of whom incubated projects within the fund.The study also listed several negatively correlated factors. Founders with an MBA degree had a lead investment chance ratio of 0.65; being educated in China had a ratio of 0.59; and if the oldest founder in the team was over 50 years old, the ratio was 0.57.

According to Fidelity's statistics, since 1938, the probability of the S&P 500 index recording an increase in the 12 months following the U.S. midterm elections is 95%, with an average return of about 14%. In contrast, the average return in the second year of a presidential term (i.e., midterm election year) is only about 5%.Additionally, statistics from several institutions show that after 19 midterm elections since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen in all cases in the following 12 months, with an average increase of about 15%. The weakest increase was about 1% after 1986, while the strongest was about 33% after 1954. It only declined by about 5% after 1938 and remained basically flat after 1946.The upcoming U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3. So far this year, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 11%, with the maximum drawdown of about 9%, which is about half of the average drawdown in midterm election years, showing stronger performance than historical norms. Fidelity points out that this pattern is not related to which party wins, but past performance does not guarantee future results.

As the market lowers its bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, the prices of federal funds futures have risen, and the market's pricing probability for a rate hike in December by the Federal Reserve has dropped to about 70%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the "Winning Party in the House of Representatives in 2026" event on the prediction market Polymarket is currently among the hottest trading topics, with a cumulative fund pool size reaching 309 million dollars. The option with the highest market consensus is "Democratic Party," corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 92.5%.

The market maintains a pricing of a 90% probability for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December.

The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on the 29th. The market generally expects the federal funds rate target range to remain unchanged at 3.75%--4.00%, with a probability of maintaining the status quo at over 90%. The wording of the statement and whether Chair Waller's press conference will release more hawkish signals, as well as how this will affect the market's significantly priced probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, have become the focus of attention.Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Credit Agricole all expect a pause in October and a 25 basis point hike in December. Goldman Sachs stated that if rate hikes continue every other meeting through 2027, a hike in March may be considered, but the baseline forecast does not expect a hike in March. Citigroup mentioned that if the stock market continues to weaken, leading to a sharp tightening of financial conditions, the likelihood of a shift to rate cuts will significantly increase. Moody's believes there will not and should not be another rate hike this week. Nomura Securities expects no change in October and stated that while the Federal Reserve guides expectations for a pause, it retains flexibility for a rate hike in December.TD Securities expects no change in October and anticipates two more hikes in December and March. Huatai Securities expects no change in October, with two hawkish voters possibly casting dissenting votes, with the baseline scenario being one rate hike in December this year and two hikes next year. Morgan Stanley expects a 25 basis point hike in both December and March next year. Bank of New York Mellon expects rates to peak slightly above 4.5%. Bank of America believes there is ample reason to raise rates in October; if they remain unchanged, they will only retain one option for a future hike.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market Polymarket for the event "Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays," the option "Tampa Bay Rays" in the sub-market "First 5 Innings Spread -1.5" experienced a drastic fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 27.5% an hour ago to the current 12% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.