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Arthur Hayes: The burst of the AI bubble will trigger "super printing," driving Bitcoin back into a bull market

Arthur Hayes published a new article titled "Situationship," suggesting that the AI bubble may eventually burst, but its subsequent impact could drive global liquidity expansion and become a catalyst for the next Bitcoin bull market. Hayes believes that the key to determining whether AI is a bubble lies in how investors define AI infrastructure construction. He points out that the market generally views the trillions of dollars in AI capital expenditure as "technology investment" and assigns high growth valuations, but its essence is closer to "real estate investment."He states that the current AI infrastructure construction is actually about building data centers, power facilities, and other underlying assets that support computing power, rather than directly investing in technology companies like Apple. "Financial institutions, private credit funds, and governments may mistakenly believe that investing in AI data centers is equivalent to investing in tech giants, while in reality, it is more akin to investing in highly leveraged infrastructure projects." Hayes believes that the core reason for the AI bubble's burst is not that corporate profits cannot be realized, but rather excessive credit expansion. He indicates that, supported by the U.S. and Chinese governments, financial intermediaries may overbuild data centers, power facilities, and related supply chains, ultimately creating credit cycle risks similar to those of the 2008 financial crisis, rather than a profit valuation crisis like that of the 2000 internet bubble.However, Hayes believes that the long-term value of AI remains immense. He points out that the computing resources operating within data centers will drive the development of "silicon-based life," having a profound impact on human civilization similar to that of the railroad era. Regarding market impact, Hayes expects that after the AI bubble bursts, governments and central banks may adopt more aggressive monetary easing measures, repairing the financial system through "massive money printing," pushing risk assets back into an upward cycle, and ultimately benefiting Bitcoin. Hayes states that the core variable of the current AI cycle is whether the capital market has mispriced AI infrastructure, and this judgment will determine the future direction of the market.

WSJ: The burst of the storage chip stock bubble in this round has not triggered systemic shocks, with the S&P 500 only down 1.6% from its historical high

According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. market has frequently seen bubbles around specific industries and themes in recent years, but these localized bubbles usually do not drag down the overall stock market when they burst.The current storage chip bubble rapidly inflated and burst within about 4 months, accompanied by severe volatility and a hedge fund falling into crisis, yet the S&P 500 index is only 1.6% away from its historical high, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 index set a new high last week. The pullback in AI-related stocks has also been almost completely offset by gains in other sectors.Over the past decade, the U.S. market has experienced bubbles in 3D printing, Chinese concept stocks, low-volatility products, SPACs, clean energy, cannabis, space, crypto assets, and AI concept stocks. Strategy fell 83% from its peak, Trump Media's stock price dropped 89%, and SK Hynix fell 55% before rebounding last Friday.Loose funding, speculative demand, and expectations for new technologies have driven these bubbles, while margin debt and leveraged ETFs in recent years have further amplified the volatility.These localized bubbles have not caused severe shocks to the economy, mainly because most were not financed by large amounts of debt. After the bubbles burst, the losses were primarily borne by investors, and the banking system did not suffer significant shocks.Macro strategist Russell Napier stated that the banking system remains healthy, so there is always more credit available in the market to create the next round of bubbles.However, AI investments are pushing the market into a more dangerous territory. Data center spending is expected to reach $7 trillion over the next four years, and if the productivity gains from AI are not sufficient to support such a scale of investment, capital misallocation could severely harm the economy.As AI construction increasingly relies on debt financing, if broader AI investments ultimately prove to be a bubble, their burst could impact the financial system, making it difficult for the overall market to remain unaffected.

hot_img Anthropic donates another $20 million, doubling AI policy lobbying funds

Artificial intelligence company Anthropic announced on Wednesday that it will make an additional donation of $20 million to the bipartisan advocacy organization Public First Action, bringing its total commitment to $40 million. Anthropic stated that the decision for the additional donation stems from the continuous enhancement of AI model capabilities (including its self-developed Mythos model) and the potential risks it brings.Public First Action is a 501(c)(4) nonprofit organization dedicated to public education on AI transparency and safety. The organization is associated with three super political action committees (super PACs) and plans to support candidates advocating for AI safety across both parties. Anthropic emphasized that the donations are solely for supporting Public First Action's policy mission and cannot be used to influence the election of specific candidates.In a statement, Anthropic noted that AI policy decisions will impact various aspects of public life, including the labor market and national security, and the company hopes to promote "flexible regulation" to manage risks while reaping the benefits of AI. Currently, the super PAC "Leading the Future," which advocates for rapid AI development and light regulation, has received significant funding from supporters including OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman and venture capital firm a16z. As AI increasingly becomes a topic in elections, public education and lobbying efforts by advocacy groups are continuing to ramp up.
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