analysis

According to a report by Reuters, if the Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives or the Senate after the midterm elections in November, they are expected to launch investigations into business dealings related to Trump and his family, focusing on the cryptocurrency, prediction markets, and investment businesses involving the Trump family, as well as companies that funded projects for the White House.The report states that controlling either chamber of Congress will give the Democrats more resources for committee investigations and subpoena power, with some investigations potentially starting as early as February next year. The subjects of investigation frequently mentioned by Democratic lawmakers include the venture capital firm 1789 Capital, in which Donald Trump Jr. is involved, as well as cryptocurrency companies related to the Trump family, but a final list of investigations has not yet been established.Additionally, Republican Senator John Curtis has previously called for an investigation into some of Donald Trump Jr.'s business relationships, believing that the commercial activities of the presidential family should be subject to consistent congressional oversight.

User gpugene stated during a discussion on computing power trading: Some B300 transaction prices have exceeded 24 dollars per GPU hour, and the price of computing power with a term shorter than 1 year remains above 7 dollars and is still rising. gpugene expressed the hope to use computing power derivatives to guard against the rise in GPU hour prices while retaining the flexibility to adjust rental durations; if inference clouds sell services at fixed prices and their own GPU bills fluctuate, they have effectively taken on the risk of computing power price changes.The article provides an example where a supplier can offer a plan for 2048 B300s, available for rent for 5 years at 4.15 dollars per GPU hour, corresponding to an amount of 372,264,960 dollars. If the client goes live after 12 months and uses this scale from the 13th to the 15th month, the total would be 4,485,120 GPU hours. gpugene calculated that the current premium for a call option with an exercise price of 4.50 dollars is approximately 4.83 million dollars; if changed to a compound option, the current payment would be about 2.70 million dollars, with an additional payment of about 4.49 million dollars upon exercising in the 12th month.gpugene also compared 4000 hypothetical 5-year rental and demand paths. The average cost of annual renewal is 4.72 dollars per hour, with the worst 5% scenario averaging 10.91 dollars; after adding the call option, these figures change to 4.88 dollars and 7.20 dollars, respectively, with the premium included. gpugene believes that the emerging computing power derivatives market may change how neocloud and related participants expand and protect themselves.

According to Forbes, Bitcoin approached $90,000 earlier this month. Meanwhile, global debt continues to rise, and the "currency depreciation trade" surrounding the decline in purchasing power of fiat currency has become one of the factors driving up assets like Bitcoin and gold.Data from the Institute of International Finance shows that global debt increased by $10 trillion in the first half of this year, surpassing $365 trillion in total. The U.S. debt has exceeded $40 trillion, with annual interest payments rising to $1.27 trillion, surpassing defense and Medicare spending, and only lower than Social Security spending. The institute warns that as benchmark interest rates rise, interest costs will also increase.Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau and cross-asset analyst, stated that the current environment is favorable for "currency depreciation assets" like Bitcoin and gold, which is part of the reason for Bitcoin's recent rise. The larger the debt of major economies, the more likely it is to suppress real borrowing costs and allow inflation to erode the real value of debt, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of such trades.Analysts from The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the purchasing power of the dollar has declined by 23% since 2020; if assets only increased by 30% during the same period, investors have essentially just broken even in terms of real purchasing power. The U.S. inflation rate has been above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for 60 consecutive months.

According to CoinDesk, the volatility in the U.S. Treasury market has significantly increased recently, while Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market remain calm. The MOVE index, which measures expected volatility in U.S. Treasuries, rose from about 80 on Tuesday to 104 on Thursday, the highest level since March; at that time, the index reached as high as 199.In contrast, the Volmex 30-day Bitcoin implied volatility index (BVIV) is currently around 37, close to the year-to-date low of 35; the Cboe VIX, which measures expected volatility in the S&P 500, is near the year-to-date low of 14.Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond briefly hit 5.2% on Thursday before falling back to 5.163%. Data shows that the correlation coefficient between VIX and MOVE over the past 20 trading days has dropped to -0.06, marking the first negative correlation since April 2024; the correlation coefficient between BVIV and MOVE is -0.37, at a relatively low level in recent years.Analysts point out that as an important foundation of the global financial and credit system, an increase in U.S. Treasury volatility usually indicates a tightening financial environment, but currently, BTC and the U.S. stock market have not reflected the same level of volatility risk as the bond market.

According to Darkfost's analysis, during the recent rise of Bitcoin, Binance's BTC funds have primarily been flowing out, with an average net outflow of about 2,000 BTC per day over the past week. Among them, Binance experienced a single-day net outflow of over 13,800 BTC, setting the record for the largest single-day net outflow in 2023.In the past 4 days, the platform's BTC reserves have decreased from about 705,000 to 685,000, a reduction of approximately 20,000 BTC. Darkfost stated that the continuous outflow of BTC from exchanges usually indicates that some investors are choosing to transfer their assets to self-custody, which may correspond to a longer-term holding behavior while reducing potential selling pressure on the exchange. He believes that the recent large-scale outflow may reflect the FOMO sentiment of investors who had previously been waiting for Bitcoin to drop further.

Semiconductor analysis firm Kernel Insight: Demand for artificial intelligence drives DRAM prices to maintain historical highs, with the unit area sales value of the latest process DRAM exceeding the wafer prices of TSMC's N2 and N3. The firm estimates TSMC's 300mm N3 wafer price at $20,000 and N2 at $30,000, translating to nominal prices of approximately $0.283 per square millimeter and $0.424 per square millimeter, respectively, not accounting for edge losses, cutting losses, yield, and defects.Based on a price of $1.50 per Gb and generational bit density calculations, 1y DRAM is $0.329 per square millimeter, 1z is $0.410 per square millimeter, and 1b is $0.654 per square millimeter, more than 50% higher than N2. The 10nm process gradually shrinks in the order of 1y, 1z, 1a, and 1b. The above prices per Gb assume they are close to spot prices; DRAMeXchange data shows that on September 21, the average transaction price for 16Gb DDR5 eTT chips was $24.80, approximately $1.55 per Gb.There are differences in comparison metrics. TSMC's figures represent the wafer foundry prices paid by customers, while the DRAM figures represent the total sales potential of finished products and do not include advanced packaging costs; TSMC's actual supply prices will vary with order volumes and contracts. DRAM metrics are based on small spot prices, differing from the long-term contract prices of Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron's revenue entities. Recently, non-public fixed trading prices have strengthened; if they have not yet fully reflected in spot prices, the leading margin of wafer unit prices for memory manufacturers may be even greater.

According to CoinDesk, approximately 15.9 billion USD in BTC options and 2.1 billion USD in ETH options will expire on September 25 at 8:00 (UTC), with the BTC options expiration size accounting for about 37% of Deribit's current total open BTC options of 43.5 billion USD. Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers stated that the call options for this quarterly contract dominate, with a put/call open interest ratio of 0.69, indicating that the market has primarily bet on price increases.Currently, about 9.4 billion USD in calls, 55% are in-the-money, with the maximum pain point for BTC options at 75,000 USD. Strijers mentioned that after the expiration settlement, market makers' hedging and gamma effects may fade, leading to a potential increase in short-term volatility for BTC, and the market trading range may readjust.

Bitget has upgraded its AI assistant GetAgent to version 2.0, expanding the scope of AI research from the cryptocurrency market to include U.S. stocks, CFDs, and on-chain data scenarios, forming a cross-market research framework that covers various assets such as cryptocurrency, U.S. stocks, gold, and crude oil. Users can complete market inquiries, opportunity screening, position diagnostics, and trade reviews through natural language, and combine relevant market data, events, and fundamental information to obtain structured analysis that includes key price levels, participation conditions, risk boundaries, and conditions for judgment failure.In terms of functional interaction, this upgrade further enhances GetAgent's continuous research capabilities. Users can set up regular reports, event reminders, and continuously track market changes based on specific conditions, extending AI from one-time Q&A to ongoing market research and dynamic tracking, transforming fragmented market observations into coherent trading plans.As an important part of Bitget's Agent-native strategy, GetAgent 2.0 is evolving from an information inquiry tool to a continuous research assistant. As UEX covers more cryptocurrency assets and traditional financial markets, GetAgent will also serve as the corresponding intelligent research layer, providing users with cross-asset analysis, regular reports, and continuous market tracking capabilities.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that although the price of Bitcoin is rising, sustained buying pressure is still difficult to rebuild, and market signals are mixed. The cumulative spot demand over the past 30 days is -180,000 BTC, still negative, while futures demand is +54,000 BTC, still positive but slightly declining. The total average demand improved from -188,000 BTC to -126,000 BTC, narrowing the gap but still remaining in negative territory. Recently, there has been a divergence between price and total demand; Bitcoin's price has risen, but total demand has not turned positive, indicating that the increase is more driven by reduced selling pressure rather than strong buying.Looking at different sectors, the demand recovery is not uniform. For institutions, the geopolitical and macro environment is poor, but the Coinbase Premium, weighted by trading volume, has briefly turned positive, indicating that U.S. spot prices occasionally have a premium over other markets, and institutional selling pressure has significantly eased. ETFs have seen the biggest change in this round, with demand completely reversing compared to this summer, having recently net purchased about 70,000 BTC. The cumulative net inflow for 2026 is still about -17,000 BTC, but it is close to turning positive. In terms of trading platforms, the entire month of September has been characterized by net outflows, leaning towards accumulation rather than distribution. Bitcoin leaving trading platforms usually means that short-term selling pressure is lighter. Analyst Darkfost summarized that the current price increase is not due to enhanced buying pressure, but rather because investors have not continued to increase selling pressure at higher price levels, and the market structure remains fragile.

Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity Investments, stated on platform X that trading in the AI sector has been in a "dead money" state for over three months, with the token spending and GPU rental rates he tracks remaining flat or declining, while only memory (DRAM) prices continue to rise.Timmer believes that AI will change life in the long term and may unleash a productivity miracle, raising the non-inflationary speed limit of the economy to a level sufficient to sustain global debt. However, before that, the current construction is inflationary, and the returns on the trillions of dollars invested in computing power remain uncertain, with corporate equity and debt capital demand growing at a rate of $3.3 trillion.

The artificial intelligence research organization Epoch AI posted on X: AI is becoming cheaper at a faster rate than any other transformative technology in history. The cost has decreased by approximately 47% each quarter since 2023 at a given performance level.This speed is 4 times faster than DNA sequencing, 6 times faster than computing, 18 times faster than lithium batteries, and 54 times faster than electricity (as of 1973).

Cryptocurrency analyst Chen Mo posted that Binance's USDe briefly deviated to $0.92 today, and the last incident on October 11 was also related to USDe, while the on-chain price has remained stable.Chen Mo stated that the order book for USDe on CEX is very thin, and it supports USDe as collateral for opening positions. The risk transmission from October 11 started here, but afterwards, Binance included the actual redemption price of USDe into the price index, no longer relying solely on the order book quotes, theoretically preventing a repeat of the October 11 incident.

According to Substrate's report on September 18, the semiconductor and AI infrastructure research organization SemiAnalysis is expected to exceed $100 million in revenue this year, with a workforce of about 100 people. Its founder Dylan Patel started in 2020 with a WordPress blog, and in 2023, revenue reached seven figures, with subscription income accounting for less than 5% of total revenue, the vast majority coming from data models, institutional research products Core Research, and consulting services. The company currently has 12 models covering areas such as networking, wafer fabrication equipment, foundry, and energy, with about 50 analysts.SemiAnalysis's clients include most of the large tech companies globally, with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, AMD CEO Lisa Su, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman among its readers. Its CoWoS and HBM supply chain models have predicted Nvidia shipping 400,000 H100 chips each quarter, and OpenAI used its InferenceX as a third-party benchmark when releasing its self-developed chip Jalapeño at Hot Chips.Dylan Patel recently raised $500 million for the SemiAnalysis Capital Fund I for early-stage startup investments. The company plans to expand into the energy sector, and analysts will engage with various stakeholders related to different power grids and utilities.

AI predicts derivatives center Fortune Protocol officially launched the AI Lightning Prediction feature in its Agent section.This update further enriches the dimensions of AI predictions and market data. Each prediction round will display UP/DOWN probabilities, AI confidence levels, market price spreads, key influencing factors, and risk information, helping users to better understand AI's judgment on current market trends.At the same time, Fortune has optimized the bi-weekly profit-sharing and refund mechanism, adding bi-weekly profit estimates, profit reconciliation, and refund details, further enhancing the transparency of profit data and fund processing, making it easier for users to understand the profit and refund situation for each cycle in a timely manner.Fortune stated that it will continue to improve the AI analysis, market data, and profit management system in the future, further enhancing the transparency, efficiency, and user experience of trading prediction derivatives.

Justin Greenhill, Chief Investment Officer of SOLLINDA Capital Management, stated that the signals released by the Wash press conference are clearly hawkish, which may help alleviate the recent upward momentum of long-term bond yields at least in the short term.It is currently unclear how this will affect the stock market, but it is expected that as financial conditions tighten further, the performance of small-cap stocks will lag behind that of large-cap stocks.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has shown a relatively independent trend before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, with a significant decrease in its short-term correlation with the US dollar index and US stocks. Alice Liu, the research director at CoinMarketCap, stated that the short-term correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the US dollar index has dropped to 0.08, compared to -0.54 over the past 30 days; its correlation coefficients with the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index have decreased to 0.43 and 0.3, respectively, from 0.75 and 0.6 the previous day.Liu believes that the market has recently shifted its attention to the CLARITY Act, which failed to pass a key procedural vote in the Senate on Tuesday, temporarily overshadowing regulatory progress with macro factors. As the correlation weakens, the strategy of hedging Bitcoin long positions by shorting S&P 500 futures has currently decreased in reliability. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, a scenario that has been largely priced in.This decision will test whether Bitcoin can re-establish its linkage with the US dollar and US stocks; traders also need to pay attention to the guidance after the meeting and fluctuations in US Treasury yields, as a significant rise in the latter could tighten financial conditions and drive risk-averse capital flows into the crypto market.

According to Kazinform, Timur Suleimenov, the Governor of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, announced at a government meeting that a national cryptocurrency analysis center will be established based on the central bank's supervision of the SupTech platform to monitor transactions related to digital assets.The center will analyze both fiat and cryptocurrency transaction data, as well as customer, wallet, and transaction information, and will be connected with the National Bank's anti-fraud center. Banks, law enforcement agencies, and licensed digital asset service providers will be allowed to access its verification tools. Previous reports indicated that the scale of digital asset transactions in Kazakhstan has reached 10.6 billion USD.

According to Fortune, Robinhood has recently tokenized stocks like AMC, which has led to public criticism from AMC's CEO. However, this model can reduce the cost and threshold for global investors to trade U.S. stocks. Blockchain-driven stock tokenization is reshaping the U.S. brokerage industry, and its impact may be similar to that of Napster on the music industry 25 years ago.Analysis points out that tokenized stocks still face issues such as voting rights, underlying stock custody, and whether token assets are fully backed. However, regulators have begun to promote the construction of relevant frameworks. Recently, Nasdaq also invested $100 million in blockchain financial company Payward, and the trend of stock on-chain is accelerating, making it difficult for threats or lawsuits to long-term hinder the development of this technology.

Singularity Research posted on X that Citrini has been acquired by SemiAnalysis, with the terms of the deal undisclosed. The agency initially estimated the transaction price to be around 30 million USD, later updating that the actual amount could be close to 100 million USD, but emphasized that there is no insider information, and it is merely speculation.Citrini was founded in 2023 and has a Substack newsletter and institutional research products, with over 260,000 subscribers. Its annual revenue is estimated to be around 5.9 million USD. Citrini completed a 5.05 million USD SAFE round of financing in December 2025, and if calculated with approximately 20% dilution, the post-money valuation is about 25 million USD.