analysis

According to Cointelegraph, after the U.S. stock market opened, Bitcoin quickly fell, briefly dropping below the $79,000 mark, with a daily decline of about 3%, reaching a low not seen since May. The market generally believes that this round of correction is closely related to the sell-off of risk assets triggered by the surge in U.S. Treasury yields. Data shows that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose above 4.55%, reaching a nearly one-year high, raising concerns in the market about tightening liquidity and the reassessment of risk assets.Analysts pointed out that this level had previously triggered adjustments in U.S. stocks and policy expectations last year, and it has now become a key pressure signal again. Trading firm The Kobeissi Letter stated that the "crisis-like rise" in the U.S. Treasury market is intensifying, with long-term high interest rate expectations heating up. The market has begun to factor in the possibility of future rate hikes, leading to a rapid cooling of the previous "euphoric sentiment" in risk assets.From a technical perspective, analysts believe that after multiple rejections of resistance above $82,000, the support structure for Bitcoin is weakening, and it may retest the $75,000--$77,000 range in the short term, as the market enters a phase of range-bound fluctuations and directional choices.

According to Decrypt, the price of Bitcoin remains around $80,350, with a short-term increase of only 0.8%, continuing to face pressure after multiple attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level failed. This range is seen as a combined resistance level of the ETF cost line, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap filling area. Although the U.S. CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive expectations for crypto regulation, institutional funds continue to withdraw.Data shows that the net outflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has decreased to an average of -$88 million per day over the past seven days, marking the largest outflow since mid-February. Analysts believe that this round of selling pressure is more about "profit-taking" rather than panic selling. On a macro level, rising U.S. Treasury yields have become a core source of pressure. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to about 4.52%, reaching a 10-month high, while the April CPI has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, the highest level in three years, further delaying market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, thereby weakening the appeal of risk assets. From an institutional perspective, some analysts believe that the current outflow of ETF funds is part of portfolio rebalancing rather than a trend-based withdrawal.The options market shows that Bitcoin faces significant resistance in the $82,000-$84,000 range, while $77,000 is a key support level. If the price falls below this range and leverage does not cool down, the market may enter a deleveraging phase, increasing the risk of a correction.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee recently advanced the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, marking a step forward in the regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto market. Research institution HashKey Group pointed out that if the bill is enacted, it will significantly enhance compliance certainty for institutional investors participating in the crypto market and strengthen the core position of the U.S. dollar stablecoin in the global digital financial system.Analysts believe that a clearer U.S. regulatory framework will encourage banks, asset management institutions, and sovereign funds to more widely adopt compliant stablecoins for cross-border payments, settlements, and fund management, especially with more evident demand in the Asian market. However, at the same time, the U.S. restrictions on "yield-bearing stablecoins" may create structural spillover effects. HashKey researcher Tim Sun stated that if the U.S. strictly limits the stablecoin yield mechanisms, capital may flow to the Asian market or indirectly seek higher yields through "wrapped products."The report noted that the Asian market (such as Hong Kong and Singapore) features active cross-border trade, frequent capital flows, and local currencies that are more susceptible to external shocks. In an environment of high U.S. dollar financing costs, U.S. dollar stablecoins will become an important liquidity tool. However, the analysis also emphasized that this competition is not a zero-sum game. As the CLARITY Act progresses, the global competitive focus may shift from "trading platforms and token issuance" to "stablecoin liquidity channels and control over financial infrastructure," meaning who can more efficiently connect U.S. dollar liquidity, regional assets, and compliant financial channels.

According to BIT analysis, if Bitcoin could keep up with the Nasdaq's rise, the current price should be close to $140,000. The relative underperformance of Bitcoin may be related to the resurgence of inflation since the third quarter of 2025. Overall, Bitcoin had generally followed the fluctuations of the Nasdaq, but since October 2025, the divergence between the two has begun to widen significantly. At that time, the latest CPI reading had risen back to 3%, which is 100 basis points above the Federal Reserve's target, and the interest rate market also began to gradually retract some pricing for rate cuts in 2026. This is precisely the source of the pressure on Bitcoin; its upward logic relies on expectations of Federal Reserve easing, and once the market starts to retract pricing for rate cuts, performance often comes under pressure. Subsequently, this logic continued to influence Bitcoin's trend.Stocks, on the other hand, are completely different. As long as the market still views inflation as mild and temporary, a rise in inflation can actually be beneficial for stocks: even if sales do not increase significantly, it can boost nominal corporate income, reduce real debt burdens, and enhance the attractiveness of stocks as a hedge against purchasing power. The latest U.S. inflation data seems to have caught some market participants off guard, although the agency's model had previously indicated that price pressures might rise again. The current key question is whether this round of inflation expectation repricing will weaken the ongoing positive fundamentals for Bitcoin; and how investors should adjust their positions in this context.

According to Jinshi reports, the market has currently priced in a probability of over 30% for interest rate hikes before December. After the unexpectedly strong PPI data in the U.S. for April, the market believes it will be almost more difficult for the Federal Reserve to justify any rate cuts this year.The April PPI rose by 1.4%, significantly higher than the general expectation of 0.5% from economists, indicating that inflationary pressures are stronger than expected and reinforcing the trend of the market repricing the interest rate path.

According to Sina Finance, 21Shares analyst Matt Mena stated that Bitcoin did not decline due to inflation data, indicating that the market has already priced in the overheating inflation data and remains above the important support level of $80,000.Mena believes that as macro resistance is gradually cleared, Bitcoin is expected to retest the resistance level of $82,000 and further advance towards $85,000. The upcoming Senate vote on the CLARITY Act may also become an important catalyst, pushing the price to $90,000.

Despite Bitcoin's pullback of about 2.5% since reaching a peak of $82,800, market analysts generally believe that its overall upward structure remains intact and has re-entered the "full bull market momentum" range. Swiss wealth management firm Swissblock pointed out that Bitcoin has re-entered the price expansion range, the Bull Market Support Band has turned into support, and the 21-week EMA has crossed above the 20-week SMA, with the trend structure turning bullish again. Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating around $80,000, where the "real market average" and short-term holding costs constitute key support, while the realized price around $85,000 forms an upper pressure zone.Whale and institutional-led spot buying are strengthening, while the proportion of derivative speculation is decreasing. Similar structures historically correspond to sustainable upward trends. If this indicator continues to maintain positive values, it may further drive Bitcoin to continue its upward cycle. In terms of liquidity, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has rebounded from historical lows to a key range, indicating that stablecoin funds are flowing back into the market. This signal has corresponded to phase bottom rebounds in mid-2021, 2022, and mid-2023. Meanwhile, the Binance stablecoin supply ratio oscillation indicator (SSR Oscillator) has risen to 2.8, reaching a 12-month high, showing a significant increase in stablecoin purchasing power.On-chain activity is also strengthening. Bitcoin's daily transaction volume has increased by 116%, reaching 831,400 transactions, a 20-month high; the number of active addresses has increased by 7.1% to 707,700, and total transaction fees have grown by 37% to $279,300, indicating a significant increase in network usage activity. In terms of funding structure, the 90-day spot Taker CVD has turned into a sustained positive value, indicating that spot buying is dominating the market. Glassnode data shows that this indicator has further risen to $62 million compared to a week ago, reflecting an increase in market proactive buying sentiment.In summary, the price structure, liquidity indicators, and on-chain demand all indicate that Bitcoin is currently still in a "strong trend expansion phase," and the bull market momentum has not yet ended.

According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market has temporarily stalled before the release of the U.S. April CPI data. Bitcoin has recently been oscillating in the range of $80,000 to $82,000, failing to effectively break through since last Wednesday.The market believes that although capital flows still indicate a potential for a subsequent breakthrough, inflation and macro risks are suppressing risk appetite. The U.S. will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. FactSet data shows that the market expects the April CPI to rise year-on-year to 3.7%, up from 3.3% in March. If the forecast is realized, it will mark the largest increase since January 2024 and is significantly higher than the average of 2.7% over the past 12 months. The core CPI is expected to rise year-on-year to 2.7%, up from the previous value of 2.6%.Analysts are concerned that if the inflation data exceeds expectations against the backdrop of high oil prices and Trump's statement that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is "extremely fragile," it may further trigger market risk aversion, dragging down the performance of risk assets.Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at FXTM, stated that the current market is entering a sensitive phase where geopolitical issues, inflation risks, and central bank expectations are intertwined. High oil prices, uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran, and key U.S. economic data may lead to increased volatility in commodities, exchange rates, and global stock markets.In addition to macro factors, XRP and SOL are also approaching key supply zones again. XRP tested $1.50 today but has failed to break through this level multiple times since February of this year; SOL is once again nearing the resistance level around $97.Meanwhile, institutional interest in related assets is heating up. The U.S. spot XRP ETF recorded a net inflow of $25.8 million on Monday, reaching a new high since January 5; Bitcoin and Solana ETFs also maintained net inflows, while the Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $16.9 million.

Analyst Murphy has released a bearish signal analysis for Bitcoin at a small scale. Currently, the CVD of Binance perpetual contracts has rapidly declined from the April high and has fallen below the 90-day median. This indicates that market bulls are unwilling to continue chasing higher prices, and bears are starting to actively sell short. The spot CVD has also begun to "peak and turn down." Historically, when this indicator turns, prices often follow with a correction, similar to November 2024 and April 2025. However, the key difference in the current market compared to the past is that the BTC CVD indicator on Coinbase remains steadily above the 90-day median line.During the same period, the 30-day net purchases of Bitcoin spot ETFs have not shown a significant decrease, and funds in the U.S. market are still supporting it. Analysts state that shorting in the short term remains a high-risk behavior, and bears still need to wait for bearish sentiment to dominate on Binance, as well as for U.S. investors' spot buying to gradually withdraw.

According to The Block, affected by Iran's rejection of the U.S. peace framework and the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil briefly surpassed $104 on Monday, while Bitcoin remained fluctuating above $81,000. Analysts believe that the current crypto market is more driven by geopolitical factors rather than fundamental factors. QCP Capital describes the current market as "standing at a crossroads," viewing $84,000 as the next key resistance level for Bitcoin.Previously, the inflow of ETF funds, expectations of increased holdings by listed companies, and optimistic sentiment around the U.S. Clarity Act stablecoin bill drove BTC up to the $80,000 range, but recently there has been some profit-taking. Laser Digital stated that the market had previously bet that Strategy would make large-scale Bitcoin purchases, but after the expectations fell through, it triggered profit-taking sell-offs. Additionally, some enterprise-level BTC holders have slowed down or paused their accumulation, which has intensified market pressure.Meanwhile, Ethereum became the main target of selling last week. Reports indicate that a whale holding approximately $1 billion in both BTC and ETH has been continuously selling ETH, leading to a noticeable weakening of ETH relative to BTC. Although this address continued to transfer ETH to exchanges over the weekend, it has not triggered further sell-offs.On the macro level, U.S. non-farm payroll data for April was stronger than expected, alleviating short-term stagflation concerns for the Federal Reserve; the market is also focused on the upcoming CPI and PPI data to be released this week, as well as the progress of meetings between Trump and Chinese leaders in Beijing. CoinShares data shows that net inflows into digital asset investment products reached $857.9 million last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of net inflows.

According to CoinDesk, the floor price of Bored Ape (BAYC) NFTs has risen from about 5 ETH to over 10 ETH in the past month, while ApeCoin (APE) has also rebounded from below $0.1 to about $0.16 during the same period, with trading volume significantly increasing.At the same time, frequent security vulnerabilities in the DeFi sector and a continuous decline in yields have prompted some funds to shift towards the NFT market. The trend of NFT financialization is also heating up, with a recent $2.8 million loan transaction collateralized by a CryptoPunk attracting widespread attention, with the lender expected to earn about $138,000 in interest within 90 days. Blue-chip collections like Pudgy Penguins have also strengthened, further boosting market sentiment regarding the potential token issuance by OpenSea.

According to market news, market analysis indicates that as the U.S. CPI data is about to be released, Bitcoin may face greater downside pressure.The latest forecast from the Cleveland Fed shows that the overall U.S. CPI year-on-year may rise to 3.56%, up from 3.3% in March, which could further strengthen market expectations that the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to cut interest rates in the short term, thereby putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin has remained strong after several previous inflation data releases that exceeded expectations, the current market support has weakened compared to before, and the market's sensitivity to the CPI data may rise again. Currently, Bitcoin's daily chart is forming a classic "rising wedge" pattern; if the price breaks below the key support level of around $84,000, it may further test the $70,000 area; if it successfully breaks through the 200-day moving average resistance, it is expected to open up upward space to $90,000 to $95,000.

Crypto analyst Murphy stated that data shows retail investors have not generally missed out on this round of Bitcoin market. He pointed out that addresses holding less than 1 BTC have increased their balance by 23,074 BTC in the past 30 days, and there were three significant accumulations around $66,000, $70,000, and $80,000.Murphy believes that the retail investors still in the Bitcoin market during this cycle are mostly "veteran players" who have experienced the altcoin and contract cycles. Meanwhile, whales holding more than 10,000 BTC began to significantly increase their holdings around $66,000, with a peak increase of 140,699 BTC in the 30-day balance, marking the largest net growth in nearly two years, showing clear accumulation behavior. Murphy stated that the market will always move towards areas of less resistance, and when the lower resistance is greater, prices naturally tend to continue upward until they encounter stronger resistance.

Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark this week, following a five-day streak of net inflows into spot ETFs, as the market's rebound momentum from February's lows showed signs of cooling. The U.S. April non-farm payroll data added 115,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 62,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. Although the overall data was relatively strong, it did not significantly alleviate market concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty; instead, it reinforced expectations that "energy-driven inflation limits the space for interest rate cuts."In terms of capital flow, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $277 million on Thursday, ending a previous cumulative inflow of $1.69 billion; the Ethereum ETF also recorded a net outflow of $104 million on the same day, indicating a short-term cooling of institutional risk appetite. On the geopolitical front, tensions between Iran and the U.S. have escalated again, prompting the market to reprice the risks in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rebound in oil prices, which partially offset the support that previous risk assets received from the decline in oil prices.The derivatives market shows a more long-term hawkish outlook, with interest rate futures pricing in over a 50% probability of rate hikes beyond 2027, suggesting that the easing cycle may be delayed until 2028. On-chain data indicates that the current rise in Bitcoin is primarily driven by institutional spot buying and short covering, with retail participation remaining relatively low, and funding rates maintaining a moderate level, resulting in a weak market momentum structure. Analysts believe that if retail funds do not return, BTC may still face the risk of testing the support range of $75,000 to $78,000.

Analyst Murphy stated that the market is generally focused on the $60,000 price low, but the chip structure analysis reveals that Bitcoin's true bottom may lie in the dense trading area around $66,000.Data shows that this location has accumulated about 440,000 BTC, with 240,000 of that trading occurring between February and April. Currently, the chip proportion in the $65,000 to $78,000 range has reached 13.8%. Although it is still below the 18.7% level before the FTX collapse in October 2022, considering that traditional funds like ETFs and MicroStrategy have locked about 13% of the circulating chips at relatively high levels in this cycle, the current ratio has laid a foundation for building a bottom structure.If the market can experience a second retest and achieve further trading in this range, it will make the bottom foundation more solid and have a stronger "resilience." The true bottom should not be judged by the lowest price ($60,000) but rather by the trading area where large funds concentrated their entry ($66,000). Currently, the trading in the $78,000 to $82,000 range is still insufficient, and market divergences still need to be digested.

Artificial intelligence is driving economic growth in the United States: investments in software and IT equipment contributed +134 basis points to GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026, growing by 2.0%, marking the largest quarterly contribution in history. This means that 67% of economic growth in the previous quarter was driven by artificial intelligence.In other words, without technology investments driven by artificial intelligence, GDP growth in the first quarter would have been close to flat. This contribution is also about 10 basis points higher than the record set in 1999. Over the past five quarters, investments in software and IT equipment have averaged a contribution of +90 basis points per quarter, setting the highest contribution for any consecutive five quarters on record. The U.S. economy has become highly dependent on artificial intelligence.

Bitcoin approached the critical 200-day simple moving average (SMA, around $83,300) on Wednesday but failed to achieve a valid breakout, subsequently falling back below $81,000.Meanwhile, the overall cryptocurrency market weakened, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Index dropping over 2% in the past 24 hours, making it the weakest performer among major sectors. The market generally views the 200-day moving average as an important indicator for measuring long-term trends. If BTC can hold above this level, it will further reinforce the market narrative that "the bear market ended when it fell below $63,000 in February this year, and a new bull market has begun." However, a similar situation occurred in March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly broke through and tested the 200-day moving average, only to eventually fall to around $20,000 in June of the same year, leading some analysts to warn of the risk of a "false breakout."Analytical firm Marex stated that whether BTC can continue to rise depends on three major factors: whether spot funds continue to chase prices, whether exchange supply continues to tighten, and whether the derivatives market remains healthy and not overheated. If all three factors align, Bitcoin may quickly open up space towards the $85,000 range.FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich pointed out that this round of correction seems more like a brief pause in the upward process rather than the end of the trend. However, he also reminded that the daily RSI had previously entered the overbought zone, and similar past situations were accompanied by significant corrections. Additionally, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has fallen from a high of 4.46% at the beginning of the month to 4.32%, which is seen as a potential positive factor for risk assets.

According to crypto analyst @SpecterAnalyst, Binance US suddenly announced the listing of the small-cap meme coin USDUC, with suspected insiders profiting over $417,000 from it.According to on-chain information, multiple wallets received funds from Kraken, MEXC, and Coinbase hours before the announcement, buying USDUC at a low price in the early session and realizing huge profits ranging from $45,000 to $137,000 through the favorable listing. Additionally, according to GMGN market information, the current market capitalization of USDUC is reported at $16.94 million, with a 24-hour trading volume reaching $24.1 million.