analysis

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that within less than a month, the open interest of BTC on the Binance platform has decreased from 10.6 billion dollars to 8.8 billion dollars, a drop of 17%. Meanwhile, its 180-day moving average has risen from 8.4 billion dollars to 8.6 billion dollars. As the open interest falls below the moving average, new signals of deleveraging are emerging in the market. In a bull market phase, this signal typically appears when market corrections are nearing their end, reflecting that traders are reducing their leveraged exposure, which includes both voluntary liquidations and forced liquidations due to insufficient margin.Aside from the fact that this process may last for months in a bear market, a similar signal last appeared in June of this year when the BTC price was below 60,000 dollars, subsequently rebounding to above 87,000 dollars, with an increase of over 45%. Currently, as the open interest declines, the market is also experiencing large-scale liquidations. Low volatility seems to encourage some traders to take on higher risks to compensate for the insufficient returns brought about by the narrowing price fluctuations, making them more susceptible to market reversal shocks. Over the past three months, the monthly liquidation scale on Binance has reached new highs since 2021: over 1.4 billion dollars in August, 1.1 billion dollars in September, and 1.3 billion dollars in October. This trend appears to continue into November, with the liquidation scale exceeding 520 million dollars before the end of the first half of this month.These data highlight the potential losses that leveraged trading can bring to investors. In a market environment with low volatility and shrinking trading volume, blindly increasing risk exposure due to a lack of patience can quickly lead to heavy costs. However, the deleveraging phase also helps improve the market environment. Reducing leveraged positions can lower the risk of cascading liquidations, allowing spot demand to play a greater role in market pricing, thereby helping Bitcoin establish a more robust market structure.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the Binance hacker has transferred or laundered nearly 900 million dollars in funds, out of an estimated total of 6.34 billion dollars in stolen funds: 891.37 million dollars may have been transferred or laundered; 2.85 billion dollars is still under the hacker's control; 2.6 billion dollars has been frozen.In the past 2 to 3 days, the hacker has been actively transferring funds through THORChain and Chainflip.

The proposed rule allowing alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies to enter 401(k) retirement plans has been submitted to the White House for final review on November 5. The proposal does not limit the types of cryptocurrencies that can be included, nor does it set a minimum market capitalization threshold, meaning that altcoins and small to mid-cap tokens may also have the opportunity to enter U.S. retirement investment plans in the future.However, industry insiders point out that asset management firms still need to comprehensively assess performance, fees, liquidity, valuation, benchmark indicators, and investment complexity when selecting investment targets. Bitcoin and Ethereum, with their mature markets and investment products, are expected to gain access first, while small to mid-cap tokens may face higher barriers due to insufficient historical data, limited liquidity, and lack of reliable valuation benchmarks.In addition, experts expect that cryptocurrency ETFs and managed funds will enter 401(k) plans before direct holding products, as the former are easier to adapt to existing custody and account management systems. The industry anticipates that some cryptocurrency investment options may begin to be implemented in 2027, with further expansion of coverage expected around 2028.The proposal still needs to complete the White House review and subsequent legislative processes, and it will not completely exempt retirement plan managers from fiduciary responsibilities and litigation risks.

The Macro Paper account published on platform X, stating that according to the data compiled by the company, the seven tech giants in the US stock market (Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple) have invested approximately 766 billion dollars this year, corresponding to a total market value evaporation of about 4.85 trillion dollars since the peak in 2026, which translates to approximately 6.33 dollars in market value evaporated for every 1 dollar invested.Breaking it down, Alphabet invested about 200 billion dollars, with a market value evaporation of approximately 1.62 trillion dollars; Nvidia invested about 7.4 billion dollars, with a market value evaporation of approximately 1.49 trillion dollars; Meta invested about 140 billion dollars, with a market value evaporation of approximately 501 billion dollars; Tesla invested about 20 billion dollars, with a market value evaporation of approximately 475 billion dollars; Amazon invested about 220 billion dollars, with a market value evaporation of approximately 378 billion dollars; Microsoft invested about 170 billion dollars, with a market value evaporation of approximately 197 billion dollars; Apple invested about 9 billion dollars, with a market value evaporation of approximately 194 billion dollars.Editor's note: The above investment criteria and market value drawdown starting point are as stated by the account, and independent third-party comparison criteria have not yet been disclosed.

Coincheck announced that due to a malfunction of the external on-chain analysis service it uses, as of November 5th, 0:04 Japan time, there has been a delay in processing cryptocurrency deposit and withdrawal requests on the platform.To address the malfunction, Coincheck has temporarily stopped accepting new cryptocurrency withdrawal requests and has canceled some withdrawal requests that have not yet been processed. Some requests will be temporarily retained and will be re-evaluated once the system is restored.Coincheck stated that this incident was caused by an external service failure, and there has been no unauthorized access to the platform, nor has there been any security incident affecting user assets. User-held assets remain securely stored. Canceled withdrawal requests have had their corresponding assets returned to the user's Coincheck account balance, while deposit processing delays are still ongoing. The platform will gradually process requests once the relevant systems are restored and will announce the service recovery time separately.

Some observers of the Federal Reserve believe that Trump's strong opposition from voters in the midterm elections may alleviate the political pressure faced by Federal Reserve Chair Waller, allowing him to reduce political interference and focus on controlling inflation. Voters have listed the cost of living as one of their top concerns, fundamentally changing the political landscape surrounding the Federal Reserve.Since Trump's re-election in 2024, he has been exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve and its interest rate decisions, repeatedly calling for rate cuts, supporting an unprecedented criminal investigation into the renovation of the Federal Reserve's office building, and attempting to remove a sitting Federal Reserve governor. Against this backdrop, Trump chose Waller to lead the Federal Reserve in May of this year, after Waller had unusually shifted to support rate cuts. This has raised concerns among Democrats, who fear that the new chair may have agreed to adjust monetary policy according to the president's wishes.Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, stated that in fact, if the election results prompt Trump to end the conflict with Iran and abandon further tariff increases, the Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates again at all.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a live broadcast themed "Gaps, Leverage, Stop Loss, a Practical Checklist for Ordinary Traders" today at 8 PM. At that time, crypto KOLs including Crypto.0824, Zhu Erdan, HiSeven, Mo Laotou, and Jiu Ge BTC will discuss trading strategies under the high volatility of the earnings season.At the same time, the guests will combine their practical experience to explore how ordinary traders can maintain trading discipline and enhance risk response and strategy execution capabilities amid increasing market uncertainty.

David Chalian, the head and political director of CNN's Washington bureau, interprets that there has been a significant change in the power structure in the United States. The Democratic Party has taken control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and the last two years of Trump's term will be completely different from the first two years. Voters have sent a strong rejection of Trump in the elections, with presidential approval ratings underwater even in key Senate states and deep red states.The Democratic Party has secured seats in Texas, Ohio, Iowa, South Carolina, and other states, where Trump won by double digits just two years ago and had victories in all three of his presidential campaigns. Factors contributing to this shift include the alienation of independent voters, the return of Latino and young voters to the Democratic Party, Trump's failed economic governance, and public concerns about the cost of living, all of which have become important reasons for the Republican Party's midterm election losses.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that on-chain data shows that the "seller exhaustion model" indicator for Bitcoin has dropped to its lowest level since the bear market began. This model measures whether sellers still have enough chips to continue pushing prices down by comparing the market's profitable supply ratio with the average monthly volatility.As BTC has corrected more than 10% from its previous high, short-term profit-taking in the market has basically concluded, and selling momentum has significantly weakened. Historically, this sharp decline in selling pressure typically aids in the formation of market bottoms. The analyst also warned that reduced selling pressure does not equate to an immediate market rebound. The current core contradiction lies in the fact that although sellers have calmed down, the market still lacks sufficient "new demand" to drive prices upward. Until substantial buying capital returns, Bitcoin's upward potential remains limited.

On-chain analyst @FabianoSolana posted that suspected North Korean hackers transferred approximately $1.46 million through the Jupiter Lend and Circle cross-chain bridge. According to his analysis, the funds were initially transferred from a Solana wallet address marked by the FBI (starting with AffzFD), then dispersed to about 35 temporary addresses via intermediary wallets before being re-aggregated and deposited into Jupiter Lend. A few minutes later, a similar amount was withdrawn by another new wallet.Subsequently, the funds were exchanged for USDC and transferred out of Solana through the Circle cross-chain bridge, returning to a new address on the Solana network via Noble and dYdX. The related funds were transferred out in approximately 16 transactions totaling about $1.4634 million, and then returned in 19 transactions, with a difference of about $10 between the amounts transferred out and returned. According to the analyst, the related funds have not been frozen.In response, Jupiter's Chief Operating Officer Kash Dhanda stated that based on the current investigation results, the attackers only performed deposit and withdrawal operations through Jupiter Lend, which is different from the previous Aave incident where stolen stablecoins were borrowed and could not freeze the assets. The flow of related funds can still be fully tracked through LP tokens, and the relationship of the funds has not been severed, so it cannot be concluded that the attackers used Jupiter Lend to launder the source of the funds. The Jupiter security team has been monitoring the flow of related funds in real-time. As of the time of publication, Circle has not publicly responded to the reasons for the aforementioned fund transfer and why they have not been frozen.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's market performance before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections has broken the trend observed in the previous three elections. As of November 3, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $76,990, about 5.2% higher than the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $73,169, indicating that its long-term trend remains above the average.In contrast, during the U.S. midterm elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin's price was approximately 35%, 9%, and 22% below the 200-day average, respectively, all during bear market phases. The report noted that although Bitcoin broke through $126,000 in October 2025, the current bear market has seen relatively shallow declines, mainly concentrated in January and February of this year.Martin Lee, head of research at DWF Labs, stated that historical data shows Bitcoin typically exhibits volatility or slight weakness in the initial months following midterm elections, but has achieved gains in the subsequent 12 months. However, short-term trends may still be influenced by election results, ETF fund flows, U.S. employment data, and geopolitical risks.Additionally, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index BVIV has broken through a descending triangle pattern, indicating an increase in market expectations for short-term volatility.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, a certain entity in the European Union is suspected of having over $106 million in cryptocurrency assets stolen. The related address previously spent $62.97 million on purchasing 27,553 ETH, with an average purchase price of $2,286.On-chain investigator ZachXBT previously stated that the entity is suspected of losing assets from multiple centralized exchange accounts, with the involved funds withdrawn in the form of USDC and USDT. The fund flow chart disclosed by Lookonchain connects the aforementioned purchase address with addresses related to this incident.

According to the cryptocurrency media Coin Bureau, the bottoms of Bitcoin in the past three cycles appeared shortly after the U.S. midterm elections, with 71 days after the election in 2014, 39 days in 2018, and 13 days in 2022.Coin Bureau stated that the next U.S. midterm elections are on November 3. If this pattern repeats, the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027 may be a time window worth paying attention to for the next cycle bottom of Bitcoin.

Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn stated that the adjusted discount of Bitcoin on Coinbase relative to Binance's USDT has expanded to the largest level this year. However, Binance's previous suspension of withdrawals limited cross-platform arbitrage activities, making this price difference difficult to accurately reflect the true demand signals in the U.S. market.With Binance having resumed withdrawals, attention should be paid to whether the price difference between the two major exchanges will gradually narrow.