analysis

The semiconductor research institution SemiAnalysis has released a latest analysis indicating that Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has clearly become the world's fourth largest DRAM manufacturer. Although its production capacity and cash flow are continuously growing, the institution believes that Changxin Memory still faces multiple challenges in equipment, technology, and market, and will not end the current storage "super cycle" in the short term.In terms of specific challenges, export controls on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (such as EUV, advanced etching, and TSV tools) severely restrict Changxin's expansion into more advanced processes and high bandwidth memory (HBM) fields; although domestic equipment (such as Zhongwei Company, Northern Huachuang, etc.) has alleviated some pressure, it cannot fully resolve the integration and yield bottlenecks across multiple process links, resulting in its technology still lagging behind leading manufacturers by several generations. Additionally, Changxin's market share is currently still highly concentrated in the Chinese domestic market, with global expansion limited by geopolitical factors and customers' willingness to diversify their supply chains.In response to market concerns that Changxin might "impact the global market with cheap chips," SemiAnalysis clarified that there is currently a severe structural shortage in the DRAM market, and the increase in Changxin's production capacity may even struggle to fully meet domestic demand in China. In fact, the prices of Chinese memory chips are also soaring significantly, in line with the global upward trend, and Changxin is similarly a beneficiary of the shortage premium. Therefore, Changxin Memory should be viewed as a long-term structural competitive force, and in the current context of accelerated AI demand and constrained supply, it cannot shake the fundamental super cycle dominated by leading manufacturers in the short term.

According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin unspent transaction output (UTXO) data shows that the proportion of loss transactions to profit transactions in the current market has dropped to the lowest level of this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a clear "surrender" phase.This indicator has previously triggered multiple times at historical cycle bottom areas. The last similar low occurred during the mid-2023 deep phase of the bear market, when the Bitcoin price briefly fell to around $26,000. Analysts believe that such phases usually correspond to extremely low market sentiment, with long-term investors gradually starting to accumulate again.Darkfost pointed out that this is the first time this signal has been triggered since the start of the current correction, indicating that the number of UTXOs sold at a loss is significantly increasing, reflecting a broader sell-off and surrender behavior that has begun. He also added that the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders' Bitcoin is gradually entering negative territory.

Base officially released an analysis report on the interruption of block production, which disclosed that the Base mainnet experienced two interruptions in block production on June 25 and 26, lasting 116 minutes and 20 minutes respectively. The security of on-chain assets was not affected, and funds remained in a secure state.The root cause of the incident stemmed from a logic flaw in the sequencer's block construction: after a transaction execution failure, the old journal state was not correctly cleared, leading to gas calculation errors during the execution of subsequent valid transactions, which in turn generated invalid state transition blocks, causing the entire L2 chain to pause block production.Base stated that the issue has been resolved through a patch, and it will strengthen the protocol's fuzz testing and stress testing systems to identify potential malicious transaction paths, while also optimizing monitoring and operational processes. Additionally, there are plans to introduce a recovery mechanism to enhance the ability to recover quickly from similar incidents in the future.

The Kobeissi Letter analysis points out that since April, the cumulative net outflow from U.S. gold and Bitcoin-related ETFs has been about $12 billion, while during the same period, semiconductor ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $20 billion, with funds clearly concentrating in the technology growth sector.This trend accelerated further in mid-May: the outflow from gold and Bitcoin ETFs increased more than threefold, while the inflow into semiconductor ETFs doubled. In terms of market performance, the world's largest gold ETF GLD has fallen about 13% since early April, and the Bitcoin ETF IBIT has dropped about 12% during the same period; in contrast, semiconductor ETFs SOXX and SMH have risen approximately 81% and 60%, respectively.Analysis suggests that the current market shows a clear "risk preference switch," with retail funds accelerating their shift from safe-haven assets and crypto assets to high-growth semiconductor and AI-related sectors, driving the market in unprecedented ways.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Strategy's preferred stock MSTR has fallen 78% from its peak, while Bitcoin has dropped 51% from its peak. The average cost basis for Strategy's 847,363 BTC holdings is $75,651, with a total cost of $64.1 billion. The current BTC price has fallen below this cost line for the first time since the bear market of 2022. The additional decline of MSTR relative to BTC has reached about 28 percentage points, approaching the upper end of the historical range, but has not yet touched the extreme of an 89% retracement from the 2022 low.Meanwhile, Strategy's purchasing strategy has clearly shifted to a defensive stance: the weekly BTC purchase volume has been cut by about two-thirds, with less than 11% of the $335.5 million raised through stock issuance used to buy BTC, and the remainder transferred to dollar reserves. At the end of May, Strategy also conducted its first net sell since 2022, selling 32 BTC to pay STRC dividends. Adler pointed out that the main risk currently lies in BTC remaining below the treasury cost line of $75,000, which would block the financing channel for ATM issuance by compressing the MSTR premium. However, nearly all of Strategy's debt is in convertible bonds, with no additional margin risk; the baseline scenario is the loss of marginal buyers rather than cascading liquidations. The real pressure point lies in the company's transition from selling stock to systematically selling BTC itself to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has repeatedly found support around $59,000 in June, a position that has replaced $60,000 as a more critical technical support level. On Wednesday, as the decline accelerated, the price briefly approached $59,000 before rebounding to $61,000, a similar trend that occurred on June 5, when the price rebounded to $67,000 after stopping the decline near $59,000.The Federal Reserve's most closely watched PCE data will be released on Thursday evening, with core PCE expected to rise year-on-year by 3.3%-3.4%, the highest since October 2023. If the data exceeds expectations, it will confirm that the rise in inflation is not a temporary phenomenon, potentially strengthening interest rate hike expectations and pushing the dollar index further up, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies; if it falls short of expectations, it may alleviate concerns about interest rate hikes, providing support for Bitcoin's rebound from $59,000.

According to BBX data, yesterday traditional derivatives giant made a high-profile entry into the prediction market, and a counter-cyclical signal appeared for digital asset reserve companies. The core dynamics are as follows:Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: $CBOE) announced yesterday the re-launch of binary options products benchmarked to the S&P 500 index ("Yes/No" structure, providing fixed returns or zero at expiration based on contract conditions). This marks Cboe's first return to this category since it withdrew about ten years ago, directly entering the prediction market track pioneered by Polymarket and Kalshi, which has become "one of the fastest-growing areas on the internet." This move signifies that one of the largest regulated derivatives exchanges in the U.S. officially recognizes binary options/prediction markets as an independent asset class, entering the competition with the compliance endorsement of a traditional exchange and institutional distribution capabilities, rather than holding a regulatory exclusion attitude towards this model. For cryptocurrency concept stocks, Cboe's entry has dual implications: first, it further validates the market size and legitimacy of prediction markets; second, Cboe's institutional channels and Coinbase (the only licensed prediction market FCM by the CFTC) will compete in parallel under the same regulatory framework, leading to an increase in the valuation and policy attention of the entire track.Strive, Inc. (NASDAQ: $ASST) was cited in a market analysis report yesterday (pending independent confirmation from the official SEC 8-K document), stating that the company recently increased its holdings by approximately 759 BTC at an average price of about $65,850; based on this calculation, the company's BTC holdings have increased from 19,032 disclosed in the SEC 8-K on June 5 to about 19,791 (approximately $1.17 billion). This increase occurred against the backdrop of Bitcoin continuously declining from the $65,000 to $66,000 range. Strive and Strategy (which also increased its holdings by 520 BTC during the same period) are among the few DAT companies that maintained active purchases during the reporting period; CEO Matt Cole previously positioned the continuous increase in BTC as a "differentiated catch-up" to Strategy's scale advantage rather than a pure directional bet on price. The company holds approximately $139.2 million in cash, and the capital balance between the 9.5% annual dividend obligation of preferred stock (SATA) and BTC purchases is currently the most noteworthy balance sheet risk point.

The predictive market analysis platform Polysights announced the completion of a $1.5 million financing round, with investors including YZi Labs S3, Maven 11 Capital, Varys Capital, Contribution Capital, and Edge Ventures.Polysights is building an automated and intelligent infrastructure for predictive markets. According to reports, Polysights is based on artificial intelligence technology and is aimed at individual traders and various institutions, enabling wallet-associated cluster screening, market anomaly detection, and the ability to analyze various trading strategies in predictive markets.

According to The Block, Bitcoin miner revenue continues to decline, with the 7-day moving average dropping to about $30,000,000 per day, down from over $50,000,000 last summer. The contribution from transaction fees has become negligible, at less than $250,000 per day. The current trading price of BTC is about $62,500, significantly lower than JPMorgan's estimated production cost of around $78,000, a gap that has persisted for five months, the longest in this cycle. Production costs have historically been seen as a soft price floor, and currently, about 20% of miners are operating at a loss.Network-level pressure is becoming evident. Over the past six months, the beta value of mining difficulty relative to BTC price has risen to 0.62, with high-cost miners switching off their machines based on price fluctuations rather than continuing to operate at a loss. In the second week of June, difficulty decreased by 10%, marking the second similar adjustment this year. Publicly listed mining companies have sold over 32,000 BTC in the first quarter to cover operating costs, rather than further reducing production capacity.

According to official news, the Web3 smart data analysis platform AiTraceRoot has completed a strategic financing of $3.5 million, with participation from Castrum Capital, Becker Ventures, Coinvestor, and Gemhead Capital. The funds raised will be used for product research and development, security upgrades, large-scale data model training, and collaborative development within the BNB Chain ecosystem. AiTraceRoot is a smart data analysis support platform aimed at the Web3 field, dedicated to providing intelligent data analysis services for global Web3 users.

NextGen Venture founder Jason Huang posted on platform X that Strategy (MSTR) issued new shares through an ATM last week, which did not actually increase the per-share Bitcoin holdings but instead diluted its mNAV multiple. He pointed out that the number of Bitcoins corresponding to each share is decreasing, and the official mNAV metric has dropped to 1.1 times, based on the most recent disclosure before last week's decline. Huang warned that once MSTR's performance relative to Bitcoin lags by another 10% (negative Alpha), each issuance through the ATM will further dilute the per-share Bitcoin holdings, and at that point, the death spiral will truly begin; the recent decline is merely an appetizer.

The price of Bitcoin has retreated to $62,000, and the second day of chip stock sell-offs is dragging down the crypto market, with over $1.5 billion in leveraged positions being liquidated.

Analyst Murphy stated that there is strong support around $60,000 before and after the expiration of Bitcoin options on June 26, making it difficult to break below that level easily. In the corresponding Gamma chart, the range of $59,000 to $62,000 shows a clear positive Gamma, and the hedging behavior of market makers will suppress volatility, making it easier for the price to be fixed in that area. At the same time, there is a significant accumulation of Put options with a strike price of $60,000, totaling up to 4,620 BTC, forming a strong Put wall that will generate substantial buying power and provide solid support as the price approaches. Historically, when similar options structures have appeared, they often correspond to phase bottoms or the end of pullback stages. Analyst Murphy believes that $60,000 remains a strong support level in the short term and is cautiously optimistic about the short-term market performance.

According to analyst Darkfost, the realized price of short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin is currently about $74,800, while BTC has been running below this cost line for eight consecutive months, with short-term holders still generally under pressure from losses. Currently, the average unrealized loss for STH is about 14.4%, a significant improvement from over 34% in February of this year.It is noteworthy that the cost price for STH has decreased from $95,700 to $74,800, indicating that some short-term holders have continued to accumulate during the decline, thereby lowering the overall holding cost. In this cycle, the unrealized profit for STH peaked at 47% in March 2024, while when BTC reached an all-time high in October 2025, this metric was only 11%, showing that the market's profit level is significantly weaker than in previous stages. The STH cost price of $74,800 remains a key resistance level. If BTC can regain this level, it may indicate a positive shift in market structure; however, before that, this area is more likely to become a selling pressure zone for short-term holders looking to break even.

According to Fortune, New York blockchain data analytics company Allium announced the completion of a $40,000,000 Series B financing round, led by Amplify Partners, with participation from Kleiner Perkins and Theory Ventures.Allium focuses on cleaning and integrating complex on-chain data, providing services to institutional clients such as Visa, the Federal Reserve, Coinbase, and a16z's crypto division.

According to an analysis by Tommy, there is a significant gap in valuation and revenue conversion for Chinese open-source AI companies, with their price-to-sales ratio (P/S) far exceeding that of leading counterparts in the United States.Data shows that Zhipu, which developed the GLM 5.2 model, currently has a market value of approximately $137 billion, but its revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is about $107 million, resulting in a price-to-sales ratio as high as 1280 times; MiniMax has a market value of about $23 billion, with a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 290 times. In contrast, the valuations of leading AI laboratories in the United States are more solid, with OpenAI (valued at about $852 billion) and Anthropic (valued at about $965 billion) having price-to-sales ratios of only 34 times and 21 times, respectively.It is believed that due to overseas users' concerns about data privacy, they are unwilling to send data directly to China, resulting in the massive demand for Chinese AI companies not being converted into actual API revenue, leading to significant profit loss to overseas third-party inference service providers (such as OpenRouter, etc.). To support their current high valuations, Chinese AI companies urgently need to prove their data non-retention mechanisms and capture the market at low prices, or explore revenue-sharing and initial licensing collaborations with overseas inference platforms to expand their actual revenue scale.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin has dropped about 40% since Strategy launched the Bitcoin financing tool STRC. STRC has fallen below the $100 par value, sparking discussions in the market about the sustainability of Michael Saylor's Bitcoin "flywheel" model. Strategy currently holds over 846,000 BTC, but the recent buying pace has noticeably slowed. Data shows that the company increased its holdings by 1,550 BTC worth approximately $101 million in the week ending June 8; in the week ending June 15, it added another 1,587 BTC worth about $100 million. In contrast, in April 2026, it bought 34,164 BTC in a single week, amounting to $2.54 billion, indicating a significant decrease in recent capital inflows.Meanwhile, Strategy previously sold 32 BTC to meet dividend obligations. Although this amount is small compared to its overall holdings, the market believes this indicates that when STRC's financing efficiency declines, the company's cash flow pressure may increase. STRC was originally designed as a preferred stock tool trading close to the $100 par value, attracting investors through dividend adjustments and helping Strategy raise funds to purchase Bitcoin. Currently, the STRC price has fallen to a historical low, having once dropped to $82.53, and then closed at $88.59, about 13% below par value. Critics argue that the STRC price falling below par value means that Strategy's financing channels are under pressure.Long-time Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff described STRC as "like a typical centralized Ponzi structure," believing that the model relies on continuous financing or selling Bitcoin to maintain operations. Crypto trader DonAlt also questioned STRC's recent performance, stating that its trading behavior resembles a "Ponzi structure." However, some analysts believe that the decline in STRC is more due to leveraged liquidations rather than a deterioration in Strategy's fundamentals. STRC had previously maintained a price around $99 to $100, attracting investors to use leveraged trading, and the price falling below this critical level triggered forced liquidations, exacerbating the decline.Analyst Scott Melker pointed out that STRC's current yield has actually increased due to the discount. Since dividends are calculated based on a $100 liquidation preference, if the STRC price is $90, the 11.5% annualized dividend corresponds to an actual yield of about 12.8%; if the price drops to $85, the yield could exceed 13%. Strategy is expected to announce the next STRC dividend adjustment on June 30. The market is currently focused on whether STRC's discount will persist and whether Strategy's model of relying on capital markets for financing to continue increasing BTC holdings can remain stable.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin, seen as a "rival" to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is facing ongoing pressure as the market focuses on the imminent breakout of the Dollar Index from a 13-month trading range. Data shows that Bitcoin has weakened for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around $63,900, with the overall cryptocurrency market also under pressure.Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.26% to 100.66, continuing the previous trading day's increase of 0.8%, and is nearing the edge of a key breakout range. Analysts point out that if this structural breakout is confirmed, it typically triggers trend-following funds to further boost the dollar's performance. Historical data shows a clear negative correlation between Bitcoin and the Dollar Index, with a stronger dollar usually exerting pressure on dollar-denominated risk assets. The market believes that the Fed's hawkish stance has strengthened the logic of dollar support and may further drive funds towards safe-haven assets and dollar-denominated assets.

Bitcoin, seen as the "rival" to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is facing ongoing pressure as the market focuses on the imminent breakout of the DXY from a 13-month trading range.Data shows that Bitcoin has weakened for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around $63,900, with the overall cryptocurrency market also under pressure. Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.26% to 100.66, continuing the previous trading day's increase of 0.8%, and is nearing the edge of a key breakout range.Analysis indicates that if this structural breakout is confirmed, it will typically trigger trend-following funds to further boost the dollar's performance. Historical data shows a clear negative correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index; a stronger dollar usually suppresses risk assets priced in dollars. The market believes that the Fed's hawkish stance has reinforced the logic of dollar support and may further drive funds towards safe-haven assets and dollar-denominated assets.