basis

According to Unfolded, citing CFTC position report data, as of November 3, the net short position of leveraged funds in CME standard Bitcoin futures has decreased to 12,955 BTC, down 89% from the peak of 115,985 BTC on December 17, 2024, marking the lowest level since February 2023, indicating that hedge funds have significantly closed their Bitcoin basis trades.Unfolded stated that the arbitrage buying that previously boosted ETF inflows has essentially disappeared, and the capital flow into spot ETFs will more reflect genuine directional demand, with structural buying that can act as a buffer during price declines also decreasing.

Glassnode posted on platform X that Bitcoin has fallen below the short-term holder cost price of $75,600, underperforming compared to U.S. stocks, and the funds that could drive its rise are continuously flowing out. Currently, about 35% of short-term holders are in profit, with sellers averaging small losses.In terms of capital, the total supply of stablecoins has decreased by $14.2 billion over the past 30 days, marking the fastest contraction since June 2022; the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of $1.6 billion over the past 20 trading days; excluding the impact of USDT falling below $1, the 30-day average premium on Coinbase has remained negative, with the discount being the deepest since February. On the macro front, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.75%, which is 75 basis points higher than the current 4% rate of the Federal Reserve, indicating that the bond market expects further rate hikes, but it is far from the level of 244 basis points in June 2022.However, there are also positive signals, as the decline has cleared most of the long leverage near the price, with the largest concentration of liquidations located between $59,500 and $62,600; since the sell-off on November 5, buy orders within a 5% price range in the Binance and Coinbase spot order books have consistently outnumbered sell orders; wallets holding between 100 to 1,000 BTC and 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have started to accumulate over the past week.Glassnode stated that if it returns to $75,600, it will support the judgment of a trend reversal in August; if it continues to fall below $73,000, it may enter a longer period of consolidation; if it closes below the June low of $58,500, the trend reversal since August will be broken.

After the CPI data was released, the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds expanded its gains, with the latest 10-year Treasury yield rising by 9.03 basis points to 4.952%.The latest 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 16.54 basis points to 4.715%.

After the speech by Federal Reserve Governor Waller, the market has further increased its bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, and it has now fully priced in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in December.Waller stated that even if the October CPI improves compared to September, it will still support a 25 basis point rate hike in December. If the October core CPI rises around 0.3% or higher, the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates by 50 basis points in December.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that even if the October CPI improves compared to September, it will still support a 25 basis point rate hike in December. If the October core CPI rises by around 0.3% or higher, the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates by 50 basis points in December.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the "Federal Reserve December Decision" event is currently the most traded on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative fund pool size reaching 150 million dollars. The option with the highest market consensus is "an interest rate hike of 25 basis points," corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 64.5%.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., the price of Bitcoin is testing the cost basis of short-term holders (STH), with the accompanying image indicating that this level is around $75,900.He believes that the market's reaction to the Binance hacking incident has been relatively restrained; compared to the market reaction during the FTX collapse, Bitcoin is currently showing greater resilience.

Federal Reserve's Logan stated that the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates at least two more times, each by 25 basis points.

Federal Reserve's Logan stated that after a 50 basis point rate hike, it would be reasonable to pause further rate increases to determine what additional actions are appropriate.

The automated market-making protocol Yield Basis, founded by Curve founder Michael Egorov, announced the launch of a permissionless propAMM, aiming to upgrade its liquidity mechanism on Curve. This design combines market perception pricing with dynamic fees, aiming to increase trading volume, reduce arbitrage losses, and improve liquidity provider returns. According to its simulations over the past 18 months, Yield Basis's WETH position is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 8.5% in ETH terms under the new design, compared to 3.6% under existing parameters.Officials stated that WETH liquidity providers do not need to take additional actions, as the new design will directly affect their respective liquidity pools. The small transaction fee for pulling the pool price back to the market price is 0.50%, and anyone can submit prices or deposit funds, with the relevant code being open source. The WETH pool will be deployed first, and Bitcoin-related liquidity pools will follow after the successful deployment of the WETH pool.According to the announcement, the liquidity pool will charge based on the profits earned by arbitrageurs from trades, retaining about two-thirds of the profits above the minimum fee. The new design features lower single transaction fees, with simulated trading volumes approaching three times the current levels, requiring donations of about one-quarter of the current amount. The Yield Basis DAO owns the strategy, and the Curve Emergency DAO can shut it down in emergencies, while the Curve liquidity pool contract itself remains unchanged. Curve DAO vote 1508 will connect the strategy to the WETH pool and set the reserved profit ratio, while Yield Basis vote 60 will set the LevAMM fee at 1.5% (currently 1.3%), with the donation rate being about 1.2% of the pool value per year (currently about 5%). The above simulations only include arbitrage exchanges and do not account for regular trading and liquidation.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that short-term holders of Bitcoin (STH) have been in a profitable state on average for nearly two months, with an estimated cost basis of $76,500 and a current average profit margin of about 5.5%. Compared to less than a month ago when unrealized profits averaged as high as 20%, this level has significantly narrowed.The last time short-term holders had such high profits was shortly before the peak in October 2025, so the subsequent market consolidation is not surprising. Darkfost believes that short-term holder profits are still present, and the cost basis of $76,500 remains a noteworthy support level, with short-term holders likely to intervene here to defend the average entry price.

According to Jinshi citing CNBC analysis, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at this meeting, but further deterioration of inflation may force it to tighten more in the coming months.TD Securities stated that if subsequent inflation data is significantly high, or if the labor market remains strong, the market may raise expectations for the Federal Reserve to implement a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points at future meetings.

Bitget, in collaboration with Reality and Keyring, has released a research report exploring the synergy mechanisms of tokenized stocks, perpetual contracts, and decentralized lending, and evaluating the potential returns and risks of related strategies through simulation calculations. The report points out that the application of tokenized stocks is extending from traditional stock trading to more scenarios such as collateralized lending, asset management, and systematic investment strategies.The research is based on Reality's rToken, combined with stock perpetual contract hedging and on-chain lending mechanisms, to explore stock basis yield strategies. Historical simulation data shows that from December 15, 2025, to October 19, 2026, the annualized net return of the strategy index is approximately 7% and 4% for in-sample and out-of-sample, respectively, with a gross funding cost rate premium of about 11% to 14%. The report also notes that financing costs, transaction execution fees, market liquidity, and risk management are key factors affecting the actual returns of the strategy.It is reported that Bitget and Keyring plan to jointly develop a stock basis index and build an on-chain lending market based on Reality's rToken. Among them, Reality provides exposure to tokenized stock assets, while Keyring is responsible for developing the index methodology and constructing the related lending market. The index aims to capture funding rate and basis yield opportunities by combining rToken holdings with corresponding stock perpetual contract hedging positions, providing new strategic pathways for the application of tokenized stocks in on-chain financial scenarios.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $104,636 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's October decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point increase." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this asset is 93%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $56,167.83 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's October decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point increase." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 93%.

Recently, there has been a viewpoint in the community that a 20% correction in the US stock market would trigger Bitcoin to plummet to $10,000. Crypto analyst Darkfost published an analysis indicating that if Bitcoin falls to $10,000, it would represent a decline of about 87% from the current price and a retracement of about 92% from its historical peak. Historically, Bitcoin has only experienced a maximum retracement of over 92% in 2011; the maximum retracements in 2015, 2019, 2022, and 2026 were 82.5%, 82.6%, 74.4%, and 54.2%, respectively.Darkfost further pointed out that during a correction of about 19.53% in the S&P 500 index, Bitcoin fell by about 80% in 2018. However, in April 2025, when the S&P 500 index also corrected by over 19%, Bitcoin only dropped by about 22%. Therefore, directly linking a 20% correction in the US stock market to Bitcoin falling to $10,000 lacks sufficient historical data support.

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 84.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 15.5%.