basis

Michael Saylor posted on the X platform stating that under the assumptions of a 10% annual return on Bitcoin, a 40% volatility of Bitcoin, and a Bitcoin price of $81,200, the duration of the dollar is 3.8 years, and the Bitcoin credit spread of STRC is 53 basis points.

On Friday, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as the market expected. After the announcement of the rate hike decision, the Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar and Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin, priced in US dollars, remained basically stable.

CoinDesk reported that Goldman Sachs predicts the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in October, citing the central bank's own recent hawkish rate forecasts.

According to CME's "FedWatch," after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected in September, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at 3.75%-4.00% in the October meeting is 59.5%, the probability of a 25 basis point increase is 40.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point increase is 0.5%.The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate at 3.75%-4.00% until December is 16.7%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 54.0%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 28.9%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 75 basis points is 0.3%.

The Federal Reserve's FOMC unanimously decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023. The latest dot plot shows that 16 officials expect at least one more rate hike by 2026, with the median rate expectations for 2027 and 2026 both at 4.1%.Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that recent data shows the U.S. economy is performing strongly, and the labor market remains resilient, but inflation is too high and has persisted for too long. The FOMC is currently not confident that inflation is moving toward the 2% target. He mentioned that the main issue for the current economy is not growth, but inflation. Waller also noted that the rise in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily driven by a strong U.S. economy, increased capital competition, and geopolitical factors.From the announcement of the decision to Waller's press conference, spot gold briefly fell by about $100, the U.S. dollar index rose by about 40 points and broke through the 100 mark, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by about 10 basis points, and the 10-year yield rose by about 5 basis points, with U.S. stocks turning lower across the board. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in an additional rate hike of about 33 basis points this year and expect a cumulative increase of about 75 basis points by June next year.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event of the "Federal Reserve's October Decision" on the Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "25 Basis Points Increase" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 30.5% an hour ago to the current 48% (a fluctuation of 17.5%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

Cointelegraph reported that among 22 major institutions on Wall Street, 19 expect an interest rate hike in September, with most predicting a 50 basis point increase.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $175,824.35 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point interest rate hike." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 88%.

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts Jason Thomas stated that the Federal Reserve's implementation of a 25 basis point interest rate hike is under "great pressure."

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, large capital movements are predicted to occur in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $52,800 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point rate hike." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding win rate for this asset is 88%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket. A large whale invested $80,000 in a single buy regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point increase." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 80%.

JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December 2026, up from the previous forecast of a single rate hike in December.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $87,057.89 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point increase." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 80.61%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $56,235.86 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point rate hike." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this asset is 46%.

The European Central Bank is expected to implement its second interest rate hike since the energy prices surged due to the Iran war, as inflation remains persistently above target.Institutional surveys show that, except for one analyst, the rest expect the deposit rate to be raised by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Thursday. Policymakers are responding to last month's consumer price increase that surpassed 3%.

The re-staking protocol Renzo Protocol announced its name change to Renzo Finance and launched its first on-chain structured yield product Renzo Basis, which will go live on Hyperliquid, initially supporting BTC and HYPE. Lucas Kozinski, founder of Renzo Labs, stated that basis trading earns funding rate income by simultaneously holding a spot long and a perpetual contract short. Since the long and short positions hedge each other, asset price fluctuations do not affect the yield, and users earn the fees paid by perpetual traders every hour.Renzo stated that the product achieves automation through a triple protection mechanism, including hedge protection, yield protection, and safety buffer. Currently, the product does not use AI automation but instead conducts trading and strategy monitoring through Hyperliquid's proxy wallet (API wallet) with user authorization, without holding user funds. The relevant protection parameters can be customized by users. Renzo emphasized that its product differs from competitors such as Ethena and Bitwise's Superstate in that it is fully on-chain, self-custodied, and allows depositors to choose their own assets, trading venues, and risk parameters.Renzo Basis plans to support all assets on Hyperliquid that have both spot and perpetual markets and expand to other DeFi platforms, with the next stop being Lighter on Robinhood, where on-chain stock perpetual basis trading will be introduced.

"New Bond King" Gundlach stated that the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate should be raised by 50 basis points.

According to CoinDesk, as Bitcoin surged from about $62,000 to over $77,000 last week, liquidating approximately $3 billion in leveraged short positions, major crypto market makers such as Abraxas Capital, Fasanara Capital, and Wintermute quietly established short positions in perpetual contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars on Hyperliquid.Lookonchain data shows that the three institutions collectively hold short positions of 138,569 ETH (approximately $338 million) and 3,425 BTC (approximately $265 million); meanwhile, Abraxas Capital withdrew 73,872 ETH (approximately $173 million) from Binance in the past four days.This strategy is known as cash arbitrage or basis trading: traders hold spot positions while shorting an equivalent amount of assets through perpetual contracts to hedge against price volatility risks, primarily earning the funding rates paid by longs to shorts. In previous months, funding rates were long suppressed or even turned negative, but this month's rebound has quickly turned funding rates positive, reopening the arbitrage window. Aegis data shows that the 30-day average funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts on August 24 reached an annualized 6.7%, with a 7-day average of 8.7%; 21shares capital markets noted that basis trading for mainstream assets like Solana is also becoming lucrative.This trading has extended to regulated markets: Glassnode data shows that CME Bitcoin futures open interest has risen from about 87,000 BTC to 122,000 BTC.